thebandit27 Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said: That's the narrative. We'll find out soon. Certainly hope I'm wrong. Either way, what I saw from Phillips, clearly against tougher competition, man-on-man as well, I was more impressed. 3-technique, or not, against Arizona and Texas Tech this past season, even in man-on-man I found him to be unimpressive. Watch those videos of him. Give me the time signature for the plays that you think he played like you're saying, in man-to-man, nothing more. Role doesn't matter in those situations, and he was horrible on double teams, which he'll see frequently, 3-technique (which is the role as of now) or otherwise. Phillips is bigger and he had trouble. FWIW, I'm less than 1:40 into the Texas Tech game video below and he's already flashed 3 different times. Not an easy task against a team whose offense is designed to negate the pass rush by getting the ball out as fast as possible and tilting the run away from the interior. Just for fun: 0:10 second play of the game, and he pushes the center back into the QB's lap 0:20 he's in the backfield almost too quickly...any LB worth his salt would've had a TFL if they filled the gap 1:25 completely blows up the play for a 4-yard loss 1:32 again, he's in the QB's face in less than 3 second Like I said, you're not even halfway through the 1st quarter and he's obviously making his presence known. As for what he did against double-teams, go watch the play at 1:54...that ought to bust that narrative at the seams.
Ronin Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 3 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said: One of the top DEs in the game but not elite? You name is quite appropriate given your analysis is about as good as Taskers. I didn't say that he was one of the top DEs in the game, you just put those words in my mouth. He was about the best that was available and he's quite good. 22 starters all playing at his level and we truly have a playoff competitive team. I guess that depends upon your standard of elite otherwise. Pro Football Focus doesn't have him rated as elite. They have him rated as good overall, above-average in run D, high-quality in pass rush, and average in coverage. I would agree with that assessment. My standard is that if in your prime years your average sack total is a mere 5.5 sacks, then sure, he's elite I suppose. But consider ... Hughes ranked tied for 38th in sacks last season with 11 other players. In '17 he ranked tied with 19 other players, one of which was Lawson, at 84th in sacks. In '16 he ranked tied with 6 other players for 47th in sacks. In '15 he ranked tied with 18 other players tied for 67th in sacks. Those were his prime years. So if I understand you correctly, you think that's elite, right? I think that helps explain any difference in our takes on Hughes though. My standard of elite is somewhat higher. I'd strongly suggest consistently in the top-10 at minimum. But hey, maybe I'm too harsh, eh. Bills were wise to sign him as they have nothing else at DE that's going to keep us competitive. IMO we should go after McCoy too at DT.
Ronin Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 2 hours ago, HappyDays said: Oh, HighFootballIQ. You can't help yourself. How many usernames did you have at BBMB? Anyone who used to post there will instantly recognize this troll. Uhhh, none, never had an account at BBMB, wherever that is. BB.com? I only have one here and haven't anywhere else in years, meaning well over a decade. You mistake me for somone that mindlessly enjoys wasting his time. This has been my only user name here. Wouldn't mind changing it tho. Not sure that can be done. Can't help myself do what precisely? Comment intelligently on the team? Suggest that a DE that's had an average sack ranking of 59th in sacks over the past four years in his prime isn't elite? Oh the horror. LOL And yeah, I have difficulty doing so. I also have difficulty pre-annointing rookies to the levels of greatness, particularly given our track-record of drafting in recent years. 1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: I was really feeling this comment when I first read it. Then I looked at some of the stats against power 5 teams, particularly the game against Texas Tech. Then I watched the video. Holy cow are you wrong--he got double and triple teamed every play and still managed to affect 50% of the snaps in a major way. The whole offensive game plan was geared at avoiding him. As I've asked, send me the time signatures. I'm happy to look again. I've watched both videos no fewer than three times apiece and portions more than that. Talk is cheap. Time sigs. Then we can discuss objectively which I'm more than happy to do. It's interesting tho, you didn't comment on the notion that Oliver hasn't gone up against any Gs or Cs that were drafted in the NFL in any of his three seasons, including those from the only power-5 schools that he played. Anyway, I'll happily await the time sigs so that we can discuss further and compare and contrast with the existing narrative.
