One way to help Josh Allen's accuracy: Fewer dropped passes

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nobody would give a shirt in that case.

 

But everyone should give a shirt on a pass that, say, forces a receiver to stop or dive because it wasn't accurate, limiting YAC and preventing first downs. A lack of accuracy is something everyone should complain about. The difference between a pass that throws a guy open and one that allows the DB to catch up and make a play is huge, and the accuracy of someone like Brees makes differences in productivity again and again.

 

You're right that completed passes count. But accuracy can improve completion percentages but also improve efficiency in other ways. And yes, PFF pointed out that he had the second-highest drop rate, but they also pointed out something else, as reported yesterday.

 

"Allen also had the second-highest drop rate among quarterbacks last year at 6.3 percent, according to Pro Football Focus. Blake Bortles was first with 7.7 percent. But Allen only put the ball in the perfect spot 8.6 percent of the time, per PFF. That is 6.5 percentage points less than the league average."

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/05/03/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-quarterback-jim-kubiak-year-two/

 

 

That is being more precise, not really more accurate.  The great QBs are both highly accurate AND highly precise.  He needs to work on precision.  Hopefully with more time with receivers and getting to know them that will improve.

[Laughing Coffin]

Main thing Allen will (hopefully) do this year to help his completion percentage -

 

He needs to take what the defense gives him on early downs.

 

Often Allen will look to make the 15 yard pass in a tight window on 1st down instead of taking the checkdown that's open for 3-4 yards.  Beane says it often this offseason.  Allen will learn that a 4 yard gain on 1st down in the NFL is a great play.

[Thurman#1]

Just now, JESSEFEFFER said:

As he was near the top in both drops and throwaways, I just cut them in half which I thought might be close to the median as I do not have time to actually find what that might be.  So I am only seeing what that looks like compared to Normal.  So, I did not do that which you state that I did.  Nice try though.    And I would bet that 58.5 to 59.5% would right in the range of normal for rookies.

 

 

It was indeed a nice try, and a successful one. Thanks for noticing.

 

You guessed with no bother about checking your accuracy. None. Picked a guesstimate and added it to Josh's, and adjusted Josh's stats and nobody else's. Did you adjust all the other guys who were near the top? No?  Well, geez, then, I'm completely sure any statistician would totally back you up on the fairness of your method without rolling his eyes or facepalming at all while you were watching.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

33 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

That is being more precise, not really more accurate.  The great QBs are both highly accurate AND highly precise.  He needs to work on precision.  Hopefully with more time with receivers and getting to know them that will improve.

 

 

 

Precision and accuracy are synonyms. In fact, precision is often used in the dictionary definitions of accuracy, and vice-versa.

 

There are indeed a few pedantic people who go on about this distinction. From physics geeks and the pocket protector set generally, it would probably draw a standing O.  It's not meaningful for how football fans use the term.

 

 

 

Oxford:

 

 

Merriam-Webster

 

 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Patrick Duffy]

6 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Precision and accuracy are synonyms. In fact, precision is often used in the dictionary definitions of accuracy, and vice-versa.

 

There are indeed a few pedantic people who go on about this distinction. It's not meaningful for how football fans use the term.

 

 

 

Oxford:

 

 

Merriam-Webster

 

 

 

 

Meh

[Thurman#1]

Collins English Dictionary

 

Accuracy:  The quality or state of being accurate or exact; precision; exactness

 

 

 

TheFreeDictionary

 

Accuracy: Precision; exactness

 

 

Macmillan

 

Accuracy:  The quality of being exact and accurate; accuracy, exactitude, precision ....

 

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Meh

 

 

I know. 

 

Dictionaries, right?

Edited May 7, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

Collins English Dictionary

 

Accuracy:  The quality or state of being accurate or exact; precision; exactness

 

 

 

TheFreeDictionary

 

Accuracy: Precision; exactness

 

 

 

 

 

 

I know. 

 

Dictionaries, right?

I guess so dude, I guess so.

[C.Biscuit97]

58 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

One reason is very weak OLs wherever he played including last years.

JA has spent his whole career running and throwing way more than a QB should have to.

Question will be can he improve behind an OL that gives him more time than he has been accustomed to.

Can he learn to move in a pocket instead of flushing and running.

 

JA had 28 sacks last season but 21 were in his first 6.  His last 6 games he had only 7.

He was learning to throw the ball away which is a good thing.  His Y/A also went up a lot his last 6 games vs. his first 6.

 

JA has to improve in many areas this year.  Most fans realize that.  He also should benefit from a much better group around him.

It seems to me that with a better team and incremental improvements in areas he needs to address that he can improve his

"statistical" game.  He seems smart enough and he is willing to put in the effort.

Fair point.  Our oline certainly wasn’t great but mobile qbs tend to get sacked more because they try to scramble and make big plays.  As others have said, Allen should take more of what the defense gives him.  I do think this is harder than posters think though.  There have been many a qb with a rocket arm that would struggle to completely short passes with consistency (Losman, McNabb).

[oldmanfan]

26 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Precision and accuracy are synonyms. In fact, precision is often used in the dictionary definitions of accuracy, and vice-versa.

 

There are indeed a few pedantic people who go on about this distinction. From physics geeks and the pocket protector set generally, it would probably draw a standing O.  It's not meaningful for how football fans use the term.

 

 

 

Oxford:

 

 

Merriam-Webster

 

 

 

 

No they're not.  Not in terms of statistics.  Not in terms of test results, not in terms of throwing a ball or any object at a target.  Refer above to the dartboard analogy.  You don't understand what you're talking about.

Edited May 7, 2019 by oldmanfan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Doc said:

 

In that video showing the drops by Josh’s receivers last year, there were 34 or so where the receiver didn’t need to make an extraordinary effort to catch the ball. 

 

Oh, for sure, and I can readily believe it's one of the highest % in the league given Benjamin and our WR corps last year.

 

My only point was that the film clip linked in Mark Gaughan's TBN piece as an example of a drop,  wasn't one of them.

 

BTW still can't find that video, would appreciate link

[Toesy]

You would think that Allen's stats should be the same as a guy who is a statue back there-this guy is great already at avoiding sacks and moving the chains on his feet. He was clearly the strongest player on the offense last year-when was the last time the Bills could say that about a QB? He went 5-5 with very little to work with on offense. He is doing great-no need for negativity at all.

[oldmanfan]

People are fixated on him getting to a 60% completion rate.  He's 52 and change last year.  Let's round off to 53%.  If he throws thirty passes, and completes 16 that is 53.3%.  If he completes two more passes that is 18/30 = 60%.  So there you go.  Two drops, throwaways, dumpoffs, etc and we're not having this debate.

 

I don't care that much about comparisons to other guys like say a Brees.  Different offenses, different players.  And Brees is an all time great.  I'd love Allen to be a 70 some percent completion percentage but he needs some years to grow, to learn to process defenses quickly and know where his best target is.  And yes, he has to be more accurate in areas especially short passes.  And more precise so WRs catch it in stride consistently and maximize YAC.

 

Give the kid time.  He showed good improvement the last part of the season.  A year under his belt, some new toys, better O line to protect him, more knowledge of when to take the easy short pass.  All these should get him over the mystical, 60%, a couple more completions a game magic number.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

29 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Precision and accuracy are synonyms. In fact, precision is often used in the dictionary definitions of accuracy, and vice-versa.

 

There are indeed a few pedantic people who go on about this distinction. From physics geeks and the pocket protector set generally, it would probably draw a standing O.  It's not meaningful for how football fans use the term.

 

Oxford:

 

Merriam-Webster

 

 

Moving right along from your favorite bedtime reading, they're different, and different in a way that is meaningful to football.

 

I'm hoping one of our guys who scouts and/or coaches can chime in here because they can probably explain better.

 

Accuracy is about the intended target and timing.  For a given route, does the throw get to the spot where it's supposed to go and arrive at the right time?  In theory, an accurate QB and a WR who has been coached to run routes as that QB expects, can have minimal practice and do well.  If the WR shows up at the right spot at the correct time, the ball will arrive and we're off.

 

Precision is about whether the ball gets to the same place, regardless of whether that's the actual intended target.  For example, a QB may have consistent trouble with a throw to a certain side of the field.   The ball will always be high, say, but it will be consistently high.  If the WR and QB have enough practice together, the WR will be aware of the QB's tendencies and his precision should allow them to adjust and make the catch anyway.  All QB have some idiosyncracies which is why repetition is so helpful.

 

Allen's problems last year involved both precision and accuracy.  He was often either high, or low, or late with his throws.  But he wasn't precise - he wasn't consistent about being high or low in a way the WR could adjust to, because he was actively trying to adjust his throws to make them more accurate (and of course, he was surely striving to make the read and get the ball out on time). 

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Moving right along from your favorite bedtime reading, they're different, and different in a way that is meaningful to football.

 

I'm hoping one of our guys who scouts and/or coaches can chime in here because they can probably explain better.

 

Accuracy is about the intended target and timing.  For a given route, does the throw get to the spot where it's supposed to go and arrive at the right time?  In theory, an accurate QB and a WR who has been coached to run routes as that QB expects, can have minimal practice and do well.  If the WR shows up at the right spot at the correct time, the ball will arrive and we're off.

 

Precision is about whether the ball gets to the same place, regardless of whether that's the actual intended target.  For example, a QB may have consistent trouble with a throw to a certain side of the field.   The ball will always be high, say, but it will be consistently high.  If the WR and QB have enough practice together, the WR will be aware of the QB's tendencies and his precision should allow them to adjust and make the catch anyway.  All QB have some idiosyncracies which is why repetition is so helpful.

 

Allen's problems last year involved both precision and accuracy.  He was often either high, or low, or late with his throws.  But he wasn't precise - he wasn't consistent about being high or low in a way the WR could adjust to, because he was actively trying to adjust his throws to make them more accurate (and of course, he was surely striving to make the read and get the ball out on time). 

Thank you.  It is amazing how few people get this.  That stat where some site said on average guys hit an exact spot 16% of the time and Josh around 8?  That is precision.  And not a measure of accuracy.  Although to even measure precision you'd have to ask Josh exactly where he wanted the ball to go.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

55 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Thank you.  It is amazing how few people get this.  That stat where some site said on average guys hit an exact spot 16% of the time and Josh around 8?  That is precision.  And not a measure of accuracy.  Although to even measure precision you'd have to ask Josh exactly where he wanted the ball to go.

 

Sometimes?  If he's throwing a short pass or a dump-off, it's pretty clear he wants the WR to be positioned to run after catch so he's not trying to sail it high or send it toward the ground.  I'm not trying to dump on Josh here, accuracy on short passes was an identified gap for him both in college game film, at the combine, and at his pro day.

 

3 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

According to that standard for drops, it seems it would be difficult to accuse Clay of a drop vs Miami...it seems to be more of a case of an inaccurate pass imo.  And I’m sure Allen would agree, as the throw was a fluttering knuckle ball coming out of his hand.

 

As I said, there are two issues: scored drops, and passes that aren't perfect but that top receivers in the league handle and haul in on a regular basis.

The Clay "drop" probably wasn't scored by ESPN as a drop, but certainly is a pass we need a guy with a $9M cap hit to secure.

[GG]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The Clay "drop" probably wasn't scored by ESPN as a drop, but certainly is a pass we need a guy with a $9M cap hit to secure.

 

Interesting. 

 

Any comments on the pass and drop on the immediately preceding down?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

But everyone should give a shirt on a pass that, say, forces a receiver to stop or dive because it wasn't accurate, limiting YAC and preventing first downs. A lack of accuracy is something everyone should complain about. The difference between a pass that throws a guy open and one that allows the DB to catch up and make a play is huge, and the accuracy of someone like Brees makes differences in productivity again and again.

 

Exactly correct, and this was a problem for Allen last year.  On short passes or dump-offs, the receiver often had to either jump, or go low, for the ball.  Either one prevents him from catching and taking off full-speed and limits YAC or makes it possible for the LB to tackle for a loss.

 

I said it after the draft and after preseason and during the season: if Allen is going to succeed in the NFL, he has got to learn to hit the gimme's.

[GG]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Exactly correct, and this was a problem for Allen last year.  On short passes or dump-offs, the receiver often had to either jump, or go low, for the ball.  Either one prevents him from catching and taking off full-speed and limits YAC or makes it possible for the LB to tackle for a loss.

 

I said it after the draft and after preseason and during the season: if Allen is going to succeed in the NFL, he has got to learn to hit the gimme's.

 

 

https://tenor.com/yER5.gif

 

I take that as a No?

[oldmanfan]

23 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Exactly correct, and this was a problem for Allen last year.  On short passes or dump-offs, the receiver often had to either jump, or go low, for the ball.  Either one prevents him from catching and taking off full-speed and limits YAC or makes it possible for the LB to tackle for a loss.

 

I said it after the draft and after preseason and during the season: if Allen is going to succeed in the NFL, he has got to learn to hit the gimme's.

Absolutely.  Take the easy yards.

[C.Biscuit97]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Exactly correct, and this was a problem for Allen last year.  On short passes or dump-offs, the receiver often had to either jump, or go low, for the ball.  Either one prevents him from catching and taking off full-speed and limits YAC or makes it possible for the LB to tackle for a loss.

 

I said it after the draft and after preseason and during the season: if Allen is going to succeed in the NFL, he has got to learn to hit the gimme's.

I think this is such a good point that is forgotten. Brady might have one of the worst arms of any starter but he gets the ball to his playmakers in space where they can run.