John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

[K-9]

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

As I posted elsewhere.......

I don’t mean to take this out of context, but the Bills have been in the unfortunate position of being in something like a 4 team division of basketball back in the UCLA Bruins/John Wooden days. Yeah, we can complain that they keep beating us, but let’s remember they beat EVERYONE more often than not. All too frequently in the Super Bowl. It’s been a horrible stretch. 

 

Time for a new era. I like where we stand at this point. Time will tell. 

Good point and even better comparison with Wooden and those great UCLA teams. 

 

The Pats*** beat everybody, like you said. I think Brady/Bellyache have a losing record vs. one team in the league and that’s because they don’t play Carolina often enough. I simply have to tip my hat at that kind of sustained excellence. 

 

Time for a new era indeed. 

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yep, but they absolutely ***** on us.

 

Bradys record against the Bills is ridiculous.

 

Just like the record against rookie QB’s. We are not unique, but some people act like we are. I’m looking forward to the new era! 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

But I’m utterly shocked, SHOCKED I tell you, to learn that if they aren’t a Super Bowl contender in 2020 that you’d be disappointed. Seems so out of character for you. 

 

Well I don't think it's unreasonable. 2020 is year 4 of the new regime and year 3 of their hand picked franchise QB. If they aren't contending for a Super Bowl by that point what are we waiting for?

Edited June 13, 2019 by HappyDays

[LSHMEAB]

1 hour ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Where? I haven't seen that. I have seen 5 years with "some amount" of progress. But I haven't seen 5 years "no matter what". Unless I missed it somehow, but I doubt anyone would say they get 5 years no matter the outcome, but then again some will say some silly stuff at times.

 

Anyways just asking where you saw 5 years no matter what.

I've definitely seen "they'll get 5 years no matter what PD." I would assume that infers that they're not gonna go 0-16, but I've heard it.

 

I think fans in general have a strong affinity for Beane and McDermott. Probably Beane to a greater extent. They SEEM to be running the organization "professionally" compared to year's past. That emotional investment SEEMS to be so strong that they're willing to give them a long leash "no matter what." 

 

I believe they would have a change of heart if the product is a disaster, but that's my perception of the whole "5 years no matter what thing."

 

I think they've done some good things and some bad things. I think McDermott has done an outstanding job with the talent at hand. What's different about this season is that the cap hell thing is over. Beane has had the ability to bring in his guys. So while it's not playoffs or bust, progress is a must.

 

For me, it's all good and well that there seems to be a solid structure in place, but W's and L's is all that really matters.

 

Tom Donahoe appeared to be laying a solid foundation until he wasn't. That in no way means that Beane and McDermott will fail. We all (presumably) want to see the Bills win ASAP. It just means that the culture and all that jazz has to translate to the field sooner rather than later. We've really only seen chapter one and it's a mixed bag. I'm anxious to see what they produce in 19.

Edited June 13, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I've definitely seen "they'll get 5 years no matter what PD." I would assume that infers that they're not gonna go 0-16, but I've heard it.

 

I think fans in general have a strong affinity for Beane and McDermott. Probably Beane to a greater extent. They SEEM to be running the organization "professionally" compared to year's past. That emotional investment SEEMS to be so strong that they're willing to give them a long leash "no matter what." 

 

I believe they would have a change of heart if the product is a disaster, but that's my perception of the whole "5 years no matter what thing."

 

I think they've done some good things and some bad things. I think McDermott has done an outstanding job with the talent at hand. What's different about this season is that the cap hell thing is over. Beane has had the ability to bring in his guys. So while it's not playoffs or bust, progress is a must.

 

Well if certain people have said that then that's silly. No matter what means tome that any circumstances can happen whether it be 0-16 or 3-13 and still stay for5 years. All the ones that I saw were inferring that they could stay for 5 years with some sort of success. For example 10-6 the next 2 seasons and barely missing the playoffs, in which case I can absolutely see them staying for 5 years.

 

A bad record for the next 2 season(in which no matter what means), then most likely not.

[LSHMEAB]

16 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Truth is he had the ability last year.... and basically every offensive FA he brought in was a flop.

 

 

Needs to hit on them this year..... The offense can not suck for the third year in a row. 

 

 

They have a terrible track record in terms of offensive acquisitions. They've also produced very solid drafts, almost exclusively with defensive players. That's the problem. Agree 100% that they need to have dramatically improved their batting average WRT this offseason's offensive signings. At the end of the day, so much will depend on the first round of the 2018 draft. If Allen and to a lesser extent Edmunds pan out, the Bills will be in good shape. If not, it's gonna be a long couple of years.

[K-9]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Well I don't think it's unreasonable. 2020 is year 4 of the new regime and year 3 of their hand picked franchise QB. If they aren't contending for a Super Bowl by that point what are we waiting for?

