Teams Wanting To Pick 1st in 2020.....

[BuffAlone]

12 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Doesn't matter.  Fans will point to him coming off the bench to lead Alabama to a title and his stats from last season (43 TDs, 6 INTs) as justification for tanking for him.

JA made big strides last year. McBeane are not gonna operate like Arizona. I think the fans know that, and thus will not be clamouring to start over after the preseason knowing the investment  the Bills have made in JA and the improvements to the team in general. JMO

Its called learning curve, not give you one preseason and you're out...

Edited May 24, 2019 by BuffAlone

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, BuffAlone said:

JA made big strides last year. McBeane are not gonna operate like Arizona. I think the fans know that, and thus will not be clamouring to start over after the preseason knowing the investment  the Bills have made in JA and the improvements to the team in general. JMO

Its called learning curve, not give you one preseason and you're out...

Agreed but you see a noticeable improvement in year 2.  I think it’s insane how quickly we give up on young QBs but it is the reality.  As Sal C said, if Allen doesn’t have a Mitch Tribusky type year, it might be tome to get a little worried.  

[Bill from NYC]

22 minutes ago, mannc said:

Very much agree.  He’s played poorly in the few games in which Alabama was not able to completely out-match its opponent.  I’m not even convinced Tua’s a first-rounder.

Yes, he really sucked against LSU, Auburn and Oklahoma.

[BuffAlone]

24 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Agreed but you see a noticeable improvement in year 2.  I think it’s insane how quickly we give up on young QBs but it is the reality.  As Sal C said, if Allen doesn’t have a Mitch Tribusky type year, it might be tome to get a little worried.  

Agreed on that premise. But not after preseason

[mannc]

36 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Yes, he really sucked against LSU, Auburn and Oklahoma.

I would say that talent-wise, Auburn and Oklahoma (especially on defense) were thoroughly outmatched by Alabama.  (I did not see the LSU game, but I'll concede that LSU has plenty of NFL-caliber talent.)   The fact is, against the two best teams Alabama played last year (GA and Clemson), he played poorly.  If I was an NFL scout, I'd be concerned about that.  In general, I think Alabama QBs are tough to evaluate because the talent level on that team is through the roof every single year.   

[bobs0108]

I think Lawrence and Herbert are better NFL prospects than Tua. I still like Tua but think he’ll be taken top 10 maybe even 5. 

[Albany,n.y.]

I don't see the Raiders tanking at all.  They have 3 #1 picks & Antonio Brown added with a QB who had quite a streak of games with no INTs in the middle of the season.  If anything they want to be seen as an up & coming team and come into Vegas as a contender, not starting some unproven rookie.  I think that Gruden likes Carr a lot more after seeing him play a year than the out of step national media is reporting.  

 

I don't see any team thinking of tanking right now.  Look at Miami.  They took out a cheap lottery ticket on Rosen & if he plays like a top 10 drafted QB with 2nd year improvement they could be very solid for years to come.  As far as the worst teams doing it naturally, I still see Arizona with an undersized rookie QB & still a pretty bad O-line being the NFL's worst along with one NFC east team, either the Giants if Eli doesn't show some "back class" or Washington if either or both have to start their rookie QBs by mid season or earlier.  

 

It's amazing the different approaches Arizona & the Bills took.  They both had rookie QBs & horrible OLs.  Arizona signed 1 decent free agent (G Sweezy), and threw only late rounders at the O line: waiting until the 6th & 7th rounds to draft rookie OL help & trading a 6th to Pittsburgh for an OT the Steelers didn't want.  Then they bailed on their now 2nd year QB, because they saw something shiny & new.  The Bills signed 6 veteran free agent OL men & spent a #2 on a 7th new man.   They also signed/drafted offensive skill positions in order to go all in on their now 2nd year QB. That's why Arizona will be drafting #1 while the Bills are in the playoffs even though there was only a 3 win difference between the teams in 2018.  

[Cornette's Commentary]

1 hour ago, BuffAlone said:

JA made big strides last year. McBeane are not gonna operate like Arizona. I think the fans know that, and thus will not be clamouring to start over after the preseason knowing the investment  the Bills have made in JA and the improvements to the team in general. JMO

Its called learning curve, not give you one preseason and you're out...

Then, you don't know this fanbase very well.  Last year, Howard Simon posted an article around October/November where he said "we need to seriously start talking about Tyree Jackson if Allen doesn't show improvement down the stretch."  That's a long-time member of the local media who openly stated that he was willing to give up on Allen after 1 year (granted, Howard hated the Allen pick and went so far as to say that he "didn't want to talk about it" on the morning after last year's draft).

