Buffalo Sabres and NHL: 2019/20: Sabres season officially over. Draft lottery June 26th

[shrader]

22 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Not the money, it’s the term that’s hard right? Finally players getting smart and not looking for 8 year deals coming off their ELC, but 5 to get that second bite at the Apple. 

 

This is what Marner wants too,,,but $north of $11m for 5, just like Matthews recurved 

 

It's very front loaded with a signing bonus and roster bonuses.  I believe the deal has him getting $21 million over the next 12 months.  So that will be the sticking point right there, the immediate cash going out the door.  The rest of the term really has no impact.  Since it's signed, it is what it is at this point.  The rest of that contract would actually fit nicely into the Dundon model, paying very little over those 4 remaining years.

[BillsFan4]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

Not the money, it’s the term that’s hard right? Finally players getting smart and not looking for 8 year deals coming off their ELC, but 5 to get that second bite at the Apple. 

 

This is what Marner wants too,,,but $north of $11m for 5, just like Matthews recurved 

 

I don’t think a 5 year term is really anything all that new. It’s bucking a recent trend, maybe. 

 

Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane, Tavares, Stamkos all signed 5 year deals coming off their ELC (except Tavares, he signed for 6yrs). Dylan Larkin signed a 6yr deal coming off his ELC (though he’s not rally a star). Kucherov signed a 3 year bridge deal. Seguin signed a 6yr deal after his ELC.

 

I’d have to look into it a bit more, but I think it might actually be a newer trend to give out these max term (8yr) deals to guys coming off their ELC. Florida did it with Ekblad. Edmonton with McDavid and Draisaitl. Us with Eichel. 

 

 

I actually feel kind of lucky that Eichel only wanted a max term contract here. He wanted to commit to buffalo as long as he could. He could have easily went after a 5-6 year deal like many star players before him. Hopefully his deal will look like a bargain before too much longer. It was never going to in the beginning, but it sure has a chance to in the next few years (depending on what happens in the market and how much Eichel continues to grow). 

 

 

[The Jokeman]

6 hours ago, snafu said:

 

Vesey for a 3rd is fine. 

The Sabres better not just stick him on Jack's line just because they are buddies. 

 

 

 

3rd line and maybe PP2. That said we still need help on the real second line. Maybe Botts is working on a trade as still think we have too many RHD or seeing who fails to sign to swoop on tomorrow. 

[snafu]

20 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

3rd line and maybe PP2. That said we still need help on the real second line. Maybe Botts is working on a trade as still think we have too many RHD or seeing who fails to sign to swoop on tomorrow. 

 

That sounds about right for Vesey.  He should contribute if that’s his role.

 

[4merper4mer]

29 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

That sounds about right for Vesey.  He should contribute if that’s his role.

 

Lol at these moves.  Nice effort Botts.  The Rangers sucked this year and didn't want him.  Somehow he's our big prize.

[shrader]

15 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

I don’t think a 5 year term is really anything all that new. It’s bucking a recent trend, maybe. 

 

Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane, Tavares, Stamkos all signed 5 year deals coming off their ELC (except Tavares, he signed for 6yrs). Dylan Larkin signed a 6yr deal coming off his ELC (though he’s not rally a star). Kucherov signed a 3 year bridge deal. Seguin signed a 6yr deal after his ELC.

 

I’d have to look into it a bit more, but I think it might actually be a newer trend to give out these max term (8yr) deals to guys coming off their ELC. Florida did it with Ekblad. Edmonton with McDavid and Draisaitl. Us with Eichel. 

 

 

I actually feel kind of lucky that Eichel only wanted a max term contract here. He wanted to commit to buffalo as long as he could. He could have easily went after a 5-6 year deal like many star players before him. Hopefully his deal will look like a bargain before too much longer. It was never going to in the beginning, but it sure has a chance to in the next few years (depending on what happens in the market and how much Eichel continues to grow).

 

I'm really confused by Carolina's approach on this one.  Waddell comes out and says that he's surprised that the offer wasn't for more.  So in other words, you think your player is worth a lot more money than you're willing to give him.  Why would you publicly admit that?  It can't make you look very good in the eyes of your own players and it places an even bigger bullseye over your head for all the other teams to aim at.  It might take some time, but that whole thing is going to explode and it's going to be very ugly.

[GG]

1 hour ago, shrader said:

 

I'm really confused by Carolina's approach on this one.  Waddell comes out and says that he's surprised that the offer wasn't for more.  So in other words, you think your player is worth a lot more money than you're willing to give him.  Why would you publicly admit that?  It can't make you look very good in the eyes of your own players and it places an even bigger bullseye over your head for all the other teams to aim at.  It might take some time, but that whole thing is going to explode and it's going to be very ugly.

 

I didn't read it that way.  It's more of a slam on Canadians for low balling an offer sheet.  If you're going to be ballsy, make it a huge offer that will be difficult for the team to match.

