Revisiting the economic predictions from the progressive establishment

[Foxx]

6 hours ago, Magox said:

There are probably a number of possible scenarios where this could happen but I just don’t see any on the horizon.  I actually used to talk about these potential scenarios and what I believed would have to happen for that to occur.   China would have played a large role in that but the more I see China the less I am convinced that will happen.  
 

The question that keeps coming to me is when the ***** hits the fan, where will everyone park their money?  And I just don’t see anything that even comes close to the viability of US treasuries.   
 

Until there is another viable option, the US can continue to get away with what it has been doing.

 

I could be wrong, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time.

 
Who is your uncle?

 

1 hour ago, TPS said:

Historically, the two currencies that have achieved global reserve status are the pound and dollar.  Britain was the dominant economic and military power until the US took that role after WWII.  The only country that might meet the requirements in the future is China, but we're still a ways off from any change....

 

all cowry shells aside... i think that if/when the rejection of the USD comes, it will be for a 'basket of currencies' or possibly, a 'revolving basket of currencies'. i think the world has come to understand that assigning such a lofty status upon one such currency lends an unfair balance to the financial nature of things. again though, the entire fiat perspective relies 100% on confidence and acceptance. with that said, predicting just where consciousness will focus is a fools errand.

 

one other thing i do believe though is that if/when the USD becomes rejected as the world's defacto currency, at that point, we will begin to see a bifurcated dollar. 

 

all of which is based upon the world moving away from the USD, not the rising of another.

 

[TPS]

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

 

 

all cowry shells aside... i think that if/when the rejection of the USD comes, it will be for a 'basket of currencies' or possibly, a 'revolving basket of currencies'. i think the world has come to understand that assigning such a lofty status upon one such currency lends an unfair balance to the financial nature of things. again though, the entire fiat perspective relies 100% on confidence and acceptance. with that said, predicting just where consciousness will focus is a fools errand.

 

one other thing i do believe though is that if/when the USD becomes rejected as the world's defacto currency, at that point, we will begin to see a bifurcated dollar. 

 

all of which is based upon the world moving away from the USD, not the rising of another.

 

I agree with most of this

[Foxx]

1 minute ago, TPS said:

I agree with most of this

what i really want to see is one not manipulated by those behind a curtain in a smoke filled room.

 

i know i am off topic a bit but...we do have one such upon the world stage, right now, at this very moment. however, TPTB are doing their utmost to gain control and place all kinds of regulations therein so they can control it. i understand the need for some forms of regulation to protect Joe and Betty Six-pack but there doesn't need to be what they are doing to it. things really need to find their natural equilibrium.

[RochesterRob]

11 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Japan and Germany should thank their ***** stars that we treated them as well as we did after WW2. I know in the long run it was in our best interest but they came out of that war much better than some others. At the end of the war they were our vanquished enemies not our allies. 

  I believe that there was a movie back in the 1980's where a smallish fictional European nation declares war on the US because "it just is not that bad to lose a war to the US" meaning that once that country lost the "war" economic aid would be coming.  Anyways, if I could go back in time I would have told the Kaiser to keep a cool head around 1910 with respect to the British.  Germany really had it won going into the 20th Century and if it could have looked ahead a couple of generations it would have seen the end of colonialism which it never benefitted from anyways.  I know things were a little hot in Berlin due many centuries of other powers keeping the German nation-states divided but the Germans should have foreseen the same effect in response to a conflict between Germany and its allies and the rest of Europe.  While Germany benefitted from post WWII US policy it also lost a lot in the interim between 1914 and 1970.  

[Magox]

13 minutes ago, Foxx said:

 

 

all cowry shells aside... i think that if/when the rejection of the USD comes, it will be for a 'basket of currencies' or possibly, a 'revolving basket of currencies'. i think the world has come to understand that assigning such a lofty status upon one such currency lends an unfair balance to the financial nature of things. again though, the entire fiat perspective relies 100% on confidence and acceptance. with that said, predicting just where consciousness will focus is a fools errand.