You missed my sarcasm. 

 

Everyone will be disappointed if they aren’t contending. Just as we are every year they aren’t contending. 

 

As to what we are waiting for, that’s a personal choice. I’ll be waiting for the next opportunity to contend, just as I do every year. Can’t speak for anyone else.

[SoTier]

22 hours ago, eball said:

 

If "Billsy" means a top 5 CB, starting WR, starting LB, and starting LT -- hitting on 4 of 6 picks -- I hope their drafts continue to be "Billsy" for years to come!

 

This post is just silly. It's a perfect example of a Bills fan pretending that all is rainbows and unicorns in the Bills universe.

 

The reality in the NFL is that ...

• Round 1.   White is the only 2017 draftee who has developed into a truly good NFL player.  However, to get him, the Bills passed on two QB prospects who seem very likely to become great QBs.  Passing on a top QB prospect to take a DB prospect to replace the top DB that they didn't re-sign is easily the most "Billsy" thing about the 2017 draft.
• Round 2.  Zay Jones remains a borderline bust.  He was the fourth WR taken in 2017, and hasn't shown very much.  He was only a starter last season because the Bills had nobody better in a WR corps that wasn't NFL caliber by any standard.  The addition of modest FA veteran WRs may push him out of the starting lineup.
• Round 3.  Being the best starter on one of the worst OLs -- if not the worst -- in the NFL doesn't say much about Dion Dawkins, particularly since his play regressed from "adequate" as a rookie to "poor" as a sophomore.  Dawkins will have to improve significantly to remain a starter in 2019.
• Round 4.  Matt Milano has been a decent starter on a modest defense.  He's undersized, so he might or might not be a starter on most other NFL defenses.  It would depend largely upon defensive scheme and talent level.  He's the second best pick for the Bills in 2017.
• Round 5.  Nathan Peterman was not merely a wasted draft pick; he was one of the few draftees taken on Day Three who could be described as a bust.   Nobody really expects QBs taken in Round 5 to ever be more than an adequate backup so being bust is a special distinction, but Peterman was far worse. He was easily the most incompetent backup QB in 2017 and 2018, if not in the  last decade or more. 

Both Dawkins and Jones are probably saved from being cut because of their lack of top competition and their low rookie contract salaries.  If the Bills had better players in their units or if they were more expensive, they might both be out the door.  Neither would be good enough to make numerous other NFL rosters or to be starters on most other NFL teams.

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

Round 4.  Matt Milano has been a decent starter on a modest defense.  He's undersized, so he might or might not be a starter on most other NFL defenses.  It would depend largely upon defensive scheme and talent level

 

If you want to know why people have trouble taking you seriously, it's because you stretch to make negative points like this.

[Thurman#1]

21 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

But the owners don't always know. Some are clueless as to what a good head coach looks like.... can you give me an example of a GOOD HC coach who was mediocre for 4 straight years, was fired and succeeded else where in the modern day NFL? 

 

And no way they'll continue to be here if Allen fails. If Allen is sucking, the offense in all likelihood is struggling. 3-4 straight years of bad offensive numbers and more offensive coaches fired and they'll all surely be gone. 

 

 

Well, of course the owners don't always know. I didn't say that there's never been a failure with this model. But a smart owner should have a pretty good idea most of the time. The problem is that these days 

 

What does being fired have to do with anything? Has McDermott been fired as an HC I don't know about? You are just putting that in there for no reason whatsoever to make it harder to find guys who fit. 

 

In any case, Carroll and Belichick fit your qualifications. And since being fired has nothing to do with it ... yet again, look at Jason Garrett and Kubiak as well.

 

Now try and find guys who fit your own requirements ... "a GOOD HC coach who was mediocre for 4 straight years ... and succeeded ... in the modern day NFL" ... and was kept around longer and failed? There aren't many because of the quick trigger fingers that modern management has adopted. So we've got four examples of success and not all that many examples of failure. It's a strategy that has worked out a good percentage of the few times it's been tried, even in the modern NFL.

 

Typically, though, in a league where most teams aren't run all that well, this promising strategy which succeeded so often in the past hasn't been used that often despite a pretty decent success rate when tried in the old days and in modern days as well.

 

And your absolutism about what happens if Allen fails is just wrong. That's one possible outcome if Allen doesn't succeed. There are others.

Edited June 13, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

This post is just silly. It's a perfect example of a Bills fan pretending that all is rainbows and unicorns in the Bills universe.

 

The reality in the NFL is that ...

