Expectations for Josh Allen this year

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Those games after the injury I would like to see any Qb in the league do better in that situation.  I think the sky is the limit.  With all the additions to the line, Wrs, and Te, the part I think is most over looked is Allen getting all the reps in training camp.  

 

Make no mistake, Mat68.  The two are related: the QB looked worse because the line sucked, but the line also sucked because the QB wasn't making quick decisions.  That's not intended as a knock on Allen - most rookie QB don't and it's a Good Thing, it says they have functional QB neurons that are firing and saying "where's the safety? is it a Trap?"

 

But yeah, a bunch of QB in the league would have looked a little better and done a bit more because they would have made faster reads and got the ball out to the open guy quicker.  It's not an accident that the Bills with Barkley at QB put up their highest yardage.  Nothing special about Barkley, just a vet QB who knew what he's seeing and still has enough arm to get it done (Anderson would be an example of a vet who knew what he's seeing and didn't have enough arm to get it done)

 

The silliness is all the stuff assuming he can't/won't take a step there.  Some QB do, some QB don't, and the only sure way to know is to play 'em.

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

If the offense scores 3 TD's per game we should win a good chunk of our games. 

[Bruce Harper]

Full disclosure:  as you may have guessed from my user name, I'm a Jets fan.

 

I didn't think much of Allen's college career but was impressed by what I saw from him last year. Obviously, his physical tools are unparalleled.  But he needs to get his completion percentage into the high fifties, at the least, and get closer to a two to one TD to interception ratio.  Even with the Bills' very good draft and off-season, the Bills are going to go as far as Allen takes them. 

 

I like Darnold better, but if Allen plays well, the Bills will take over the AFC east over the next few years, due in large part to the Jets' mediocre front office and their poor drafts over the past several years.  But if Darnold breaks out and Allen doesn't, things will swing the Jets' way in the division.   It will be fun to watch.

Edited May 15, 2019 by Bruce Harper

[Bruce Harper]

55 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

Full disclosure:  as you may have guessed from my user name, I'm a Jets fan.

 

I didn't think much of Allen's college career but was impressed by what I saw from him last year. Obviously, his physical tools are unparalleled.  But he needs to get his completion percentage into the high fifties, at the least, and get closer to a two to one TD to interception ratio.  Even with the Bills' very good draft and off-season, the Bills are going to go as far as Allen takes them. 

 

I like Darnold better, but if Allen plays well, the Bills will take over the AFC east over the next few years, due in large part to the Jets' mediocre front office and their poor drafts over the past several years.  But if Darnold breaks out and Allen doesn't, things will swing the Jets' way in the division.   It will be fun to watch.

 

The Jets just fired Maccagnan, even as I was posting the above.  Would start a thread but I don't have the privileges.

Edited May 15, 2019 by Bruce Harper

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Bruce Harper said:

Full disclosure:  as you may have guessed from my user name, I'm a Jets fan.

 

I didn't think much of Allen's college career but was impressed by what I saw from him last year. Obviously, his physical tools are unparalleled.  But he needs to get his completion percentage into the high fifties, at the least, and get closer to a two to one TD to interception ratio.  Even with the Bills' very good draft and off-season, the Bills are going to go as far as Allen takes them. 

 

I like Darnold better, but if Allen plays well, the Bills will take over the AFC east over the next few years, due in large part to the Jets' mediocre front office and their poor drafts over the past several years.  But if Darnold breaks out and Allen doesn't, things will swing the Jets' way in the division.   It will be fun to watch.

 

LOL   kind of funny that ^ 

 

Who threw a PICK 6 on his first NFL pass?  Not Josh Allen.

Is a 17 to 15 TD / INT ratio 2 to 1?  

 

the Blockhead QB in Joysey has as much or more to prove himself. 

[Shaw66]

Shady you could have been Kinder but I have to agree with you. I think by the end of the season it was clear that the bills had the best quarterback in the draft.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Shady you could have been Kinder but I have to agree with you. I think by the end of the season it was clear that the bills had the best quarterback in the draft.

