Protocal69 Posted May 21, 2019 Posted May 21, 2019 (edited) I was bored at my overnight job so I decided to take a hard look at of Josh Allen interceptions in 2018 to see if there was any trend to how/why they occurred. Here is the raw data: Week 2 vs Chargers ( Home) Loss 20-31 Situation: 3 and 4 AT LAC 36 Clock: 2:54 Qtr: 3Score: 13-28Play: Scramble to right to sideline under pressure in the grasp throw in coverage (Hero Ball) Situation: 1ST & 10 AT BUF 2 Clock: 7:11 Qtr: 4th Score: 28-13 Play: Threw it short to Croom defender under cut route zone Week 4 vs Greenbay ( Away) Loss 0-22 Situation: 3rd and 5 at Green Bay 20Clock: 0:56 sec Qtr: 2nd Score: 0-13 Play: Scramble to right under pressure to sideline, threw into coverage in the endzone ( Hero Ball) Situation: 3rd and 18 at Buf 49Clock: 6:19 Qtr: 3rd Score: 0-19Play: threw in tight window to Benjamin off target Benjamin did try to reach for ball Week 5 vs Tennessee ( Home) Win 13-12 Situation: 2nd and 7 at Buf 40Clock: 8:04 Qtr: 4thScore: 10-9Play: playaction off Holmes hand tip INT Week 13 vs Miami ( Away ) Loss 17-21 Situation: 1st and 10 at Mia 41Clock: 0:05 Qtr: 2nd Score:6-14Play: end of half hall mary pass * Situation: 3rd and 10 at Buf 41Clock: 0:43 Qtr: 3rd Score: 9-14Play: clean pocket CB undercut route ignored wide open check-down to HB (Murphy) Week 14 vs Jets ( Home) Loss 23-27 Situation: 1st and 25 at Buf 15Clock: 5:00 Qtr: 2ndScore: 17-13Play: Pressure up middle scrambles to right to sideline threw into coverage ( Hero Ball) Situation: 2nd and 10 from Buf 23Clock: 1:07 Qtr: 4th Score: 23-27Play: 50/50 ball to Zay Jones Ball threw to far inside for Zay Jones vs Cover 2 Week 16 vs New England ( Away) Loss 12-24 Situation: 1st and 10 at Buf 37Clock: 9:53 Qtr: 2nd Score: 0-14Play: threw into coverage vs Cover 2 zone Situation: 2nd and 10 at Buf 47Clock: 4:07 Qtr: 4th Score: 6-24Play: Ball undercut by DB (Man to Man) Week 17 vs Miami ( Home) Win 42-17 Situation: 2nd and 12 at Buf 23Clock: 0:48 Qtr: 2nd QrtScore: 14-7Play: attempted to hit comeback route over middle to Croom Did not see Saftey Rashard Jones lurking near the play Pick 6 Games were he didnt throw a Interception: Week 1 vs Ravens ( Away) Loss 3-47 Mop Up Time Week 3 vs Min-( Away) Win 27-6 Week 6 vs Houston -( Away) Loss 13-20 Injured in game -Incomplete Week 11 vs Jacksonville ( Home) Win 24-21 Week 14 vs Detriot ( Home) Win 14-13 Home: 6 Ints Away: 6 Ints Interception By Down: 1st: 4 2nd: 4 3rd: 4 Interception By Qtr 1st: NONE 2nd: 5 3rd: 3 4th: 4 Interception By Distance to 1st Down: More than 10 yards to 1st: 3 Exactly 10 yards to 1st: 6 Less than 10 yards to 1st: 3 Summary/Trends: 10/12 Interception were against 5 teams: New England(2) *Miami(3)*, Jets(2) Chargers(2), Green Bay(2) - (* In the 2 interception game vs Dolphins the 1 interception was a end of half Hall- Mary pass) - Very evident that Josh Allen does need to start taking the check down - Needs to get better a reading coverages. - I will say that the 2 interception that Allen threw against New England and the pick 6 he threw vs the Dolphins he was fooled more than anything else - most of his interceptions were in my opinion was him trying to do too much. Live by the sword die by the sword. I know this is not some ground breaking stuff for those like us that watch our team game in game out. The coaches had to see this same infomation and is the reason why the they are getting the players on offense that is needed to help Josh Allen get better in year 2. I'll try to get a video added for each interception for visual recollection Edited May 21, 2019 by Protocal69 8 15
jletha Posted May 21, 2019 Posted May 21, 2019 I do think we will need to come to terms with some level of interceptions. QBs that are aggressive will always throw more interceptions. Hopefully its offset by scoring points though. 2
Forward Progress Posted May 21, 2019 Posted May 21, 2019 Just now, jletha said: I do think we will need to come to terms with some level of interceptions. QBs that are aggressive will always throw more interceptions. Hopefully its offset by scoring points though. Brett Favre has an unbreakable record for most career interceptions and I'm sure we'd be happy if Josh matched Favre's career. 7 1
MakeBuffaloGreatAgain Posted May 21, 2019 Posted May 21, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Forward Progress said: Brett Favre has an unbreakable record for most career interceptions and I'm sure we'd be happy if Josh matched Favre's career. I was just going to post the same thing. Edited May 21, 2019 by MakeBuffaloGreatAgain
TroutDog Posted May 21, 2019 Posted May 21, 2019 The ‘live by the sword, die by the sword’ is exactly right. Thanks for doing this. Last year, Josh was forced to be the entire offense too many times and that leads to the stats he had. 3
StHustle Posted May 21, 2019 Posted May 21, 2019 Great break down sir. I can appreciate when a fan takes time out to do this sort of thing. I actually think the results are great as it shows there is no trend to break. All of it can be coached up and with our upgrades Im expecting Allen to have a Mahomes like second year. Not 50 TD's/MVP race type year but going from a ? mark to undeniably considered a top tier QB and respected around the league. Gonna be fun to watch and what a rare treat for us Bills fans. 2
jletha Posted May 21, 2019 Posted May 21, 2019 2 hours ago, Forward Progress said: Brett Favre has an unbreakable record for most career interceptions and I'm sure we'd be happy if Josh matched Favre's career. Yep. Even Drew Brees used to throw a ton of interceptions. Recently is has gotten them to come down and has entered the best ever discussion. I used to have him in fantasy though and it felt like he was always good for 1-2 a game. I would gladly take 30+ passing TDs this year and 12-15 ints though for Josh this season while he learns.
