Is There Any Position That The Bills Got Worse In The Offseason?

[hemma]

Clay is now being paid slightly more than he’s worth, based on last year’s performance.

41st in the league .... bout right.

[The Jokeman]

38 minutes ago, ganesh said:

They did re-sign Gaines and drafted that safety from Florida.   So technically they have improved from last year. 

 

The position where they have gone from the known to the unknown is  TE.

We also signed Kevin Johnson and a S/LB from Seattle.

[NoSaint]

Our top 7 cap hits last year were dareus, wood, Tyrod, Benjamin, clay, McCoy, and Hughes. 

 

If if you show me another team that got less out of their biggest hits I’d be shocked.

 

getting 50m in dead money back and lots of draft assets should result in a much improved roster. Not improving across the board would be catastrophic failure. 

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

4 hours ago, BubbaT said:

Can we watch a real game first before  commenting? All they are now are names on paper and projections from past performance. No idea how they shake out this year. 

are you new here?

[Ethan in Cleveland]

DE - Hughes is a year older and they did next to nothing to improve the back-ups.  

OLB - Again, Lorax is older and was not very good for 12 of the 16 games last year.  Milano is coming off surgery that he should recover from but one never knows. And the draft only netted a small LB that can't tackle.

TE is a bit of a mixed bag - Only Smith is close to the blocker that Clay was but he is a liability in the pass game.  Clay's pass catching eroded terribly last year, but Kroft is now just as injury prone as Clay and the rest are unproven.  

Back-up MLB is a mess too but it is hard to argue it is any worse than it was last year.

QB - with the addition of Barkley the team is much better than the start of the 2018 season.  Are they worse without Anderson?  Probably not but I've been in the camp of only keeping two QBs so I really don't care who they have in for OTAs and training camp. 

[Rocket94]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

I love Oliver, but let's not sell K. Williams short. The guy had 48.5 career sacks as an interior defensive lineman. Aaron Donald's come around every 20 years or so. Not quite sure where 48.5 sacks ranks all time among DT's, but I'd guess it's in the top 25. John Randle had 137.5 which is INSANE. One of the more underrated players in the league's history. After that, I'm thinking 48.5 is pretty big. Not HOF big, but nothing to dismiss. 

Randall was an amazing high motor, tough and vocal player...not bad for an "undersized" DL.

[Passepartout]

Yeah as h was really good Randall. Tough and clutch. Very few bright spots.

[Freddie's Dead]

I wouldn't say worse, but the "additions" at WR were more like a lateral move.  Let's hope they're better than they look on paper.

[Nelius]

15 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

I wouldn't say worse, but the "additions" at WR were more like a lateral move.  Let's hope they're better than they look on paper.

 

Added: Cole Beasley, John Brown, Andre Roberts, Duke Williams, David Sills

Lost: Kelvin Benjamin and Terrelle Pryor?

 

You've lost me. 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

2 hours ago, hemma said:

I have no idea how we will replace Clay’s 184 receiving yards.

11.5 yards per game.  What a monstrous loss and don’t even get me started on Logan Thomas.

Agreed, it's like mountain climbing without spikes.

[metzelaars_lives]

7 hours ago, r00tabaga said:

TE

OLB

DAnderson retiring hurts a little too.

Surely you can’t be serious.

[Rocket94]

2 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

We also signed Kevin Johnson and a S/LB from Seattle.

Johnson is a good player when He is not injured. I am really hoping that he can contribute and stay healthy this year.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Rocket94

[Buffalophil1948]

Our draft position in going to suck next year. Figuring late 20's at best

[Ronin]

8 hours ago, Irv said:

I really can't think of one.  Maybe it's a sign of the prior years purges and the team sucked last year, but I think we have a GM that knows what he is doing. 

 

I'm not sure I see an upgrade at DT.  Lotulolei as a depth player is no loss and was a horrible signing in hindsight, but losing Kyle will be big and replacing him with Phillips a/o an unproven Oliver isn't a given.  Lotulolei didn't get the job done and he's an expensive backup.  

 

Also not sure that the RB situation is improved.  A small-school diminutive RB that put up gawdy numbers against competition that he won't see in the NFL, ala Zay Jones, coupled with Shady who didn't play well last season and the oldest RB in the league also is no given.  

 

WRs are an upgrade but no one's going to confuse the group with being above-average, at least no objective person.  Among the entire WR collective they've posted a single 1,000 yard season, barely.  None of our WRs are prolific TD scorers or even close.  Again, not sure how much of an upgrade that is.  

