OldTimeAFLGuy Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said: Interesting ‘statement’ we’re making with this thread. With 30k hits, it’s 2nd only to Ed Oliver’s 1st Round gift thread with 40k+. Not sure what the message is, but it speaks to all of us. Blue collar? Support the underdog? Not happy with the Draft haul? ...LOL...how 'bout we say Greenspan's "irrational exuberance " early on and potential euphoria hopefully around the crnner??.... 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 43 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said: Because forget stats. He got balls thrown to him because there was no one else besides Foster. He doesn't run great routes, he often bobbles it when he catches it, he drops more than his share, he rarely gets YAC, he rarely knows where he is on the field with regards to the first down marker, he never breaks tackles, he is often lost near the sideline, he doesn't track the ball in the air well, he doesn't fight for the ball or win 50-50 battles, he doesn't jump for the ball well (he does gown down to the ground all the time though), he doesn't get deep well despite good speed, and rarely makes clutch plays. A lot of those stats, as posters have documented, were in garbage time. Other than that, he is the complete WR. I think you're right on about half of that. Zay did get balls thrown to him because there was no one else who might catch 'em - True. Route expectations were not high last year, but I saw better routes from Zay than anyone else on the team, even the Resigned Improved Foster. I thought he ran good routes. It's notable that his best game (93 yds, 8 of 11 for 72%) was with a vet, Barkley, throwing to him. That doesn't happen if the WR isn't exactly where the vet QB who barely practiced, expects him to be. Zay bobbled and dropped far less than the previous year, as shown by almost 20% increase in catch percentage - but clearly that still needs improvement, so I'll give you True there. I saw him track the ball and come back for it, which is something Bills WR of recent history rarely do. I saw him show good awareness of where the 1st down and sidelines are and fight for the 1st down. It's true that he doesn't jump for the ball well, that's not his game. It's also true that he doesn't get a lot of YAC, but that's partly ball placement and how he's being used. NFL's advanced stats show him as having only 2.9 expected YAC (meaning the ball was often thrown to him in fairly tight coverage and he was hit immediately), of which he gained 2.6. Not great but not too shabby either. When a WR makes a catch that will be immediately contested, many coaches teach "go to the ground" rather than be held up and have the ball stripped. Zay's speed was scouted as average, not "good", and it showed in his failure to separate against the top coverage he drew as the "no one else" guy. That wasn't supposed to be his game - someone else was supposed to be drawing the heat. I think my feeling about the term "garbage time" is well known - it's all garbage time until the comeback succeeds, but it really doesn't apply here. Jones had one game after Allen came back with significant yardage that could be described so (NWE). The other games were either wins, or close losses (less than a TD, 4 points). Has he met expectations as a 2nd round pick so far, No. Is he the total wet mess failure you describe, also No. Jones made plays last year and until we have someone proven better in a game that counts, it would be foolish in my opinion for the Bills to move on from him except for someone proven better. Lots of guys are preseason heroes. 2
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said: Interesting ‘statement’ we’re making with this thread. With 30k hits, it’s 2nd only to Ed Oliver’s 1st Round gift thread with 40k+. Not sure what the message is, but it speaks to all of us. Blue collar? Support the underdog? Not happy with the Draft haul? I think this is the thread equivalent of the immensely popular Arkansas' Crater of Diamonds State Park. People go there and pay $10 to sift through a field where about 600 diamonds a year are found. Finders, keepers. Anyone can go to a jewelry store and pay a few thousand bucks for a nice rock, but to search through a bunch of ground and find a diamond yourself for near free? Bonza! 2
Cripple Creek Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said: Interesting ‘statement’ we’re making with this thread. With 30k hits, it’s 2nd only to Ed Oliver’s 1st Round gift thread with 40k+. Not sure what the message is, but it speaks to all of us. Blue collar? Support the underdog? Not happy with the Draft haul? Very happy with the draft haul, just looking to see what diamonds in the rough we may find. 1
LSHMEAB Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Zay's speed was scouted as average, not "good", and it showed in his failure to separate against the top coverage he drew as the "no one else" guy. That wasn't supposed to be his game - someone else was supposed to be drawing the heat. I understand that Zay is not a speed receiver, but did you ever focus on his go routes? He looked like an all pro corner! It was painful to watch. This was early in the season before Foster emerged and late in the season after Foster emerged. I just don't believe he does anything well enough to make up for that lack of separation. There's poor separation and there's Zay running a 9. At any rate, Daboll should definitely ditch that. He's never going to draw a safety and he's never going to beat a corner. With the addition of Brown, I hope I never have to see that again if he is indeed part of their future plans.
Mat68 Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said: I understand that Zay is not a speed receiver, but did you ever focus on his go routes? He looked like an all pro corner! It was painful to watch. This was early in the season before Foster emerged and late in the season after Foster emerged. I just don't believe he does anything well enough to make up for that lack of separation. There's poor separation and there's Zay running a 9. At any rate, Daboll should definitely ditch that. He's never going to draw a safety and he's never going to beat a corner. With the addition of Brown, I hope I never have to see that again if he is indeed part of their future plans. He is not really an outside Wr. Imo he is best as a big Slot. Underneath and intermediate he is pretty good. Best against zone. With the addition of Brown and Beasley I think he will get much more favorable matchups and probably have his best statistical season. 1
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Part of Naamen's Achilles heel was lack of height. Height, speed, hands WR gotta have 2 out of 3 at least. Sills is 6'3" and 20 lbs heavier, not exactly a giant but those inches make a difference. Fair point. 6’3” is some odd magical height for wr.
Mr. WEO Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 5 hours ago, GunnerBill said: People on here still love him. He has a huge leg but what is the use if you are a walking disaster zone? It's hard to explain. He did nothing.
Mrbojanglezs Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 12 hours ago, ukbuffalo said: Think David sills has a great chance at making the 53 . Jones , Beasley , foster , brown , Roberts and sills Might be a competition between Duke Williams and Sills 1
TigerJ Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 One of the criticisms of Sills is that he has a thin build and is not great at fighting for 50/50 balls, not is he fast enough to use speed to get separation. Duke Williams has a slower 40 time, but he is a whole lot more physical. The winner of that competition is far from a sure thing.
BADOLBILZ Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 (edited) 4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Let's start with where I think we'd agree: the Bills have not, to date, done an effective job of providing Allen with weapons, and while they have made additions and attempts this year, one can not truthfully describe 2 non-star FA signings, a TE at the end of the 3rd round, and some UDFA WR a "supreme" effort. But to your instance, does what the Rams did truly "blow the Bills efforts out of the water"? -Kupp was drafted in the 3rd round in 2017, Goff's year 2. He had an OK, not stellar, rookie year - 800+ yds, 55+ ypg. He was looking great until injured last season. -Woods, at the time of his addition, was a 5th year former 2nd round pick who was averaging a very "meh" 45 ypg and 625 yds/season (best season ~700 yds) -Watkins, at the time of his addition, was a former 1st round pick who had 2 good seasons (1000 yds or close to it), followed by a very meh injury-hampered season The Bills, for Allen's first year had the following WR: -Zay Jones was drafted in the 2nd round. Jones had off-season surgery, and improved last year to >40 ypg for Allen's 1st year -Benjamin, at the time of his 2017 addition, was a former 1st round pick who had 2 good seasons (1000 yds or close to it) followed by an injury-hampered season that still saw 59 ypg for his trading team for Allen's second year the Bills added:-John Brown, a 6th year vet, former 3rd round pick with a 1000+ yd season for a conf. champion and otherwise 45 ypg/646 yds per season -Beasley, an 8 year vet averaging a very meh 32 ypg for his career, but who has managed 42 and 52 ypg for a young QB and an offense that was clicking I'll leave out the other stuff that the Bills unsuccessfully tried. My point is: one can argue that the OUTCOME of the Rams additions blows the OUTCOME of the Bills efforts out of the water to date, but can you truly argue that the PEDIGREE of the additions blows the Bills efforts out of the water? Both teams tried adding a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick. The former 1st round pick was a disappointment for both teams - Benjamin's 570 yds in 18 games for Buffalo moreso than Watkins 593 yds in 15 games, but it's hardly a "blowout" difference. In hindsight, Woods career took off like a rocket and he blows the doors off anything we've got, but that's not a pedigree/performance at the time of the signing difference, right? I can't agree with you that the PEDIGREE of the Rams additions blows the doors off what the Bills have tried to do. It looks to me more like a case where both teams have tried to add a good supporting cast, and with Kupp looking great in his 2nd year and Woods taking off, the Rams situation currently looks better (assuming Woods continues to play at a high level in his 7th season and Kupp comes back from his ACL OK). If Zay continues to improve and comes on in his 3rd year and if John Brown is able to contribute as he did with Flacco throwing to him (he was averaging 80 ypg in the first 7 games), and if Kupp struggles and Woods starts to trail off, it's not gonna look that different. Not as good maybe, but not fitting the "they blew our efforts out of the water" narrative. 1) You do know that the 2016 Rams had two former 1st round picks in their WR corps? Tavon Austin who went 8th overall(the Bills traded the pick to Rams) in 2013 and Kenny Brit who put up 1,000 yards THAT SEASON...Goff year 1. So not really sure how the underwhelming Zay/KB duo is material to the discussion. Even the starting points weren't all that comparable. Yawn emoji. 2) The Rams added rising skillset fits for Goff. -They got rid of Britt at the perfect time. He was a playmaker but at the expense of taking Goff from his comfort zone. -Woods was a late first round talent who the Bills took as "value" because he was there early in round 2. The Whaley talent vs. team build conundrum personified. But he was of course a misfit in Buffalo. An intermediate route specialist on a Bills team with QB's that were BEYOND hesitant to make that throw. Those throws are in Goff's wheelhouse so he was a perfect target. -Next Kupp was a steal in round 3 with a similar skillset to Woods. -In the fourth round they took the very talented Josh Reynolds who would be no worse than WR2 on the 2019 Bills depth chart. -Sammy Watkins was later added as the WR1 and as planned he literally drew the #1 CB every week(and it was an impressive group of CB's) and created huge space for Goff to throw those intermediate routes to a wide open Woods/Kupp. -Add in that they hired a HC who was a QB guy and said coach called the plays for him at the LOS and Goff was SUPREMELY propped up. ( Remember they also still had Austin and were hoping for him to break out too.) What the Bills have done for Allen is NO COMPARISON in either effort or execution. They may have wasted a similar pick on KB as the one they got for Watkins..........but that was BEFORE Allen arrived and they weren't comparable values. Unless you think KB would have gotten $16M on the open market after the 2017 season..........in which case you'd be wrong. Here's what the Bills did: -They added a couple guys in Brown and Beasley that should help Allen but they are not ascending and not "as good" of a fit for Allen's game. They are likely on the backsides of their modest careers. -Then they eschewed drafting one the past two seasons. They might have scored with Robert Foster but he hasn't been a full time starter for a season since HS so WR1 is a lotta' eggs in the basket of a guy with his track record. In short the Rams went HARD after making sure that Goff was supported. The Bills efforts to support Josh Allen have been far less inspired. Conclusion..........why is anyone even arguing this? It is what it is. Edited April 28, 2019 by BADOLBILZ
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: 1) You do know that the 2016 Rams had two former 1st round picks in their WR corps? Tavon Austin who went 8th overall(the Bills traded the pick to Rams) in 2013 and Kenny Brit who put up 1,000 yards THAT SEASON...Goff year 1. So not really sure how the underwhelming Zay/KB duo is material to the discussion. Even the starting points weren't all that comparable. Yawn emoji. 2) The Rams added rising skillset fits for Goff. -They got rid of Britt at the perfect time. He was a playmaker but at the expense of taking Goff from his comfort zone. -Woods was a late first round talent who the Bills took as "value" because he was there early in round 2. The Whaley talent vs. team build conundrum personified. But he was of course a misfit in Buffalo. An intermediate route specialist on a Bills team with QB's that were BEYOND hesitant to make that throw. Those throws are in Goff's wheelhouse so he was a perfect target. -Next Kupp was a steal in round 3 with a similar skillset to Woods. -In the fourth round they took the very talented Josh Reynolds who would be no worse than WR2 on the 2019 Bills depth chart. -Sammy Watkins was later added as the WR1 and as planned he literally drew the #1 CB every week(and it was an impressive group of CB's) and created huge space for Goff to throw those intermediate routes to a wide open Woods/Kupp. -Add in that they hired a HC who was a QB guy and said coach called the plays for him at the LOS and Goff was SUPREMELY propped up. ( Remember they also still had Austin and were hoping for him to break out too.) What the Bills have done for Allen is NO COMPARISON in either effort or execution. They may have wasted a similar pick on KB as the one they got for Watkins..........but that was BEFORE Allen arrived and they weren't comparable values. Unless you think KB would have gotten $16M on the open market after the 2017 season..........in which case you'd be wrong. Here's what the Bills did: -They added a couple guys in Brown and Beasley that should help Allen but they are not ascending and not "as good" of a fit for Allen's game. They are likely on the backsides of their modest careers. -Then they eschewed drafting one the past two seasons. They might have scored with Robert Foster but he hasn't been a full time starter for a season since HS so WR1 is a lotta' eggs in the basket of a guy with his track record. In short the Rams went HARD after making sure that Goff was supported. The Bills efforts to support Josh Allen have been far less inspired. Conclusion..........why is anyone even arguing this? It is what it is. By 2013, I don't think anyone was worried about Tavon Austin, and your topic was "improving the WR corps for the 2nd year QB" and mentioning specifically the addition of Kupp, Woods, and Watkins. My response to the point was on paper, the pedigree of the improvements don't look that dissimilar. It's only when you look at what Kupp and Woods actually did that it "blows the Bills out of the water". I believe I supported my response reasonably well. If you want to bring in guys who were already there, the QB coach, the scheme, the fit of the WR for the scheme and for the QB preferred throws, the worth of KB on the open market in 2017...you're way broadening the scope of the argument, which is fine but not a useful strategy for actually having a discussion on the original point. You either ack the point or you don't, and clearly you don't. Ciao!
BADOLBILZ Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: By 2013, I don't think anyone was worried about Tavon Austin, and your topic was "improving the WR corps for the 2nd year QB" and mentioning specifically the addition of Kupp, Woods, and Watkins. My response to the point was on paper, the pedigree of the improvements don't look that dissimilar. It's only when you look at what Kupp and Woods actually did that it "blows the Bills out of the water". I believe I supported my response reasonably well. If you want to bring in guys who were already there, the QB coach, the scheme, the fit of the WR for the scheme and for the QB preferred throws, the worth of KB on the open market in 2017...you're way broadening the scope of the argument, which is fine but not a useful strategy for actually having a discussion on the original point. You either ack the point or you don't, and clearly you don't. Ciao! 1) Austin was a bottom depth chart receiver......but for the record he was DRAFTED in 2013. Google is your friend. 2) And I wasn't broadening the scope of the argument..........YOU WERE.......by introducing players drafted or traded for before Allen even arrived. I didn't introduce KB and Zay......YOU DID. In Goff year 2 the Rams added former high first and second round picks and drafted WR's in rounds 3 and 4...........the Bills haven't even drafted a WR in either of Allen's two seasons. But at least you didn't incredulously deny you said something ONE POST AFTER YOU DID like @OldTimeAFLGuy. Is there a drinking holiday today that I was unaware of? Here is to hoping that UDFA keeps yielding the WR corps of the future for Josh Allen though. Edited April 28, 2019 by BADOLBILZ
PromoTheRobot Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I think this is the thread equivalent of the immensely popular Arkansas' Crater of Diamonds State Park. People go there and pay $10 to sift through a field where about 600 diamonds a year are found. Finders, keepers. Anyone can go to a jewelry store and pay a few thousand bucks for a nice rock, but to search through a bunch of ground and find a diamond yourself for near free? Bonza! I think the hit rate on UDFAs in the NFL is a little better.
Bills1985 Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 1 hour ago, TigerJ said: One of the criticisms of Sills is that he has a thin build and is not great at fighting for 50/50 balls, not is he fast enough to use speed to get separation. Duke Williams has a slower 40 time, but he is a whole lot more physical. The winner of that competition is far from a sure thing. Definitely some truth in that. One thing Sills did really well that allowed him to get open was having great technique at the line. He used his hands well to fight off corners playing press.
BADOLBILZ Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 7 hours ago, Rad Likes The Bills said: They got Watkins very late... there is still time but like Beane has stated they don’t seem to value a number 1 receiver they want to spread the targets around. I honestly believe they are holding out for the loaded class next year where they are pretty much guaranteed to get a great prospect no matter where we end up. The problem with that is that the successful model for developing young QB's has been to get them help in year 1 or 2.........before they suffer a beating mentally and physically. Allen had a very rough year passing the ball last season.......we grade it on a curve but anything close to a repeat of that kind of low production/turnover ratio in the passing game could be a real problem. And while it would be great to get a real WR1 in UFA next year he would still be a rookie in what could be a reclamation year for Josh Allen year 3. I have a lot of confidence that Allen can be developed but I'm starting to SMH about the half stepping the FO is doing to help him..........it NEEDS TO BE PRIORITY #1. 12 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said: I think the hit rate on UDFAs in the NFL is a little better. I saw a stat that there were over 500+ UDFA's on NFL rosters last year and that was more than any 2 rounds of the draft combined. UDFA doesn't normally yield studs but it's common for UDFA's to fill out rosters. MANY UDFA's(new or from previous drafts) should make your team every year.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 28, 2019 Posted April 28, 2019 31 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: 1) Austin was a bottom depth chart receiver......but for the record he was DRAFTED in 2013. Google is your friend. 2) And I wasn't broadening the scope of the argument..........YOU WERE.......by introducing players drafted or traded for before Allen even arrived. I didn't introduce KB and Zay......YOU DID. In Goff year 2 the Rams added former high first and second round picks and drafted WR's in rounds 3 and 4...........the Bills haven't even drafted a WR in either of Allen's two seasons. But at least you didn't incredulously deny you said something ONE POST AFTER YOU DID like @OldTimeAFLGuy. Is there a drinking holiday today that I was unaware of? Here is to hoping that UDFA keeps yielding the WR corps of the future for Josh Allen though. My apologies, I meant by 2017, no one considered Tavon Austin... I mis-typed. He was considered a epic bust in StL along Watkins lines, and he started to fall off a cliff in 2016 despite high receiving yards and has never climbed back. For the rest of it, since I did feel the need to apologize for my error, it seems like a whole lot of emojis and snark around one reasonable additional point that the Rams also drafted a wide receiver, Josh Reynolds, in the 4th. If you want to make a huge distinction between signing FA and drafting guys, I don't see it from the viewpoint of resource allocation when cap dollars not an issue, but whateves. I can usually tell when someone is interested in discussion, and when they are driven by an overwhelming desire TO BE RIGHT DANGNABBIT and if I can't, the "drinnking holiday today that I was unaware of" crack might be a clue. Well, that and the emoji litter. 24 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said: I think the hit rate on UDFAs in the NFL is a little better. You sure? Something like 400 UDFA/yr get a look-see. How many stick on a team after Turk day, and how many go on to become players? Depends upon how you look at it I guess.
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