Josh Allen Interceptions

[Ronin]

On 5/21/2019 at 6:48 AM, Protocal69 said:

Summary/Trends:

10/12 Interception were against 5 teams:  New England(2) *Miami(3)*, Jets(2) Chargers(2), Green Bay(2) - 

(* In the 2 interception game vs Dolphins the 1 interception was a end of half Hall- Mary pass)

 

- Very evident that Josh Allen does need to start taking the check down

- Needs to get better a reading coverages.

- I will say that the 2 interception that Allen threw against New England and the pick 6 he threw vs the Dolphins he was fooled more than anything else 

- most of his interceptions were in my opinion was him trying to do too much. Live by the sword die by the sword.

 

I know this is not some ground breaking stuff for those like us that watch our team game in game out. The coaches had to see this same infomation and is the reason why the they are getting the players on offense that is needed to help Josh Allen get better in year 2.

 

I'll try to get a video added for each interception for visual recollection

 

 

I'd definitely be interested in those videos.  Maybe I'll help you compile them.  Let me know.  

 

Here's a great analysis of his INTs in his final season at Wyoming.  

 

 

What's interesting about his INTs that season is that they were all against the best teams that he faced.  None of the teams that he had 0 INTs against fielded any defensive players in either the 2017 or 2018 drafts.  The two that were drafted were a K in the 7th and a WR.  

 

The only two defenders drafted in '17 or '18 on the teams that he pitched the INTs against were Vander Esch and Vallejo.  

 

The things that you cite were well-known prior to his draft.  

 

Here's the issue in addressing the obvious, how do you coach a QB to check down and how do you coach a QB to read coverage at this stage of the game so to speak.  It's a rhetorical question but a very serious one.  Those are not issues that are easily addressed.  Allen did neither well in college, doing them well now here will be a tall order.  

 

The thing that you said that resonates with me the most was this;  

 

- most of his interceptions were in my opinion was him trying to do too much. Live by the sword die by the sword.

 

I completely agree.  He plays like he's superman, which is a losing long-term proposition for a number of reasons.  To start, he's on a team with 10 others players on the field at any given time all with the same goals in mind.  If they aren't utilized effectively then it's a lost cause out-of-the-gate.  

 

It's "fun and all" that he ran around like a madman, but lost on just about everyone is that as a pure passer he was far from average much less even good.  In fact, his week 17 stats, in the type of game that won't be on the schedule this season despite how easy the schedule is, massively skewed his total stats, which were bottom-dwelling.  Prior to week 17 Allen and Rosen were neck-and-neck in vying for worst passer in the NFL.   Priot to week 17 he had 7 TDs and 11 INTs.  Had he finished the season w/o that last game the criticism would have been far more existent.  For some perspective, Rosen finished with 11 TDs and 14 INTs in 13 starts to Allen's 11.  As averages Rosen averaged .85 TDs/game and 1 INT/game in his 13 starts.  Prior to that Miami game Allen averaged .64 TDs/game and 1 INT/game in his starts.  Even on the season including that final Miami game Allen averaged .91 TDs/game and 1.09 INTs/game in all of his starts.  Rosen was better in the red zone too throwing 7 RZ TDs contrasted with Allen's 4, only 2 of which were prior to week 17.  

 

The million-dollar question is can Allen play more like he did in week 17, amidst a whole lot of positive emotion and a perfect-storm of circumstance and environment, at home too we should add, or more like he did the rest of the season.  If the former then he's destined for super-stardom.  If the latter, well, not so much as he's a lot more likely to follow Rosen's path.  

 

I've only seen one national level analyst that seems to get it.  https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ranking-the-nfls-top-triplets-from-32-1-for-the-2019-season/

 

Allen had a productive rookie season ... on the ground. But he's a quarterback, and he needs to be more productive through the air. 

 

How much more productive?  That's a relative question, but I'd strongly suggest that he needs to at absolute minimum beat both Taylor's and Fitzpatrick's best seasons with the Bills, which includes minimizing TOs.  Fitzpatrick's best was over 60% for 3,400 yards, 24 TDs to 16 INTs.  Taylor's best was 63.7% for over 3,000 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs.  Average last season in the NFL was about 66%, 3,700 yards, 22 TDs, 11 INTs.  If he can't do that this season then questions will appropriately begin to arise.  

 

Again tho, you've seen and understand his issues.  How to correct those is another issue.  QBs with residual defense-reading and checkdown issues from college A, typically aren't drafted in the 1st-round, and B, typically also don't excel in the NFL.  The ones that excel did it well in college, and while they may have struggled initially, and some not, in the NFL, but at the end of the day they managed to translate it to the NFL.  So while it shouldn't be written off, it's a much bigger issue than most care to admit.  

 

Obviously we're all hoping that it happens, but far too many people, fans and media alike, are assuming that it's a shoe-in when the opposite is the case, namely, that Allen will all but be charting unfamiliar territory if he manages to do so.  Think about it, he's being expected to go from bottom-dwelling as a passer to average or better this season.  That's an enormous expectation and quite frankly, I'm not sure a reasonable one.  