HappyDays Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said: Uhhh, none, never had an account at BBMB, wherever that is. BB.com? I only have one here and haven't anywhere else in years, meaning well over a decade. You mistake me for somone that mindlessly enjoys wasting his time. Thank you for confirming what I already knew. Hows your weird life as a Bills forum troll going? Edited May 24, 2019 by HappyDays 1
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 (edited) 34 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said: Uhhh, none, never had an account at BBMB, wherever that is. BB.com? I only have one here and haven't anywhere else in years, meaning well over a decade. You mistake me for somone that mindlessly enjoys wasting his time. This has been my only user name here. Wouldn't mind changing it tho. Not sure that can be done. Can't help myself do what precisely? Comment intelligently on the team? Suggest that a DE that's had an average sack ranking of 59th in sacks over the past four years in his prime isn't elite? Oh the horror. LOL And yeah, I have difficulty doing so. I also have difficulty pre-annointing rookies to the levels of greatness, particularly given our track-record of drafting in recent years. As I've asked, send me the time signatures. I'm happy to look again. I've watched both videos no fewer than three times apiece and portions more than that. Talk is cheap. Time sigs. Then we can discuss objectively which I'm more than happy to do. It's interesting tho, you didn't comment on the notion that Oliver hasn't gone up against any Gs or Cs that were drafted in the NFL in any of his three seasons, including those from the only power-5 schools that he played. Anyway, I'll happily await the time sigs so that we can discuss further and compare and contrast with the existing narrative. Didn't Bandit just do that above? You are right about the talent of the Gs and Cs. I think that was true of Khalil Mack as well, at least for the most part. All the same, I can't judge a guy for his performance against guys he has never seen. He can only play the guys in front of him. Edited May 24, 2019 by JoshAllenHasBigHands
Bray Wyatt Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Thank you for confirming what I already knew. Hows your weird life as a Bills forum troll going? You sure this is HighFootballIQ? I didnt see anything about being concerned lol
HappyDays Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said: You sure this is HighFootballIQ? I didnt see anything about being concerned lol Check my previous post on the last page. That's how I know it is him. 1
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 47 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said: I didn't say that he was one of the top DEs in the game, you just put those words in my mouth. He was about the best that was available and he's quite good. 22 starters all playing at his level and we truly have a playoff competitive team. I guess that depends upon your standard of elite otherwise. Pro Football Focus doesn't have him rated as elite. They have him rated as good overall, above-average in run D, high-quality in pass rush, and average in coverage. I would agree with that assessment. My standard is that if in your prime years your average sack total is a mere 5.5 sacks, then sure, he's elite I suppose. But consider ... Hughes ranked tied for 38th in sacks last season with 11 other players. In '17 he ranked tied with 19 other players, one of which was Lawson, at 84th in sacks. In '16 he ranked tied with 6 other players for 47th in sacks. In '15 he ranked tied with 18 other players tied for 67th in sacks. Those were his prime years. So if I understand you correctly, you think that's elite, right? I think that helps explain any difference in our takes on Hughes though. My standard of elite is somewhat higher. I'd strongly suggest consistently in the top-10 at minimum. But hey, maybe I'm too harsh, eh. Bills were wise to sign him as they have nothing else at DE that's going to keep us competitive. IMO we should go after McCoy too at DT. Measuring Hughes solely by sack numbers is super reductionist. He has put more pressure on opposing QBs than any other DE in the league over that time period. He is at the very least close to Elite.
Bray Wyatt Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 Just now, HappyDays said: Check my previous post on the last page. That's how I know it is him. LMAO yep! Gotta be him
Stank_Nasty Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: Check my previous post on the last page. That's how I know it is him. wasn't it saviorpeterman that was always "concerned"?
