Almost Certain Improvement--6.5?

[JESSEFEFFER]

Given the 6.5 over/under line for the 2019 Bills, I wondered what the recent historical data was for team records from year 1 to year 2 of a QB on a rookie contratct.  The recent trend, probably most closely assoicated with how rookie deals are stuctured and compensated under the latest CBA, is that teams that start a rookie for at least half their rookie year games are going to see a bump in their win totals in year 2.  The basic thinking would be:

 

1) Rookie QBs are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it.

 

2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved.

 

3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. 

 

Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team.  Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went  12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game.  That elminates Mahomes, Luck, Dalton, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration.  Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers."  

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahomes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Dalton	35	Bengals	2011	9	2012	10	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

 

Edited May 6, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[Misterbluesky]

7 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Take the over

 

With so many people taking the over...that line should have jumped to 7 by now?

[JESSEFEFFER]

Those books must be balanced by almost the entire rest of the NFL betting world.

[BuffaloRebound]

Would be interesting to look at the archives and see the general sentiment on this board when these come out every year and if the Bills covered that year.  My hunch is we always think it’s a no brainer to bet the over but Vegas is usually pretty close to what actually happens.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Given the 6.5 over/under line for the 2019 Bills, I wondered what the recent historical data was for team records from year 1 to year 2 of a QB on a rookie contratct.  The recent trend, probably most closely assoicated with how rookie deals are stuctured and compensated under the latest CBA, is that teams that start a rookie for at least half their rookie year games are going to see a bump in their win totals in year 2.  The basic thinking would be:

 

1) Rookies are not fully equipped to win in year 1 and their team's record will suffer fot it.

 

2) QBs usually have multiple advantages going into year 2 as the starter that were not available to them in year 1 and they should be noticeably improved.

 

3) Their relatively low salary cap numbers are compatible with building the roster around them. 

 

Year 2 improvement is almost a certainty for both the QB and the team.  Teams having a sub .500 record where a rookie played at least 8 games went  12 of 14 at improving their year 2 record at least 1 game.  That elminates Mahommes, Luck, Bridgewater and Griffen from consideration.  Glennon and Gabbert were the only over/under "losers."  

 

QB	Drafted #	Team	Year 1	Wins	Year 2	Wins	Δ
Goff	1	Rams	2016	4	2017	11	7
Trubisky	2	Bears	2017	5	2018	12	7
Watson	12	Texans	2017	4	2018	11	7
Ponder	12	Vikings	2011	3	2012	10	7
Wentz	2	Eagles	2016	7	2017	13	6
Mariotta	2	Titans	2015	3	2016	9	6
Carr	36	Raiders	2014	3	2015	7	4
Winston	1	Buccaneers	2015	6	2016	9	3
Manuel	16	Bills	2013	6	2014	9	3
Mahommes	10	Chiefs	2017	10	2018	12	2
Bortles	3	Jaguars	2014	3	2015	5	2
Tannehill	8	Dolphins	2012	7	2013	8	1
Newton	1	Panthers	2011	6	2012	7	1
Luck	1	Colts	2012	11	2013	11	0
Mayfield	1	Browns	2018	7	2019	?	0
Darnold	3	Jets	2018	4	2019	?	0
Allen	7	Bills	2018	6	2019	?	0
Rosen	10	Cardinals	2018	3	2019	?	0
Jackson	32	Ravens	2018	10	2019	?	0
Glennon	73	Buccaneers	2013	4	2014	2	-2
Bridgewater	32	Vikings	2014	11	2015	8	-3
Gabbert	10	Jaguars	2011	5	2012	2	-3
Smith	39	Jets	2013	8	2014	4	-4
Griffen	2	Redskins	2012	10	2013	3	-7

 

Notes:

Watson only started 6 games his rookie year.

Jackson 7 games.

Kizer got traded to the Packers after year 1 so he is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

If you see any other inconsistencies/mistakes I will edit this post accordingly.

 

 

It's interesting that Luck, Newton and Tannehill had no change or a 1 game change.

 

I would guess that reflects the state of the team around them.

 

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's interesting that Luck, Newton and Tannehill had no change or a 1 game change.

 

I would guess that reflects the state of the team around them.

 

 

 

Those 3 were among a smaller subset that showed only small improvement from year1 to year 2, either because they were pretty good year 1 (Luck and Newton) or look to be a consistant middle of the road performer (Tannehill.)

Looks like I missed Andy Dalton.  He was a +1, 9 to 10 wins, so the Bengals were not sub .500 his rookie year so it stays 12 of 14.