 

Edited May 22, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[Boca BIlls]

Funny no such thing as hero ball till Josh Allen came around.

[YattaOkasan]

On 5/21/2019 at 12:00 PM, boater said:

I expect fewer interceptions this year.

• He tried to be the hero when far behind scorewise; to wit his throws into coverage and failure to use checkdown. Expect closer scores, less heroics.
• He has better targets.
• He'll have more time.
• I expect he's done something this offseason to improve accuracy.

I agree particularly because he didnt have any 1st quarter interceptions. That should also indicate some hero ball.

[Lurker]

12 hours ago, ganesh said:

From the Ultimate Gunslinger -   508 TD vs 336 INT

 

Farve's a great comparison.  He played hero ball his whole career but got more efficient as he gained experience   

 

Still, his completion percentage over his first five years was 10 points higher than Allen's rookie average, so there's a lot of room for growth on Josh's part...  

 

Farve:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
1991	22	ATL		4	2	0		0	4	0.0	0	0	0.0	2	50.0	0	0.0	-22.5		0.0	0.0		1	11	-2.20	-20.20	20.0			0
1992*	23	GNB	QB	4	15	13	8-5-0	302	471	64.1	3227	18	3.8	13	2.8	76	6.9	6.4	10.7	215.1	85.3		34	208	5.98	5.53	6.7	3	3	12
1993*	24	GNB	QB	4	16	16	9-7-0	318	522	60.9	3303	19	3.6	24	4.6	66	6.3	5.0	10.4	206.4	72.2		30	199	5.62	4.36	5.4	3	3	13
1994	25	GNB	QB	4	16	16	9-7-0	363	582	62.4	3882	33	5.7	14	2.4	49	6.7	6.7	10.7	242.6	90.7		31	188	6.03	6.08	5.1	1	2	16
1995*+	26	GNB	QB	4	16	16	11-5-0	359	570	63.0	4413	38	6.7	13	2.3	99	7.7	8.0	12.3	275.8	99.5		33	217	6.96	7.25	5.5	0	1	1

 

 

Allen:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
Career					12	11	5-6-0	169	320	52.8	2074	10	3.1	12	3.8	75	6.5	5.4	12.3	172.8	67.9		28	213	5.35	4.37	8.0	2	3	6
2018	22	BUF	QB	17	12	11	5-6-0	169	320	52.8	2074	10	3.1	12	3.8	75	6.5	5.4	12.3	172.8	67.9	52.3	28	213	5.35	4.37	8.0	2	3	6

[Locomark]

I would rather us see 12 picks and 28 TDs than see 5 picks and 15 TDs. We need to play in the 2019 NFL if we want to be a true contender again......

[Locomark]

3 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

I agree particularly because he didn't have any 1st quarter interceptions. That should also indicate some hero ball.

 

I think he will have more interceptions. I think we will throw the ball more and just from a basic percentage standpoint his picks will go up. That isn't bad if everything else (points, yards, TDs, first downs, 3rd down conversions) go up as well. 

[Simon Says]

On 5/21/2019 at 9:12 AM, Forward Progress said:

 

Brett Favre has an unbreakable record for most career interceptions and I'm sure we'd be happy if Josh matched Favre's career.

...Favre also tnrew over 500TDs.. 62% completion,3.3% int rate

[billsfan_34]

On 5/21/2019 at 9:10 AM, jletha said:

I do think we will need to come to terms with some level of interceptions. QBs that are aggressive will always throw more interceptions. Hopefully its offset by scoring points though.

Yep- see Brett Favre

[Buffalo716]

On 5/22/2019 at 12:53 AM, ganesh said:

From the Ultimate Gunslinger -   508 TD vs 336 INT

 

and Big Ben, to whom everyone compares Josh.... 363 TD vs 190 INT

 

On the other hand Tom Brady -   517 TD vs  ONLY 171 INT

I don’t think I would compare Big Ben to Allen 

 

coming out I thought Darnold was a better comparison to big bens play style... better out of the pocket at a young age and mobility to extend and throw. Can throw on move 

 

josh Allen is much more comparable to a matt Stafford with mobility  or a Cam newton

 

big, Strong, can make any throw on the field... breaks tackles and can be a serious threat to run

[Rocket94]

On 5/21/2019 at 5:30 PM, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...quite the laughable bi-polar dichotomy, isn't it?...Brett throws five picks and he gets a pass as the "gunslinging gambler"......Josh throws five picks and he's on the lump charcoal with an UBER ride out faster than you can say "Nate Peterman"...YAWN........

Wasn't Jake Plummer a "gunslinger" too! Ha!

[billsfan89]

A lot of those Hero Ball interceptions will improve with better protection, better receiving options, and more experience hopefully. Allen improving his footwork might also lead to less opportunities for interceptions and the need to play hero ball being diminished. I hope that all these factors come together to improve Allen's play. 