 

The OL was upgraded but by how much is the question.  Again, no objective person is going to mistake that OL for one that's much more than marginally above average.  Everyone talks about Nsecke like he's great, but he came from a horrible offense and in five seasons has only 16 starts, only 5 of which were last season.  We'll likely have four new OL-men that have never played together including one rookie and a Center known for injuries the past two seasons with nothing of note behind him on the roster.  I think it would have been much wiser to have drafted Risner instead of Ford, who graded better in pass protection, comparably at minimum, but more importantly has experience playing C.  What, Bodine if Morse goes down?  That's hardly encouraging.  

 

At TE with Kroft having sustained a serious injury we're reliant upon a rookie that has never scored a TD.  Upgrade?  

 

Lorax, who's starting, is a year older and well beyond his prime at 36.  His position alone is not an upgrade as a result.  

 

Also, one has to ask, since Beane/McD are just now getting around to rebuilding the OL, why haven't questions arisen as to why that has taken three seasons to address even if it is better, which according to PFF's ratings of the players is only marginally better and primarily only in run blocking.  In the prior two drafts they've only drafted two OL-men, Teller late in round 5, who appears to be going nowhere already, and Dawkins late in round 2.  

 

In order for the current roster to be an upgrade, backups like Nsecke have to play above-average as a starter when he's only served as a backup for five seasons to date;  

aged players like Gore and Lorax have to not show continued signs of age; 

Shady has to prove that last year was not age-related as he enters his post-prime;  

Singletary, who played against second-rate competition in college, will have to play above-average in the NFL when against the only power-5 competition he faced in college he had 44 carries for 162 yards for a 3.7 ypc avg. and 2 TDs in four games, and to do so will have to overcome his diminutive status;  (watching his video, I don't see NFL speed, when he looks fast it's only against players that have little to no chance of ever playing in the NFL.  His best game was Oklahoma this season which had a very mediocre rushing D and sent no one to the NFL from their front-7.)  He was also a completely different player when playing teams that featured OL-men that got drafted.  Prolific vs. lackluster.  Which will be the case in the NFL? 

Knox will have to start scoring TDs, something he hasn't done; 

Ford will have to play well immediately.  Even then, Dawkins & Nsecke at the Ts?  Upgrade?  Maybe, but if so not by much.  

Phillips and/or Oliver will have to make up for the loss of Kyle, not sure I see that happening;  

and lastly, Allen will have to put up at least average NFL passing numbers including at least a 2-1 TD/INT ratio, a 90+ rating up from 67, and limit total TOs.  

 

I mean it's fun to think about this time of year but it still has to come together.  

 

Things I wouldn't bet on:  

 

Morse making it thru an entire season, meaning that as of now Bodine will be playing some.  He's missed 14 of 32 games the past two seasons.  That alone could derail any OL progress.  

Oliver (small school), Ford, Singletary (small school), and Knox all playing well.  I'd be content if two of those players turned out to be above-average.  

Allen making the enormous leap from bottom-dwelling as a passer to above-average given his significant issues with reading Ds and checking down along with other mental issues.  Tough if not impossible stuff to coach.  

Offensive linemen that have typically played like average or slightly better than average on teams with poor offenses doing much more than that here, particularly together.  As they say, doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, ... Simply because they've changed uniforms doesn't change them as players contrary to popular opinions otherwise.  

Edited May 24, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[wppete]

38 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

I'm not sure I see an upgrade at DT.  Lotulolei as a depth player is no loss and was a horrible signing in hindsight, but losing Kyle will be big and replacing him with Phillips a/o an unproven Oliver isn't a given.  Lotulolei didn't get the job done and he's an expensive backup.  

 

Also not sure that the RB situation is improved.  A small-school diminutive RB that put up gawdy numbers against competition that he won't see in the NFL, ala Zay Jones, coupled with Shady who didn't play well last season and the oldest RB in the league also is no given.  

 

WRs are an upgrade but no one's going to confuse the group with being above-average, at least no objective person.  Among the entire WR collective they've posted a single 1,000 yard season, barely.  None of our WRs are prolific TD scorers or even close.  Again, not sure how much of an upgrade that is.  

 

The OL was upgraded but by how much is the question.  Again, no objective person is going to mistake that OL for one that's much more than marginally above average.  Everyone talks about Nsecke like he's great, but he came from a horrible offense and in five seasons has only 16 starts, only 5 of which were last season.  We'll likely have four new OL-men that have never played together including one rookie and a Center known for injuries the past two seasons with nothing of note behind him on the roster.  I think it would have been much wiser to have drafted Risner instead of Ford, who graded better in pass protection, comparably at minimum, but more importantly has experience playing C.  What, Bodine if Morse goes down?  That's hardly encouraging.  

