John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I hear you on the blowouts,  but if I'm not mistaken Peterman was a part of most of them.  I know Josh was a part of the GB,  and the Patriots game. I don't remember who started against the Colts,  but they Mauled us. 

 

Ravens: Peterman then Allen
Green Bay: Allen

Colts: Anderson

Patriots: Anderson (Peterman cameo after Anderson knocked out)

Bears: Peterman
2nd Patriots: Allen (not a blowout but never really in game either)

 

I hadn't remembered that Peterman QB'd against the Bears.  So 2 blowouts to Peterman, 2 to Anderson, 2 to Allen.

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I hear you on the blowouts,  but if I'm not mistaken Peterman was a part of most of them.  I know Josh was a part of the GB,  and the Patriots game. I don't remember who started against the Colts,  but they Mauled us. 

Petetman was part of the Ravens (and Frasier calling a crap defense)

The Chargers (McD got tired of Frasier's calling a crap defense at the half).

 

Edited April 30, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan

[BringBackOrton]

On 4/27/2019 at 12:02 PM, Shaw66 said:

That's a really insightful commentary. I hadn't thought about the Allen angle - acquire a legitimate franchise qb prospect without mortgaging the future.  

 

I think Beane is one talented dude.  

That point is a little overstated, I think. "Mortgaging the future" is mostly in the minds of the fans.

 

The dirty little secret to the NFL is that the future never really arrives anymore.  Between FA and trades, it only takes a year or two to bounce back, even after trading a bunch of picks.

[DrDawkinstein]

On 4/27/2019 at 6:38 AM, BillyWhiteShows said:

Take this for what you will.  Probably one of the most reliable, informed, and well-connected Bills reporters has great things to say about what Beane and McDermott have done over the past 3 years.

 

 

 

Found jw's alt account ?

 

But for real, jw is excellent and has been one of our most valuable posters here at TBD.

 

And it's great to finally see a GM and HC who are working in sync and have some job stability. It's about damn time the team is run like a group of professional adults.

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

That point is a little overstated, I think. "Mortgaging the future" is mostly in the minds of the fans.

 

The dirty little secret to the NFL is that the future never really arrives anymore.  Between FA and trades, it only takes a year or two to bounce back, even after trading a bunch of picks.

Mostly true I guess.  Wasnt there a period of several years when the Seahawks were going deep into the playoffs, and making/winning Superbowls where they didn't a first round pick like 3 or 4 years in a row because of trades? I think they gave up one of them in the PErcy Harvin trade if I am not mistaken...didn't seem to hurt them too much...

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

That point is a little overstated, I think. "Mortgaging the future" is mostly in the minds of the fans.

 

The dirty little secret to the NFL is that the future never really arrives anymore.  Between FA and trades, it only takes a year or two to bounce back, even after trading a bunch of picks.

 

The Bills spent way to much to bring in star power that under performed and Beane just got us free of that wasteful spending.   

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

52 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

Then I will ask you this, do you think that Beane and McDermott have made the correct moves this offseason to improve the team?

 

I don't know?  They tried.  They drafted some good players.  They signed a big pack of Middle Class FA OLmen so at least there will be competition.
 

I would have liked to see us sign another quality OLman to go with Morse, a true #1 WR, and a quality edge rusher, but those guys are scarce and hard to sign.  Until Josh Allen proves himself as a passing QB, top FA WR aren't going to want to sign here.

 

As I've said elsewhere, they were really in a tough spot because both the OL and the WR corps were so poor last year, but my sympathy was limited because I felt it was a self-inflicted wound.  They could have made a bigger push to retain some talent at WR and to sign some quality OL last season - there were some to be found that could have been made to fit our budget, but we tried to cheap it with Bodine.

 

I think what bothers me most is that on paper, or "by pedigree" if you will, they did make what look like serious efforts to acquire WR but the outcome was lacking, calling their player personnel evaluation at offensive skill positions into question.  They traded up to draft Zay Jones; so far he hasn't lived up to expectations for a high 2nd round guy.  They traded for Jordan Matthews, who by draft position and stats looked as though he could be as good or better than Robert-Woods (both drafted in the 2nd, both >60% catch, 40-50 ypg guys - Matthews had slightly better stats for catch % and YPG) - wrong.  They traded for Kelvin Benjamin, a former #1 pick who battled injuries and they felt had a better work ethic and was a better fit for a young zip-code-accuracy QB than Sammy Watkins - also wrong.  Then the Anquan Boldin and Corey Coleman debacles.  So I can't fault them for making what look like correct moves on paper ("pedigree"), but those moves just don't seem to be working out.