HappyDays Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 17 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said: wasn't it saviorpeterman that was always "concerned"? I have no doubts he has had 10+ usernames over the years. He is always very concerned, he finds a negative spin on everything, and his posts are essays. It's the same crap every time.
Stank_Nasty Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: I have no doubts he has had 10+ usernames over the years. He is always very concerned, he finds a negative spin on everything, and his posts are essays. It's the same crap every time. right on. I just remember that name always being concerned and having to take breaks from the board for "high level business meetings" quite often.
Ronin Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, thebandit27 said: FWIW, I'm less than 1:40 into the Texas Tech game video below and he's already flashed 3 different times. Not an easy task against a team whose offense is designed to negate the pass rush by getting the ball out as fast as possible and tilting the run away from the interior. Just for fun: 0:10 second play of the game, and he pushes the center back into the QB's lap 0:20 he's in the backfield almost too quickly...any LB worth his salt would've had a TFL if they filled the gap 1:25 completely blows up the play for a 4-yard loss 1:32 again, he's in the QB's face in less than 3 second Like I said, you're not even halfway through the 1st quarter and he's obviously making his presence known. As for what he did against double-teams, go watch the play at 1:54...that ought to bust that narrative at the seams. Thanks 27, appreciate it. This should be fun. Not that we'll agree on everything but at least we can look at the details, eh. Here's my take on those plays, but first, keep in mind as the backdrop of this discussion that none of the the Gs or C on that team has anything even close to a reasonable chance of making an NFL team, at all, much less as starters. 0:10 second play of the game, and he pushes the center back into the QB's lap - Agreed. Now, let's examine who that player is. He's Paul Stawarz, an unranked recruit at rivals coming out of HS. He's a JUCO transfer that just graduated and wasn't even so much as picked up as an UFA. The only other colleges that offered him were Murray State, Eastern Illinois, and Coastal Carolina. (File under men-against-boys) Keep watching however, he holds his own against Oliver in other clips. 0:20 he's in the backfield almost too quickly...any LB worth his salt would've had a TFL if they filled the gap - Here's what I see while watching in slo-mo (25%) speed. The entire OL blocks right, correct? Plain to see. It looks to me as if the guard, Akamnonu, plays inside assuming that the T, who completely whiffs on everything in support of this, was going to pick-up Oliver. Otherwise, Akamnonu really wasn't positioned for a direct block, so chalk it up to whatever reason you want, but it was hardly an NFL move. The greater point here is that Oliver completely loses track of the play and allows the RB, undrafted Demarcus Felton, to runs off Oliver's right shoulder right past him. If 22 isn't there to make the play behind Oliver, Felton has a sizeable gain. If he plays like that here he'll never even approach average much less greatness. 1:25 completely blows up the play for a 4-yard loss - Again, looks to me as if undrafted Jerard Carter does the exact same thing right next to Oliver. In fact, Carter had a very comparable game in that one. Your point is valid, but again, finding the same four or five plays that I saw, against that level of competition, both team and individual, hardly justifies the narrative. I also couldn't help but notice that 7 plays that you didn't comment on had elapsed in between. On the very next play Oliver is completely taken out of the play by a sophomore lineman. On the play after that Oliver gets absolutely no pentration whatsoever against the two aforementioned non-NFL lineman. Yes, double team, but again, another double team against nothing linemen where Oliver did nothing. On the play just before this one he gets tied up by Stawarz one-on-one. 1:32 again, he's in the QB's face in less than 3 second - So were two other linemen. He did it in a single matchup, again, against Akamnonu. I mean, I get it, but Akamnonu? Would you say the same about the other lineman's prospects in the NFL as such? Given the narrative, I'm expecting Oliver to dominate games like that from top-to-bottom, which is hardly the case. You yourself pointed out four plays while skipping at least 8 others where Oliver looks OK, but again, against what level of competition here? It's a man-against-boys environment for him, I'd expect more as such. Those plays against those players are absolutely no indication as to his prowess in the NFL. In that game as a whole, again, against that level of non-NFL-hopeful competition, he logged a mere 1 TFL, no sacks on 59 attempts, and was the 6th leading tackler on Houston as measured either by solos or totals. Keep going tho, watch the entire game like I did and point out every play. Let's continue this. Edited May 24, 2019 by TaskersGhost
ColoradoBills Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said: Here's my take on those plays, but first, keep in mind as the backdrop of this discussion that none of the the Gs or C on that team has anything even close to a reasonable chance of making an NFL team, at all, much less as starters. Couldn't everything you just said be applied to Kalil Mack?