 

At TE with Kroft having sustained a serious injury we're reliant upon a rookie that has never scored a TD.  Upgrade?  

 

Lorax, who's starting, is a year older and well beyond his prime at 36.  His position alone is not an upgrade as a result.  

 

Also, one has to ask, since Beane/McD are just now getting around to rebuilding the OL, why haven't questions arisen as to why that has taken three seasons to address even if it is better, which according to PFF's ratings of the players is only marginally better and primarily only in run blocking.  In the prior two drafts they've only drafted two OL-men, Teller late in round 5, who appears to be going nowhere already, and Dawkins late in round 2.  

 

In order for the current roster to be an upgrade, backups like Nsecke have to play above-average as a starter when he's only served as a backup for five seasons to date;  

aged players like Gore and Lorax have to not show continued signs of age; 

Shady has to prove that last year was not age-related as he enters his post-prime;  

Singletary, who played against second-rate competition in college, will have to play above-average in the NFL when against the only power-5 competition he faced in college he had 44 carries for 162 yards for a 3.7 ypc avg. and 2 TDs in four games, and to do so will have to overcome his diminutive status;  (watching his video, I don't see NFL speed, when he looks fast it's only against players that have little to no chance of ever playing in the NFL.  His best game was Oklahoma this season which had a very mediocre rushing D and sent no one to the NFL from their front-7.)  He was also a completely different player when playing teams that featured OL-men that got drafted.  Prolific vs. lackluster.  Which will be the case in the NFL? 

Knox will have to start scoring TDs, something he hasn't done; 

Ford will have to play well immediately.  Even then, Dawkins & Nsecke at the Ts?  Upgrade?  Maybe, but if so not by much.  

Phillips and/or Oliver will have to make up for the loss of Kyle, not sure I see that happening;  

and lastly, Allen will have to put up at least average NFL passing numbers including at least a 2-1 TD/INT ratio, a 90+ rating up from 67, and limit total TOs.  

 

I mean it's fun to think about this time of year but it still has to come together.  

 

Things I wouldn't bet on:  

 

Morse making it thru an entire season, meaning that as of now Bodine will be playing some.  He's missed 14 of 32 games the past two seasons.  That alone could derail any OL progress.  

Oliver (small school), Ford, Singletary (small school), and Knox all playing well.  I'd be content if two of those players turned out to be above-average.  

Allen making the enormous leap from bottom-dwelling as a passer to above-average given his significant issues with reading Ds and checking down along with other mental issues.  Tough if not impossible stuff to coach.  

Offensive linemen that have typically played like average or slightly better than average on teams with poor offenses doing much more than that here, particularly together.  As they say, doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, ... Simply because they've changed uniforms doesn't change them as players contrary to popular opinions otherwise.  

 

Damn!

[Ronin]

BTW, here is PFF's analysis of our OL at this point;   https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-examining-the-buffalo-bills-offensive-line-ahead-of-the-2019-nfl-season

 

I've excerpted and highlighted some of the data on what at present appear to be our five starters.  

 

C MITCH MORSE

Morse signed a four-year, $44.5 million contract with over $20 million of that being guaranteed this offseason after spending the first four seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs. Morse ranked 12th among centers last season with a 69.5 overall grade and his best season so far as a pro came back in 2016 when he earned a 74.6 overall grade across 1,075 offensive snaps.

Out of the 42 centers who’ve seen at least 1,000 offensive snaps over the past three seasons, Morse ranks 15th with a 72.9 overall grade across that stretch, and his 99.0 pass-blocking efficiency rating is tied with Travis Frederick for second-best. 

 

[Biggest upgrade but they failed to mention that he's missed 14 of 32 games the past two seasons due to injuries.  The biggest upgrade.]  

G QUINTON SPAIN

Spain signed a one-year, $2.05 million contract with Buffalo this offseason after spending his previous four seasons with the Tennessee Titans. Spain ranked 35th out of 77 qualified guards last season with a 62.3 overall grade and his best season thus far came back in 2016 when he earned an 84.2 overall grade across 821 offensive snaps. The four-year veteran has spent 99.4% of his career snaps at left guard.

Over the past three seasons, Spain ranks 23rd out of 86 guards who saw at least 1,000 offensive snaps over that stretch with a 72.9 overall grade, and his 97.3 pass-blocking efficiency ranks 39th.

 

[Rated around average in pass-blocking]  

T TY NSEKHE

Nsekhe signed a two-year contract worth up to $13 million with Buffalo this offseason after spending the past four seasons with the Washington Redskins. Nsekhe ranked 43rd among qualified tackles in 2018 with a 67.8 overall grade, and he was one of just 11 tackles to have both a pass-blocking and run-blocking grade north of 70.0.

Over the past three seasons, Nsekhe has played ample amounts of right tackle (132 snaps), left guard (203 snaps) and left tackle (721 snaps). During that stretch, there were 48 players who logged at least 600 snaps from the left tackle position, and among that group, Nsekhe ranked 24th with a 75.2 overall grade while his 96.4 pass-blocking efficiency also ranked 24th.

 

[Rated an average pass blocker as well]  

T DION DAWKINS

Dawkins is entering his third season with the Bills after Buffalo drafted him in the second round back in 2017. Dawkins ranked 39th out of 80 qualified tackles with a 69.4 overall grade last season, which was undoubtedly a step down from his rookie season when he ranked eighth among tackles with an 80.4 overall grade.

Looking at his career in full, Dawkins ranks 22nd out of 69 tackles who’ve seen at least 1,000 offensive snaps over the past two seasons with a 76.3 overall grade, and he ranks within the top 26 in both pass-blocking grade (77.9) and run-blocking grade (69.7). Dawkins has spent all but one offensive snap at left tackle so far as a pro, and he’s earned an overall grade of at least 70.0 in 13 different games throughout his two-year career.

 

[No change here.  Question is which Dawkins shows up, the rookie Dawkins or the second-year Dawkins.]  

T/G CODY FORD

Ford could end up winning a spot at either a tackle or guard position during training camp after the Bills selected him in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Ford saw 898 snaps at right tackle during his collegiate career at Oklahoma to go with 441 snaps at left guard (along with 24 at right guard), and he was a stalwart in pass protection at the right tackle spot last season, ranking fifth among 113 Power-5 tackles who saw at least 300 snaps in pass protection with a 99.0 pass-blocking efficiency.

Ford will have to prove in training camp that his success in pass protection wasn’t just a consequence of playing in the Big 12 and that he can succeed as a run-blocker at the professional level (71.5 run-blocking grade during his career at Oklahoma).

 

[Again, Risner ranked ahead of him in pass protection and has played Center.  Seems as if he would have been a better pick.]  

 

Either way, Spain and Nsecke appear to be pretty average pass-blockers.  Dawkins, who knows.  Ford, who knows.  Morse, a significant upgrade, but if he goes down, then a significant downgrade with Bodine and we're pretty much back to where we were last season pending Ford.  

 

Both Morse and Spain had their best seasons in 2016, three seasons ago, so their averages reflect that, meaning that in the past two seasons their ratings are lower than their averages.  

 

 

Edited May 24, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[Big Turk]

10 hours ago, Chill said:

TE is worse with Clay gone. You could argue D Line with Williams retiring. 

 

Other than that,  we have improved. Beane sacrificed last year for results this year and in the future. Of course he knows what’s he’s doing. 

Really? Cause he kind of sucked last year.

[Aussie Joe]

People pining for Clay...LOL.

 

Guess that’s why he signed with Arizona for those big bucks...

 

I wouldnt be surprised if he is not on any teams roster come Week 1

 

Edited May 24, 2019 by Aussie Joe

[eball]

1 hour ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Either way, Spain and Nsecke appear to be pretty average pass-blockers.  Dawkins, who knows.  Ford, who knows.  Morse, a significant upgrade, but if he goes down, then a significant downgrade with Bodine and we're pretty much back to where we were last season pending Ford.  

 

Both Morse and Spain had their best seasons in 2016, three seasons ago, so their averages reflect that, meaning that in the past two seasons their ratings are lower than their averages.  

 

 

 

I snipped most of it but you spent an awful lot of time to prove what exactly? Are you conceivably making an argument the OL will be worse this year? Because that’s the question the original post pondered. 

[Freddie's Dead]

3 hours ago, Nelius said:

 

Added: Cole Beasley, John Brown, Andre Roberts, Duke Williams, David Sills

Lost: Kelvin Benjamin and Terrelle Pryor?

 

You've lost me. 

 

I'm not sold that any of those guys are #1's let alone #2 WR's.  Bunch of JAGs until I see it on the field.