 

LOL 

But

But

I WAS being kind!!!!! 

 

The blockhead comment did seem a bit harsh   but what I meant to portray was his physical appearance  

 

  

52 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

 

The Jets just fired Maccagnan, even as I was posting the above.  Would start a thread but I don't have the privileges.

Yolo has taken care of that  and its on FIRE 

Edited May 15, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan

[LSHMEAB]

9 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

Full disclosure:  as you may have guessed from my user name, I'm a Jets fan.

 

I assumed you were either a Phillies fan or a disgruntled Nats fan.

[Rocket94]

It just seems hard to tell, but considering the improved OL, more weapons for Allen, and a marginal improvement on the defense, the Bills could conceivably win 9 games. One more good draft and FA's and they are getting close.

[RocCityRoller]

3650 yds passing

56% completion %

28 TDs (Some wow throws)

12 INT (some head scratchers)

 

700 yds rushing

6 TD

2 Fumbles (trying too hard)

 

The Favre like comparisons abound, like I said a year ago... ?

but TBD called me an Idiot for the comparison.

 

JA is Brett Favre in the making, I stand by it now like I did back then.

 

Edited May 16, 2019 by RocCityRoller

[Bruce Harper]

On 5/15/2019 at 8:42 PM, LSHMEAB said:

I assumed you were either a Phillies fan or a disgruntled Nats fan.

 

Bruce, not Bryce, Harper was an undrafted scat back who had a nice career for the Jets in the 70s. One of my favorites as a kid. 

[ganesh]

On 5/15/2019 at 5:55 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I Hear You on the W/L record being a team stat.  The place where they're interconnected of course, is that much of the season we had a D that was good enough to win IMO.  [We need them to take a step in run D, but a team can't win when the O gives up 4-5 turnovers].  So to improve our W-L, we clearly need our offense to take a step.  And as the QB goes, so goes the offense.

 

Last year we neither stopped the run or  ran the ball effectively.  When we do that our team as  a whole will improve.  The question is  "Has Beane provided enough resources to improve those two aspects of the team?"...September will tell us.

[ricko1112]

On 5/13/2019 at 9:43 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

On the one hand this article from USAToday BillsWire:  expect Allen to be slightly better than Blake Bortles

"Here was Bortles’ stat line from 2018: 13 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions, 209.1 yards per game. Bortles started 12 games last year and played in 13 overall. If Bortles were to average this number for the entire season, he would have finished with 3,346 yards passing. ......

 With Allen, it’s not unreasonable to expect him to approach Bortles-like numbers. .......a conservatively realistic stat line for Allen is a season of 3,300 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, and completing 56 percent of his passes."

 

How would you feel about that, TBD'ians?

 

On the other hand, then there's this from NFL.com's Michael Robinson picking Josh Allen as the 2nd year QB winning the most games:
"2019 is Josh Allen's year to shine. He'll lead the Bills to an 11-5 record and playoff berth. .....I really like how GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have built this team from the trenches out, adding center Mitch Morse, guard Quinton Spain and rookie guard/tackle Cody Ford on offense, as well as an aggressive pass rusher in first-round draft pick Ed Oliver. The Bills' big offseason additions will allow them to play a physical brand of football. Buffalo won't be flashy but will surprise a lot of teams this season. "

 

Obviously I love that prediction, but is it realistic?

 

The Bills had 3 losses by 7, 4, and 4 points last year which given different outcomes on a few plays, could have been wins

(of course, we had close wins that could have been losses too).  So it's not a huge stretch of the imagination that given some improvement, our record could have been 9-7.  We also had 6, arguably 7, blowout losses.  3 of them were in Josh Allen's first 4 games, including one where the score was out of hand when he came in.  3 of them were when he was injured.

 

Thoughts?