Ronin Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said: Didn't Bandit just do that above? You are right about the talent of the Gs and Cs. I think that was true of Khalil Mack as well, at least for the most part. All the same, I can't judge a guy for his performance against guys he has never seen. He can only play the guys in front of him. Yes, please give me some time. I do have things to do. See my post to him. Good points on Mack, but honestly, Mack so dominated that it's almost a ridiculous comparison. He averaged over 18 TFLs and 7 sacks per season from the MLB position. Where you're off is that Mack logged 9 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, and 1 INT for a 45-yard TD return against Ohio State, the Big-Ten runner-up and national champion contender that season. Oliver has never even sniffed a game like that. Mack did this against the Big-Ten runner up and was the defensive leader on both teams including Joey Bosa on OSU. He dominated that game defensively singlehandedly. To my other points, OSU fielded two OL-men in the following draft in rounds 2 and 5. So yes and no. We can make these comparisons to exceptions all day long. The questions are about steady-state performance, not merely performance against competition the likes of which players will never face in the NFL. Wouldn't you agree? 7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: Couldn't everything you just said be applied to Kalil Mack? See the prior post. Do you think so? Look, think what you want. Don't let me persuade you, but if you're going to simply ignore stuff like that, and more particularly the entire lack of it on Oliver's dossier, you do so at your own risk as it were. Half the first round is going to bust or underproduce in some way, nothing new there. Why is Oliver exempt from the possibility? Edited May 24, 2019 by TaskersGhost
thebandit27 Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 1 minute ago, TaskersGhost said: Thanks 27, appreciate it. This should be fun. Not that we'll agree on everything but at least we can look at the details, eh. Here's my take on those plays, but first, keep in mind as the backdrop of this discussion that none of the the Gs or C on that team has anything even close to a reasonable chance of making an NFL team, at all, much less as starters. 0:10 second play of the game, and he pushes the center back into the QB's lap - Agreed. Now, let's examine who that player is. He's Paul Stawarz, an unranked recruit at rivals coming out of HS. He's a JUCO transfer that just graduated and wasn't even so much as picked up as an UFA. The only other colleges that offered him were Murray State, Eastern Illinois, and Coastal Carolina. (File under men-against-boys) Keep watching however, he holds his own against Oliver in other clips. 0:20 he's in the backfield almost too quickly...any LB worth his salt would've had a TFL if they filled the gap - Here's what I see while watching in slo-mo (25%) speed. The entire blocks right, correct? Plain to see. It looks to me as if the guard, Akamnonu, plays inside assuming that the T, who completely whiffs on everything in support of this, was going to pick-up Oliver. Otherwise, Akamnonu really wasn't positioned for a direct block, so chalk it up to whatever reason you want, but it was hardly an NFL move. The greater point here is that Oliver completely loses track of the play and allows the RB, undrafted Demarcus Felton, to runs off Oliver's right shoulder right past him. If 22 isn't there to make the play behind Oliver, Felton has a sizeable gain. 1:25 completely blows up the play for a 4-yard loss - Again, looks to me as if undrafted Jerard Carter does the exact same thing right next to Oliver. In fact, Carter had a very comparable game in that one. Your point is valid, but again, finding the same four or five plays that I saw, against that level of competition, both team and individual, hardly justifies the narrative. I also couldn't help but notice that 7 plays that you didn't comment on had elapsed in between. On the very next play Oliver is completely taken out of the play by a sophomore lineman. On the play after that Oliver gets absolutely no pentration whatsoever against the two aforementioned non-NFL lineman. Yes, double team, but