 

one other thing i do believe though is that if/when the USD becomes rejected as the world's defacto currency, at that point, we will begin to see a bifurcated dollar. 

 

all of which is based upon the world moving away from the USD, not the rising of another.

 

Yeah, I think that would be the most likely scenario.  
 

Nothing short of an economic catastrophe would have to occur, much greater than the Great Recession.   And even during those time periods the US’s dominance with its flight to safety status only strengthens its standing relative to the rest of the world.

 

However it would happen I think we can safely say that there  isn’t anything remotely approaching that in the foreseeable future.

 

 

[3rdnlng]

2 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  I believe that there was a movie back in the 1980's where a smallish fictional European nation declares war on the US because "it just is not that bad to lose a war to the US" meaning that once that country lost the "war" economic aid would be coming.  Anyways, if I could go back in time I would have told the Kaiser to keep a cool head around 1910 with respect to the British.  Germany really had it won going into the 20th Century and if it could have looked ahead a couple of generations it would have seen the end of colonialism which it never benefitted from anyways.  I know things were a little hot in Berlin due many centuries of other powers keeping the German nation-states divided but the Germans should have foreseen the same effect in response to a conflict between Germany and its allies and the rest of Europe.  While Germany benefitted from post WWII US policy it also lost a lot in the interim between 1914 and 1970.  

After WW1 Germany was put into a worse position than before the war and they were ripe for a leader like Hitler to rise up. If we had treated them half as good as we had after WW2 there probably wouldn't have been a WW2.

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

After WW1 Germany was put into a worse position than before the war and they were ripe for a leader like Hitler to rise up. If we had treated them half as good as we had after WW2 there probably wouldn't have been a WW2.

  Despite the many flaws of Woodrow Wilson he was the leader of the only major power that did not want to come down hard on the Germans.  I believe that it was predestined given the attitude by England, France, and Russia towards Central Europe that a treaty would be approved which would be harsh on Germany.  Some reparations were in order but the winners of WWI wanted to economically "nuke" Germany back to the Stone Age because that would have preserved the power order that they were use to.  

[GG]

56 minutes ago, Foxx said:

 

 

all cowry shells aside... i think that if/when the rejection of the USD comes, it will be for a 'basket of currencies' or possibly, a 'revolving basket of currencies'. i think the world has come to understand that assigning such a lofty status upon one such currency lends an unfair balance to the financial nature of things. again though, the entire fiat perspective relies 100% on confidence and acceptance. with that said, predicting just where consciousness will focus is a fools errand.

 

one other thing i do believe though is that if/when the USD becomes rejected as the world's defacto currency, at that point, we will begin to see a bifurcated dollar. 

 

all of which is based upon the world moving away from the USD, not the rising of another.

 

That has always been the theory, but practice has proven that it will be virtually impossible for a basket to replace a single currency.

 

The main reason that GBP and USD have become defacto reserve currencies is that they are as close that a paper currency can be to a physical asset that has historically been the reserve.   This is not incidental, because the unwavering support for private property, laws and freedom of exchange underpins the real value of the currencies relative to the worthless paper medium it’s printed on.

 

You will never replicate this set of protections with a basket, unless the basket is comprised of countries who are equally committed to the above economic trinity.  I don’t see that on the horizon at all. 

 

But if the US continues to spiral out of its historic orbit of economic, legal and personal freedoms, then the replacement will go back to a physical reserve, not to another paper currency.  And the world will suck.

[Nanker]

2 hours ago, /dev/null said:

China is closer than most people give them credit.  In addition to their economic boom they have been rapidly building their Naval capabilities and will eventually overtake the US as the dominant power in the Pacific

 

China has been playing the long game while US has been chasing our tail

 

If we were serious about maintaining the USD as world reserve currency, the President should issue a statement that any vessel flying the under the flag of a nation belonging to an alternate reserve currency should no longer expect the protection or support of the US Navy

Oh, I get it. A quid pro quo. 

[/dev/null]

1 hour ago, RochesterRob said:

  I believe that there was a movie back in the 1980's where a smallish fictional European nation declares war on the US because "it just is not that bad to lose a war to the US" meaning that once that country lost the "war" economic aid would be coming. 

 

There was a Pinky & The Brain episode where they pretend to be an island nation threatening war with the United States so they could get billions of dollars in foreign aid

[GG]

1 minute ago, /dev/null said:

 

There was a Pinky & The Brain episode where they pretend to be an island nation threatening war with the United States so they could get billions of dollars in foreign aid

You’re both wrong.  The original was the classic Peter Sellers’ The Mouse that Roared in the ‘60s.

[/dev/null]

18 minutes ago, GG said:

You’re both wrong.  The original was the classic Peter Sellers’ The Mouse that Roared in the ‘60s.

[snafu]

2 hours ago, GG said:

The main reason that GBP and USD have become defacto reserve currencies is that they are as close that a paper currency can be to a physical asset that has historically been the reserve.   This is not incidental, because the unwavering support for private property, laws and freedom of exchange underpins the real value of the currencies relative to the worthless paper medium it’s printed on.

 

This, to me, is probably is probably the biggest reason why nobody is looking to China as a replacement reserve any time soon, no matter how powerful they become economically. 

 

[Nanker]

8 hours ago, /dev/null said:

Nope. 

 

[Tiberius]

On 5/9/2019 at 12:39 PM, Magox said:

I was looking through some of the predictions from the progressive economic darlings right after Trump had won his election and I thought I'd share them with you.    

Right after Trump had won, not sure if you guys remember but the stock market tanked by close to 1000 points in overnight trading and that prompted Krugman, our favorite economist to write a column.

 

 

Politico came out with an article titled: 

 

Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets, If GOP nominee pulls off a Brexit-like surprise, Wall Street would face a Brexit-like stock plunge.

 

Sounds ominous, lets see what they had to say:

 

 

 

So much scare he says.

 

Well, how about from the Editorial Page of the Washington Post.  Those guys are grounded.   Surely they must have had a reasonable take on what a Trump economy could look like, right?   Right?????   

 

Their headline blared:  A President Trump could destroy the world economy  

 

Yikes!   
 

 

 

What about Mark Zandi from Moody's Analytics.   He's one of the lead advisers of the Obama Stimulus package.  Let's see what he said:

 

 

Oh hell, you can just read his drivel/study right here.

 

By the way, Mark Zandi has been and is continuing to be quoted by many mainstream outlets such as CNN, NY times, Politico, WAPO etc etc as if he is some neutral arbiter and he continues to downplay the economy.  

 

In any case, I got a chuckle out of these predictions, I knew they would be waaaay off from day one.    Thought I'd share them with you.

 

 

 

 

Trump said he would balance the budget. Get rid of the debt and have 6% economic growth.. The deficits are over a trillion dollars, interest rates are still low, so why is anyone surprised the Obama prosperity has endured? 

[Koko78]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

Trump said he would balance the budget. Get rid of the debt and have 6% economic growth.. The deficits are over a trillion dollars, interest rates are still low, so why is anyone surprised the Obama prosperity has endured? 

 

It only took 8 summers of recovery and a brand new administration for Obama's changes to take effect!

 

PRAISE BE OBAMA!

[GG]

11 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

 

It only took 8 summers of recovery and a brand new administration for Obama's changes to take effect!

 

PRAISE BE OBAMA!

 

That, and a complete reversal of Obama’s policies.

[Koko78]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

That, and a complete reversal of Obama’s policies.

 

If Obama's administration didn't institute those policies/regulations, there would have been nothing for Trump to reverse to unleash the economy. Therefore, it is all due to Obama.

 

PRAISE BE OBAMA!