In McDermott's 3rd year, I myself want to see the team take a clear step.  We've been oscillating between 6-10 and 9-7 for 20 years now.  Yep, 1999 was the last time the Bills saw double-digits in the W column.  That's what I want to see.

 

As far as Allen, I want to see him pushing 60% completions.  58%, at least Bortles like.   I also want to see pushing 220 ypg (that would be 3500 yds) and a 1.5% TD/INT ratio.  I'd feel great about his progress if he ends the year close.

 

Allen was pretty bad last year as a passer. Worse than Tyrod Taylor even... It looks like people are high on him because of his rushing yards. In reality, he only had 1 decent game all season. It's tough to see why people are so high on him.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

52 minutes ago, ricko1112 said:

Allen was pretty bad last year as a passer. Worse than Tyrod Taylor even... It looks like people are high on him because of his rushing yards. In reality, he only had 1 decent game all season. It's tough to see why people are so high on him.

coming from a patsie** fan, this post is expected.

one that can and will be seen as nothing but bull####.

[ghostwriter]

8 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

 

Bruce, not Bryce, Harper was an undrafted scat back who had a nice career for the Jets in the 70s. One of my favorites as a kid. 

Thanks for stopping by. The way I see Darnold and the Jets is the way I saw Romo and the Cowboys, although I think the Cowboys are better ran. Darnold reminds me a lot of Romo. He very well may be a Pro Bowl QB but ultimately I think the Jets are so dysfunctional that I don't believe you guys will ever enter the promised land. In my mind's eye, I do think you have a good future at QB. In the end I just see us as having a much more refined FO. Beane is a brainiac at GM and a brilliant mind. Allen was my second rated guy behind Mayfield based off of potential not because of where he's at. Darnold is much more pro ready and although he has a high ceiling, it is not as high as Allen's. I think both the Browns, Jets and Bills all picked good QBs. I feel Rosen will be a journeyman and I think Jackson will fail. 

[John from Riverside]

I expect him to be better....I just dont know how much better

[Bruce Harper]

3 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

Thanks for stopping by. The way I see Darnold and the Jets is the way I saw Romo and the Cowboys, although I think the Cowboys are better ran. Darnold reminds me a lot of Romo. He very well may be a Pro Bowl QB but ultimately I think the Jets are so dysfunctional that I don't believe you guys will ever enter the promised land. In my mind's eye, I do think you have a good future at QB. In the end I just see us as having a much more refined FO. Beane is a brainiac at GM and a brilliant mind. Allen was my second rated guy behind Mayfield based off of potential not because of where he's at. Darnold is much more pro ready and although he has a high ceiling, it is not as high as Allen's. I think both the Browns, Jets and Bills all picked good QBs. I feel Rosen will be a journeyman and I think Jackson will fail. 

 

We'll see how it plays out.  If the Jets can hire a good personnel guy and draft some supporting players (OL) for Sam, I think he will excel.  I see the similarities with Romo.  I'm just hoping that he can be Romo without all the fourth quarter interceptions.  He finished games strong in college, for the most part and he wants to be great.

 

Like you said, Allen has the best tools of the bunch.  I don't claim to be an expert but I think he will need to improve on his accuracy to reach his very high ceiling and that can be harder than it sounds.  It will be fun to watch Josh and Sam play each other twice a year.

 

Agree about Rosen.  He can spin the ball but does not seem to be a hard worker or a leader.  Also, can't move all that well and has already had a couple of concussions.  His family has dough so one or two more and he may decide it's not worth it. 

[Shaw66]

On 5/15/2019 at 8:32 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Make no mistake, Mat68.  The two are related: the QB looked worse because the line sucked, but the line also sucked because the QB wasn't making quick decisions.  That's not intended as a knock on Allen - most rookie QB don't and it's a Good Thing, it says they have functional QB neurons that are firing and saying "where's the safety? is it a Trap?"

 

But yeah, a bunch of QB in the league would have looked a little better and done a bit more because they would have made faster reads and got the ball out to the open guy quicker.  It's not an accident that the Bills with Barkley at QB put up their highest yardage.  Nothing special about Barkley, just a vet QB who knew what he's seeing and still has enough arm to get it done (Anderson would be an example of a vet who knew what he's seeing and didn't have enough arm to get it done)

 

The silliness is all the stuff assuming he can't/won't take a step there.  Some QB do, some QB don't, and the only sure way to know is to play 'em.

I've been away from this thread for a while, came back and read this.   I gotta say, it's one of the best looks at exactly how well/poorly Allen played.   Allen got the Bills everything Allen could, he just wasn't good enough as you describe - not because he isn't good but because he has a lot to learn.  A veteran QB would have gotten more out of the team.  That's what Fitz is - every place he goes, he threatens more talented young guys because Fitz understands what to do all the time and does it to the best of his ability.  Allen has some big steps to take.  

 

I've always been confident he'll take those steps, because his approach almost seems to be that he's a disciple, learning the ways of the master.   When the Bills tell him to throw more of the short high percentage stuff, he's going to do it because, well, his approach is to follow the master.   So he's going to do it - he has the physical skills to do it, and he has the learning capacity to do it.  There's nothing to stop him.   

 

But that is truly easier said than done.  So although I'm extremely confident we're looking at a star in the making, it's all just talk until he does it.   Yes, he needs better line play and better receiver play, and there's reason to hope he'll get it this year, he still has to do what he has to do or it all adds up to nothing.  

Edited May 17, 2019 by Shaw66

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I've been away from this thread for a while, came back and read this.   I gotta say, it's one of the best looks at exactly how well/poorly Allen played.   Allen got the Bills everything Allen could, he just wasn't good enough as you describe - not because he isn't good but because he has a lot to learn.  A veteran QB would have gotten more out of the team.  That's what Fitz is - every place he goes, he threatens more talented young guys because Fitz understands what to do all the time and does it to the best of his ability.  Allen has some big steps to take.  

 

I've always been confident he'll take those steps, because his approach almost seems to be that he's a disciple, learning the ways of the master.   When the Bills tell him to throw more of the short high percentage stuff, he's going to do it because, well, his approach is to follow the master.   So he's going to do it - he has the physical skills to do it, and he has the learning capacity to do it.  There's nothing to stop him.   

 

But that is truly easier said than done.  So although I'm extremely confident we're looking at a star in the making, it's all just talk until he does it.   Yes, he needs better line play and better receiver play, and there's reason to hope he'll get it this year, he still has to do what he has to do or it all adds up to nothing.  

Couple good posts (you & Hapless). I’ll add that I’m a bit concerned how many of us are expecting Dan Marino for year 2. Even ‘God’ Kelly took a few years to finally ‘get’ NFL football, and that was after 2 years of playing intramural ball in Houston. He’s eager, we’re eager. But he’s had a total of 5 actual hours* playing QB for keeps in the League.

 

It takes time.

 

*considering 30/30 minutes TOP.

[Billzfan23]

On 5/13/2019 at 10:03 PM, Happy Gilmore said:

10-6 is probably realistic.  Let's say for arguments sake we could have been 8-8 last year, 10-6 is a logical progression up, even with a lot of new players.  I also think Josh Allen will be a lot more comfortable running the offense since he will be the designated starter and get most of the reps in camp/practice.  Daboll has a lot on his shoulders bringing everyone up to speed and on the same page, but if he can do this, a Wildcard spot is not out of the question.

 

On defense, the biggest question mark is DE.  Need someone other than Hughes to be an aggressive pass rusher.  I'm really hoping Shaq Lawson takes a step up and adds pass rushing ability to his run stopping ability.

I think you have to try to go game by game through the schedule and find 10 or 11 wins in that slate.  I realistically see about 8 or 9, tops.  But, like the Vikings game last year, there could be some surprise wins thrown in there, too.