One interception from Allen in pre-season will be enough to have fans and media going "oh, boy.  who are the top QBs coming out in 2020?"

[NewEra]

I expect Brady to retire after this season so

the pats can start Jared stidham 16 games and lose just enough games to get the #1 pick and replace Brady with Lawrence.  If Lawrence isn’t a Bill, I just pray that he’s in the NFCz. Preferably NOT IN THE AFCE.  That would really suck.  

[BuffAlone]

5 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Then, you don't know this fanbase very well.  Last year, Howard Simon posted an article around October/November where he said "we need to seriously start talking about Tyree Jackson if Allen doesn't show improvement down the stretch."  That's a long-time member of the local media who openly stated that he was willing to give up on Allen after 1 year (granted, Howard hated the Allen pick and went so far as to say that he "didn't want to talk about it" on the morning after last year's draft).

One interception from Allen in pre-season will be enough to have fans and media going "oh, boy.  who are the top QBs coming out in 2020?"

Dont know the fan base very well? Howard Simon said something last year? ??

[Bill from NYC]

28 minutes ago, mannc said:

I would say that talent-wise, Auburn and Oklahoma (especially on defense) were thoroughly outmatched by Alabama.  (I did not see the LSU game, but I'll concede that LSU has plenty of NFL-caliber talent.)   The fact is, against the two best teams Alabama played last year (GA and Clemson), he played poorly.  If I was an NFL scout, I'd be concerned about that.  In general, I think Alabama QBs are tough to evaluate because the talent level on that team is through the roof every single year.   

He didn't play his best vs. Georgia and Clemson but you know that he was hampered by a pretty serious ankle injury, as well as some other injuries.

 

The Tide (imo) is going to focus a bit more on running the football this season this season, whereas Saban will get back closer to his "roots" for lack of a better term.

That offense will be a sight to behold.

[mannc]

18 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

He didn't play his best vs. Georgia and Clemson but you know that he was hampered by a pretty serious ankle injury, as well as some other injuries.

 

The Tide (imo) is going to focus a bit more on running the football this season this season, whereas Saban will get back closer to his "roots" for lack of a better term.

That offense will be a sight to behold.

I did not know Tua was injured for those games. 

 

I have to say, the ridiculous talent that Alabama is going to be rolling out there every saturday (especially at WR) might make Tua even harder for NFL scouts to evaluate.  I mean, he's going to be throwing all day to guys who are "college open" and who can take it to the house on any given play.    

Edited May 24, 2019 by mannc

[Kirby Jackson]

My dad swears that Tua is as good pre-snap and with his play fakes as any QB he’s ever seen at this point. My dad is 68 and has watched A LOT of football. When he has a strong opinion on a guy he’s usually right. Tua is going to be a really, really good pro. He may never be great because he has some size limitations but reminds me so much of Russell Wilson (who I love). He’s smart, accurate, athletic and will be experienced when he enters the draft. It will be a MASSIVE surprise to me if Tua isn’t a really good NFL QB. 

52 minutes ago, mannc said:

I did not know Tua was injured for those games. 

 

I have to say, the ridiculous talent that Alabama is going to be rolling out there every saturday (especially at WR) might make Tua even harder for NFL scouts to evaluate.  I mean, he's going to be throwing all day to guys who are "college open" and who can take it to the house on any given play.    

His WR’s will be ridiculous. I’d trade our group of WRs for theirs yesterday. 

[Malazan]

The Raiders don't make sense as a team that wants it. They might end up with it (I still think that's unlikely), but the moves they're making are not tank moves even if they seem like bad moves.

[JoeF]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

My dad swears that Tua is as good pre-snap and with his play fakes as any QB he’s ever seen at this point. My dad is 68 and has watched A LOT of football. When he has a strong opinion on a guy he’s usually right. Tua is going to be a really, really good pro. He may never be great because he has some size limitations but reminds me so much of Russell Wilson (who I love). He’s smart, accurate, athletic and will be experienced when he enters the draft. It will be a MASSIVE surprise to me if Tua isn’t a really good NFL QB. 

His WR’s will be ridiculous. I’d trade our group of WRs for theirs yesterday. 

 

Kirby, I haven't watched nearly as much football as your dad, but I agree with him.  The young man has an amazing ability to read defenses at the line.  He must work his ass off in the film room and his instincts are off the charts. 