[Thurman#1]

On 5/21/2019 at 10:12 PM, Forward Progress said:

 

Brett Favre has an unbreakable record for most career interceptions and I'm sure we'd be happy if Josh matched Favre's career.

 

 

True, but a lot of that has to do with how many passes Favre threw. Favre's INT percentage wasn't low but it wasn't all that high either. 3.3%. Jim Kelly's was higher, for instance. Derek Anderson's too.

[Pirate Angel]

unfortunately part of learning is F****** up

[NewCastleFanBills]

The only real chance the offense had to win was for Allen to play hero ball. He was the leading passer and rusher, that's a lot to ask of a rookie QB. Allen struggled at 1st, but after injury it was as if something clicked. He started scanning the field better, he had a better idea of what each WR was good at doing. He managed to have decent results behind a line that couldn't block a high school D-line. Allen has that "IT" factor that we haven't seen since Flutie. I am enjoying watching how the team is being built. The only person who can fail Allen is Allen, he is being given the team to succeed. Go Bills 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 5/22/2019 at 10:35 AM, Lurker said:

 

Farve's a great comparison.  He played hero ball his whole career but got more efficient as he gained experience   

 

Still, his completion percentage over his first five years was 10 points higher than Allen's rookie average, so there's a lot of room for growth on Josh's part...  

 

 

 

 

I think Josh hits 58% completion percentage this year which will work for us. He is already one of the greatest rushing QB's the NFL has ever seen so with that kind of ability in the ground game we can win a lot of games with him completing around 58% of his passes.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...LOL...Favre was Favre.....he'd throw five picks in a game and the adjective in the post game analysis was "gunslinger" (LOL-2004 draft pundits labeled JP Losman as the "heir apparent gunslinger" going to the Pack at #23, derailed by Tommy Donohole)......anybody else throwin' 5 picks either gets the Texas Death Penalty or castration (Peterman escaped)..

[Shaw66]

Looks like INTs cost the Bills two games - Jets and Dolphins.  Bills win those two and they don't get Oliver. 

 

My recollection was that Allen was better than your summary, in the sense that he didn't have a lot of INTs where I thought he was fooled by the defense and didn't understand what he was doing.   That is, usually when Allen threw an INT, I thought "bad throw," not "bad decision."  Reading your description, if you factor in down and distance, quarter, score, it seems like several were bad decisions in the sense that he should know not to take that risk.   That's what Brady is so good at - he's always willing to wait for the next down or the next series.  Getting zero and moving on is better than making a throw that has a 1/3 chance of being intercepted.  

 

And that goes along with, as others have said, the notion that Allen has to take the easy short throw more often.   That's what Brady does, too;  If it's okay to get zero and move on, it's even better to get five yards and move on.  

 

McDermott talks a lot about putting guys in position to make plays.  In the discussion of sacks in the Chris Simms thread, I mentioned that McD said about Hughes that getting pressures is more important to the Bills than getting sacks.  I realized that McD says that because a pressure gives at least two guys a chance to make a play - the guy who created the pressure can get a sack or a fumble, and a defensive back can get a play on the ball.   Plus, of course, another rusher may get the sack or fumble.  McD said at the end of last season that they want Allen to throw more short balls, and it's for the same reason.  The short ball gives another player a chance to make a play.  It's all part of McDermott's team concept.  Big plays are nice, but he isn't relying on big plays to win games - he's relying on guys making the ordinary plays they SHOULD make and trusting others on the team to make the ordinary plays THEY should make.  

[RaoulDuke79]

What kind of job do you have that allows for this type of research on company time?

[row_33]

On 5/21/2019 at 11:59 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good stuff! 

 

When you got a QB who is willing to sling it, never going to eliminate those INTs.  But it's pretty clear he could improve a lot if he cut  back on the "Hero Ball" and took more of what the defense was giving him (checkdowns)

 

wins is way more important than INTs.

 

 

[eball]

45 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

McDermott talks a lot about putting guys in position to make plays.  In the discussion of sacks in the Chris Simms thread, I mentioned that McD said about Hughes that getting pressures is more important to the Bills than getting sacks.  I realized that McD says that because a pressure gives at least two guys a chance to make a play - the guy who created the pressure can get a sack or a fumble, and a defensive back can get a play on the ball.   Plus, of course, another rusher may get the sack or fumble.  McD said at the end of last season that they want Allen to throw more short balls, and it's for the same reason.  The short ball gives another player a chance to make a play.  It's all part of McDermott's team concept.  Big plays are nice, but he isn't relying on big plays to win games - he's relying on guys making the ordinary plays they SHOULD make and trusting others on the team to make the ordinary plays THEY should make.  

 

I think Josh gets this. In his first press conference post OTAs he mentioned “consistent ball placement” as his number one area of focus. He understands he needs to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers so they can make plays. Last year he was learning on the job and didn’t have many playmakers. This year we see just how smart Josh is and what he has learned.