• Round 1.   White is the only 2017 draftee who has developed into a truly good NFL player.  However, to get him, the Bills passed on two QB prospects who seem very likely to become great QBs.  Passing on a top QB prospect to take a DB prospect to replace the top DB that they didn't re-sign is easily the most "Billsy" thing about the 2017 draft.
• Round 2.  Zay Jones remains a borderline bust.  He was the fourth WR taken in 2017, and hasn't shown very much.  He was only a starter last season because the Bills had nobody better in a WR corps that wasn't NFL caliber by any standard.  The addition of modest FA veteran WRs may push him out of the starting lineup.
• Round 3.  Being the best starter on one of the worst OLs -- if not the worst -- in the NFL doesn't say much about Dion Dawkins, particularly since his play regressed from "adequate" as a rookie to "poor" as a sophomore.  Dawkins will have to improve significantly to remain a starter in 2019.
• Round 4.  Matt Milano has been a decent starter on a modest defense.  He's undersized, so he might or might not be a starter on most other NFL defenses.  It would depend largely upon defensive scheme and talent level.  He's the second best pick for the Bills in 2017.
• Round 5.  Nathan Peterman was not merely a wasted draft pick; he was one of the few draftees taken on Day Three who could be described as a bust.   Nobody really expects QBs taken in Round 5 to ever be more than an adequate backup so being bust is a special distinction, but Peterman was far worse. He was easily the most incompetent backup QB in 2017 and 2018, if not in the  last decade or more. 

Both Dawkins and Jones are probably saved from being cut because of their lack of top competition and their low rookie contract salaries.  If the Bills had better players in their units or if they were more expensive, they might both be out the door.  Neither would be good enough to make numerous other NFL rosters or to be starters on most other NFL teams.

 

 

 

You make some good points but I do disagree wrt Dawkins. I am not saying that he had a great year but the NFL is a league that seems hard up for blockers, and I think Dawkins could land a spot on most teams. I also see him as likely to improve with better players next to him.

[Royale with Cheese]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

If you want to know why people have trouble taking you seriously, it's because you stretch to make negative points like this.

 

I just wonder if he's serious or not with that statement.

[Thurman#1]

 

 

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

Round 4.  Matt Milano has been a decent starter on a modest defense.  He's undersized, so he might or might not be a starter on most other NFL defenses.  It would depend largely upon defensive scheme and talent level.  He's the second best pick for the Bills in 2017.

 

 

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

If you want to know why people have trouble taking you seriously, it's because you stretch to make negative points like this.

 

Yup. None of the others stretch quite so very badly, but there isn't a really solid point in the bunch.

 

 

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

This post is just silly. It's a perfect example of a Bills fan pretending that all is rainbows and unicorns in the Bills universe.

 

• Round 2.  Zay Jones remains a borderline bust.  He was the fourth WR taken in 2017, and hasn't shown very much.  He was only a starter last season because the Bills had nobody better in a WR corps that wasn't NFL caliber by any standard.  The addition of modest FA veteran WRs may push him out of the starting lineup.
• Round 4.  Matt Milano has been a decent starter on a modest defense.  He's undersized, so he might or might not be a starter on most other NFL defenses.  It would depend largely upon defensive scheme and talent level.  He's the second best pick for the Bills in 2017.

 

 

 

Zay is not a borderline bust.  7 TD's last season doesn't mean he's a borderline bust.  You have ripped our offensive line and QB talent....has it occurred to you that is probably a reason why he's production isn't as high as you want it?

 

"It would largely depend on the defensive scheme...."  well duh.  Why would a team with defensive scheme that needs bigger linebackers draft someone like Milano?  

See he fits McDermott's scheme, so we draft him.  I thought this was common sense?

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Zay is not a borderline bust.  7 TD's last season doesn't mean he's a borderline bust.  You have ripped our offensive line and QB talent....has it occurred to you that is probably a reason why he's production isn't as high as you want it?

 

"It would largely depend on the defensive scheme...."  well duh.  Why would a team with defensive scheme that needs bigger linebackers draft someone like Milano?  

See he fits McDermott's scheme, so we draft him.  I thought this was common sense?

Common among the rainbows and unicorns crowd. If you want superior insight, you have to go ask the floods and toads folks.

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

This post is just silly. It's a perfect example of a Bills fan pretending that all is rainbows and unicorns in the Bills universe.

 

The reality in the NFL is that ...

• Round 1.   White is the only 2017 draftee who has developed into a truly good NFL player.  However, to get him, the Bills passed on two QB prospects who seem very likely to become great QBs.  Passing on a top QB prospect to take a DB prospect to replace the top DB that they didn't re-sign is easily the most "Billsy" thing about the 2017 draft.
• Round 2.  Zay Jones remains a borderline bust.  He was the fourth WR taken in 2017, and hasn't shown very much.  He was only a starter last season because the Bills had nobody better in a WR corps that wasn't NFL caliber by any standard.  The addition of modest FA veteran WRs may push him out of the starting lineup.
• Round 3.  Being the best starter on one of the worst OLs -- if not the worst -- in the NFL doesn't say much about Dion Dawkins, particularly since his play regressed from "adequate" as a rookie to "poor" as a sophomore.  Dawkins will have to improve significantly to remain a starter in 2019.
• Round 4.  Matt Milano has been a decent starter on a modest defense.  He's undersized, so he might or might not be a starter on most other NFL defenses.  It would depend largely upon defensive scheme and talent level.  He's the second best pick for the Bills in 2017.
• Round 5.  Nathan Peterman was not merely a wasted draft pick; he was one of the few draftees taken on Day Three who could be described as a bust.   Nobody really expects QBs taken in Round 5 to ever be more than an adequate backup so being bust is a special distinction, but Peterman was far worse. He was easily the most incompetent backup QB in 2017 and 2018, if not in the  last decade or more. 

Both Dawkins and Jones are probably saved from being cut because of their lack of top competition and their low rookie contract salaries.  If the Bills had better players in their units or if they were more expensive, they might both be out the door.  Neither would be good enough to make numerous other NFL rosters or to be starters on most other NFL teams.

 

 

 

 

You need to be a bit more honest in your evaluations if you want your point to be received.

 

- Zay Jones is not a borderline bust in any way, shape, or form.  He hasn't been a WR1 or WR2, but you should probably acknowledge that he had 7 TDs last season--a number that tied him with JuJu Smith-Schuster (in the same number of games) and was one behind Julio Jones for the season.

- Dawkins wasn't poor last year.  Yes, he regressed from 2017 form, but he was hardly the guy that was getting his QB killed out there. Also, he wasn't drafted in round 3, he was drafted in round 2 after Buffalo traded up.

- Matt Milano has been far, far better than "decent". In 5 starts as a rookie, he had 29 solo tackles, 7 TFLs, 6 QB hits, 2 PDs, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, and 1 TD.  In his 2nd year, he raised his game and put up better numbers in 13 starts.  I'm also not sure how you define him as "undersized".  He played at 223 lbs...very similar to guys like Deion Jones, Jaylon Smith, Telvin Smith, and Cory Littleton--all of whom play in different schemes.  Also, he wasn't drafted in round 4, he was drafted in round 5.

 

That last paragraph is just silliness.  It's a massive overstatement of an opinion that can't be backed up by any fact.

 

Again, on its face, your position would be reasonable if you didn't go bananas with hyperbole.

[thenorthremembers]

I get really sick of people thinking every draft pick needs to become a perennial All Pro or Hall of Famer to not be considered a bust.  Sammy Watkins hasn't had the season Zay had last year since 2015, yet the same people who think Zay is a bust still whine about Sammy being traded.    Terrance Williams hasnt caught a touchdown pass since 2016 and some of these same people were clamoring to bring him in as a free agent to boost our wideout corps.

 

Bottom line is you need role players on your team as well.   If someone asked me if I'd take 58 receptions, near 600 yards and 7 touchdowns from a 2nd year, 2nd round draft pick, while playing with Nathan Peterman, Matt Barkley, Derek Anderson, and a rookie at QB, I'd sign up for it every time.  

[K-9]

So, as I understand it, the Bills have personnel that sucks but we will be mad if they suck. Got it. 

[thebandit27]

40 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

I get really sick of people thinking every draft pick needs to become a perennial All Pro or Hall of Famer to not be considered a bust.  Sammy Watkins hasn't had the season Zay had last year since 2015, yet the same people who think Zay is a bust still whine about Sammy being traded.    Terrance Williams hasnt caught a touchdown pass since 2016 and some of these same people were clamoring to bring him in as a free agent to boost our wideout corps.

 

Bottom line is you need role players on your team as well.   If someone asked me if I'd take 58 receptions, near 600 yards and 7 touchdowns from a 2nd year, 2nd round draft pick, while playing with Nathan Peterman, Matt Barkley, Derek Anderson, and a rookie at QB, I'd sign up for it every time.  

 

Wait until people find out that Tyrell Williams--a player with fewer catches, identical yards, and fewer TDs than Zay Jones in 2018--got $11M/year in free agency.

 

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

I get really sick of people thinking every draft pick needs to become a perennial All Pro or Hall of Famer to not be considered a bust.  Sammy Watkins hasn't had the season Zay had last year since 2015, yet the same people who think Zay is a bust still whine about Sammy being traded.    Terrance Williams hasnt caught a touchdown pass since 2016 and some of these same people were clamoring to bring him in as a free agent to boost our wideout corps.

 

Bottom line is you need role players on your team as well.   If someone asked me if I'd take 58 receptions, near 600 yards and 7 touchdowns from a 2nd year, 2nd round draft pick, while playing with Nathan Peterman, Matt Barkley, Derek Anderson, and a rookie at QB, I'd sign up for it every time.  

 

Your logic has absolutely no place in this thread.  Please stop.