One way to help Josh Allen's accuracy: Fewer dropped passes

[JaCrispy]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just a comment that I would be very surprised if the film clip pulled by TBN and flagged by Gaughn as "an example of a drop", would actually be scored as a drop by whoever is creating that stat - I think it's ESPN?  If the player has to extend his arms fully and leave his feet to get his hands on the ball, they don't score that as a drop. 
 

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

"Only use this if the receiver is 100 percent at fault and no one else can be blamed for the incompletion," ESPN tells its game charters. "Pass interference that wasn't called/passes thrown just outside the receiver's reach, etc., are NOT drops."

 

So there are two issues:

1) actual passes that are scored as drops - "ordinary effort", seems to be the ball reaches the WR within a shoulder-width rectangle extending from the top of his head to his thighs

2) passes that top NFL WR manage to haul in and hang onto routinely.  Watch Thielen, Diggs, Hill, Woods, Jordy Nelson in his prime etc for this.

 

We need fewer drops, AND Allen needs to help himself by delivering more passes that are more on target and  lower-degree-of-difficulty to catch, AND we need some better WR who haul in those higher degree of difficulty but makeable catches.

 

According to that standard for drops, it seems it would be difficult to accuse Clay of a drop vs Miami...it seems to be more of a case of an inaccurate pass imo.  And I’m sure Allen would agree, as the throw was a fluttering knuckle ball coming out of his hand.

Edited May 7, 2019 by JaCrispy

[Tatonka68]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

Fewer dropped passes will help his completion percentage, won’t do much for his accuracy, though. 

Completed passes is what counts, "accuracy" is something that casual fans will always complain about. When you complete a pass for a TD, who gives a shirt if it could of been a few inches more accurate. 

[C.Biscuit97]

I’m asking sincerely.  Why hasn’t Allen ever broken the 60% mark (pretty standard for most qbs) at any level?  All of his past receivers suck?  

[eball]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I’m asking sincerely.  Why hasn’t Allen ever broken the 60% mark (pretty standard for most qbs) at any level?  All of his past receivers suck?  

 

I'm answering sincerely.  Perhaps because his mentality as a QB has always been to go for the big play, and he has only recently received good coaching about what being a QB means?  He also hasn't been playing the position all his life like some of these guys.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I'm answering sincerely.  Perhaps because his mentality as a QB has always been to go for the big play, and he has only recently received good coaching about what being a QB means?  He also hasn't been playing the position all his life like some of these guys.

That’s fair but his ypa was ranked 31st in the nfl.  http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt. 

 

I think people underestimate how much touch is need to play qb.  What really impressed about Mahomes is while he has a cannon, he threw some amazing touch passes.  I think this is something Allen really needs to improve on.  

[Doc]

42 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

According to that standard for drops, it seems it would be difficult to accuse Clay of a drop vs Miami...it seems to be more of a case of an inaccurate pass imo.  And I’m sure Allen would agree, as the throw was a fluttering knuckle ball coming out of his hand.

 

No, it was a drop.  Good thing in the end though because it allowed them to get Oliver. 

 

13 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I’m asking sincerely.  Why hasn’t Allen ever broken the 60% mark (pretty standard for most qbs) at any level?  All of his past receivers suck?  

 

Can you say they didn’t? 

Edited May 7, 2019 by Doc

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

No, it was a drop.  Good thing in the end though because it allowed them to get Oliver. 

 

 

 

 

 

Can you say they didn’t? 

He wasn’t playing in the SEC.  you think Jimmy G and Carson Wentz’ college receivers were great?  

 

The thing that that scares me about Allen is we asking Allen to be better in the nfl than he was in the MWC.  With a bunch of mainly 3rd and 4th type receivers.  

 

But it will be interesting to see how it goes.  The 2nd year is when you see if you have a legit guy or not.  The tape is out and they are going to take away your strengths.  Teams are going to try to keep Allen in the pocket and throw to beat them.  I think we are trying to mold him into Brady when it should be a Flacco type model (play action, deep shots).  JMO.

[ngbills]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He wasn’t playing in the SEC.  you think Jimmy G and Carson Wentz’ college receivers were great?  

 

The thing that that scares me about Allen is we asking Allen to be better in the nfl than he was in the MWC.  With a bunch of mainly 3rd and 4th type receivers.  