 

I think that alone translates and to Bill's original post-- that has to be attractive to Gruden, Gase, Zac Taylor in Cincy and the brain trust for the Dolphins.  Attractive enough to tank the last half of a year.  Speaking specifically of the Raiders, Carr forces the ball a lot and is not always careful with how he handles the rock (12 fumbles last year and 45 over a 5-year career).  That ***** has to drive Gruden crazy. 

 

So, I think tanking enters a team's thinking about the halfway point of the season.   They firesale upcoming UFAs for picks and start to position themselves to get where they need to be in the draft to get the QB they want.  Beane executed this perfectly his first abbreviated off-season, even getting an early start with the Watkins and Darby trades.  The Dareus trade was the kicker.  Then McDermott screwed it up by making that group a playoff qualifier (way to go Coach...thanks for being so good at your job)....but they still managed to get the guy they wanted.

[TigerJ]

Miami is probably in the best position to tank.  I don't think they will do so deliberately, but their GM cleared the roster of players they don't think have a future with the team, even though some of those players could have made positive contributions in 2019.  I'm not positive they would pick Tua if they end up with the top spot.  A lot depends on what Rosen can do.  Unfortunately for Rosen, the circumstances in Miami might be even more stacked against success than they were in Arizona.  Fromm and Herbert might be as good as any QB prospect in the 2019 draft, and if Miami wanted more picks, they might have the opportunity to trade down and still get a very promising QB prospect.

[JoeF]

2 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

Miami is probably in the best position to tank.  I don't think they will do so deliberately, but their GM cleared the roster of players they don't think have a future with the team, even though some of those players could have made positive contributions in 2019.  I'm not positive they would pick Tua if they end up with the top spot.  A lot depends on what Rosen can do.  Unfortunately for Rosen, the circumstances in Miami might be even more stacked against success than they were in Arizona.  Fromm and Herbert might be as good as any QB prospect in the 2019 draft, and if Miami wanted more picks, they might have the opportunity to trade down and still get a very promising QB prospect.

This might be crazy, but I also think Darnold is on shaky ground this year too.  If the Jets have a bad start, I could see Gase wanting to toss out Darnold for Tua...I think our Josh is on much more stable ground than Darnold or Rosen when it comes to prospects for longevity with his current team. 

 

I never really thought about it before Rosen but rookie QBs on their first contract are really a tradeable and cut losses commodity in the slotting era...You may not get back huge value -- but the only way you are trading them is if you have a very high draft pick for a replacement.  From then, trading the existing guy like the Cards did with Rosen is just cutting your losses.

Edited May 24, 2019 by JoeF

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, JoeF said:

This might be crazy, but I also think Darnold is on shaky ground this year too.  If the Jets have a bad start, I could see Gase wanting to toss out Darnold for Tua...I think our Josh is on much more stable ground than Darnold or Rosen when it comes to prospects for longevity with his current team. 

 

I never really thought about it before Rosen but rookie QBs on their first contract are really a tradeable and cut losses commodity in the slotting era...You may not get back huge value -- but the only way you are trading them is if you have a very high draft pick for a replacement.  From then, trading the existing guy like the Cards did with Rosen is just cutting your losses.

I think that this is potentially a “new trend.” I don’t think it will be everywhere but we just saw the first team in 30 years to take QBs in round 1 back-to-back. The slotting is a huge reason why as are regime changes. I don’t think that we will see teams like Jacksonville staying married to a guy like Bortles for as long as they did. The leashes are getting shorter and now there is some precedent with a regime change. If Murray plays well it will further embolden teams. I bet we see this 3 or 4 more times (at least) in the next decade. 

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

The "Matt Barkley" potential on Tua is very high IMO, ie media builds him up to be sure #1 pick years in advance, then ends up going much later.

He has much better tools than Barkley 

 

someone will be be intrigued by his gunslinging abilities 

[TigerJ]

Anything is possible, Joe.  I know Arizona's situation was unique in that they just signed a new coach who is committed to an offensive system that to this point has not existed in the NFL in it's pure form.  Andy Reid incorporated some elements because Pat Mahomes is is QB, but Kingsbury wanted the best QB he could get for his system, and Rosen was not it.   I don't know who is the Jets' OC but I think Gase is philosophically in the West Coast family.  At this point there is no reason to think Darnold won't be able to handle a Gase offense, but if for some reason Darnold is just awful or Gase is arrogant enough to lust after his own QB despite Darnold proving to be a solid starter in 2019, he could decide to cut bait and trade him.  I don't think it is the most likely future for the Jets, but I can't rule it out.