Expectations for Josh Allen this year

[ghostwriter]

I'm going to venture that Allen passes for 3,800yds with 22 TDs and 10 INTs. Maybe another 500yds rushing and 5 rushing TDs. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

11 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

This must be one of those rhetorical questions...

 

No, I want it stated again because I am having a hard time believing what I am reading and how he got to that position.

 

I also could have possible asked his opinion on other players.  If he references other players, possibly even other QBs, who are going to take a step back then I get it.  If he only thinks that about Josh then I will stand by my "everyone is entitled to their opinion" comment, but I may discount his post as someone (even a fan) just trashing on the Bills, or more specifically Josh.

Edited May 14, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts

[billsfan1959]

13 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

i agree with this. i'm worried about the 1st game being on the road against greg williams. if we start out 2-0 i'm expecting 11-5.

 

i also think josh will quiet the comp. percentage naysayers. he led the league in 20+ yd. attempts so when he starts taking those shorter outlets i believe he will be at no less than 64%.  i also see a td/int. ratio much better than most seem to expect.  i'm going with 3900yds.  27td  9int.

I think Allen will learn to take the shorter routes more often; however, I believe he will always look to make the big play first. That just seems to be his mentality and, honestly, that's the kind of QB I want. My guess is that he will improve his completion %, but, he will likely stay in that 58 - 60% range. I am fine with that and I think he can be very successful in that range. Cam Newton was the MVP with a 59.8 completion percentage. 

 

I think it is more important that he have a TD% of 5+ and an INT% of under 3.

Edited May 14, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Hapless Bills Fan]

37 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

4200 yards passing/ 38 TDs, 18 INTs/ 650 yards rushing/ 58% completion rate

7-9= No playoffs

 

OR

 

3700 yards passing/ 27 TDs, 10 INTs/ 400 yards rushing/ 66% completion rate

10-6= Playoff berth

 

Both scenarios are more than feasible and grant it the Defense will have to do their part, but which would you rather see? Awesome stat line or Competent winning football.

 

Which is supposed to be the awesome stat line?

 

 

[Shaw66]

Thanks Hap.  Interesting topic. 

 

I have a slightly different take on this.   

 

First, I don't expect 600 yards rushing.   Maybe 400.  And I don't expect a bombs-away approach to the passing game.  I expect Allen to be less explosive, both as a runner and as a passer.  

 

I expect these things because McDermott wants a smart QB who manages the game and who makes the throws the defense gives him.  He doesn't want a running QB, because it risks injury and because that isn't the best way to have an effective offense.   

 

Plenty of Allen's best runs last season were on broken plays, where the blocking broke down or the receivers failed to get open or Allen didn't recognize where to go with the ball.  He should have better protection and better route running, so he will not need to scramble on as many plays.  And his own recognition of what's going on should be better.  That all adds us to fewer carries for Allen, and fewer yards.  

 

McD also wants the offense on the field longer, which means a shorter passing game and a higher completion percentage.  They'll take the mid- and long-range throws when the scheme is creating high-percentage opening, but they will take more of the sure-thing short throws.  If Allen doesn't do that, he will be failing.  

 

So the one thing I expect is a big jump in completion percentage.   Allen's going to have time, is going to have receivers with hands who run good routes, and he's being told to take the short, sure-thing throws more than he did last season.  

 

What that means for his yardage, TD and INT numbers depends on how effectively Allen has learned this lessons and how well his receivers perform.  If it goes well, 3500 yards and 25 TDs are within reach. 

 

 Actually, I think the sky is the limit.  But there also are a lot of ways Allen could fall short. 

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

stats I expect for JA this year:

 

25% Ooooh

25% Ahhhh

35% YESSSSSSSS!!!

15% *%&$#@!

0% meh

 

 

[LSHMEAB]

13 hours ago, whatdrought said:

I won’t care too much about comp percentage overall, because I expect them to really use his deep ball a lot. I expect an offense to be made up of a symbiotic relationship between Allen taking shots, and the run game pounding it out. I think we’ll know if he’s the real deal this year.

I would love to see the overall yardage numbers push 220 or so a game and also don't think it's necessary for Allen to be a 60+percent passer. The overall yardage numbers reaching NFL levels would feel like progress. If he's taking shots and making plays, the YP/A will alleviate some of the efficiency issues. 

 

When I think about progress for Allen, I think overall production is gonna be the barometer. I wouldn't feel great going forward if there were multiple <200 yard passing games. The way the team is constructed, they could probably win 8 or even 9 games without Allen taking that leap. It just wouldn't feel like "success."

 

Line is better, receivers are not great but improved, and he's got a year of experience. I agree that we're gonna find out what we've got with Allen in 2019. It's not the be all end all, but the 2nd year is extremely important in terms of figuring out if you've got a talented QB or a great QB.