Sometimes it almost seems they're going off word of mouth, former draft position, or analytics and not actual eyeball scouting which is strange because drafting Josh Allen was most definitely an "eyeball scouting" move.

 

25 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Just my take, but I think Hapless was more referring to Coaching in games against upper-echelon teams than the roster. Pretty sure he’s O-fer vs Pats*, Bmore, Chargers. We need to see HIM step up his game in year 3.

 

Correct and agree.

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

Mostly true I guess.  Wasnt there a period of several years when the Seahawks were going deep into the playoffs, and making/winning Superbowls where they didn't a first round pick like 3 or 4 years in a row because of trades? I think they gave up one of them in the PErcy Harvin trade if I am not mistaken...didn't seem to hurt them too much...

Exactly.  How about the Rams, who were in the Super Bowl this year.  Does it matter they "mortgaged the future" for Goff?  Or the Eagles, who "mortgaged the future" for Wentz and have already won a Super Bowl?

 

Ed Oliver is a great prospect and should be a great player.  But if I could trade him to give Allen a 10% better chance of being our franchise QB, I'd do it in a second.  That's today's NFL.

1 minute ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

The Bills spent way to much to bring in star power that under performed and Beane just got us free of that wasteful spending.   

 

Depends on how you look at it I suppose.  Dareus is a prime example.  We slashed his spending, then spent a 3rd on Phillips, signed Star to decent sized deal, and spent a 1st on Oliver to shore up the interior DL.  Are we better off?  Probably.  Was that wasteful spending?  No.

[PolishPrince]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ravens: Peterman then Allen
Green Bay: Allen

Colts: Anderson

Patriots: Anderson (Peterman cameo after Anderson knocked out)

Bears: Peterman
2nd Patriots: Allen (not a blowout but never really in game either)

 

I hadn't remembered that Peterman QB'd against the Bears.  So 2 blowouts to Peterman, 2 to Anderson, 2 to Allen.

 

I will say the second patriots game, I thought Allen played "fine." I counted three should be TD's that were dropped: Counting Foster losing ball in the sun on a perfect throw, bullet that went right through Logan Thomas hands at back right corner endzone, and I think the third was Zay jones left side of endzone. One of my friends happened to be watching this game (his first Bills game that season) and texted me halfway through the game "are the Bill's wr's always this terrible? This is disgusting." I think Allen actually played better vs the Pats than Darnold did.

[DrDawkinstein]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The thing is, football games aren't played on paper

 

3-13  10-6  5-11 last 3 years

 

It's a question of what one thinks as the reason. 

-Was Fournette a 1-hit wonder who fell off a cliff?

-They had a lot of churn on OL, including losing their LT on IR to an ACL early in the season, losing a LG to FA (then trying to re-sign him and plug him back in, didn't work).  They released their RT go this year.  Was that the reason their run game fell off a cliff and Bortles took 50% more sacks/threw 30% fewer touchdowns?

 

If so, have they fixed the line?

 

Or is it just a case of a team over-performing one year, then regressing to the mean as teams got tape on their plays with Fournette?

The thing about Foles is that outside the Superbowl, he's a mixed bag at QB.  I personally maintain that his crap year with the Stl Rams wasn't his fault - it was "dysfunction junction" and the guy he had as his OC was fired midway through the season and hasn't worked as an OC since.  But it's clear Foles won't work well with any coach and any system.  He needs  guys who will work with him to keep his bad tendencies in check and maximize his strengths, as Shurmur and Musgrave and then Pederson, Reich, and DeFillipo did.

 

I do not think that Marrone and Hacket are quite the same as Shurmur or Pederson and Co. 

 

But I could be wrong.  Maybe Foles/Wentz is the new remake of Brees/Rivers and Marrone is the new Sean Payton. 

 

I'm kind of thinking "no", but could be.

 

 

 

Just a small note, Marrone finally ditched Hackett and has hired DeFilippo as OC, who was Foles' QB coach in Philly.

 

 

Edited April 30, 2019 by DrDawkinstein

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Just a small note, Marrone finally ditched Hackett and has hired DeFilippo as OC, who was Foles' QB coach in Philly.

 

INTERESTing.  I somehow missed that entirely.  How did I miss that?  Wow.