 

But it will be interesting to see how it goes.  The 2nd year is when you see if you have a legit guy or not.  The tape is out and they are going to take away your strengths.  Teams are going to try to keep Allen in the pocket and throw to beat them.  I think we are trying to mold him into Brady when it should be a Flacco type model (play action, deep shots).  JMO.

Agreed - fans need to accept him for what he is and hope the coaches do so as well. Let him play to his strengths and coach him to make better decisions. 

[eball]

15 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

That’s fair but his ypa was ranked 31st in the nfl.  http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt. 

 

I think people underestimate how much touch is need to play qb.  What really impressed about Mahomes is while he has a cannon, he threw some amazing touch passes.  I think this is something Allen really needs to improve on.  

 

I think yards per completion is a better gauge of "going for the big play" -- of course the yards per attempt will drop with more incompletions.

 

Josh was tied for 6th in the league in yards per completion last year at 12.3 -- here's the link.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Agreed - fans need to accept him for what he is and hope the coaches do so as well. Let him play to his strengths and coach him to make better decisions. 

Yeah, it’s why I wanted a big receiver for him.  I think tall qbs miss high. 

1 minute ago, eball said:

 

I think yards per completion is a better gauge of "going for the big play" -- of course the yards per attempt will drop with more incompletions.

 

Josh was tied for 6th in the league in yards per completion last year at 12.3 -- here's the link.

I don’t have time now but do you know where his passing chart is?

[John from Riverside]

I think it is a combonation of both.....

 

Guys gotta catch it when it is a catchable pass

Josh needs to stop throwing nuclear missles on passes that require a little touch

 

Note:  I thought he got better at the latter of this as the season went on.....and I figured a lot of it had to do with his raw ness

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I'd like to know his stats in relation to balls thrown away and clocked ( I think they count.)  It seems he had more than typical situations where he escaped the pocket and threw the ball away prior to going out-of-bounds.  Actually, there should have been a couple more of those types of throws rather than throwing into coverage and getting picked.  As a % it seems like it was higher with him than most.  Maybe TransPlanted knows.

 

Wait, I found his thread on page 2.  He was very high in throwaways/spikes.  Looks to be as big or even bigger contributor to his low completion% than the drops.  His high drop % ( lets say half) accounts for ~ 3 points of his "incompletion % and his higher throaways/spikes account for another 3 or 4 percentage points of it.  All of a sudden the rookie lowest 52.5% looks like a phoney issue.  Nice work TransplantedBillsFan.

 

 

 

Yup.

 

As long as you take out all of Allen's drops and throwaways and spikes and then compare them to other QBs without adjusting for their drops, throwaways and spikes, Allen's 52.5% gets close to the lower ranks of normal. By your reckoning, you take out large numbers of Josh's incompletions while leaving everyone else unchanged ... and you get him to up 58.5% or 59.5%, it would get him all the way up to 29th in the league in completion percentage of QBs with over 200 attempts.

 

I'm sure statisticians would find your methodology here - taking away significant percentages of Josh's incompletions but nobody else's - totally reasonable.

 

 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Tatonka68 said:

Completed passes is what counts, "accuracy" is something that casual fans will always complain about. When you complete a pass for a TD, who gives a shirt if it could of been a few inches more accurate. 

Nobody suggested completed passes don’t count. And nobody is complaining. Just pointing out the more refined nuances of the term accuracy. “Casual” fans wouldn’t appreciate the distinction. 

[Thurman#1]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

I think it is a combonation of both.....

 

Guys gotta catch it when it is a catchable pass

Josh needs to stop throwing nuclear missles on passes that require a little touch

 

Note:  I thought he got better at the latter of this as the season went on.....and I figured a lot of it had to do with his raw ness

 

 

Absolutely. 

 

There certainly was an effect on his stats from the drops. But yeah, an awful lot of it came from Josh's side in terms of inaccuracy and problems with tough. But just upgrading the personnel around him should help. But he was inaccurate and had problems with touch. 

 

Which he could certainly improve with work on mechanics and footwork. But improvement doesn't always come.

[Bangarang]

3 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Not sure if they last sentence was you being facetious, but no, they’re not. 

 

I missed a word there. Was saying they aren’t the same 

[ColoradoBills]

37 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I’m asking sincerely.  Why hasn’t Allen ever broken the 60% mark (pretty standard for most qbs) at any level?  All of his past receivers suck?  

