2019 Bills Passing Game - What do you expect?

[Chris66]

12 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

FRR.  It was 18th. 

 

Frasier was clueless for 1.5 weeks. 

 

Pick 6’s factor into that? 

 

We faced how many playoff teams?

 

And  IF the team gave up 30 but scored 31 who gives a crap?

 

Two QBs that should not have played did.   Which relates to

 

Your best defense is a Good offense 

 

NE was 27 against the pass.  I thought Gilmore was a great pick up. 

8th in points allowed.

Let me know when who ever has the most yards wins.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Funny but if you ask anyone (not a Putz homer) they will still say the top 2 defenses in 2018 were Baltimore and Buffalo 

[BuffaloHokie13]

I'm setting my bar at 265/450 (~59%), 3300 Passing Yards, 22 TDs, and 16 INTs.

[Ayjent]

On 5/5/2019 at 3:56 PM, Just Joshin' said:

If the pass stats are great but it does not result in wins, who cares.  Stat are an indication of success, not the end result.  If a good D and run game get wins while passing less, so be it.

 

What I do want to see from the pass attack:

1.  Pass game carry the team when D and or run game have a bad day.

2.  Consistent production

3.  Make the throws utilizing the entire field.

4.  Hit a few deep balls every game to keep the run and short passes more open.

5. Convert 3rd downs at a high rate.

 

So win and let the stats be an outcome of winning.

I agree stats are just the details of how you got your result, not really whether you played well.   

 

However, certain stats can be predictive of success if they are steady, but not the common stats that are usually available (yardage, QB rating), but more contextual stats. For instance first down % (of all plays), first downs per drive, drive to goal line ratio (average drive length (yards)/average field position (yards to goal)) , and scoring range opportunities/% (i.e., plays/drive conversion % inside 35 yds) - if these numbers are good, then you have an effective offense - how you get those stats doesn't really matter.  So if a QB is only in the mid-50s in completion percentage that doesn't matter if the first down% is high for the offense - that's why Allen was effective when he came back from injury last year - the offense was moving the chains and the ball even with his completion percentage being low.  If you have a lot of plays and a high conversion % inside the opponents 35 yard line you are likely dominating a game.  If you are near 50% in the drive to goal line ratio, the Offense is extremely effective at moving the ball and changing field position.

[BuffaloHokie13]

29 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I'd take Chicagos defense any day of the week over Buffalos.

So would Football Outsiders.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

[HappyDays]

On 5/6/2019 at 1:35 PM, Chris66 said:

 Bills defence wasnt nearly as good as you think

 

No, it was just as good as I think. PPG is one metric but it at least partially relies on the offense's performance as well. The Bills offense was abysmal last year which put the defense in terrible spots. But they ended 2nd in DVOA and 3rd in yards per play. Personally I'll take DVOA's ranking over any of them because it accounts for the circumstances of the play. Allowing a TD after the offense goes 3-and-out on 3 consecutive drives is not the same as allowing a TD on the opening drive of the game.

 

If the defense performs exactly as it did last year (hopefully excluding the first two weeks - yes I know that is easier in writing than in practice), and the offense makes it to middle of the pack, 10 wins is a more than realistic prediction. Our win ceiling this year is going to be based on how much the offense improves. Any improvements made by the defense will just be gravy.

 

35 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

It's really not even close.

 

Bills defense was slightly above average.

 

If you click the link that you quoted, you'll see that both of these statements are false. The rush defense was "slightly above average," but the pass defense was 2nd in the league, which meant the defense on the whole was 2nd in the league.

 

The biggest thing our defense needs to improve is its consistency. Again going off of DVOA, we had the highest week to week variance in the league. If our highs stay the same and the lows become less common, it's very possible we have the best defense in the league next year. A lot of it will depend on Edmunds progressing.

Edited May 7, 2019 by HappyDays

[ColoradoBills]

16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No, it was just as good as I think. PPG is one metric but it at least partially relies on the offense's performance as well. The Bills offense was abysmal last year which put the defense in terrible spots. But they ended 2nd in DVOA and 3rd in yards per play. Personally I'll take DVOA's ranking over any of them because it accounts for the circumstances of the play. Allowing a TD after the offense goes 3-and-out on 3 consecutive drives is not the same as allowing a TD on the opening drive of the game.

 

If the defense performs exactly as it did last year (hopefully excluding the first two weeks - yes I know that is easier in writing than in practice), and the offense makes it to middle of the pack, 10 wins is a more than realistic prediction. Our win ceiling this year is going to be based on how much the offense improves. Any improvements made by the defense will just be gravy.

 

 

If you click the link that you quoted, you'll see that both of these statements are false. The rush defense was "slightly above average," but the pass defense was 2nd in the league, which meant the defense on the whole was 2nd in the league.

 

The biggest thing our defense needs to improve is its consistency. Again going off of DVOA, we had the highest week to week variance in the league. If our highs stay the same and the lows become less common, it's very possible we have the best defense in the league next year. A lot of it will depend on Edmunds progressing.

 

Good points.  Although, the D does need to improve red zone scoring.  That will improve the points against total.

[formerlyofCtown]

On 5/5/2019 at 3:37 PM, TOboy said:

I’d be thrilled with 3400 yards, 18 passing TD’s and limit the interceptions to 12-14.

 

With our defence and potential running game that likely gets you to 9-10 wins.

Is that you Tyrod.

On 5/6/2019 at 5:54 PM, ScottLaw said:

 

Wouldnt surprise me.

 

McDermott strikes me as a coach who thinks you still run an NFL offense like it's 1995.

No I think he has stated otherwise and I think this offseason has as well.

[BuffaloHokie13]

9 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Is that you Tyrod.

Wayyy too many INTs for Tyrod.

[formerlyofCtown]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Wayyy too many INTs for Tyrod.

Too many passing yards as well.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Too many passing yards as well.

He was on pace for that in 2015, but obviously missed 2 games.

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

He was on pace for that in 2015, but obviously missed 2 games.

Or maybe he would have put up less than 100 in each game.

Edited May 8, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[akcash]

I'm gonna say 4300 yards and 28 tds through the air amongst all qbs

Edited May 8, 2019 by akcash

[ganesh]

On 5/6/2019 at 11:05 PM, Chris66 said:

Those passing numbers would be lucky to win 8 games

 

Bills defence wasnt nearly as good as you think

If they can stop the run, then they will be very good.   Can the front seven do enough.

[BuffaloHokie13]

10 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Or maybe he would have put up less than 100 in each game.

You're right. He definitely would have been under 100 in each game after averaging 216 per in the other 14. You might also want to look up the phrase 'on pace for'. Typically it's associated with a rate, and in this case it was a rate determined over 87.5% of a season.

 

You should probably move on though, Tyrod's on his 2nd team now since the Bills and you still feel the need to take digs. Even digs that aren't that well thought out. Here's hoping a QB that's actually on our roster breaks 200 YPG over the course of the majority of the season.

 

To reiterate my expectations for our young guy who's learning, I'm setting my bar at 265/450 (~59%), 3300 Passing Yards, 22 TDs, and 16 INTs.

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

You're right. He definitely would have been under 100 in each game after averaging 216 per in the other 14. You might also want to look up the phrase 'on pace for'. Typically it's associated with a rate, and in this case it was a rate determined over 87.5% of a season.

 

You should probably move on though, Tyrod's on his 2nd team now since the Bills and you still feel the need to take digs. Even digs that aren't that well thought out. Here's hoping a QB that's actually on our roster breaks 200 YPG over the course of the majority of the season.

 

To reiterate my expectations for our young guy who's learning, I'm setting my bar at 265/450 (~59%), 3300 Passing Yards, 22 TDs, and 16 INTs.

No I was responding to a comment that was made.  I actually think that Tyrod was one of the better guys we had at QB since Kelly.  Others need to stop worrying about INTs if they want a more aggressive passing game.

[BuffaloHokie13]

10 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

No I was responding to a comment that was made.  I actually think that Tyrod was one of the better guys we had at QB since Kelly.  Others need to stop worrying about INTs if they want a more aggressive passing game.

Who's worried? I'm expecting 1 per game

[billsredneck1]

for us to get to 10-6 and a playoff birth, i expect the averages to be:

 

no less than 28  att. per game

no less than 275 yds per game

no less than 3800 yds

 

i would like to expect higher in each stat but, it's josh's 2nd yr and our run game should be much improved.

hopefully we get an avg of 30/30 pass/run per game.

[billsredneck1]

On 5/7/2019 at 8:31 AM, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'm setting my bar at 265/450 (~59%), 3300 Passing Yards, 22 TDs, and 16 INTs.

i'm going 310/480  64.6%  3950 29 tds  9 int.  allen will start taking those underneath or in the flat shots when needed instead of waiting for the home run throw.

plus much improved pass pro will help tremendously.