 

DeFilippo, who got fired in Minny partway through the season.

 

He should certainly know how to work with Foles.  I feel a lot better about Foles' chances to succeed in Jax now, provided they've fixed their line.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

I will say the second patriots game, I thought Allen played "fine." I counted three should be TD's that were dropped: Counting Foster losing ball in the sun on a perfect throw, bullet that went right through Logan Thomas hands at back right corner endzone, and I think the third was Zay jones left side of endzone. One of my friends happened to be watching this game (his first Bills game that season) and texted me halfway through the game "are the Bill's wr's always this terrible? This is disgusting." I think Allen actually played better vs the Pats than Darnold did.

 

Fair point.  To give the Bills their props, they also did a decent job containing Tommy Boy, too.

This is the game where I was on the fence, because I couldn't make up my mind if the Pats were actually contained in the pass, or if they were just resting Brady's arm because they were frog-marching us backward down the field for close to 300 yds rushing.  We didn't look as though we could stop a nosebleed running with the ball.

[BillsfaninSB]

21 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

I will say the second patriots game, I thought Allen played "fine." I counted three should be TD's that were dropped: Counting Foster losing ball in the sun on a perfect throw, bullet that went right through Logan Thomas hands at back right corner endzone, and I think the third was Zay jones left side of endzone. One of my friends happened to be watching this game (his first Bills game that season) and texted me halfway through the game "are the Bill's wr's always this terrible? This is disgusting." I think Allen actually played better vs the Pats than Darnold did.

 

I remember watching the K.C. /Seattle game last year.   Wilson was throwing up these lobs (great location) and the receivers were just bringing them in like they were magnets.  I remember thinking why can’t we have that. 

[sullim4]

3 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

Remember week 2 of last season, the Chargers game?

 

Many people here said that McDermott & Beane were way over their heads and should be fired.

 

 

The decision to keep Peterman over McCarron was a huge blunder on both their parts.  I cannot possibly believe that McCarron's performance would have been worse than Peterman's.

[Reed83HOF]

On 4/27/2019 at 4:32 AM, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 i can't imagine what this team would be like under somebody else.

 

Yes you can, we have had like 17 years of it. Very Jeff Fisher like

[Delete This Account]

51 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

That point is a little overstated, I think. "Mortgaging the future" is mostly in the minds of the fans.

 

The dirty little secret to the NFL is that the future never really arrives anymore.  Between FA and trades, it only takes a year or two to bounce back, even after trading a bunch of picks.

 

Is it overstated?

Let's review.

The Bills made the foolish mistake of drafting EJ Manuel, which set the franchise back for two years wasting time waiting for him to develop.

If that wasn't bad enough, the Bills then doubled down on their mistake the following year by giving up a first-round draft pick to select Sammy Watkins to prop up a quarterback who wasn't going to succeed, thus mortgaging yet another year, and possibly two, of building the team.

 

Add in a few more ill-conceived contracts and a bad coaching hire in Rex, and It's taken six years to finally get out of that hole.

 

It's a dirty little secret only if you don't compound one mistake with another and another.

 

And that's what happened.

 

jw

 

 

10 minutes ago, sullim4 said:

 

The decision to keep Peterman over McCarron was a huge blunder on both their parts.  I cannot possibly believe that McCarron's performance would have been worse than Peterman's.

 

Here's a nugget: What if AJ wanted out because he was unhappy he got hurt and wasn't awarded the starting job.

The Bills weren't going to win the opener with either three of the quarterbacks.

The only mistake made, which Beane has fessed up to, is he should've brought in Anderson the minute he traded McCarron.

Lesson learned.

 

Move on.

 

jw

[sullim4]

5 minutes ago, john wawrow said:

 

Here's a nugget: What if AJ wanted out because he was unhappy he got hurt and wasn't awarded the starting job.

The Bills weren't going to win the opener with either three of the quarterbacks.

The only mistake made, which Beane has fessed up to, is he should've brought in Anderson the minute he traded McCarron.

Lesson learned.

 

Move on.

 

jw

 

That is very interesting, thanks for the insight.  I agree - if McCarron wanted out, you had to get rid of him.  But neglecting to replace him was indeed short-sighted.

[Uncle Joe]

55 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't know?  They tried.  They drafted some good players.  They signed a big pack of Middle Class FA OLmen so at least there will be competition.
 

I would have liked to see us sign another quality OLman to go with Morse, a true #1 WR, and a quality edge rusher, but those guys are scarce and hard to sign.  Until Josh Allen proves himself as a passing QB, top FA WR aren't going to want to sign here.

 

<snip>

I believe Beane is building his core via the draft. From what I've seen WR and edge rusher will probably be a priority in next year's draft . We did get a Ford this year on the OL and may add another OL next year. A lot of 1 year deals in free agency this year.

Edited April 30, 2019 by Uncle Joe

[John from Riverside]

15 minutes ago, sullim4 said:

 

The decision to keep Peterman over McCarron was a huge blunder on both their parts.  I cannot possibly believe that McCarron's performance would have been worse than Peterman's.

Look.....qb mistakes were made....they should have done a better job finding a vet to go along with the rookie they were going to draft

 

but

 

It would not made one bit of difference.....because they also had to replace 2 starting linemen and they were not able to do that AND everything has been pointing to THIS offseason when were going to have all that cap space to fill the positions with the correct type of players.....

 

Dont judge them on what they did last year......in a rebiulding year nobody is gonna be happen with the final win loss team final standing.....judge them on what they do THIS year when they were not hamstrung by dead cap.

 

 

[BringBackOrton]

Just now, john wawrow said:

 

Is it overstated?

Let's review.

The Bills made the foolish mistake of drafting EJ Manuel, which set the franchise back for two years wasting time waiting for him to develop.

If that wasn't bad enough, the Bills then doubled down on their mistake the following year by giving up a first-round draft pick to select Sammy Watkins to prop up a quarterback who wasn't going to succeed, thus mortgaging yet another year, and possibly two, of building the team.

 

Add in a few more ill-conceived contracts and a bad coaching hire in Rex, and It's taken six years to finally get out of that hole.

 

It's a dirty little secret only if you don't compound one mistake with another and another.

 

And that's what happened.

 

jw

 

 

Let's.

 

"The Bills made the foolish mistake of drafting EJ Manuel, which set the franchise back for two years wasting time waiting for him to develop."

This differs from Allen, disregarding the prospect quality, how?

This is what you said:

 

"That said, how the #Bills went about obtaining Allen didn't leave them vulnernable in terms of future draft picks.
The trades were limited to last year. ...

 

As a result, if Allen doesn't pan out -- and there's no indication right now that he won't -- the Bills haven't mortgaged their future in being solely tied to his future. ..."

 

We didn't obtain EJ by leaving us vulnerable in terms of future picks, did we?

 

"which set the franchise back for two years wasting time waiting for him to develop."

 

Seeing as Allen hasn't even played a second season yet, how can we say we aren't "wasting two years waiting for him to develop?"  I don't think we are, but that sounds a lot like counting your chickens before they hatched to me.

 

"If that wasn't bad enough, the Bills then doubled down on their mistake the following year by giving up a first-round draft pick to select Sammy Watkins to prop up a quarterback who wasn't going to succeed, thus mortgaging yet another year, and possibly two, of building the team."

 

What a wonderfully archaic notion, and a symptom of NFL tradition.  Losing a first round pick means you're out of the QB game, always and forever I guess.  The Bills missed out on such wonderful available QBs with #19 of the 2015 draft like Garrett Grayson, Bryce Petty, and Brett Hundley.  Surely drafting those guys with a #1 would have saved us.

 

Or maybe, it's your opinion that the 2014 Bills would have gone 1-15 without Sammy Watkins and we could have grabbed Mariota or Winston.  Those guys have both proven to be the answer at QB, after all.  Those franchises aren't "wasting time" on those two young guys, unsure of whether to walk away or not.  

 

"Add in a few more ill-conceived contracts and a bad coaching hire in Rex, and It's taken six years to finally get out of that hole."

 

Neither of which have to do with "mortgaging the future" or "trading assets up to obtain QBs.  Was Rex hired to save EJ?  Did we resign Dareus and Shady to improve our football team or save EJ's career?  Is this thing on?

 

Like I stated above, the dirty little secret is that mortgaging the future is crap.  The Bills screwed up with EJ when they didn't immediately continue to search for other QB's when he proved he was a dud.  No more, no less. The Rams don't care about their mortgaged future.  The Eagles mortgaged their future to buy a Super Bowl ring.  

 

I'd trade 10 first rounds picks to give Allen the best chance to win a Super Bowl.  This fear-mongering and belief that the absence of risk is the best way forward is nonsense perpetuated by GM's that want to keep their jobs without appearing like they gambled and they lost.