 

One reason is very weak OLs wherever he played including last years.

JA has spent his whole career running and throwing way more than a QB should have to.

Question will be can he improve behind an OL that gives him more time than he has been accustomed to.

Can he learn to move in a pocket instead of flushing and running.

 

JA had 28 sacks last season but 21 were in his first 6.  His last 6 games he had only 7.

He was learning to throw the ball away which is a good thing.  His Y/A also went up a lot his last 6 games vs. his first 6.

 

JA has to improve in many areas this year.  Most fans realize that.  He also should benefit from a much better group around him.

It seems to me that with a better team and incremental improvements in areas he needs to address that he can improve his

"statistical" game.  He seems smart enough and he is willing to put in the effort.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

16 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I think it is a combonation of both.....

 

Guys gotta catch it when it is a catchable pass

Josh needs to stop throwing nuclear missles on passes that require a little touch

 

Note:  I thought he got better at the latter of this as the season went on.....and I figured a lot of it had to do with his raw ness

 

This post makes me think of that one pass to the right deep flat that Josh rocketed off of Zays chest. Must have left a bruise 

Edited May 7, 2019 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[BisonMan]

Another factor to consider was the Bills' 2018 receiver separation rate. I read multiple articles that pointed out that Bills' receivers were the worst in the league at getting separation from coverage. The QB only has a few choices there and none are good for his completion percentage:

 

Take a sack - no comp% effect (see: Rob Johnson)

Run for your life - no comp% effect (see: Doug Flutie)

Rifle it into coverage and hope the receiver wins the battle - reduced comp% (see: Brett Favre)

Throw it away - reduced comp% (see: Eli Manning)

Throw a pick - reduced comp% and increased INT% (see: Nate Peterman)

 

Separation rate should improve this year with Brown and Beasley, although Brown has the dropsies. A better line will also improve his time-to-throw without requiring him to make a run for it. That, theoretically, will increase completion percentage.

 

I agree with most on here that Josh has a big role to play in improving his comp% with better decisions and less aggressive throws. His comp% will go up regardless with a better supporting cast but only he can raise it above the NFL average.

 

EdW

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Tatonka68 said:

Completed passes is what counts, "accuracy" is something that casual fans will always complain about. When you complete a pass for a TD, who gives a shirt if it could of been a few inches more accurate. 

 

 

Nobody would give a shirt in that case.

 

But everyone should give a shirt on a pass that, say, forces a receiver to stop or dive because it wasn't accurate, limiting YAC and preventing first downs. A lack of accuracy is something everyone should complain about. The difference between a pass that throws a guy open and one that allows the DB to catch up and make a play is huge, and the accuracy of someone like Brees makes differences in productivity again and again.

 

You're right that completed passes count. But accuracy can improve completion percentages but also improve efficiency in other ways. And yes, PFF pointed out that he had the second-highest drop rate, but they also pointed out something else, as reported yesterday.

 

"Allen also had the second-highest drop rate among quarterbacks last year at 6.3 percent, according to Pro Football Focus. Blake Bortles was first with 7.7 percent. But Allen only put the ball in the perfect spot 8.6 percent of the time, per PFF. That is 6.5 percentage points less than the league average."

 

https://buffalonews.com/2019/05/03/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-quarterback-jim-kubiak-year-two/

 

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

22 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Yup.

 

As long as you take out all of Allen's drops and throwaways and spikes and then compare them to other QBs without adjusting for their drops, throwaways and spikes, Allen's 52.5% gets close to the lower ranks of normal. By your reckoning, you take out large numbers of Josh's incompletions while leaving everyone else unchanged ... and you get him to up 58.5% or 59.5%, it would get him all the way up to 29th in the league in completion percentage of QBs with over 200 attempts.

 

I'm sure statisticians would find your methodology here - taking away significant percentages of Josh's incompletions but nobody else's - totally reasonable.

 

 

As he was near the top in both drops and throwaways, I just cut them in half which I thought might be close to the median as I do not have time to actually find what that might be.  So I am only seeing what that looks like compared to Normal.  So, I did not do that which you state that I did.  Nice try though.    And I would bet that 58.5 to 59.5% would be  right in the range of normal for rookies.

Edited May 7, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER