thebandit27 Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, eball said: I think this is a reasonable statement -- I'll only disagree that they "bungled" the OL. They couldn't predict Wood's injury/retirement, and I guess they didn't need to ask Richie to take a pay cut but they certainly didn't expect him to flip out the way he did. If both of those guys had returned last year we could have seen some much different results. I think they rushed to trade Glenn and made no attempt to upgrade the RT spot, which exposed their franchise QB to more duress than necessary. I'll give them a partial pass for Wood and Richie, though I do think that depth at guard was obviously an issue once Richie was released.
JohnC Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I agree with the philosophy you express here. McBeane have been very clear that their intention is to build a long term winner and therefore they are not doing everything possible to win now. And I can see how they're doing it. However, of the Bills are worse than 6-10 this season, something is wrong. McD has lost the locker room. McD is a failure as an offensive head coach. Something is really screwed up. If the offense doesn't improve considerably over last season, something is wrong. If the defense falls apart, something is wrong. 5-11 the Pegulas will be forced to think long and hard before letting McD have another season. Your post was clear and cogent. I agree with much of what you said but not totally so. Where I disagree with you is that while this regime wanted to build a long term winner they certainly were aware of the urgency to win in the near future. The era of the five year plans of mostly using the draft at the exclusion of participating in the free agent market doesn't apply so much now because players have the contractual option to leave. The Bills were very active in the free agent market this offseason. They (hopefully) rebuilt the OL and upgraded the receiving corps through the free agent market. That certainly is a reflection of a more win now than waiting for a longer term plan to come into fruition. Let's not forget that the roster that McDermott took over is very much turned over. This is for the most part a different team remade in two years. Can the Bills have a 6-10 season this year? Yes. The difference between success and mediocrity can be luck or not, injuries or not, inaccurate referee calls or not. Sometimes a one year record doesn't necessarily reflect the accumulated progress. And where I disagree with is that based on McDermott has conducted himself so far I don't see him losing the locker run even if the team is subjected to short term setbacks.
Royale with Cheese Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, eball said: I don't think it's "playoffs or bust" -- I think it's a better than .500 record, the elimination of "bad losses" like we've seen the past couple of years, and offensive statistics that aren't mired at the bottom of the league. Those are my criteria, anyway. I'm in the "playoffs now" mode. I think they've made the improvements they needed to make to make this team competitive. They've put better talent on the offensive line to help Allen and got another speedster to stretch the field. We should see improvements in both the run/pass game. Our defense is playoff caliber...I think we're just another edge rusher away from being great. It's time for our offense to make the next step. If Josh Allen can be a 24 TD/10 INT, 3,500 yard passing, 500 rushing....we should be in good shape I think. 1 1
eball Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: I think they rushed to trade Glenn and made no attempt to upgrade the RT spot, which exposed their franchise QB to more duress than necessary. I'll give them a partial pass for Wood and Richie, though I do think that depth at guard was obviously an issue once Richie was released. Fair points. I give them a pass on Glenn because that was a good trade and provided some of the draft capital used to acquire Allen and Edmunds. 1
JohnC Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: I think they rushed to trade Glenn and made no attempt to upgrade the RT spot, which exposed their franchise QB to more duress than necessary. I'll give them a partial pass for Wood and Richie, though I do think that depth at guard was obviously an issue once Richie was released. I agree with you that McBeane rushed to trade Glenn. But there was a good reason for that: He wasn't in their plans. That deal with the Bengals put us in a position to maneuver to move up and select Josh Allen. I'll take that deal any day of the weak. Was our line weakened last year with the departures? No question about it. But that issue was not a lingering issue because this offseason there was a focus to address that glaring liability with a number of free agent acquisitions. Bandito, you are not going to fix all your problems in one or two years. It takes some time. In two years a number of issues on both sides of the ball have been addressed with more to do. From an overview perspective a lot was done in a relatively short period of time.
