Buffalo Bills Confirmed UDFA Signing. (2 Left)

[HuSeYiN_NYC]

25 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I think they'll be ok at WR if Foster continues to look like the guy we saw in the 2nd half of the season.

 

If not, they and Allen are going to struggle.... every other reciever is just so underwhelming, IMO.

 

 

If our O-line becomes what most of us are expecting it to be we wouldn't really rely solely on wide receivers getting open anymore... 

 

Knox imo will emerge and he can get open, Beasley in the slot has proven to get open and find soft spots on the route and we have SPEED in our receivers and we know Allen likes to take shots downfield... At worst, Allen has his legs when nothing is open... 

 

This season's offense will fall strictly on the gameplan... The question will be, can Daboll prove to be a top tier coordinator...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

I think they'll be ok at WR if Foster continues to look like the guy we saw in the 2nd half of the season.

 

If not, they and Allen are going to struggle.... every other reciever is just so underwhelming, IMO.

 

The problem Beane and McDermott face this season (and my nose bleeds for them) is that they allowed/enabled the complete depletion of the WR corps AND the depletion of the OL.  Blahblah cap space/ unexpected retirement of Woods/ Incognito going around the bend/ needed to give up a player of value like Glenn as draft ammo - the point is, all this happened before FA and before the draft, we were already thin at RT and questionable at RG.   There were some decent FA OLmen available last year and Bodine and a Round 5 rookie G were apparently the most they were willing to invest while letting some servicable guys like Henderson and (the year before) Kujo walk.

A stout OL and a strong run game are well known to be a rookie QB's best friend, and we gave our rookie neither.  So now we piled up on FA acquisitions at OL and drafted an OLman in the 2nd round, and we hope that's fixed.  But hope is where we are right now.  I was scared for last year's OL and many told me I was too negative.  I wasn't wrong.

Meanwhile, I think they were focused on WR and truly believed they had built a serviceable or better WR corps by trading for former 1st round pick Benjamin and drafting Zay Jones in the 2nd round the previous year, then bringing in some vets.  McDermott and whoever advised him mis-evaluated Woods while his initial WR coach wanted "his guy" Zay.  Bean thought a large catch radius guy like Benjamin would be more appropriate than Watkins - which would be true, if the former still wanted it.  By pedigree, it doesn't look too bad - 2nd round, former first rounder, some experience in the room.  Except that Benjamin's fire for the game turned out to be embers, and Zay hasn't (to date) been "all that".

 

A plan that depends upon a single UDFA proving out is probably not a good plan.  I don't think that's their plan - I think they are hoping for solid production from Brown and Cole Beasley (who are both guys that can play, albeit on their downward slide), as well as Foster taking the edge off for Zay.  If the OL is "all that", and we have a reliable run game this year, it may be OK - but it does depend upon Foster as well as Brown and Beasley still having "get up and go" for the game. 

 

It's really still about the OL, IMO.

I'd like to be hopeful.  Right now, Beane's judgement of OL and offensive skill players is an open question, and McDermott's judgement of OL and offensive skill coaches is too.
 

31 minutes ago, HuSeYiN_NYC said:

This season's offense will fall strictly on the gameplan... The question will be, can Daboll prove to be a top tier coordinator...

 

That is another question.  He has done some clever stuff, and he has done some puzzling stuff IMO.

[Robin]

This is great OBD are really making these move to better team and culture. Trust the Process Go Bills.

[HuSeYiN_NYC]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The problem Beane and McDermott face this season (and my nose bleeds for them) is that they allowed/enabled the complete depletion of the WR corps AND the depletion of the OL.  Blahblah cap space/ unexpected retirement of Woods/ Incognito going around the bend/ needed to give up a player of value like Glenn as draft ammo - the point is, all this happened before FA and before the draft, we were already thin at RT and questionable at RG.   There were some decent FA OLmen available last year and Bodine and a Round 5 rookie G were apparently the most they were willing to invest while letting some servicable guys like Henderson and (the year before) Kujo walk.

A stout OL and a strong run game are well known to be a rookie QB's best friend, and we gave our rookie neither.  So now we piled up on FA acquisitions at OL and drafted an OLman in the 2nd round, and we hope that's fixed.  But hope is where we are right now.  I was scared for last year's OL and many told me I was too negative.  I wasn't wrong.

Meanwhile, I think they were focused on WR and truly believed they had built a serviceable or better WR corps by trading for former 1st round pick Benjamin and drafting Zay Jones in the 2nd round the previous year, then bringing in some vets.  McDermott and whoever advised him mis-evaluated Woods while his initial WR coach wanted "his guy" Zay.  Bean thought a large catch radius guy like Benjamin would be more appropriate than Watkins - which would be true, if the former still wanted it.  By pedigree, it doesn't look too bad - 2nd round, former first rounder, some experience in the room.  Except that Benjamin's fire for the game turned out to be embers, and Zay hasn't (to date) been "all that".

 

A plan that depends upon a single UDFA proving out is probably not a good plan.  I don't think that's their plan - I think they are hoping for solid production from Brown and Cole Beasley (who are both guys that can play, albeit on their downward slide), as well as Foster taking the edge off for Zay.  If the OL is "all that", and we have a reliable run game this year, it may be OK - but it does depend upon Foster as well as Brown and Beasley still having "get up and go" for the game. 

 

It's really still about the OL, IMO.

I'd like to be hopeful.  Right now, Beane's judgement of OL and offensive skill players is an open question, and McDermott's judgement of OL and offensive skill coaches is too.
 

 

That is another question.  He has done some clever stuff, and he has done some puzzling stuff IMO.

 

I agree on your response to my post. As for your response to the other poster, don't forget we also had Castillo... O.G. Bobby Johnson is a breath of fresh air for me personally... I'm glad McDermott was able to let go of coaches he didn't see benefitting the team.

 

That was my fear with McDermott. I thought since he hired them, he would never fire them but McDermott keeps surprising me and I wouldn't trade him for any other coach at the moment... I want to succeed as the Bills organization but i want to succeed with McDermott. The guy deserves it...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I saw a stat that there were over 500+ UDFA's on NFL rosters last year and that was more than any 2 rounds of the draft combined.

UDFA doesn't normally yield studs but it's common for UDFA's to fill out rosters.     MANY UDFA's(new or from previous drafts) should make your team every year.

 

500 UDFA/32 teams means 15-16 UDFA per team.  Given the average NFL career of 3.3 years, that would be roughly 4-5 players per draft.

I saw a statistic a couple years back that there were 64 (rookie) UDFA on opening day rosters across the NFL, or 2 players per draft.

 

It doesn't surprise me that there would be a significant pool of UDFA in the NFL, given it's a much larger labor pool than the draft and that work ethic/"fire within" can outdo a talented guy who gets paid and slacks, but 4-5 players per draft seems high, unless they're counting the scout team.

OK, @PromoTheRobot, maybe the hit rate is higher than Crater of Diamonds park.

Edited April 29, 2019 by Hapless Bills Fan
clarify 64 rookie

[Buffalo Barbarian]

We still need two more ?

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

5 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

We still need two more ?

 

 

Room for two more, but the roster spots could be used for vets as well (ie Ansah, trade for Rudolph, etc)

[snamsnoops]

16 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Room for two more, but the roster spots could be used for vets as well (ie Ansah, trade for Rudolph, etc)

Now that the draft is complete... I could see the bills still being interested in signing Ziggy!

[YoloinOhio]

11 minutes ago, snamsnoops said:

Now that the draft is complete... I could see the bills still being interested in signing Ziggy!

Reading the tea leaves only here - I think they have an offer out to him now that he had his shoulder checked out again, and he’s trying to get more money. He just visited ravens. Not going to be cleared to play until August so no rush to sign. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

Room for two more, but the roster spots could be used for vets as well (ie Ansah, trade for Rudolph, etc)

 

They have a bunch of guys coming in for rookie mini camp.  Leaving a couple slots open allows them to sign a couple of them to bring forward through spring OTAs, even if they do eventually trade for or sign someone.  As far as invites to rookie mini camp, it seems to me it might be more enticing if there are actually a couple roster spots open the minicamp guys could fill, then if the team is chock-full so the only way they keep you is if you show yourself better than someone already signed.

 

But that could be a distinction without a difference, I don't know.

38 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Reading the tea leaves only here - I think they have an offer out to him now that he had his shoulder checked out again, and he’s trying to get more money. He just visited ravens. Not going to be cleared to play until August so no rush to sign. 

 

He can't play, but wouldn't he be allowed in the facility to learn the playbook and build familiarity with the scheme and other players?

 

I would think at some point McBeane would be "fish or cut bait, fellah"

[buffaloboyinATL]

Hopefully we can get Jackson onto the practice squad. Would be fun if he could develop into Allen’s backup in a year or 2.

[billsredneck1]

Quote

 

does anyone know if khalil hodge lb from ub was picked up by any team? i can't seem to find any up to date info.

[akm0404]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

A plan that depends upon a single UDFA proving out is probably not a good plan.  I don't think that's their plan - I think they are hoping for solid production from Brown and Cole Beasley (who are both guys that can play, albeit on their downward slide), as well as Foster taking the edge off for Zay.  If the OL is "all that", and we have a reliable run game this year, it may be OK - but it does depend upon Foster as well as Brown and Beasley still having "get up and go" for the game. 

 

It's really still about the OL, IMO.

 

IMO, I can embrace the following approach to building a competent NFL offense:

 

1. Acquire a good QB

2. Protect said QB

3. Acquire weapons for said QB

 

Sometimes you try to shortcut the process and and get the weapons first (*cough watkins*), but this is how I'd approach things.  #3 becomes easier in free agency when you take care of #1 and #2 as well.  Not saying we 100% have accomplished #1 and #2, but I have reason to be optimistic.

[PromoTheRobot]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My apologies, I meant by 2017, no one considered Tavon Austin... I mis-typed.  He was considered a epic bust in StL along Watkins lines, and he started to fall off a cliff in 2016 despite high receiving yards and has never climbed back.

 

For the rest of it, since I did feel the need to apologize for my error, it seems like a whole lot of emojis and snark around one reasonable additional point that the Rams also drafted a wide receiver, Josh Reynolds, in the 4th.  If you want to make a huge distinction between signing FA and drafting guys, I don't see it from the viewpoint of resource allocation when cap dollars not an issue, but whateves.

I can usually tell when someone is interested in discussion, and when they are driven by an overwhelming desire TO BE RIGHT DANGNABBIT and if I can't, the "drinnking holiday today that I was unaware of" crack might be a clue.  Well, that and the emoji litter.

 

 

You sure?  Something like 400 UDFA/yr get a look-see. 

How many stick on a team after Turk day, and how many go on to become players?

 

Depends upon how you look at it I guess.

 

According to this Forbes article, 13.6% of NFL starters in 2014 were UDFAs. Only 1st and 2nd round draft picks had more starters. Who knew?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, akm0404 said:

 

IMO, I can embrace the following approach to building a competent NFL offense:

 

1. Acquire a good QB

2. Protect said QB

3. Acquire weapons for said QB

 

Sometimes you try to shortcut the process and and get the weapons first (*cough watkins*), but this is how I'd approach things.  #3 becomes easier in free agency when you take care of #1 and #2 as well.  Not saying we 100% have accomplished #1 and #2, but I have reason to be optimistic.

 

Well, that's certainly the approach we're following. 

 

I think there's an argument to be made that several potentially good QB have been ruined by lack of protection early in their career.  But others have countered with the belief that a QB who is ruined by taking a pounding really wasn't all that.  Another argument is that a rookie QB's best friend is a great rushing attack, since it forces the D to be multi-dimensional.

 

It's sort of an "article of faith" either way since one never gets to "do the experiment" by taking two equivalent rookie QB and providing one with the 2016 Dallas Cowboys OL and Zeke Elliot, and another with the 2018 Bills OL and RBs, and seeing what happens.

[akm0404]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, that's certainly the approach we're following. 

 

I think there's an argument to be made that several potentially good QB have been ruined by lack of protection early in their career.  But others have countered with the belief that a QB who is ruined by taking a pounding really wasn't all that.  Another argument is that a rookie QB's best friend is a great rushing attack, since it forces the D to be multi-dimensional.

 

It's sort of an "article of faith" either way since one never gets to "do the experiment" by taking two equivalent rookie QB and providing one with the 2016 Dallas Cowboys OL and Zeke Elliot, and another with the 2018 Bills OL and RBs, and seeing what happens.

 

Certainly a well-reasoned post that I can't really take exception to.  Though one could make an argument that Dak Prescott having a starting NFL QB gig lends some credence to the premise that a stud OL can help make a QB thrive.  You know, cuz he stinks   

 

You're right though, it's all a philosophical thing, and there are hundreds of variables that can't be controlled for.  Things change, players come and go, get injured, and new crops of players enter the league every year.  It's a dynamic thing, but I at least think we're _TRYING_ to do something methodical and reasonable, as opposed to what at times seemed to be randomly adding players willy nilly.

Edited April 29, 2019 by akm0404

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

According to this Forbes article, 13.6% of NFL starters in 2014 were UDFAs. Only 1st and 2nd round draft picks had more starters. Who knew?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/

 

Interesting find, Promo, thanks! 

It's not a surprise to me, because the sheer volume of UDFA is higher, and I don't think the talent differential between UDFA and the 5-7 round is that great and all kinds of things influence whether a guy goes in the 6th or 7th that aren't necessarily reflective of talent or work ethic.  For example, I think we drafted Austin Proehl last year essentially as a favor from McBeane to his dad.

The thing is, each team typically signs more UDFA each year than they have draft picks.  Most teams have 6-9 draft picks and sign 10-14 rookie UDFA each spring.

So almost 2x as many rookie UDFA as draft picks are signed each year.

 

My thinking was that out of, say, 400 rookie UDFA initially signed (comparison: 250-ish draft picks), each team keeps maybe 2 on the opening-day 53 man roster, or 0.5% odds of making the team.  Crater of Diamonds had roughly 455,000 diamond seekers last year (roughly one out of every 4 visitors pays the fee and goes at it), and certified 445 diamond finds, or about 1% odds.

 

Now the source BadOl alluded to implies it's more like 4-5 rookie UDFA on each roster each year, which seems high to me - but if so that would be more like 1-1.2%, so actually better odds.  I can't find a good way to verify without a lot of work - for example, Pro Football Reference lists the expanded roster, so while the Bills have 11 UDFA rookies listed on last year's roster, it would take a bunch o' checking to see how many were on IR, how many on the scout team, and how many on the 53 man roster.  Bojorques, Foster, and Croom are the 3 I know of who saw significant playing time.

 

The point overall is that the odds of finding that diamond each visit are not dissimilar between the rookie UDFA pool and the Crater of Diamonds field.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

20 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

According to this Forbes article, 13.6% of NFL starters in 2014 were UDFAs. Only 1st and 2nd round draft picks had more starters. Who knew?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/

 

Nice article, made all the more interesting by the source!

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, akm0404 said:

 

Certainly a well-reasoned post that I can't really take exception to.  Though one could make an argument that Dak Prescott having a starting NFL QB gig lends some credence to the premise that a stud OL can help make a QB thrive.  You know, cuz he stinks   

 

You're right though, it's all a philosophical thing, and there are hundreds of variables that can't be controlled for.  Things change, players come and go, get injured, and new crops of players enter the league every year.  It's a dynamic thing, but I at least think we're _TRYING_ to do something methodical and reasonable, as opposed to what at times seemed to be randomly adding players willy nilly.

 

It's certainly a valid point that a great OL and run game and/or great WR can make a QB who maybe isn't all that, look serviceable - Prescott with Elliot may be one example of that.  Andy Dalton with AJ Green might be another.  I think Russ Wilson has developed into a good QB, but his first several years in the league, would he have looked so good without Marshawn Lynch and the OL they had?

 

Agree with you that it does seem as though we're trying to take a methodical approach, and when things don't work out as desired we do seem willing to cut our losses and move on - no GM will always make winning choices in the draft and FA so that latter is also important.  I would like nothing more than to revert to "Hopeful" about the Bills!

[Tsaikotic]

54 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

does anyone know if khalil hodge lb from ub was picked up by any team? i can't seem to find any up to date info.

dont see anything on him so far...have seen some say WR Johnson to Bucs but some sites dont show it