[whatdrought]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

I would love to see the overall yardage numbers push 220 or so a game and also don't think it's necessary for Allen to be a 60+percent passer. The overall yardage numbers reaching NFL levels would feel like progress. If he's taking shots and making plays, the YP/A will alleviate some of the efficiency issues. 

 

When I think about progress for Allen, I think overall production is gonna be the barometer. I wouldn't feel great going forward if there were multiple <200 yard passing games. The way the team is constructed, they could probably win 8 or even 9 games without Allen taking that leap. It just wouldn't feel like "success."

 

Line is better, receivers are not great but improved, and he's got a year of experience. I agree that we're gonna find out what we've got with Allen in 2019. It's not the be all end all, but the 2nd year is extremely important in terms of figuring out if you've got a talented QB or a great QB.

 

I expect similar yards and attempts as Carson Wentz in year two, with probably a bit lower completion percentage. I think he'll come alive some games, but others will be more ground and pound. I'm fine with a sub 200 yard game if we win as long as the reason is because its a close defensive game and our run game did the job. That happens sometimes.

[billsbackto81]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Which is supposed to be the awesome stat line?

 

 

4200 yards passing/ 38 TDs, 18 INTs/ 650 yards rushing

 

C'mon Hap, are you going to tell me that stat line wouldn't be considered awesome by any fan base with a 2nd year QB not named Mahomes?

 

Pretty sure you know I meant I'd rather see pedestrian numbers if it equates to winning and playoff football. I guess there's always the possibility he goes 5000/45-8/ 800 rushing at a 72% clip but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

 

I expect similar yards and attempts as Carson Wentz in year two, with probably a bit lower completion percentage. I think he'll come alive some games, but others will be more ground and pound. I'm fine with a sub 200 yard game if we win as long as the reason is because its a close defensive game and our run game did the job. That happens sometimes.

I think this team is built to win ugly on occasion, so I wouldn't mind a COUPLE games like home against Detroit and Tennessee for instance. I guess where'd I'd have a problem is if a couple was more like 6 or 7 sub 200 yard games. 

 

A win is a win in this league, so that's really all that matters. I just don't think you're ever gonna compete with the big dogs unless you have a modestly prolific passing game. So where I'm quibbling is with the number of sub 200 yard passing games. 

 

 

[whatdrought]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

I think this team is built to win ugly on occasion, so I wouldn't mind a COUPLE games like home against Detroit and Tennessee for instance. I guess where'd I'd have a problem is if a couple was more like 6 or 7 sub 200 yard games. 

 

A win is a win in this league, so that's really all that matters. I just don't think you're ever gonna compete with the big dogs unless you have a modestly prolific passing game. So where I'm quibbling is with the number of sub 200 yard passing games. 

 

 

 

I  got you. I want to see Josh Allen win however the game demands this year. If it's a 400 yard, 4 TD shootout with the Browns, so be it. If it's a 175, 0 td, 1int sluggerfest with the Titans, so be it. I think that's the mark of a true franchise QB. He can win however he needs to. The important part is that he wins. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

4200 yards passing/ 38 TDs, 18 INTs/ 650 yards rushing

 

C'mon Hap, are you going to tell me that stat line wouldn't be considered awesome by any fan base with a 2nd year QB not named Mahomes?

 

Pretty sure you know I meant I'd rather see pedestrian numbers if it equates to winning and playoff football. I guess there's always the possibility he goes 5000/45-8/ 800 rushing at a 72% clip but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

 

I've been pretty vocal on here for a long time explaining that contrary to popular fan belief, passing yards aren't overall positively correlated to winning.

On the other hand, getting the ball into teammate's hands successfully matters, and so does not throwing more than 1 INT per game.

Also, IMO Allen needs to focus more on making the read to make yards, not on making the yards with his feet

 

So to me, 3700 yards passing/ 27 TDs, 10 INTs/ 400 yards rushing/ 66% completion rate is the more awesome set of stats.

And yeah, I'm a fan too

 

 

[VW82]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I would actually like to see a higher YPA from Allen, but not too much higher.  He needs to learn to hit the bunnies, and he needs to hit them more accurately so as to enable YAC (which fold into a QB's YPA right now).  Explosive plays have that Oooh Aaah factor but the reason short passing games became popular is they're higher percentage and move the chains.  That's possibly why a threshold completion percentage turns out to be important in assessing QB: too low and it probably means he isn't taking advantage of "what the defense gives you" enough.

 

I think making quick decisions and hitting the check down guy in the numbers is something Josh might always struggle with. No doubt he’ll improve, but I don’t think he’s wired to see the game that way. He’ll never be Baker spreading it out, and getting the ball out in two seconds or less.

 

Currently he doesn’t make enough explosive plays to make up for the fact that his reads are slow and often incorrect, or inaccurate. I think he has a better chance becoming a superstar play maker than a cerebral QB. The Cam Newton comparison still feels appropriate.

 

Maybe a YPA of 9 is attainable. That’s rare air but he has the talent to do it. The fact he can escape the rush so well gives him a lot of leeway to extend plays and go for chunk yardage, and if it isn’t there he can just run for it. I’d prefer Tom Brady or Phillip Rivers but that’s not who we drafted. Regardless of how he does it, I think he’ll be much better this year.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I think making quick decisions and hitting the check down guy in the numbers is something Josh might always struggle with. No doubt he’ll improve, but I don’t think he’s wired to see the game that way. He’ll never be Baker spreading it out, and getting the ball out in two seconds or less.

 

Currently he doesn’t make enough explosive plays to make up for the fact that his reads are slow and often incorrect, or inaccurate. I think he has a better chance becoming a superstar play maker than a cerebral QB. The Cam Newton comparison still feels appropriate.

 

I don't know how to say this without accusations of being a "Downer" fan, so I'll just put it out there:

 

-IF you're correct that Josh Allen will always struggle with quick decisions and hitting the check-down guy in stride, then he is never going to develop into the consistent winning franchise QB all Bills fans yearn for.

-The years that the Panthers have been most successful with Cam Newton, are the years Newton has been more successful at spreading the ball around to multiple targets and stacking up 11-12 YPC from 4-5 receivers instead of 1-2 receivers with >1000 yd seasons and 16-17 ypc.

-I think the Bills do see some Cam Newton in Allen, but I think they regard him as a version of Newton with less passing talent out of the box, but over the long term more cerebral and coachable.

[LabattBlue]

Forgot about the drops, forgot about the bombs, if in the next season or two, Allen cannot consistently make the "move the chains" passes, he will continue to be JAG.

[VW82]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't know how to say this without accusations of being a "Downer" fan, so I'll just put it out there:

 

-IF you're correct that Josh Allen will always struggle with quick decisions and hitting the check-down guy in stride, then he is never going to develop into the consistent winning franchise QB all Bills fans yearn for.

-The years that the Panthers have been most successful with Cam Newton, are the years Newton has been more successful at spreading the ball around to multiple targets and stacking up 11-12 YPC from 4-5 receivers instead of 1-2 receivers with >1000 yd seasons and 16-17 ypc.

-I think the Bills do see some Cam Newton in Allen, but I think they regard him as a version of Newton with less passing talent out of the box, but over the long term more cerebral and coachable.

 

I don’t mean to call him dumb either. I’m sure he’s a smart kid. He just doesn’t have hardwired football instincts like some of these guys who have been life and death with the game since they were kids. He’s behind the curve.

 

I can’t see any reason why Josh won’t have multiple receivers go off in a game on a consistent basis. He did that later in the season last year. It just takes him longer to find the open guy because he wants them to really get open so he can gun it in as appose to having to lead the receiver as much and risk behind inaccurate (my working theory). He’ll get better at that too. But it’s that extra second he takes in the pocket to figure out where/how to throw that’s going to determine a lot of his career. Bet he can shave at least half of it off in the next few years, and for him given all his other gifts that might be enough.

Edited May 14, 2019 by VW82

[NewCastleFanBills]

If he can toss 20-25 TDs and keep the INTs to 10-15 and have 5 or so rushing TDs I can really see a 10 win season.

[billsredneck1]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

I think Allen will learn to take the shorter routes more often; however, I believe he will always look to make the big play first. That just seems to be his mentality and, honestly, that's the kind of QB I want. My guess is that he will improve his completion %, but, he will likely stay in that 58 - 60% range. I am fine with that and I think he can be very successful in that range. Cam Newton was the MVP with a 59.8 completion percentage. 

 

I think it is more important that he have a TD% of 5+ and an INT% of under 3.

me too. i'm excited! brown and foster on the outside should be a show.   the cool thing is josh has such a fast ball that he can throw deep and the dbs won't have the time to adjust and break on the ball.  like somone else said, i haven't been this excited since 1987.

[billsredneck1]

10 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I don’t mean to call him dumb either. I’m sure he’s a smart kid. He just doesn’t have hardwired football instincts like some of these guys who have been life and death with the game since they were kids. He’s behind the curve.

 

I can’t see any reason why Josh won’t have multiple receivers go off in a game on a consistent basis. He did that later in the season last year. It just takes him longer to find the open guy because he wants them to really get open so he can gun it in as appose to having to lead the receiver as much and risk behind inaccurate (my working theory). He’ll get better at that too. But it’s that extra second he takes in the pocket to figure out where/how to throw that’s going to determine a lot of his career. Bet he can shave at least half of it off in the next few years, and for him given all his other gifts that might be enough.

keep in mind that he was a rookie and trying to find jones/clay and foster.  look at what he has this year. they've covered the bases.

[Logic]

Numbers wise?

 

Completion percentage around 59%

3,200 yards
19 TDs

15 INTs

 

500 yards rushing

10 TDs

Bills have 11-5 record.