John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

This post is just silly. It's a perfect example of a Bills fan pretending that all is rainbows and unicorns in the Bills universe.

 

The reality in the NFL is that ...

• Round 1.   White is the only 2017 draftee who has developed into a truly good NFL player.  However, to get him, the Bills passed on two QB prospects who seem very likely to become great QBs.  Passing on a top QB prospect to take a DB prospect to replace the top DB that they didn't re-sign is easily the most "Billsy" thing about the 2017 draft.
• Round 2.  Zay Jones remains a borderline bust.  He was the fourth WR taken in 2017, and hasn't shown very much.  He was only a starter last season because the Bills had nobody better in a WR corps that wasn't NFL caliber by any standard.  The addition of modest FA veteran WRs may push him out of the starting lineup.
• Round 3.  Being the best starter on one of the worst OLs -- if not the worst -- in the NFL doesn't say much about Dion Dawkins, particularly since his play regressed from "adequate" as a rookie to "poor" as a sophomore.  Dawkins will have to improve significantly to remain a starter in 2019.
• Round 4.  Matt Milano has been a decent starter on a modest defense.  He's undersized, so he might or might not be a starter on most other NFL defenses.  It would depend largely upon defensive scheme and talent level.  He's the second best pick for the Bills in 2017.
• Round 5.  Nathan Peterman was not merely a wasted draft pick; he was one of the few draftees taken on Day Three who could be described as a bust.   Nobody really expects QBs taken in Round 5 to ever be more than an adequate backup so being bust is a special distinction, but Peterman was far worse. He was easily the most incompetent backup QB in 2017 and 2018, if not in the  last decade or more. 

Both Dawkins and Jones are probably saved from being cut because of their lack of top competition and their low rookie contract salaries.  If the Bills had better players in their units or if they were more expensive, they might both be out the door.  Neither would be good enough to make numerous other NFL rosters or to be starters on most other NFL teams.

 

 

 

 

I disagree Dawkins would be "out of the door". I can't see any circumstances in which a 2nd round left tackle has had one above average season and one slightly below average season as a starter in his first two years would be cut by any team. In fact I can't think of a roster in the NFL Dawkins wouldn't be on (thought clearly there are some where he wouldn't be pencilled in as the starting left tackle at this point). Worth saying the Bills have brought in competition as well in Ty Nsekhe so they see the need to push him which is the right approach. 

 

I also disagree a little on Milano. I think you undersell him. I agree that so far he is the 2nd most successful pick of that draft and I think he would start, today, on 25 NFL defenses minimum. He is a proven good NFL starter who is a perfect fit in modern NFL defenses. 

 

Zay Jones and Nathan Peterman I do totally agree with. 

 

For me the 2017 Draft is one borderline elite player (Tre) one good long term starter (Milano), another starter who still has something to prove (Dawkins), a guy who has an awful lot to prove (Zay) a 6th round guy who wasn't good enough (not unusual - Vallejo) and a disaster (Peterman). 

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Wait until people find out that Tyrell Williams--a player with fewer catches, identical yards, and fewer TDs than Zay Jones in 2018--got $11M/year in free agency.

 

 

He sucks too. I said it before free agency opened I wanted nothing to do with him he was going to be the biggest overpaid mistake in this FA group. 

[K-9]

Used to be that a draft couldn’t be properly judged until three years after those players were in the league. That was a universally adopted paradigm league wide. What’s changed? The players aren’t radically different. Nor are the personnel professionals in charge of evaluating them. So what’s the difference? I submit it’s the (still) mostly uninformed consumer of the 24/7, 365 news cycle in the age of mass social media and the unreasonable (again, mostly uninformed) expectations that occur as a result.

 

Anyway, the 2017 Bills draft is considered above average by most pundits. But this year will tell us the most about it.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Used to be that a draft couldn’t be properly judged until three years after those players were in the league. That was a universally adopted paradigm league wide. What’s changed? The players aren’t radically different. Nor are the personnel professionals in charge of evaluating them. So what’s the difference? I submit it’s the (still) mostly uninformed consumer of the 24/7, 365 news cycle in the age of mass social media and the unreasonable (again, mostly uninformed) expectations that occur as a result.

 

Anyway, the 2017 Bills draft is considered above average by most pundits. But this year will tell us the most about it.

 

 

 

A lot has changed.  

 

That 3 year rule pre-dates even free agency and goes back to a time when 1st rounders signed 6-7 year deals.

 

Nowadays teams want to start young players asap and are less disadvantaged than ever by doing so.

 

With less roster continuity and with less practicing and more teams than ever trying to spend to cap minimums it's a lot harder for vets to keep rookies on the bench............and when those draft picks play more and earlier...........more is expected earlier.     And the fact that half of 1st rounders are being allowed to hit free agency after just 4 seasons means that decisions gotta' be made quickly.

[BADOLBILZ]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

He sucks too. I said it before free agency opened I wanted nothing to do with him he was going to be the biggest overpaid mistake in this FA group. 

 

 

Yeah I was anti-Tyrell Williams as well but Zay Jones isn't a comp..............Williams averaged 4.3 yards more per catch...........that's why he has so much more value than Zay Jones.

 

At the same stage in their careers Zay is more like a poor man's version of Jordan Matthews.............who the Eagles couldn't give away for a 6th rounder before Beane took him off their hands.

 

That extra production per catch ability is the difference between $10M per plus FA deal and being a journeyman.

 

 

[WideNine]

I would agree that Milano is a bit undersized for run support (as his injury getting caught up in a wash of bodies trying to stop a red-zone run would indicate), but he excels at covering the shallow zones and picking up guys that release underneath and has a good nose for the ball.

 

When he does sniff out a run and is not caught on his heels he is pretty good at getting into the backfield to trip up, tackle, or redirect a runner.

 

He is a good value player.

[Coach Tuesday]

19 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I was anti-Tyrell Williams as well but Zay Jones isn't a comp..............Williams averaged 4.3 yards more per catch...........that's why he has so much more value than Zay Jones.

 

At the same stage in their careers Zay is more like a poor man's version of Jordan Matthews.............who the Eagles couldn't give away for a 6th rounder before Beane took him off their hands.

 

That extra production per catch ability is the difference between $10M per plus FA deal and being a journeyman.

 

 

 

Williams was also what, a #4 receiver in that offense, while Zay was effectively a #1 or 2?

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, WideNine said:

I would agree that Milano is a bit undersized for run support (as his injury getting caught up in a wash of bodies trying to stop a red-zone run would indicate), but he excels at covering the shallow zones and picking up guys that release underneath and has a good nose for the ball.

 

When he does sniff out a run and is not caught on his heels he is pretty good at getting into the backfield to trip up, tackle, or redirect a runner.

 

He is a good value player.

 

To be fair,that could happen to any player despite their size. All it takes is one big guy to fall on a leg or ankle the wrong way. So size IMO has nothing to do with someone getting hurt in a bundle of NFL player bodies.

[Bill from NYC]

20 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

A lot has changed.  

 

That 3 year rule pre-dates even free agency and goes back to a time when 1st rounders signed 6-7 year deals.

 

Nowadays teams want to start young players asap and are less disadvantaged than ever by doing so.

 

With less roster continuity and with less practicing and more teams than ever trying to spend to cap minimums it's a lot harder for vets to keep rookies on the bench............and when those draft picks play more and earlier...........more is expected earlier.     And the fact that half of 1st rounders are being allowed to hit free agency after just 4 seasons means that decisions gotta' be made quickly.

I think that quarterback salaries mandate the use of rookies.

 

Imo when the NFLPA agreed to a rookie cap they thought that veteran players would get the money. Instead, most of it seemed to have gone to the QBs. For example, paying Cousins over 30 mil. guaranteed leaves a team less room for high priced vets. That particular contract set a scary precedent imo. Soon his contract will be dwarfed by much better QBs, in fact it is already happening.

 

This makes early player development that much more important and is something that I hope our leadership focuses on in the coming drafts.

Edited June 14, 2019 by Bill from NYC

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

Used to be that a draft couldn’t be properly judged until three years after those players were in the league. That was a universally adopted paradigm league wide. What’s changed? The players aren’t radically different. Nor are the personnel professionals in charge of evaluating them. So what’s the difference? I submit it’s the (still) mostly uninformed consumer of the 24/7, 365 news cycle in the age of mass social media and the unreasonable (again, mostly uninformed) expectations that occur as a result.

 

Anyway, the 2017 Bills draft is considered above average by most pundits. But this year will tell us the most about it.

 

 

I'd say that that everyone picked after the first round can be gone after four years, and most players WILL test the market if allowed (they'd be foolish not to do so), so you better get some production out of them in those four years. Just as importantly, for first rounders, by the end of year three, a team HAS to know if the fifth year option is worth the gamble, and they can only know that judging from the production of the first three years. The Bills made huge financial decisions about Lawson and Watkins based on their production in years 1-3, and not just year 3. That's not how it was in the days of yore by a long stretch.

In short, everything has changed, and it has little to to do with a news cycle. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by dave mcbride

[dave mcbride]

5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

You need to be a bit more honest in your evaluations if you want your point to be received.

 

- Zay Jones is not a borderline bust in any way, shape, or form.  He hasn't been a WR1 or WR2, but you should probably acknowledge that he had 7 TDs last season--a number that tied him with JuJu Smith-Schuster (in the same number of games) and was one behind Julio Jones for the season.

- Dawkins wasn't poor last year.  Yes, he regressed from 2017 form, but he was hardly the guy that was getting his QB killed out there. Also, he wasn't drafted in round 3, he was drafted in round 2 after Buffalo traded up.

- Matt Milano has been far, far better than "decent". In 5 starts as a rookie, he had 29 solo tackles, 7 TFLs, 6 QB hits, 2 PDs, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, and 1 TD.  In his 2nd year, he raised his game and put up better numbers in 13 starts.  I'm also not sure how you define him as "undersized".  He played at 223 lbs...very similar to guys like Deion Jones, Jaylon Smith, Telvin Smith, and Cory Littleton--all of whom play in different schemes.  Also, he wasn't drafted in round 4, he was drafted in round 5.

 

That last paragraph is just silliness.  It's a massive overstatement of an opinion that can't be backed up by any fact.

 

Again, on its face, your position would be reasonable if you didn't go bananas with hyperbole.

I usually agree with you Bandit, but Zay Jones was not good last year. In fact, I thought he mostly stunk. Sure, he got some vulture TDs in garbage time and the occasional blown coverage TD, but he's too slow, struggled to catch the ball, and wracked up his numbers because in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. In other words, he was a better option than Kelvin Benjamin, but that doesn't mean he was good. 

 

EDIT: I'm not saying he can't improve, and he did make a nice TD catch against Houston (on a perfect throw by none other than Peterman). But one standout play isn't enough. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by dave mcbride

[K-9]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

A lot has changed.  

 

That 3 year rule pre-dates even free agency and goes back to a time when 1st rounders signed 6-7 year deals.

 

Nowadays teams want to start young players asap and are less disadvantaged than ever by doing so.

 

With less roster continuity and with less practicing and more teams than ever trying to spend to cap minimums it's a lot harder for vets to keep rookies on the bench............and when those draft picks play more and earlier...........more is expected earlier.     And the fact that half of 1st rounders are being allowed to hit free agency after just 4 seasons means that decisions gotta' be made quickly.

I agree entirely with your premise that front offices have to play rookies faster and that vets are finding it more difficult to keep them on the bench. In that regard, many things have changed as you said. The economic realities are what they are. But that all speaks to the “expectation” management has for their draft picks.

 

While the timeline for rookie development has dramatically shortened and teams feel a sense of urgency to get them into lineups sooner than later, the players themselves, the scouts and other talent evaluators assigned to scout them, and the tools at their disposal to do so, haven’t changed that dramatically. So while teams don’t have the luxury of those three years to evaluate, a player still may need that time to fully develop. Or not. 

 

Anyway, it’s an interesting question to me. I’m gonna get in touch with a few people and get their opinion on it as well. 

 

Regardless, this year will tell us a lot more about the 2017 draft. 

14 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'd say that that everyone picked after the first round can be gone after four years, and most players WILL test the market if allowed (they'd be foolish not to do so), so you better get some production out of them in those four years. Just as importantly, for first rounders, by the end of year three, a team HAS to know if the fifth year option is worth the gamble, and they can only know that judging from the production of the first three years. The Bills made huge financial decisions about Lawson and Watkins based on their production in years 1-3, and not just year 3. That's not how it was in the days of yore by a long stretch.

In short, everything has changed, and it has little to to do with a news cycle. 

In terms of the economic realities of the game and the pressure that puts on front offices to get younger players in the lineup sooner, I agree.

 

In terms of the players, scouts, other talent evaluators, and their tools to assess talent?  Not much has changed at all. 

 

My comment about the news cycle and social media speaks more to expectations fans have for draft picks. IMO, that has definitely changed our expectations for draft picks and our level of patience with their development.

[thebandit27]

18 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I usually agree with you Bandit, but Zay Jones was not good last year. In fact, I thought he mostly stunk. Sure, he got some vulture TDs in garbage time and the occasional blown coverage TD, but he's too slow, struggled to catch the ball, and wracked up his numbers because in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. In other words, he was a better option than Kelvin Benjamin, but that doesn't mean he was good. 

 

EDIT: I'm not saying he can't improve, and he did make a nice TD catch against Houston (on a perfect throw by none other than Peterman). But one standout play isn't enough. 

 

I wouldn't say that Zay has lived up to his draft status; my point is more that there's plenty of space between "bust" and "star", and Zay lies right within it.

 

Right now, he's a WR3 type.

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, K-9 said:

I agree entirely with your premise that front offices have to play rookies faster and that vets are finding it more difficult to keep them on the bench. In that regard, many things have changed as you said. The economic realities are what they are. But that all speaks to the “expectation” management has for their draft picks.

 

While the timeline for rookie development has dramatically shortened and teams feel a sense of urgency to get them into lineups sooner than later, the players themselves, the scouts and other talent evaluators assigned to scout them, and the tools at their disposal to do so, haven’t changed that dramatically. So while teams don’t have the luxury of those three years to evaluate, a player still may need that time to fully develop. Or not. 

 

Anyway, it’s an interesting question to me. I’m gonna get in touch with a few people and get their opinion on it as well. 

 

Regardless, this year will tell us a lot more about the 2017 draft. 

In terms of the economic realities of the game and the pressure that puts on front offices to get younger players in the lineup sooner, I agree.

 

In terms of the players, scouts, other talent evaluators, and their tools to assess talent?  Not much has changed at all. 

 

My comment about the news cycle and social media speaks more to expectations fans have for draft picks. IMO, that has definitely changed our expectations for draft picks and our level of patience with their development.

I see your point. As a fan, though, I do think about the necessity of getting production in the early years given the current system, not because I feel a need to assign draft grades two years out. More knowledgeable fans get it, and you're of course one of them.  

[LSHMEAB]

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I was anti-Tyrell Williams as well but Zay Jones isn't a comp..............Williams averaged 4.3 yards more per catch...........that's why he has so much more value than Zay Jones.

 

At the same stage in their careers Zay is more like a poor man's version of Jordan Matthews.............who the Eagles couldn't give away for a 6th rounder before Beane took him off their hands.

 

That extra production per catch ability is the difference between $10M per plus FA deal and being a journeyman.

 

 

How many targets did Zay get compared to T. Williams? Zay's numbers really have to be taken in context; he was the primary weapon by default as a member of the worst receiver unit in the league. If he can't beat out Foster or Brown, then what? At this point, he looks like a #4. We'll see if that physique improves his confidence.

Edited June 13, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Cripple Creek]

On 6/12/2019 at 9:48 AM, Bill from NYC said:

But you see e-man, it is possible to view this differently.

 

Mahomes and Watson were also pretty good, no? And we had QB problems at the time. Big problems that Peterman didn't solve.

 

I think it is OK to be suspicious of moves like this without being "agenda driven."

I also think that it is ok to still be suspicious of Watson and Mahomes.  Let's see this season play out.  If Allen develops as we all hope then, as you say, all is forgiven. Still, let's not anoint Watson and Mahomes just yet.  I certainly feel more confident in Mahomes' future, but, stranger things...

[LSHMEAB]

11 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

I also think that it is ok to still be suspicious of Watson and Mahomes.  Let's see this season play out.  If Allen develops as we all hope then, as you say, all is forgiven. Still, let's not anoint Watson and Mahomes just yet.  I certainly feel more confident in Mahomes' future, but, stranger things...

I think it's OK to be suspicious of Watson. I think it's pretty out there to be suspicious of Mahomes. VERY few things would be stranger than a guy throwing 50 TD's in his first season as a starter going on to fail. VERY few things. 

 

It's OK to admit Mahomes is awesome. If Allen is the real deal, who cares?

[Cripple Creek]

22 hours ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Where? I haven't seen that. I have seen 5 years with "some amount" of progress. But I haven't seen 5 years "no matter what". Unless I missed it somehow, but I doubt anyone would say they get 5 years no matter the outcome, but then again some will say some silly stuff at times.

 

Anyways just asking where you saw 5 years no matter what.

I think that you could search all day and not come up with more than one crackpot (if that) who would say such a thing.  Some are classic deflectors. Others are championship caliber goalpost movers.  It is rare indeed to find someone who excels at both. You have found such a person.

[Cripple Creek]

9 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I think it's OK to be suspicious of Watson. I think it's pretty out there to be suspicious of Mahomes. VERY few things would be stranger than a guy throwing 50 TD's in his first season as a starter going on to fail. VERY few things. 

 

It's OK to admit Mahomes is awesome. If Allen is the real deal, who cares?

Mahomes had an awesome season and I said the exact same thing about Allen.  Last time I checked though one season does not a career make (and not wishing bad on anyone, but on any given play...).

 

[Augie]

51 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I think it's OK to be suspicious of Watson. I think it's pretty out there to be suspicious of Mahomes. VERY few things would be stranger than a guy throwing 50 TD's in his first season as a starter going on to fail. VERY few things. 

 

It's OK to admit Mahomes is awesome. If Allen is the real deal, who cares?

 

I wouldn’t say it’s being “suspicious” of Mahomes, but you have to wonder how much how much less production he would have had last year without some top producers he will no longer have.  Josh didn’t get to work with anything like that last year. Could he have gotten the same results? Doubtful, but then he didn’t get the sit and learn year the way Mahomes did. I’ll just remain hopeful. 

[LSHMEAB]

11 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I wouldn’t say it’s being “suspicious” of Mahomes, but you have to wonder how much how much less production he would have had last year without some top producers he will no longer have.  Josh didn’t get to work with anything like that last year. Could he have gotten the same results? Doubtful, but then he didn’t get the sit and learn year the way Mahomes did. I’ll just remain hopeful. 

I think the supporting cast thing is SLIGHTLY overblown. Yes, Kelce and Hill are(were) outstanding players and Hunt was a nice RB. Andy Reid is also a very good offensive coach. That doesn't explain 50 plus TD's considering Alex Smith put up 25 with those same players. I'm not just talking numbers. It's hard to imagine watching Mahomes play and not being blown away by his ability to improvise and make things happen. 

 

Like I ALWAYS say, the Mahomes pick won't matter if Allen pans out. The obstacle for Allen is going to be more quickly identifying his short/intermediate targets when that's the soft spot and delivering with a little more touch. That's an objective independent of the trash we trotted out at WR and TE last season. They've added "enough" talent to make it work if he can improve in this area. Physical talent will certainly never be an issue for JA.