Nihilarian Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 1 hour ago, SoTier said: I'm not sure what you consider a failure. Obviously, you have much more tolerance for poor performance than I do, because going 6-10 the season after a playoff appearance screams "FAIL!" to me. IMO, McDermott has completely used up any and all of his free passes. Because of league parity imposed by the salary cap, good coaching is essential. Part of being a good NFL HC is hiring good assistants. That's why certain HCs produce winners anywhere and everywhere they go and create "coaching trees" of former assistants who go on to become good HCs on their own. McDermott's assistants on offense and special teams have been disasters. That's what happens in almost any endeavor when you rely on nepotism to fill key positions. Many of his personnel decisions have been questionable at best ... Peterman and Jones from the 2017 draft are most notable. McDermott puts a better product on the field -- ie, minimum 8 wins -- or he deserves to be unemployed for 2020. As for Beane, at least he's not saddled with the 2017 draft but the only thing that he's done positive is go "all in" on a QB. His fate will be determined by Josh Allen's success or failure, and at least he has tried to improve Allen's supporting cast this season which gives the kid at least a chance to succeed. This is the pitchforks and torches I was taking about in an earlier post. The majority of this board saw and knew that the 2018 offensive line was in real trouble without Woods, Incognito. We knew the replacements weren't very good. We also already knew that run game coordinator/O line coach Juan Castillo was the wrong guy for the job. Although, some were in a wait and see mode for the line. Most of us also knew starting Peterman against the Ravens in the season opener was going to be a mistake. That not having a seasoned, veteran NFL QB coach was going to be a big problem with such young, inexperienced QBs at the starter and backup positions after the team traded AJ McCarron. What I'm saying is, a lot of us were expecting the results we saw for the 2018 season and trust me a lot of us also were complaining as the season progressed. So no, I don't consider the 2018 season a failure considering that the GM's hands were tied to bringing in top quality free agent replacements for Wood, Incognito due to cap space restrictions. Same thing goes for the receiving corps. So much that was wrong with the 2018 season that this GM/ HC has addressed and corrected, ie, players, coaches. Bottom line is that this team is going to field a second year QB still learning his craft as an NFL pocket passer. And let's face it, Josh Allen doesn't have Andy Reid coaching him, nor does he have a trio of stars at RB, WR, TE like Patrick Mahomes had last season. He doesn't have a Sean McVay or a Matt Nagy either. What he does have is a defensive minded HC with an OC who in his five seasons as an NFL OC has never had a passing offense better than #23rd in passing yards and 3 of 5 of those seasons were worse than 30th. Brian Daboll does have a back ground with some good coaching staffs (Patriots) so there is hope that he can do a better job. We can expect the 2019 Bills defense to be in the top ten or better and hopefully the offense will take a big step up with the upgrades on the O line and at WR. Should the offense fail this season I can see changes made with the OC and not the HC/GM. 1
Magox Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 55 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: I like Beane and McDermott. I think they have a shot to put a legitimate contender together. But let's be intellectually honest in our evaluations is all I'm saying I agree. That the worth of Watkins to this or any other team has never even come close to whiffing the cost incurred to attain him. That two 1st round draft choices specially in a year so rich with WR's was indeed an absolutely atrocious decision considering his injuries, lack of consistent production, what he meant to the team and his general attitude which by many accounts he was not beloved by his teammates. And even afterwards with 2 really good passing teams no matter how you slice it and dice it his production and value to the team hasnt lived up to the value of the contract he received. He has been a disappointment relative to what he was supposed to have been.
GunnerBill Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 3 hours ago, JohnC said: I say this respectfully but the mistake you are making is looking at each season as one year entities. That's too microscopic of a perspective for such a big and complex endeavor. If the owners believe that the Bills have not made progress in their rebuild entering their third year then this regime would be in jeopardy of being dispatched after a failed season. I don't believe that is the case. Truthfully that is precisely the opposite of what I am doing. If you have a regime in place for three years and you get progressively worse each year (from 9 wins to 6 wins to 5 wins) then that has to be considered as an overall body of work. At the moment I am sure the owners do think the regime has taken a step in the rebuild this offseason, I think we all do. But if the results are worse (save for in exceptional circumstances like playing their backup QB all year) then honestly I believe they will feel differently come the end of the season. As we have discussed before I think this is largely theoretical because I expect the Bills to be improved and I think the schedule is favourable so I would be shocked if they win fewer games. But if they do I expect the Pegulas to start over again in 2020. 1
Coach Tuesday Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Truthfully that is precisely the opposite of what I am doing. If you have a regime in place for three years and you get progressively worse each year (from 9 wins to 6 wins to 5 wins) then that has to be considered as an overall body of work. At the moment I am sure the owners do think the regime has taken a step in the rebuild this offseason, I think we all do. But if the results are worse (save for in exceptional circumstances like playing their backup QB all year) then honestly I believe they will feel differently come the end of the season. As we have discussed before I think this is largely theoretical because I expect the Bills to be improved and I think the schedule is favourable so I would be shocked if they win fewer games. But if they do I expect the Pegulas to start over again in 2020. Agreed. If they are on the losing end of epic blowouts like 2018 and Allen doesn't show improvement, McD is in real trouble.
K-9 Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Truthfully that is precisely the opposite of what I am doing. If you have a regime in place for three years and you get progressively worse each year (from 9 wins to 6 wins to 5 wins) then that has to be considered as an overall body of work. At the moment I am sure the owners do think the regime has taken a step in the rebuild this offseason, I think we all do. But if the results are worse (save for in exceptional circumstances like playing their backup QB all year) then honestly I believe they will feel differently come the end of the season. As we have discussed before I think this is largely theoretical because I expect the Bills to be improved and I think the schedule is favourable so I would be shocked if they win fewer games. But if they do I expect the Pegulas to start over again in 2020. Depends on the nature of the regression. If a new regime inherits an already maxed out roster, especially at QB, and determines that 9 wins is the absolute ceiling before that maxed out roster declines, it’s understandable why they would seek a new start and go in another direction. Again, especially at QB. Shorter term pain, for longer term gain. And if the new regime can convince ownership that’s their best current option, more time and patience may be allotted. That said, a drastic regression in performance and wins without legitimate reasons for either, would certainly be open to new analysis. Edited June 7, 2019 by K-9 1
GunnerBill Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, K-9 said: Depends on the nature of the regression. If a new regime inherits an already maxed out roster, especially at QB, and determines that 9 wins is the absolute ceiling before that maxed out roster declines, it’s understandable why they would seek a new start and go in another direction. Again, especially at QB. Shorter term pain, for longer term gain. And if the new regime can convince ownership that’s their best current option, more time and patience may be allotted. That was the excuse for last year. And I think it made sense when $50m of last year's cap was being spent on guys no longer on the team and when we ended the year with two UDFAs starting at key positions and had a rookie QB and lost three pro bowlers off our offensive line for a myriad of reasons. But this year they have spent in free agency, their QB is in year 2, they have both coordinators back and continuity on both sides of the ball they are returning 10 starters from the league's #2 overall defense... and their schedule looks much more straightforward than last year (I know that doesn't always work out but based on how it looks right now). I expect improvement and I don't see how they defend further regression unless they have some major extenuating circumstances.
BADOLBILZ Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 21 minutes ago, K-9 said: Depends on the nature of the regression. If a new regime inherits an already maxed out roster, especially at QB, and determines that 9 wins is the absolute ceiling before that maxed out roster declines, it’s understandable why they would seek a new start and go in another direction. Again, especially at QB. Shorter term pain, for longer term gain. And if the new regime can convince ownership that’s their best current option, more time and patience may be allotted. That said, a drastic regression in performance and wins without legitimate reasons for either, would certainly be open to new analysis. If the players were so maxed out why are we seeing them produce at much higher levels elsewhere and or play key roles in conference championship games and Super Bowls with other teams the past two seasons? A lot of terrible excuses have been made for McBeane...........casting every player they chose not to retain as some kind of maxed-out player or locker room cancer is absurd. Had they just chose to retain Lynn and Whaley they could very well have become a much better team............it's by no means a given that this kind of change had to be made......don't you think San Diego thought they had a culture problem when underachieving to 4 wins and 5 wins in the two seasons prior to hiring Anthony Lynn? Or the Rams? I mean, c'mon those teams were in Buffalo's rearview mirror as Rex was going out the door. The McBeane changes are VERY similar to the changes made between the Gregg Williams and Dick Jauron regimes. Donahoe was all about stacking talent and he and everyone else was discouraged with the lack of determination the group showed under duress. So enter Dick Jauron and a simpler offensive gameplay and a bendy/no breaky defense and a focus on culture and signing journeyman role players in high volume(who then failed) because they fit the culture that Jauron and Levy envisioned. People act like the McBeane approach is so refreshing............it's not. Hopefully it works better than Jauron's culture based re-build but that probably comes down ENTIRELY to Josh Allen. 1 1
K-9 Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: That was the excuse for last year. And I think it made sense when $50m of last year's cap was being spent on guys no longer on the team and when we ended the year with two UDFAs starting at key positions and had a rookie QB and lost three pro bowlers off our offensive line for a myriad of reasons. But this year they have spent in free agency, their QB is in year 2, they have both coordinators back and continuity on both sides of the ball they are returning 10 starters from the league's #2 overall defense... and their schedule looks much more straightforward than last year (I know that doesn't always work out but based on how it looks right now). I expect improvement and I don't see how they defend further regression unless they have some major extenuating circumstances. This is year two and, again, if there is a gross regression from year one, it will depend on the nature of the regression. You and others have previously and fairly pointed out that extenuating circumstances like injury, etc., would add a context to consider in the discussion. But imo, McBeane get more than two years, regardless. This roster, while improved on paper with an infusion of free agents and promising rookie draft picks, is still a work in progress and not complete. There can be marked improvement that doesn’t necessarily manifest in wins, too. And while wins are certainly the ultimate yardstick, I can see ownership not clearing house after year two if they are satisfied that they are on the right track. Me, you, and the fan base may not appreciate that, but I can see a front office and football administration buying into that. Kind of like ‘87 and year 2 of the Kelly era, when they finished under .500 but were clearly on the rise.
dave mcbride Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Carroll? He was up and down before joining the Seahawks. 7-9 his first two seasons and 11-5 in his third before winning the Super Bowl in his fourth there. Vermeil? The Eagles had success in his third year there after two losing seasons to start his career. He's always been a good coach. I said if they aren't successful after 3 years chances are they never will be. History suggest that. You don't get 5 and rarely 4 years to build a team and show results in the modern day NFL. Carroll and Vermeil were highly successful college coaches. Carroll also took teams to the playoffs in both his second and third NFL coaching seasons (in NE). 1
GunnerBill Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, K-9 said: Kind of like ‘87 and year 2 of the Kelly era, when they finished under .500 but were clearly on the rise. Yes but '87 was still improvement for '86 - they were trending up. If the Bills were to go 7-9 (ie. One win better than last year) I think it would be a disappointment but I think McDermott and Beane would get year 4. I have even said I think they would probably stay after another 6-10. I am talking very specifically about further regression from last season. I don't know how they would explain that to ownership in a way that makes sense.
JohnC Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 58 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Truthfully that is precisely the opposite of what I am doing. If you have a regime in place for three years and you get progressively worse each year (from 9 wins to 6 wins to 5 wins) then that has to be considered as an overall body of work. At the moment I am sure the owners do think the regime has taken a step in the rebuild this offseason, I think we all do. But if the results are worse (save for in exceptional circumstances like playing their backup QB all year) then honestly I believe they will feel differently come the end of the season. As we have discussed before I think this is largely theoretical because I expect the Bills to be improved and I think the schedule is favourable so I would be shocked if they win fewer games. But if they do I expect the Pegulas to start over again in 2020. Our chasm can not be overcome. I do not foresee any scenario where McDermott will not be our HC in 2020. Maybe in 2021 but not sooner. As you stated this is largely a theoretical discussion. 1
BADOLBILZ Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Yes but '87 was still improvement for '86 - they were trending up. If the Bills were to go 7-9 (ie. One win better than last year) I think it would be a disappointment but I think McDermott and Beane would get year 4. I have even said I think they would probably stay after another 6-10. I am talking very specifically about further regression from last season. I don't know how they would explain that to ownership in a way that makes sense. In-season circumstances matter A LOT. If they go 6-10 with more blowouts and have two more hopeless showings against Belichick and their walking wounded UFA class continues to be wounded and Daboll looks like he's holding Allen back.........any combo of those kind of things could trigger a change. I think the bigger issue is that The Pegs have to feel like they have replacements in mind this time............and I don't feel confident that they do so I think they would be more hesitant to pull the trigger because of their grass-greenness as football people.
GunnerBill Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: In-season circumstances matter A LOT. If they go 6-10 with more blowouts and have two more hopeless showings against Belichick and their walking wounded UFA class continues to be wounded and Daboll looks like he's holding Allen back.........any combo of those kind of things could trigger a change. I think the bigger issue is that The Pegs have to feel like they have replacements in mind this time............and I don't feel confident that they do so I think they would be more hesitant to pull the trigger because of their grass-greenness as football people. Yes there is certainly a 6-10 that is fireable. The question is beyond a major injury to the QB or half the starters being on IR is there a 5-11 that is not?
dave mcbride Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: In-season circumstances matter A LOT. If they go 6-10 with more blowouts and have two more hopeless showings against Belichick and their walking wounded UFA class continues to be wounded and Daboll looks like he's holding Allen back.........any combo of those kind of things could trigger a change. I think the bigger issue is that The Pegs have to feel like they have replacements in mind this time............and I don't feel confident that they do so I think they would be more hesitant to pull the trigger because of their grass-greenness as football people. The other thing is that whether it's deserved or not, Beane and McDermott have a lot respect around the league and are well-liked. The Pegulas are followers and not mavericks in these matters, and my guess is that they won't regard getting rid of these two as a good look. Hence they won't get rid of them if they go 6-10 this season. I don't think any of their firees in the Sabres organization or Rex/Whaley are remotely comparable to Beane/McDermott. 1
K-9 Posted June 7, 2019 Posted June 7, 2019 46 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Yes but '87 was still improvement for '86 - they were trending up. If the Bills were to go 7-9 (ie. One win better than last year) I think it would be a disappointment but I think McDermott and Beane would get year 4. I have even said I think they would probably stay after another 6-10. I am talking very specifically about further regression from last season. I don't know how they would explain that to ownership in a way that makes sense. So it’s all about no regression in the win column without extenuating circumstances then. As a fan, I can respect that. As someone who realizes football administrations don’t think like fans, I think McBeane get a 3rd year, regardless. 1
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