Formerly Allan in MD Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 This team has so many new "pieces" it's hard to know when and if it will jell. But if it occurs early, and Allen improves as hopefully he will, we could be looking at 10-6.
Augie Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 Well, we have NEVER actually WON a Super Bowl before, so.......? It’s really hard to tell at this point. We have a lot of young guys I have high hopes for, but they have to actually do it. Prove themselves. And Allen is #1 on that list. I’m certainly encouraged by his finish last year, but if the QB isn’t “the guy”, the rest can only get you into the no-man’s land of mediocrity, or a little better.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 31 minutes ago, thurst44 said: Thing is, Allen has already shown himself better at winning games than Darnold thus far. How you figure that? Team: Bills ranked considerably higher than Jets on D -> Bills D doing more to help O win games Jets ranked considerably higher than Bills on O -> Jets generating more offense QB: Allen 53% completions, 6.5 YPA, 173 ypg, 10 TD to 12 INT for 0.83 TD/INT Darnold 58% completions, 6.9 YPA, 220 ypg, 17 TD to 12 INT for 1.4 TD/INT Neither QB meets the somewhat-controversial criteria*** I developed in the past for "successful NFL QB" (meaning a guy you can win with if other pieces are good), which are: Greater than 59% completions, 6.5 ypa, TD/INT 1.5 and floor somewhere around 200-220 YPG passing At present, though, Darnold comes closer to those standards. In their head-to-head meeting, Allen-led offense stalled and settled for a FG; Darnold-led offense drove down the field for a game-winning TD; Allen with a minute left threw a pick I don't want to dis on either guy, they're both rookies and arguably Allen had less to work with than Darnold in terms of season-long mentoring and offensive support. I just don't see how it translates to "Allen has already shown himself better at winning games" by any reasonably objective criteria. ***they are controversial because they look so minimal, it's the totality - hitting 4 of 4 criteria - that proves long-term predictive
thurst44 Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: How you figure that? Team: Bills ranked considerably higher than Jets on D -> Bills D doing more to help O win games Jets ranked considerably higher than Bills on O -> Jets generating more offense QB: Allen 53% completions, 6.5 YPA, 173 ypg, 10 TD to 12 INT for 0.83 TD/INT Darnold 58% completions, 6.9 YPA, 220 ypg, 17 TD to 12 INT for 1.4 TD/INT Neither QB meets the somewhat-controversial criteria*** I developed in the past for "successful NFL QB" (meaning a guy you can win with if other pieces are good), which are: Greater than 59% completions, 6.5 ypa, TD/INT 1.5 and floor somewhere around 200-220 YPG passing At present, though, Darnold comes closer to those standards. In their head-to-head meeting, Allen-led offense stalled and settled for a FG; Darnold-led offense drove down the field for a game-winning TD; Allen with a minute left threw a pick I don't want to dis on either guy, they're both rookies and arguably Allen had less to work with than Darnold in terms of season-long mentoring and offensive support. I just don't see how it translates to "Allen has already shown himself better at winning games" by any reasonably objective criteria. ***they are controversial because they look so minimal, it's the totality - hitting 4 of 4 criteria - that proves long-term predictive My point was not that Allen looks better in stats or has "looked" better in games, but that with supposedly terrible supporting casts, Allen has done better at winning ACTUAL games, one is 5-5 in complete games, the other 4-9. I meant so far if that wasn't clear... more to make the point that Darnold was looking more promising than Allen in terms of winning games which is what this thread is ultimately talking about. Ok, I'll make it simpler. Allen did better at winning games in 2018 than Darnold did, and by a decent margin. And the head-to-head, while interesting, is pretty meaningless as it is ONE data point. By that logic, Jeff Hostetter is a better QB than Jim Kelly. He was on that day. That's Darnold's only game-winning drive so far. Allen has three in fewer games. Further, Allen's success came at the end of the season. Darnold only won that last game. I wasn't saying that it proved anything, except that one of them should not be getting that much better press than the other if we are talking about winning and losing. Allen has actually been better at it so far and at the end of last season. These all seem like "reasonably objective criteria" I guess what gets me a bit annoyed is that pundits act as if Allen can't win, when he did win games with a team that these same people would make fun of the offensive roster. Edited May 2, 2019 by thurst44
Homey D. Clown Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 3 hours ago, foreboding said: We are nothing if not optimists every damn year. When is the last time you truly think we had a team that you think seemed to have this level of talent? And also, why do only a few media pundits see it? Are we all wearing the proverbial red, white and blue glasses? https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/05/01/mmqb-buffalo-bills-have-their-best-roster-in-years/ yes, and I am also wearing them, but in all reality, I love this team the most from draft day right up to the season's first game. I honestly don't get upset or excited when they win or lose too much, as the last 20 years have beaten the belief this team will ever be good out of me. it's really not pessimism at all, it's simply a slow simmering process that yielded a cake of apathy. after looking over the schedule, I really think a 7-9 record is the absolute ceiling.
