NewEra Posted July 14, 2019 Posted July 14, 2019 21 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said: I think they should cover but I don't bet the Bills. If you're a fan, like all of us here are, youre gonna be swayed by fandom. Just stay away. I have the Ravens at under 8.5. I can't see them winning 9. Their line fluctuates a decent amount. Since I move to LV 21 years ago I’ve been betting on or against the Bills 10-16 times a year, every year. I don’t keep a running total but I believe I’m picking bills games around a 65%ish percent clip against the spread, moneyline and o/u 1
row_33 Posted July 14, 2019 Posted July 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, NewEra said: Since I move to LV 21 years ago I’ve been betting on or against the Bills 10-16 times a year, every year. I don’t keep a running total but I believe I’m picking bills games around a 65%ish percent clip against the spread, moneyline and o/u Yeah okay....
plenzmd1 Posted July 14, 2019 Posted July 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, NewEra said: Since I move to LV 21 years ago I’ve been betting on or against the Bills 10-16 times a year, every year. I don’t keep a running total but I believe I’m picking bills games around a 65%ish percent clip against the spread, moneyline and o/u sure as hell hope you have made betting the Bills your full time job...if i could hit 65 % winners i would be a rich man !
NewEra Posted July 14, 2019 Posted July 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, row_33 said: Yeah okay.... Did you read? Apparently not. If you did, you’d realize that’s it’s not very hard 9 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: sure as hell hope you have made betting the Bills your full time job...if i could hit 65 % winners i would be a rich man ! 65% vs the spread, money line and o/u. maybe some people don’t know what the money line is
plenzmd1 Posted July 14, 2019 Posted July 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, NewEra said: Did you read? Apparently not. If you did, you’d realize that’s it’s not very hard 65% vs the spread, money line and o/u. maybe some people don’t know what the money line is are you not saying you hit 65% winners? Are are you saying for every $1000 you bet, you lose 350?
NewEra Posted July 14, 2019 Posted July 14, 2019 (edited) 50 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: are you not saying you hit 65% winners? Are are you saying for every $1000 you bet, you lose 350? I believe my ratio would be around 65% win% betting on games vs the spread (have to win/lose within a certain amount), money line (win or lose) and over/under total points scored. 65% isn’t very good if every bet was a money line bet. The majority are against the spread but I’d have to guess 15-20% of the bets are money line. my point of saying this was in response to someone saying that we shouldn’t bet the Bills due to personal bias’ as Bills fans. I don’t have a betting bias towards the Bills. When I bet against them, I forget about the bet til after the game. The only thing that matters is a W. It’s just hard to pass up good value at times edit; I’d say the majority of my wagers against the Bills are money line bets that are -200+. Usually covers hence the high percentage Edited July 14, 2019 by NewEra
plenzmd1 Posted July 14, 2019 Posted July 14, 2019 1 minute ago, NewEra said: I believe my ratio would be around 65% win% betting on games vs the spread (have to win/lose within a certain amount), money line (win or lose) and over/under total points scored. 65% isn’t very good if every bet was a money line bet. The majority are against the spread but I’d have to guess 15-20% of the bets are money line. my point of saying this was in response to someone saying that we shouldn’t bet the Bills due to personal bias’ as Bills fans. I don’t have a betting bias towards the Bills. When I bet against them, I forget about the bet til after the game. The only thing that matters is a W. It’s just hard to pass up good value at times So i usually associate moneyline with taking the dog..that is pretty much only side I ever bet. But maybe oyu are saying you sometimes also play the favorite on the moneyline That being said, 65% winners is considered elite level win percentage, and i do mean elite, like almost impossible. Read these articles..says 70% is almost statistically impossible https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/what-are-realistic-expectations-when-betting-on-the-nfl/ https://drbobsports.com/sports-betting-as-an-investment/ So as I say, if you are hitting 65%..quit your job and do that poop full time!
NewEra Posted July 14, 2019 Posted July 14, 2019 41 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: So i usually associate moneyline with taking the dog..that is pretty much only side I ever bet. But maybe oyu are saying you sometimes also play the favorite on the moneyline That being said, 65% winners is considered elite level win percentage, and i do mean elite, like almost impossible. Read these articles..says 70% is almost statistically impossible https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/what-are-realistic-expectations-when-betting-on-the-nfl/ https://drbobsports.com/sports-betting-as-an-investment/ So as I say, if you are hitting 65%..quit your job and do that poop full time! Yeah, I’ll play favorites on the ML. Sometimes straight bets but usually in a 2-3 teamer 1
RiotAct Posted July 15, 2019 Posted July 15, 2019 still easier money than playing perfect basic-strategy blackjack!
Augie Posted July 15, 2019 Posted July 15, 2019 (edited) I suspect in a future thread, not too far off, “the vig” will be closely connected to @plenzmd1. He seems to know too much about the industry, and he travels with a large band of reconnaissance personnel. Trust them at your own risk. But have a damn good time either way! . Edited July 15, 2019 by Augie
Aussie Joe Posted October 9, 2019 Posted October 9, 2019 Anyone here actually bet this? I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship...
DBilz2500 Posted October 9, 2019 Posted October 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Anyone here actually bet this? I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship... I put $5000 on the over. ??? 1 1
billieve420 Posted October 9, 2019 Posted October 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said: Anyone here actually bet this? I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship... I wish I had the patience to make these season long bets. I have $750 tied up on Jacob Degrom to win the Cy Young which I made a few weeks ago and it is annoying me.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 9, 2019 Posted October 9, 2019 On 4/30/2019 at 8:27 AM, ddaryl said: Just took out a 3rd mortgage. This ones gonna pay big. I just know it 3 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said: I put $5000 on the over. ??? But does your wife know?
PromoTheRobot Posted October 9, 2019 Posted October 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Anyone here actually bet this? I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship... I'm not a big roller and the payout wasn't worth the effort of driving to a sportsbook. But I did take +450 on the Bills making the playoffs back in August. I also took +1200 on winning the division. 1
DBilz2500 Posted October 9, 2019 Posted October 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: But does your wife know? She has no idea that a nice Christmas present is coming this year
Aussie Joe Posted October 9, 2019 Posted October 9, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, billieve420 said: I wish I had the patience to make these season long bets. I have $750 tied up on Jacob Degrom to win the Cy Young which I made a few weeks ago and it is annoying me. Yeah, its normally not my thing either.. but thought that the Bills odds were more than generous so thought I would give it a go... Wish I had bet the over 6.5... with games against Miami x 2, Jets and Washington, they could probably put Peterman back out there and cover this... Edited October 9, 2019 by Aussie Joe 1
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 9, 2019 Posted October 9, 2019 On 5/22/2019 at 7:23 AM, plenzmd1 said: Someone like the bills winning 8 This guy's banking some coin. 1 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 9, 2019 Posted October 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: This guy's banking some coin. Seems like a lock but one thing I learned is that don’t gloat over a bet before it officially wins. 6
BillsQuebec Posted October 9, 2019 Posted October 9, 2019 Back in May I wagered $6,987 to win $5,269 on the Bills over 6.5 wins. Here is the proof (YouTube video). Eventually I added the following bets: Bills to win the AFC East $1,000 to win $12,000 Bills to win the AFC Championship $500 to win $33,000 Crossing my fingers! 6
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