[shrader]

5 minutes ago, GG said:

 

I didn't read it that way.  It's more of a slam on Canadians for low balling an offer sheet.  If you're going to be ballsy, make it a huge offer that will be difficult for the team to match.

 

But why even let it get to that point?  They've risked alienating their best player and this whole process will be remembered in 5 years when Aho hits UFA status, if he's still with the organization.  And the rest of the players in that locker room see it as well.

[plenzmd1]

Okay, someone help me with this Kadri-Barrie trade and its impact on any Risto trade? 

I think, and stress think, Barrie has better advanced numbers than Risto, and by a good margin. And he did return Kadei, but Colorado is retaining half his salary. 

 

I have been on the trade Risto train for two years , but if the return is going to be significantly lower than this , just keep him and hope someone gets desperate during the year. 

 

Am i I way off here?

 

 

[GG]

13 minutes ago, shrader said:

 

But why even let it get to that point?  They've risked alienating their best player and this whole process will be remembered in 5 years when Aho hits UFA status, if he's still with the organization.  And the rest of the players in that locker room see it as well.

 

Don't know what's happening and the discussions behind the scenes.  Could have been a case of Canes telling Aho that they will match whatever market rate offer sheet he gets.  Waddell and Aho were probably surprised at the offer, and if anything Aho should be pissed at Canadians for the low ball

[shrader]

7 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Don't know what's happening and the discussions behind the scenes.  Could have been a case of Canes telling Aho that they will match whatever market rate offer sheet he gets.  Waddell and Aho were probably surprised at the offer, and if anything Aho should be pissed at Canadians for the low ball

 

Why would Aho sign their offer if he's mad at it?

[GG]

5 minutes ago, shrader said:

 

Why would Aho sign their offer if he's mad at it?

 

Because he knows the offer is less than what he's truly worth, but it's the best that he can get right now.  Waddell obviously expected a higher offer

Edited July 2, 2019 by GG

[K-9]

34 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Okay, someone help me with this Kadri-Barrie trade and its impact on any Risto trade? 

I think, and stress think, Barrie has better advanced numbers than Risto, and by a good margin. And he did return Kadei, but Colorado is retaining half his salary. 

 

I have been on the trade Risto train for two years , but if the return is going to be significantly lower than this , just keep him and hope someone gets desperate during the year. 

 

Am i I way off here?

 

 

I don’t think you’re off at all. Spot on, in fact. 

 

As I’ve said a few times, we need to get a legit top six scoring threat in return or no deal. Keeping Risto hurts us far less than the acquisition of a non impact player helps us. 

[JohnC]

31 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Okay, someone help me with this Kadri-Barrie trade and its impact on any Risto trade? 

I think, and stress think, Barrie has better advanced numbers than Risto, and by a good margin. And he did return Kadei, but Colorado is retaining half his salary. 

 

I have been on the trade Risto train for two years , but if the return is going to be significantly lower than this , just keep him and hope someone gets desperate during the year. 

 

Am i I way off here?

 

 

If the return on Risto was as high as many are assuming then he would have been dealt. I am not as fixated on his analytics as most because when the stats are applied to a player on a bad team they often don't reflect the actual performance. The problem with Risto is that although he has all the tools his game has not advanced and smoothed out. That's troubling. There is enough body of work for outsiders to come to the conclusion that he is what he is. He is a tantalizing talent with all the physical tools one can covet but his play lacks discipline and intelligence. 

 

My belief is that in a trade you can get a second line player in an exchange. Not much more. The issue that this organization is wrestling with is if his role is diminished and with more structure will his performance improve with the lesser role. If that is the case then he is useful. This is not an easy call. 

[4merper4mer]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

If the return on Risto was as high as many are assuming then he would have been dealt. I am not as fixated on his analytics as most because when the stats are applied to a player on a bad team they often don't reflect the actual performance. The problem with Risto is that although he has all the tools his game has not advanced and smoothed out. That's troubling. There is enough body of work for outsiders to come to the conclusion that he is what he is. He is a tantalizing talent with all the physical tools one can covet but his play lacks discipline and intelligence. 

 

My belief is that in a trade you can get a second line player in an exchange. Not much more. The issue that this organization is wrestling with is if his role is diminished and with more structure will his performance improve with the lesser role. If that is the case then he is useful. This is not an easy call. 

I'm in favor of keeping Risto but at times he looks like a defensive version of Afinigenov.  I think the new coach/motivational speaker deserves a chance to get more out of him.  

 

I also think the new coach deserves a GM trying to get more talent but alas Botts idea was picking up a 3rd string goalie for Rochester.  I guess we're all set because Nylander will be ready for 2027-28.

[K-9]

10 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If the return on Risto was as high as many are assuming then he would have been dealt. I am not as fixated on his analytics as most because when the stats are applied to a player on a bad team they often don't reflect the actual performance. The problem with Risto is that although he has all the tools his game has not advanced and smoothed out. That's troubling. There is enough body of work for outsiders to come to the conclusion that he is what he is. He is a tantalizing talent with all the physical tools one can covet but his play lacks discipline and intelligence. 

 

My belief is that in a trade you can get a second line player in an exchange. Not much more. The issue that this organization is wrestling with is if his role is diminished and with more structure will his performance improve with the lesser role. If that is the case then he is useful. This is not an easy call. 

You’re right, not an easy call. And a call made even more complicated by the fact that two of our projected top 6 D, Bogo and Pilut, are most likely gonna start the season on IR. 

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

You’re right, not an easy call. And a call made even more complicated by the fact that two of our projected top 6 D, Bogo and Pilut, are most likely gonna start the season on IR. 

I have felt for quite awhile that unless Bogo changes his style of play that he will continue to be plagued with injuries. He can skate and move the puck. But because of his problems with durability his banging days should be a thing of the past. As a third or even fourth pairing he has utility.  I like Pilot a lot. In my mind he is a third pairing defenseman. He was a good free agent pickup last year. Maybe Arttu Ruotsalainen can be the surprise free agent player this season?

[BillsFan4]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

Okay, someone help me with this Kadri-Barrie trade and its impact on any Risto trade? 

I think, and stress think, Barrie has better advanced numbers than Risto, and by a good margin. And he did return Kadei, but Colorado is retaining half his salary. 

 

I have been on the trade Risto train for two years , but if the return is going to be significantly lower than this , just keep him and hope someone gets desperate during the year. 

 

Am i I way off here?

 

 

 

I actually think it helps up risto’s trade value. 

 

I can’t really speak to the fancy stats. I haven’t looked at them (and I don’t put a ton of weight of fancy stats anyway, especially risto’s). 

 

But from having watched both players many times, Barrie is a small offensive defenseman that is pretty terrible in his own end. He’s highly skilled offensively, but doesn’t add a whole lot defensively. 

 

Plus, he’s a UFA in 1 season and already making (slightly) more than Ristolainen. 

And he’s also 3 years older than Ristolainen. He’s going to be experience to keep in a year’s time and may price himself right out of Toronto.

 

Risto puts up a similar amount of points from the blue line, can run a PP like Barrie and also adds some physicality and an ability to match up 1 on 1 against the other team’s best player (especially when they are more physical matchups, like against Ovechkin for ex.) that Barrie does not have. Ristolainen is built for the playoffs (IMO).  

 

Barrie has never been asked to shoulder the burden Ristolainen has, either.

Erik Johnson has always been used as the Av’s #1 defenseman. 

 

Personally, all things considered, I think Ristolainen is the better, more valuable defenseman. 

 

 

I think Kadri was a huge get for Barrie. Kerfoot is a nice throw in for Toronto, but I see him as a 3C. Kadri is easily a very good #2C, or even a #1B type of center who is also on a sweetheart deal ($4.5M aav) with term left. That’s an absolute steal for a 30 goal scoring top 6 center. If Barrie walks in a year, this trade won’t look as great for Toronto (unless they win it all this year or something). Kadri + a 3rd for Kerfoot and 1 year of Barrie isn’t very good asset management by Toronto (if that’s what happens). 

 

 

If buffalo could land a pice like Kadri for Ristolainen, I would be pretty damn happy. 

[K-9]

15 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I have felt for quite awhile that unless Bogo changes his style of play that he will continue to be plagued with injuries. He can skate and move the puck. But because of his problems with durability his banging days should be a thing of the past. As a third or even fourth pairing he has utility.  I like Pilot a lot. In my mind he is a third pairing defenseman. He was a good free agent pickup last year. Maybe Arttu Ruotsalainen can be the surprise free agent player this season?

I hope so, too. What I don’t like is that, unlike the case with Pilut last year, if he doesn’t make the Sabres out of camp, we won’t have the luxury of following his progress in Rochester. His Finnish team would need to OK that and it’s been reported that they most likely won’t. It’s the Sabres or bust this year for Artuu. 

[JoeF]

The Sabres are banking on improvement of their young core -- Dahlin, Casey, Jack, Sam, Olofsson, Cozens and adding "locked up for the long term" 26 and under players to that core--Miller (26); Vesey (26); Montour (25) ...its not that hard to see the plan. 

 

This is not necessarily a win now strategy but if these young players have "above average" progression this is a team built for the long-haul. 

 

Skinner (27 but under contract for the rest of his peak years) now has to lead.  He has never been in that position before but I think he can do it.  He has to be the vocal guy with Jack and they both have to be directing the team the same way.  Ralph is better positioned to make this happen than the previous two coaching regimes.  He can take a young team and get more out of them and hold them accountable--particularly those relied upon to lead.

 

I am not brimming with confidence by any stretch of the imagination -- but I do see a plan and splashy moves are not part of the plan....splashy moves are locking up the young core for the long term. 

 

Last year at this time, I thought the Canes would be dog****...Aho and Slavin both take a huge step; Williams leads as only Williams can; Mrazek plays lights out and its a conference finals team. The Canes team didn't gel until February....the Sabres have the talent to take this kind of quick step.