boater Posted May 21, 2019 Posted May 21, 2019 I expect fewer interceptions this year. He tried to be the hero when far behind scorewise; to wit his throws into coverage and failure to use checkdown. Expect closer scores, less heroics. He has better targets. He'll have more time. I expect he's done something this offseason to improve accuracy. 3
gobills1212 Posted May 21, 2019 Posted May 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Juice_32 said: Is your company hiring? Lol, and furthermore its nice he took the time - but that doesn't seem like it wod be fun - unless of course numbers are fun and then to each their own!
LABILLBACKER Posted May 21, 2019 Posted May 21, 2019 5 hours ago, Forward Progress said: Brett Favre has an unbreakable record for most career interceptions and I'm sure we'd be happy if Josh matched Favre's career. I agree wholeheartedly, I'd take Josh having Brett's trajectory anyday over guys like Rob Johnson, Trent Edwards or JP Losman.
Protocal69 Posted May 21, 2019 Author Posted May 21, 2019 7 hours ago, TroutDog said: The ‘live by the sword, die by the sword’ is exactly right. Thanks for doing this. Last year, Josh was forced to be the entire offense too many times and that leads to the stats he had. Yeah I said that because especially with the scrambles to the sidelines where he threw some ints he also hit some big pass plays to McCoy and Ivory doing the exact same thing. 7 hours ago, Juice_32 said: Is your company hiring? Lol. They actually just hired a bunch of people. I think they are going to start again soon. BTW I do tech support for Business customers for our local ISP 1
Protocal69 Posted May 21, 2019 Author Posted May 21, 2019 5 hours ago, gobills1212 said: Lol, and furthermore its nice he took the time - but that doesn't seem like it wod be fun - unless of course numbers are fun and then to each their own! Thanks to NFL gamepass it was easy because they have a filter where you can put in a players name, choice whatever criteria you want to look at and it will show you videos of just those plays. At that point you can look at both the at TV and or the ALL 22 view
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted May 21, 2019 Posted May 21, 2019 9 hours ago, Forward Progress said: Brett Favre has an unbreakable record for most career interceptions and I'm sure we'd be happy if Josh matched Favre's career. ...quite the laughable bi-polar dichotomy, isn't it?...Brett throws five picks and he gets a pass as the "gunslinging gambler"......Josh throws five picks and he's on the lump charcoal with an UBER ride out faster than you can say "Nate Peterman"...YAWN........ 1 1
flaz Posted May 21, 2019 Posted May 21, 2019 Great diagnostics by the OP. The questions as we all know, does Josh take the next step and does he gel with his new receiver and does the new O line protect him? My hopes are high that it all comes together for a 9-7 or 10-6 season. A playoff berth would be icing on the cake.
gobills1212 Posted May 22, 2019 Posted May 22, 2019 3 hours ago, Protocal69 said: Thanks to NFL gamepass it was easy because they have a filter where you can put in a players name, choice whatever criteria you want to look at and it will show you videos of just those plays. At that point you can look at both the at TV and or the ALL 22 view Ya, i didnt mean it as a knock at all. It just seemed like it would be a lot of work. I enjoy watching breakdowns and going back for later viewings etc, but have never considered 'charting' something like that just bc. Kudos
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 22, 2019 Posted May 22, 2019 17 hours ago, Protocal69 said: I was bored at my overnight job so I decided to take a hard look at of Josh Allen interceptions in 2018 to see if there was any trend to how/why they occurred. Here is the raw data: Week 2 vs Chargers ( Home) Loss 20-31 Situation: 3 and 4 AT LAC 36 Clock: 2:54 Qtr: 3Score: 13-28Play: Scramble to right to sideline under pressure in the grasp throw in coverage (Hero Ball) Situation: 1ST & 10 AT BUF 2 Clock: 7:11 Qtr: 4th Score: 28-13 Play: Threw it short to Croom defender under cut route zone Week 4 vs Greenbay ( Away) Loss 0-22 Situation: 3rd and 5 at Green Bay 20Clock: 0:56 sec Qtr: 2nd Score: 0-13 Play: Scramble to right under pressure to sideline, threw into coverage in the endzone ( Hero Ball) Situation: 3rd and 18 at Buf 49Clock: 6:19 Qtr: 3rd Score: 0-19Play: threw in tight window to Benjamin off target Benjamin did try to reach for ball Week 5 vs Tennessee ( Home) Win 13-12 Situation: 2nd and 7 at Buf 40Clock: 8:04 Qtr: 4thScore: 10-9Play: playaction off Holmes hand tip INT Week 13 vs Miami ( Away ) Loss 17-21 Situation: 1st and 10 at Mia 41Clock: 0:05 Qtr: 2nd Score:6-14Play: end of half hall mary pass * Situation: 3rd and 10 at Buf 41Clock: 0:43 Qtr: 3rd Score: 9-14Play: clean pocket CB undercut route ignored wide open check-down to HB (Murphy) Week 14 vs Jets ( Home) Loss 23-27 Situation: 1st and 25 at Buf 15Clock: 5:00 Qtr: 2ndScore: 17-13Play: Pressure up middle scrambles to right to sideline threw into coverage ( Hero Ball) Situation: 2nd and 10 from Buf 23Clock: 1:07 Qtr: 4th Score: 23-27Play: 50/50 ball to Zay Jones Ball threw to far inside for Zay Jones vs Cover 2 Week 16 vs New England ( Away) Loss 12-24 Situation: 1st and 10 at Buf 37Clock: 9:53 Qtr: 2nd Score: 0-14Play: threw into coverage vs Cover 2 zone Situation: 2nd and 10 at Buf 47Clock: 4:07 Qtr: 4th Score: 6-24Play: Ball undercut by DB (Man to Man) Week 17 vs Miami ( Home) Win 42-17 Situation: 2nd and 12 at Buf 23Clock: 0:48 Qtr: 2nd QrtScore: 14-7Play: attempted to hit comeback route over middle to Croom Did not see Saftey Rashard Jones lurking near the play Pick 6 Games were he didnt throw a Interception: Week 1 vs Ravens ( Away) Loss 3-47 Mop Up Time Week 3 vs Min-( Away) Win 27-6 Week 6 vs Houston -( Away) Loss 13-20 Injured in game -Incomplete Week 11 vs Jacksonville ( Home) Win 24-21 Week 14 vs Detriot ( Home) Win 14-13 Home: 6 Ints Away: 6 Ints Interception By Down: 1st: 4 2nd: 4 3rd: 4 Interception By Qtr 1st: NONE 2nd: 5 3rd: 3 4th: 4 Interception By Distance to 1st Down: More than 10 yards to 1st: 3 Exactly 10 yards to 1st: 6 Less than 10 yards to 1st: 3 Summary/Trends: 10/12 Interception were against 5 teams: New England(2) *Miami(3)*, Jets(2) Chargers(2), Green Bay(2) - (* In the 2 interception game vs Dolphins the 1 interception was a end of half Hall- Mary pass) - Very evident that Josh Allen does need to start taking the check down - Needs to get better a reading coverages. - I will say that the 2 interception that Allen threw against New England and the pick 6 he threw vs the Dolphins he was fooled more than anything else - most of his interceptions were in my opinion was him trying to do too much. Live by the sword die by the sword. I know this is not some ground breaking stuff for those like us that watch our team game in game out. The coaches had to see this same infomation and is the reason why the they are getting the players on offense that is needed to help Josh Allen get better in year 2. I'll try to get a video added for each interception for visual recollection Good stuff! When you got a QB who is willing to sling it, never going to eliminate those INTs. But it's pretty clear he could improve a lot if he cut back on the "Hero Ball" and took more of what the defense was giving him (checkdowns) 1
MJS Posted May 22, 2019 Posted May 22, 2019 I'd rather have an aggressive QB that you have to rein in than a timid QB you beg to be more aggressive. We'll see his INT's lower as he gains more experience.
ganesh Posted May 22, 2019 Posted May 22, 2019 (edited) 15 hours ago, jletha said: I do think we will need to come to terms with some level of interceptions. QBs that are aggressive will always throw more interceptions. Hopefully its offset by scoring points though. From the Ultimate Gunslinger - 508 TD vs 336 INT and Big Ben, to whom everyone compares Josh.... 363 TD vs 190 INT On the other hand Tom Brady - 517 TD vs ONLY 171 INT Edited May 22, 2019 by ganesh
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