eball Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: I think McD made an awful mistake switching from the Roman offense that they had in place. Terrible choice on his part. The offense the past 2 seasons has been an epic disaster even by Bills standards. At one point well into last season they were on pace to be the worst scoring team since the merger I believe. His defense works well though. In fairness to the perception of Rex not coaching his team up.........in 2013 he did his best coaching job and of course there were the years that he got the lowly Jets deep into the playoffs and even beat the Pats in the playoffs. He got a ton of effort and production out of patched together rosters. Wheels came off in 2014 but that happens when a coach is dead man walking........see Andy Reid's 4-12 finish in Philly. So it wasn't yet entirely clear that Rex was going to mail in his coaching effort on defense. I'll strongly disagree with this because McD is smart enough to know that "the Roman offense" is only viable if you're playing football in the days of Ancient Rome. Look at Baltimore -- sure, they ran through a pretty easy schedule but as soon as they faced a legitimate defense in the playoffs it was over. That system isn't conducive to truly competing -- I think we'll see that again this season. Now, McD chose the wrong guy (Dennison) but that wasn't even his first choice -- and he wisely moved on. Last season's early struggles (and they were awful to witness) is not because of the system but because you had a combination of Peterman and then a rookie playing behind a crap OL with crap skill personnel. I'll take the visible signs of improvement in the final 1/3 to 1/4 of the season as evidence things will turn around.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 1 hour ago, ScottLaw said: I'd argue with strictly better coaching they are a playoff team and probably a legitimate one. The fall of that really good defense from 2014 really screwed them in 2015. No, but the [Rex Ryan -edit] hire made 0 sense. Continuity for a top defense and ferocious pass rush is as logical as it gets.... They went with a guy who runs his mouth and runs a completely different type of defense with different personnel needs. Just really bad decision. Ryan talked such a great line after the hire, "I'm a football coach, I'm not a 3-4 coach or a 4-3 coach. I don't need guys that fit a scheme, just give me good football players" blah blah blah. Then what did he do, install his same 'ol scheme regardless of how it fit or whether he had the hosses to make it work optimally. After that became clear, the whole 2016 draft was "get the players Rex wants" thus Shaq Lawson, Reggie Ragland etc etc. My take home, when hiring a coach, look at what he's done in the past, don't listen to his line of blarney malarky.
thurst44 Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Homey D. Clown said: yes, and I am also wearing them, but in all reality, I love this team the most from draft day right up to the season's first game. I honestly don't get upset or excited when they win or lose too much, as the last 20 years have beaten the belief this team will ever be good out of me. it's really not pessimism at all, it's simply a slow simmering process that yielded a cake of apathy. after looking over the schedule, I really think a 7-9 record is the absolute ceiling. The schedule is one of the easiest in the league... Homey, don't play that!
MJS Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 (edited) Yeah, I'll say 2015. I think we have better coaching and overall management though. Edited May 2, 2019 by MJS
Dopey Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 2 hours ago, skibum said: 2015, which was a stacked roster on paper at that time. Mario, Jerry, Richie, McCoy, Cordy Glenn, Aaron WIlliams, Sammy and Robert Woods at WR, a full compliment of solid OL, Kyle, Dareus, GIlmore/Darby, Clay (who was still considered really good at the time). And what happened? Mediocrity. That's why I'm not getting too pumped up about this year. Remember, there are 31 other teams also trying to win. I wanna blame Rex Ryan and his circus. When he was hired, I worried about his undisciplined style of coaching and trying to put a square peg in a round hole. He set us back a few years. That was definitely a team that could have done damage if we kept Schwartz and brought in an offensive coordinator worth a !@!*.
HOUSE Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 (edited) You can't lose forever. I am cured of Evil demons.. Best team since 1960. Praise The Lord Brother Edited May 2, 2019 by HOUSE 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, thurst44 said: My point was not that Allen looks better in stats or has "looked" better in games, but that with supposedly terrible supporting casts, Allen has done better at winning ACTUAL games, one is 5-5 in complete games, the other 4-9. I meant so far if that wasn't clear... more to make the point that Darnold was looking more promising than Allen in terms of winning games which is what this thread is ultimately talking about. Ok, I'll make it simpler. Allen did better at winning games in 2018 than Darnold did, and by a decent margin. The problem with that premise is that QB don't win games; teams do. In those 5 wins, the Bills D held the opponents to 17 points or less 5 times (6, 12, 13, 17) and only allowed 21 points the 5th. In the 4 NYJ wins, Darnold had to cover more points (16, 17, 20, 34). He had a loss where the Jets put up 38 points, but the D allowed 44. How do you match that with your conclusion that it's Allen who is 'better at winning games'? I want Allen to be "The Man" for us as much as anyone does, but I won't let it blind me to hard football facts - like the fact that winning a game depends upon many factors beyond the QB, including how many points the defense allows. Just now, HOUSE said: You can't lose forever. I am cured of Evil demons.. Perhaps you should market the cure to those of us with BBFS (battered buffalo fan syndrome) ? 2
Dopey Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 I like the off season we've had, but it's only on paper. We need the o-line to gel, and that's a lot of new moving parts. It's not a given, especially early in the season. I've learned to have a wait and see attitude towards this franchise.
thurst44 Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: The problem with that premise is that QB don't win games; teams do. In those 5 wins, the Bills D held the opponents to 17 points or less 5 times (6, 12, 13, 17) and only allowed 21 points the 5th. In the 4 NYJ wins, Darnold had to cover more points (16, 17, 20, 34). He had a loss where the Jets put up 38 points, but the D allowed 44. How do you match that with your conclusion that it's Allen who is 'better at winning games'? I want Allen to be "The Man" for us as much as anyone does, but I won't let it blind me to hard football facts - like the fact that winning a game depends upon many factors beyond the QB, including how many points the defense allows. Perhaps you should market the cure to those of us with BBFS (battered buffalo fan syndrome) ? Yikes, really Hapless? I'm not even saying Allen is "the man," just that the national press idea that he "can't win games" or Darnold has shown more is annoying since he has done well so far winning actual games. I've even said today in this forum that I was a doubter, but feeling that "maybe I'm wrong." Don't act like I'm being all Pollyanna-ish about it. I'm just saying, unscientifically, that the idea he "can't win games" should align with what's going on in the field. Sorry if I seem a bit defensive, but it's annoying when one is making a perfectly reasonable comment and someone acts like it's hyperbolic and blinded by fandom. He's done better at winning games than people could reasonably expect at this point. How do I match it? I match that with the idea that when it comes to getting to a final score that's higher than the other team, Allen has had more experience winning in a totally unscientific, not yet with a meaningful sample manner. Nor am I saying that it takes less than a whole team to win games. I just said that he has done well "winning games" so far, and better than Darnold. I don't see where this is all that controversial. All that being said, your stats are cool. Let's go Bills! Hopefully, as I imagine we both feel, Allen proves it in a more meaningful way next year, particularly bracketing the season head-to-head. Edited May 2, 2019 by thurst44
Chandler#81 Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Yeah the 2015 roster was better than what it looks like they have now. One of the things that stands out about this roster is the lack of actual star players. There are some guys we hope will be........Allen, Edmunds, Foster, Dawkins, Oliver.........but no actual hardware like the recent All Pros like the 2015 team sported. Star players? I think we have the only ‘Star’ player in Lotulelei. Also think you’re conveniently omitting Tre White, Mitch Morse, Jerry Hughes, Houscka, Roberts, Hyde & Poyer to further your claim. Individually, our Safety’s likely aren’t in any analysts top 5, but as a tandem, they are widely considered as such. They may be their own worst enemies in getting any national cred, given how well they play 2 different positions under the same name. Would any team Not want any of these these guys? If you answer ‘no’, then they’re League stars. Edited May 2, 2019 by Chandler#81 1
boater Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 I'm starting to get uncomfortable with all the optimism and high expectations around here. We are chock full of player talent--but many are new to each other and the system. They'll need time to gel as a unit. The coaches are pretty much the same coaches as last year. You could view that as a positive in the continuity department, or you could view that as a negative in that their 2018 performance was meh. Josh Allen is good no doubt. But it's too early to anoint him a great. He's going to make second year mistakes. He needs time as well. I'm optimistic, though on a slower schedule than others around here.
thurst44 Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 Just now, boater said: I'm starting to get uncomfortable with all the optimism and high expectations around here. We are chock full of player talent--but many are new to each other and the system. They'll need time to gel as a unit. The coaches are pretty much the same coaches as last year. You could view that as a positive in the continuity department, or you could view that as a negative in that their 2018 performance was meh. Josh Allen is good no doubt. But it's too early to anoint him a great. He's going to make second year mistakes. He needs time as well. I'm optimistic, though on a slower schedule than others around here. Look, I'm optimistic, but it's more cautious than it seems. I agree with all you say. I'm fond of the plan and can see a philosophy behind it and I like it. As for 2019, what annoys me more is when someone says something to the effect: "this team can't be better than 7-9 or 8-8." I think saying this team can't be worse than 8-8 is just as ill-informed, but it bothers me less as relentless negativity bothers me more than runaway optimism -- at least when it comes to sport (it's a game, please don't try to convince me i should be miserable). This team could be anything from 16-0 to 0-16 depending on how everything shakes out. Realistically, the window is probably smaller, but it's wider than most people believe b/c there are SO many x-factors. Take Miami for example, so many years when people have predicted them to have a 2-14 or 3-13 record, they contend for a wildcard, and other years when they are supposed to be a contender, they find themselves battling for the number one pick.
DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 best team since? I will have to allow this season to play out before making any past comparisons.
without a drought Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 Better than last year is expected, that's as far as I'll go.
GunnerBill Posted May 2, 2019 Posted May 2, 2019 4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Yeah the 2015 roster was better than what it looks like they have now. One of the things that stands out about this roster is the lack of actual star players. There are some guys we hope will be........Allen, Edmunds, Foster, Dawkins, Oliver.........but no actual hardware like the recent All Pros like the 2015 team sported. The 2015 team is the most talented Bills team of my fandom. Sadly we wasted it on Rex Ryan. 1
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