again, another double team against nothing linemen where Oliver did nothing. On the play just before this one he gets tied up by Stawarz one-on-one. 1:32 again, he's in the QB's face in less than 3 second - So were two other linemen. He did it in a single matchup, again, against Akamnonu. I mean, I get it, but Akamnonu? Would you say the same about the other lineman's prospects in the NFL as such? Given the narrative, I'm expecting Oliver to dominate games like that from top-to-bottom, which is hardly the case. You yourself pointed out four plays while skipping at least 8 others where Oliver looks OK, but again, against what level of competition here? It's a man-against-boys environment for him, I'd expect more as such. Those plays against those players are absolutely no indication as to his prowess in the NFL. In that game as a whole, again, against that level of non-NFL-hopeful competition, he logged a mere 1 TFL, no sacks on 59 attempts, and was the 6th leading tackler on Houston as measured either by solos or totals. Keep going tho, watch the entire game like I did and point out every play. Let's continue this. I've watched the entire game multiple times over. The point of the exercise was simply that we're less than halfway through the first quarter, and there are 4 plays already in which he's made a noticeable impact in a game that you said he "got skunked". I don't know how many snaps he played that game, but I do know that Texas Tech ran 100 plays. If you really expect a 287-pound guy playing nose tackle and getting double-teamed 50% of the time (at a minimum) to dominate all game long playing such a high amount of snaps when there isn't a single other decent defender playing alongside him, well, your expectations are absurd. You'll also notice that Tech ran very few of their RPO and other slower-developing plays. The game plan was clearly designed to neutralize what Oliver could do.
ColoradoBills Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 8 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said: See the prior post. Do you think so? Look, think what you want. Don't let me persuade you, but if you're going to simply ignore stuff like that, and more particularly the entire lack of it on Oliver's dossier, you do so at your own risk as it were. Half the first round is going to bust or underproduce in some way, nothing new there. Why is Oliver exempt? I missed the other Mack posts. I should not have commented about him when others have already done so. That being said there was a lot of debate as to how Mack would fare in the NFL in relation to his college competition. I have patience enough to see how he plays this year before I "score" Beane's selection.
John from Riverside Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 2 hours ago, TaskersGhost said: Uhhh, none, never had an account at BBMB, wherever that is. BB.com? I only have one here and haven't anywhere else in years, meaning well over a decade. You mistake me for somone that mindlessly enjoys wasting his time. This has been my only user name here. Wouldn't mind changing it tho. Not sure that can be done. Can't help myself do what precisely? Comment intelligently on the team? Suggest that a DE that's had an average sack ranking of 59th in sacks over the past four years in his prime isn't elite? Oh the horror. LOL And yeah, I have difficulty doing so. I also have difficulty pre-annointing rookies to the levels of greatness, particularly given our track-record of drafting in recent years. As I've asked, send me the time signatures. I'm happy to look again. I've watched both videos no fewer than three times apiece and portions more than that. Talk is cheap. Time sigs. Then we can discuss objectively which I'm more than happy to do. It's interesting tho, you didn't comment on the notion that Oliver hasn't gone up against any Gs or Cs that were drafted in the NFL in any of his three seasons, including those from the only power-5 schools that he played. Anyway, I'll happily await the time sigs so that we can discuss further and compare and contrast with the existing narrative. Because your analysis is flawed in multiple ways....for one....sacks are absolutely not the be all end all of DE pass rush production. QB pressures are much more important.
Ronin Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 19 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: I've watched the entire game multiple times over. The point of the exercise was simply that we're less than halfway through the first quarter, and there are 4 plays already in which he's made a noticeable impact in a game that you said he "got skunked". I don't know how many snaps he played that game, but I do know that Texas Tech ran 100 plays. If you really expect a 287-pound guy playing nose tackle and getting double-teamed 50% of the time (at a minimum) to dominate all game long playing such a high amount of snaps when there isn't a single other decent defender playing alongside him, well, your expectations are absurd. You'll also notice that Tech ran very few of their RPO and other slower-developing plays. The game plan was clearly designed to neutralize what Oliver could do. You point out four, I added context to them. You ignored it. Not sure what to say if you think that blowing up a nothing C is noteworthy, particularly when a few plays later that same absolutely nothing Senior Center stands Oliver straight up and shuts him down. I'm also not sure it's worth arguing over. This isn't about your take or mine, it's about contrasting reality with the narrative(s) that exist. If you read here all we hear is about how Oliver consistently blows up douible and even gives triple-teams trouble. In this game he's facing an absolutely nothing OL with no NFL prospects whatsoever, and his play is as inconsistent as can possibly be and did neither and even couldn't even routinely beat his man in one-on-ones, which yes, I would expect in that level of a game. Against linemen that he'll never even see as such in the NFL I'd expect sheer and utter dominance. in well over 50% of plays, particularly in 1-on-1's. If you want to start rationalizing, feel free. I was seriously trying to engage you on this Your choice. I don't take this stuff personally like seemingly everyone else. Honestly. But just curious, since several of his teammates in this game played just as if not more impressively on D, why don't you rave about them in the NFL, I mean if that's the standard and all? The standard sure isn't his play against a bunch of 1, 2, or 3 win teams like Rice, Tulsa, and East Carolina where he racked up a lot of his stats and nearly all of his "impressive" ones. Even the draft profilers had enough honesty to at minimum question his level of competition. I'll tell you what I'll do, when I have time, perhaps this weekend, I'll document every snap in these two games and post the results. I'll ping you, we can discuss further then if you're up for it. If not, that's fine too.
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted May 24, 2019 Posted May 24, 2019 30 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said: Yes, please give me some time. I do have things to do. See my post to him. Good points on Mack, but honestly, Mack so dominated that it's almost a ridiculous comparison. He averaged over 18 TFLs and 7 sacks per season from the MLB position. Where you're off is that Mack logged 9 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, and 1 INT for a 45-yard TD return against Ohio State, the Big-Ten runner-up and national champion contender that season. Oliver has never even sniffed a game like that. Mack did this against the Big-Ten runner up and was the defensive leader on both teams including Joey Bosa on OSU. He dominated that game defensively singlehandedly. To my other points, OSU fielded two OL-men in the following draft in rounds 2 and 5. So yes and no. We can make these comparisons to exceptions all day long. The questions are about steady-state performance, not merely performance against competition the likes of which players will never face in the NFL. Wouldn't you agree? See the prior post. Do you think so? Look, think what you want. Don't let me persuade you, but if you're going to simply ignore stuff like that, and more particularly the entire lack of it on Oliver's dossier, you do so at your own risk as it were. Half the first round is going to bust or underproduce in some way, nothing new there. Why is Oliver exempt from the possibility? So this is in response to this post and your line by line of the Texas Tech game. I think you are being super nit-picky. It is obvious, even through your quibbles, that he is heads and shoulders more athletic and talented than the guys he was up against. Now, yes, those guys weren't the same talent level as what he will face in the NFL. Buy the guys who don't get drafted aren't miles behind the lineman that do. Not the way Oliver is miles ahead of them. Mack had more production against Ohio State than Oliver did, but Mack played a position and style that lent itself to putting up that kind of production. Mack could be moved around and isolated into one-on-one situations against a variety of lineman. I really do think your critique is a little over the top.
Recommended Posts