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

Aside from the wagering angle, as a fan of the team you'd have to be encouraged at the number of spectacular year 2 turnarounds involved.  50% of the 18 had improvements of 3 or more wins, 33% had improvements of 6 or more wins.  Of the 2018 group, at least one of those 4 (Rosen wouldn't count due to the trade) should see a big jump in their win total (4 or more wins.)

Edited May 5, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[ALLEN1QB]

11+ wins

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, ALLEN1QB said:

11+ wins

 

....is rare for any team. 

 

....but I love your optimism!!! 

 

I really don’t know what to expect this year with SO MUCH change. Could be 5-6, and 11 isn’t impossible. My crystal ball is in the shop. 

[Misterbluesky]

17 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

....is rare for any team. 

 

....but I love your optimism!!! 

 

I really don’t know what to expect this year with SO MUCH change. Could be 5-6, and 11 isn’t impossible. My crystal ball is in the shop. 

if we would win 11,Allen will be in the Pro Bowl next year.

[hemma]

If Christian Ponder can go +7, I’m thinking we pound everybody into submission.

[Augie]

36 minutes ago, Misterbluesky said:

if we would win 11,Allen will be in the Pro Bowl next year.

 

No question, these two things are closely tied. 

[TigerJ]

A few on that list might be invalid as examples.  For instance, Pat Mahomes was hardly on the field in his rookie year.  I do think the point is valid.  A pretty high percentage of QBs experience fairly significant improvement in their second year, including at least some QBs who eventually proved to be failures.

[Doc Brown]

36 minutes ago, hemma said:

If Christian Ponder can go +7, I’m thinking we pound everybody into submission.

Adrian Peterson in his prime.  2,097 yards rushing that year after tearing his ACL the season before.  Even Christian Ponder couldn't screw that up.

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

4 hours ago, Augie said:

 

....is rare for any team. 

 

....but I love your optimism!!! 

 

I really don’t know what to expect this year with SO MUCH change. Could be 5-6, and 11 isn’t impossible. My crystal ball is in the shop. 

last year we won 6 games with half the talent we have now and a tougher schedule.  

 

I don't know about 11 but 6.5 is ridiculous.

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

2 hours ago, TigerJ said:

A few on that list might be invalid as examples.  For instance, Pat Mahomes was hardly on the field in his rookie year.  I do think the point is valid.  A pretty high percentage of QBs experience fairly significant improvement in their second year, including at least some QBs who eventually proved to be failures.

 

The Chiefs were not sub .500 and Mahommes did not start 8+ his rookie year so he is not one of the 12 of 14.

[Augie]

1 minute ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

last year we won 6 games with half the talent we have now and a tougher schedule.  

 

I don't know about 11 but 6.5 is ridiculous.

 

 

I think so too, but my point is it’s so much new stuff, I’m not sure what to expect. I lean toward the positive and think anything less than 9 wins is a huge disappointment. That said, I’m not sure exactly what this is going to look like. All the new starters on offense (almost literally ALL), new coaches, schemes, etc. Lots of change. Who knows how quickly this comes together? 

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I think so too, but my point is it’s so much new stuff, I’m not sure what to expect. I lean toward the positive and think anything less than 9 wins is a huge disappointment. That said, I’m not sure exactly what this is going to look like. All the new starters on offense (almost literally ALL), new coaches, schemes, etc. Lots of change. Who knows how quickly this comes together? 

ikr?  and for 20 years, we've been conditioned to expect to be disappointed.

 

I think by the end of this year, we will begin to expect better.  

[freddyjj]

Manuel for Bills needs to be dropped.  Orton started majority of games in 2014

[JESSEFEFFER]

13 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Manuel for Bills needs to be dropped.  Orton started majority of games in 2014

You are looking at this wrong.  This is a view of post year 1 and pre year 2 situations and how often the team record improved at least 1 win from year 1 to year 2.  I am not any kind of serious gambler but if the situation is defined as:

1)  Year 1 with a rookie QB with ~8 or more starts.

 

2)  The Year 1 seasonal record being sub .500 .

 

History shows at least a 1 game improvement 12 of 14 times.  One of the two losers was Glennon who was a 3rd round pick and did not play much in Year 2.  Without looking at the particular story, I do not believe that he was ever expected to be the franchise QB so he might be realistically excluded from the profile.  It might then be 12 of 13.  

 

As for Manuel being pulled after 2 and 2, he would have needed to go 5 and 7 the rest of the way to be fully involved with making a 1 game improvement.

Edited May 7, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER