WR situation is like going in with Peterman as starter last year

[cage]

2 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Who is so highly thought of they signed him to a reserve/futures contract.  I have a sense he'll struggle to separate in the NFL.  

 

 

I read somewhere yesterday that the plan is to run the ball and look for spots to let Allen throw long in year 2.  With the emphasis on the ground game, I can see why McBeane went away from receivers and more toward supporting the ground game this off-season.    

 

That's the kind of strategy that lends credence to the idea McD isn't enamored with throwing the ball.  So many young QBs are developing, yet Buffalo wants to keep the reins tight on Allen.  It supports the notion this HC is not offensively innovative or a dynamic thinker there, although we shall see.      

 

I think Daboll showed he's a bit more creative than that

[Doc]

Just now, BillsVet said:

Who is so highly thought of they signed him to a reserve/futures contract.  I have a sense he'll struggle to separate in the NFL.  

 

I read somewhere yesterday that the plan is to run the ball and look for spots to let Allen throw long in year 2.  With the emphasis on the ground game, I can see why McBeane went away from receivers and more toward supporting the ground game this off-season.    

 

That's the kind of strategy that lends credence to the idea McD isn't enamored with throwing the ball.  So many young QBs are developing, yet Buffalo wants to keep the reins tight on Allen.  It supports the notion this HC is not innovative, though we shall see.    

 

Duke is a complete unknown.  And the history of WR's from the CFL isn't exactly great.  IF they get anything out of him, it's gravy.  But they have enough talent at WR that it's not important that he be a stud.

 

As for running the ball more, maybe, and I have no problem with it if it allows Josh to let the game slow down for him more  Many of the current top QB's didn't start off throwing the rock a ton.  And the underlying idea was to improve the OL for both the run and pass. 

[BillsVet]

1 minute ago, cage said:

I think Daboll showed he's a bit more creative than that

 

Daboll is going to ultimately craft the offensive game-plan based on McD's guidance.  The HC may not call the plays, but the OC is implementing the HC's plan.  

 

I can see a very balanced offense run and pass that plays it conservative.  That fits with the investment on the OL in UFA and with Ford and another RB.  

[C.Biscuit97]

8 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

This all seems reasonable until you realize you've completely left out Williams and Knox, ignore the fact that Foster was the most productive rookie wideout in the league in the 2nd half of the season or ignore the fact that Beane flat out said you don't need a #1 wideout, you need guys that fit the scheme.

I addressed Knox in his draft thread.  I get the physical tools but at some point, you need to produce. DK got hurt. Why didn’t he get better numbers?  Also, with those 2 guys, he was probably open a ton.  I love upside and some production. 

 

Counting on Foster, a year after we cut him, seems very risky.  He was a guy who couldn’t play at Bama and couldn’t hold on to the ball here. I’m glad he stepped up but it seems very risky to just hope he continues that when he has struggled for 4 years to be consistent. 

 

Beane said that, yet traded for Matthews and Benjamin hoping they could be number 1.  I’m sorry in what world do you not need a number type receiver?  I guess I’d youre Tom Brady.  But Brees has Thomas.  Rodgers has Adams.  Dak has Cooper. Mahomes has kid beater and Watkins (getting paid like a 1).  Saying you don’t need a number 1 receiver is complete BS and it’s why our passing game has sucked for years.

[Mojo44]

18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Maybe the way the OP started the thread comes across bad but he has a point.  And before I get called a “hater” because I don’t praise every Bills pick, Oliver was my favorite Bills pick in years and while not my first choice, I like the Cody Ford choice, especially with his mindset.

 

but are we sure this regime can judge receiving talent:

 

- Jordan Matthews

- trading multiple picks for Kelvin Benjamin 

- trading up for Zay

- “discovering” Robert Foster at Alabama and then cutting him

 

and I like some of our guys but we don’t have a number 1 receiver or TE

 

- Brown, overpaid, 646 yards/ season

- Beasley, who I love, 467 yards/ season

- Kroft, 3rd stringer because he couldn’t beat out a guy with frying pans for hands, 165 yards/ season and averaged less than 10 yards per catch the last 3 years.

 

If you had Brady, maybe this group is good enough.  But for a young qb, this is not that good of group. I trust this regime a million percent on defense.  But honestly, they kinda suck at identifying receiving talent.  

You have no idea. 2017 was a weak year for qbs supposedly.  

 There is always uncertainty in the draft. This is not a newsflash. And, no, I do have “an idea“. It’s a rational one. The general manager seems to share that idea and I tend to trust him more than the posters on the board. And I say that with all respect. So your statement is really a non-specific generalization that doesn’t really add to the discussion.  Would you have taken one of the wide receivers available over Cody Ford?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

It is the train wreck everyone sees coming. So many of the top receivers were there for the taking with a trade up into the 2nd. Is Cole Beasly our top receiver? We have nobody that can consistently win on the outside. We don’t have guys that align with Allen’s skillset. The Titans now have Corey Davis AND AJ Brown. Allen would kill it with those guys. Buffalo definitely could have made some trade to get Brown. Instead, I don’t know if their 3rd round picks make the team in 2 years.

 

I understand that you can’t fix a broken offense like ours was in one offseason, but I feel like they are setting up Allen to struggle... again! Allen needs someone that can track and catch his deep throws, otherwise teams will cheat towards the LoS again. It’s just frustrating knowing Allen has no shot of realizing his full potential this year.

 

I understand the desire for attention and the need for hyperbole to drive it, but this is just wrong on so many ways.

 

Peterman, at the start of last season was rocking 49% completion, 63 ypg, 5 INT, and 2 TD pass (that's a TD/INT ratio of 0.4 where greater than 1.8 is acceptable).

He was a former 5th round draft choice who had shown absolutely no ability whatsoever to play in the pros.

 

Allen managed to generate 172 ypg and 53% completions on offense last year throwing to Zay Jones, Robert Foster, Kelvin "Oopsie!" Benjamin, and Jason Croom behind a rather porous OL which posed little rushing threat.  Both Cole Beasley and John Brown are genuine NFL-level players.  People seem to think well of Dawson Knox as a blocker and to feel Ole Miss has minimal passing game and a lot of hosses competing for time.

 

Would it be better if we drafted the second coming of AJ Green or Julio Jones?  Sure it would. 

 

As for the rest: the overall success rate of 3rd round picks in the NFL is something like 30%.   If teams cheat towards the LOS, it is not the deep throw (a play which takes time to develop ) but the short pass completion that must make them pay and back them off.  It is not incidental that several of the best, winningest QB in the NFL have relatively low air yards per completion and relatively high YAC in their career.

 

Is it appropriate to analogize our WR to starting Peterman?  I think the above makes clear: No, no it is not.

 

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

9 minutes ago, cage said:

 

I take the point and I liked AJ Brown as well.  However, we do have talent, coupled with a much improved OL and hopefully revitalization of the running game

 

In addition to the free agents who are all good players, we should expect improvement from Robert Foster.  I think he caught a spark and lights are turned on for him.  If we extrapolate his production in the last 7 games when he came back from the practice squad to a full season, its impressive.  Lets also assume a 10% improvement just from gaining a year of experience and going into that 2nd year.  That seems a reasonable baseline.  Coaches for years have told us that your biggest improvements come from last year's rookies.  If that stays true to form then his season might look something like this.  Is that #1 WR territory?

 

 

I hope you’re right.  But he was a huge recruit for Bama and couldn’t see the field.  Don’t forget we cut him.  Seems super risky to be so dependent on him. 

 

My fear is that we going to be here next yearcwoth questions about Allen because his weapons weren’t good enough.  We are building a Brady type receiving core and Allen isn’t that type of qb.

[Fred Slacks]

2 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

It is the train wreck everyone sees coming. So many of the top receivers were there for the taking with a trade up into the 2nd. Is Cole Beasly our top receiver? We have nobody that can consistently win on the outside. We don’t have guys that align with Allen’s skillset. The Titans now have Corey Davis AND AJ Brown. Allen would kill it with those guys. Buffalo definitely could have made some trade to get Brown. Instead, I don’t know if their 3rd round picks make the team in 2 years.

 

I understand that you can’t fix a broken offense like ours was in one offseason, but I feel like they are setting up Allen to struggle... again! Allen needs someone that can track and catch his deep throws, otherwise teams will cheat towards the LoS again. It’s just frustrating knowing Allen has no shot of realizing his full potential this year.

I feel like everyone here is contradicting themselves on this board. If any of these WR’s were clear cut #1 wideouts then they would have gone early in the first. They just aren’t. Sure there’s some talented ones. Maybe red zone type threats and stuff. But who is to say they see any of these draftable WR’s as anything better that on our roster. At this point (or even in round 3) if Beane is drafting someone then that player definitely needs to be a special teams contributor most likely. Just my opinion. But think about it logically. John Brown and Beasley aren’t playing special teams. So other WR’s who are on game day roster need to be playing special teams too. 

 

I guess I'm just not as bent out of shape because really if they weren’t there in the top 2 rounds I didn’t feel like they would push someone on our roster. Except for McLaurin in the 3rd. And he got drafted right before us. I honestly think he would have been the pick over Singletary. But I’m not going to lose my $#!+ over it. We still have our top WR’s from last season + Beasley and Brown. Maybe even Duke Williams contributes. We proved last year with a crap O-line and Foster and Zay that JA can throw for 200 yards. Now with this new focus on the O-lime and a couple more guys maybe Josh a Allen is more consistent. Running less. I just don’t see it as the sky is falling. I kind of felt like WR was a maybe if the right guy fell to us. Not a we absolutely must draft a WR. 

 

Now as as far as day 3 prospects I still feel like there’s talent there that I would argue will stick around the NFL as long or longer than a few who went before. Still some fast dudes. Also shockingly Hakeem Butler is there who I feel like is and has been the best award on the board. I guess that’s why I’m not a talent evaluator. Or maybe he just bombed in interviews. 

 

Keep that hat in mind but a reason some of these people fall so far is teams completely remove them from their boards. So when they are falling and we on the board are screaming “how come we aren’t trading up into the 3rd round to take so and so” just remember. Usually at that point no one is. Metcalf must have been completely off people’s boards. Neck injuries are serious. Seattle is willing to gamble. We will see if it pays off. I’m 50/50 on him. I think I’m more obsessed about his numbers than anything. 

 

There is some WR’s still there with some impressive highlight film. Who knows if that matches up with their skill. I’m guessing if we grab one at this point he will be fast and a teams contributor. Not shocking at all. 

[Locomark]

A. Our WR group is much better than last year  at this time. B. Speed -No one had to respect the deep field at the start of last season. Now we have it. C. Foster and our QB have a year of playing time under their belts and D.There is still a whole offseason for trades. Many teams are in cap hell so we may still make another deal.    This isn’t a great group but it isn’t poor either, especially with a real line giving us time to throw for once. 

 

[cage]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I hope you’re right.  But he was a huge recruit for Bama and couldn’t see the field.  Don’t forget we cut him.  Seems super risky to be so dependent on him. 

 

My fear is that we going to be here next yearcwoth questions about Allen because his weapons weren’t good enough.  We are building a Brady type receiving core and Allen isn’t that type of qb.

 

I recognize there's risk there... no doubt

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

 There is always uncertainty in the draft. This is not a newsflash. And, no, I do have “an idea“. It’s a rational one. The general manager seems to share that idea and I tend to trust him more than the posters on the board. And I say that with all respect. So your statement is really a non-specific generalization that doesn’t really add to the discussion.  Would you have taken one of the wide receivers available over Cody Ford?

Review our receiving acquisitions the last 2 years.  It sucks.  Like I said, they have been great on defense which given McDermott’s background makes sense.  But even Belichick struggles finding receivers.  But he has Brady.  On the other hand, the Steelers always find top talent.

 

and with how many bad GMs there are, it’s ok to question certain things.  Beane was a marketing intern, he’s not Bill Gates.  I predict a receiver drafted in the 3rd or later will have a really good year. It happens almost every year.

[Troll Toll]

25 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:

 All that matters is this year! It was in a single wide receiver of that quality that you mentioned in this post available. Again, a very weak year for wide receivers. Honestly, you don’t seem to be getting this. Look, remember all the hype about DK ? But, why do you think he wasn’t taken until the 64th pick? Because all of the teams knew he’s way too much of a risk. Just a down year. I can see them making a value pack on day three. Maybe someone like Jamal Custis of Syracuse.

That is what makes this so excruciating, all of this year’s top receivers were there for the taking AFTER we took Cody Ford. This was the perfect opportunity to trade up from Round 3 and likely get the best receiver in the class. I bet 4-5 receivers from Round 2 this year pan out in the way the Bills needed. Then they all got drafted before our 3rd round pick. It was obvious they weren’t going to make it to the 3rd round.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

No way.

Foster is emerging as our #1.

Zay improved steadily.

Beasley plays the slot, Brown takes the top off.

Duke Williams is essentially a wild card but hes that big body guy everyone wants.

And I love McKenzie. 

[chris heff]

Andre Reed was a fourth round pick out of a small school who became a number one receiver when a 33 year old James Lofton showed up. The season doesn’t start tomorrow. Everyone needs to relax.

[C.Biscuit97]

17 minutes ago, cage said:

 

I think Daboll showed he's a bit more creative than that

Daboll has been a bottom 5 OC basically every year he’s been in the NFL. 

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Troll Toll said:

That is what makes this so excruciating, all of this year’s top receivers were there for the taking AFTER we took Cody Ford. This was the perfect opportunity to trade up from Round 3 and likely get the best receiver in the class. I bet 4-5 receivers from Round 2 this year pan out in the way the Bills needed. Then they all got drafted before our 3rd round pick. It was obvious they weren’t going to make it to the 3rd round.

 

You can bet all you want, but there's a reason only 1 WR was taken in the 1st this year.  Again the Bills invested a lot in Brown and Beasley, found a gem in Foster and maybe McK, Zay had a decent season despite a terrible off-season, and they signed the best WR from the CFL.  I just don't see any room for a WR (then again I thought the same thing about OL, but this was a far better OL than WR draft).

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, BobChalmers said:

Would it be reasonable to have the Mod's just ban anyone with "Troll" in his name?

<scrolling feverishly through Moderator handbook>

AHA! Here it is. Section 137, subsection 16b, paragraph 42: 

 “For Posters with chronic negative input, who advertise such behavior in their chosen screen name, the 3 Strike rule may be waived.   Accumulative accountably should be taken into consideration to defend disciplinary actions. However, if it looks like a turd, smells like a turd, acts like a turd, Double Flushing is encouraged.”

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Locomark said:

A. Our WR group is much better than last year  at this time. B. Speed -No one had to respect the deep field at the start of last season. Now we have it. C. Foster and our QB have a year of playing time under their belts and D.There is still a whole offseason for trades. Many teams are in cap hell so we may still make another deal.    This isn’t a great group but it isn’t poor either, especially with a real line giving us time to throw for once.

 

Great post.  The impact of a quality OL on the passing game can not be over-stated and the roster we see after the draft, will not necessarily be the roster we see in TC much less opening day.

 

That said, the lack of intermediate roster cut-downs now does hurt the ability of teams to acquire veteran talent.

 

9 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

That is what makes this so excruciating, all of this year’s top receivers were there for the taking AFTER we took Cody Ford. This was the perfect opportunity to trade up from Round 3 and likely get the best receiver in the class. I bet 4-5 receivers from Round 2 this year pan out in the way the Bills needed. Then they all got drafted before our 3rd round pick. It was obvious they weren’t going to make it to the 3rd round.

 

Then the logical conclusion would be that they didn't see any of this year's top receivers as worth what they would give to trade up from Round 3.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Absolutely not the same as the Peterman situation. We have guys in the wide receiver group who have shown they can produce well beyond the AJ level. 

Please tell me who the Bills needed to grab? 

This years wide receiver class in the draft is weak. There is zero can’t miss guys. Zero well rounded can do it all wide receivers in this class. 

Allen has better weapons and more time to develop with them in camps. 

Thank you for starting a good conversation. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

No way.

Foster is emerging as our #1.

Zay improved steadily.

Beasley plays the slot, Brown takes the top off.

Duke Williams is essentially a wild card but hes that big body guy everyone wants.

And I love McKenzie. 

 

My summation of the above would be that we don't have a proven, top WR core, but we are going into training camp with a lot more promise than we had last year.

Given that the WR won't be dividing their reps 3 ways, their chances to get in sync with Allen will improve.