John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

[Gugny]

30 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Belichick is the exepction.

 

There hasn't been too many other HC/GM combos who've been mediocre to below average their first 3 years and gone on to win in their fourth or elsewhere.

 

Its been discussed but history shows that if your basically a dud for three years you aren't going to suddenly emerge in your fourth.... but I'm guessing they'll be back for a 4th barring an absolute disaster. I think it would have to be a 4-5 win season or worse, IMO. 

 

I think you are trivializing the effect of inept ownership, here.  When Terry Pegula said, "here, Kim, here's your new toy," that led to the Ryan Bros. Circus, Tyrod and the complete dismantling of a top 3 NFL defense.  McDermott and Beane inherited, arguably, the most effed up franchise in the league.

 

They inherited bad contracts, bad players and bad coaches - all led by a bad front office.

 

To think they could turn that around in two years is naive, at best.  Year three should show forward progress (not necessarily wins).  If that happens, they're not "a dud."

 

The Bills have had crappy ownership since day one.  It seems that two years ago, the Pegulas finally realized that their sole purpose is to open up the checkbook and not to hire coaches.

 

Not giving McDermott and Beane at least this year and next year to put a truly decent product on the field (i.e. - a legitimate playoff run) is nothing short of asinine, in my opinion.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

What is a "full" rebuild? 

 

It doesnt take 4 years to build a winner in the modern day NFL. If you aren't successful in 3 years you in all likelihood never will be. 

Yes same here.

 

Im just suggesting if they have another lousy year chances are these guys will never be successful here.

Giving regimes three years or less hasn’t worked out well for this franchise.  If we go 3-13 or something and our offense doesn’t improve then obviously they’re gone.  If we go 6-10 and could easily be 9-7 if we caught a few breaks it’s a different story.  Focusing only on record and setting a minimum win standard for regimes to stay is how bad franchises are run.

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

No this regime will not get the axe if the team goes 6-10 this season. I'm confident of that. The owner is invested in McDermott and will ride that pony a lot longer. 

 

Which is where the debate is as @LSHMEAB says because I don't believe they are definitely safe at 6-10 (barring huge injuries to key players - especially JA). And certainly as I have said before anything less than 6-10 (ie. regression with all the moves they have made) and I think they would both be in serious, serious danger. I don't know why people assume ownership would remain patient when you look at how many Presidents, GMs and Head Coaches they have been through between two teams in their time in Buffalo. 

[Magox]

At 6-10 no one would be happy but unless there was a player mutiny or fallout between ownership and McD, I wouldn't say "safe" would be their job status but very likely McD would be back for the following year much to the chagrin of fans.    

 

I believe this regime is on very sound footing, as they should be.  

[SoTier]

10 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Your feelings get bruised rather easily

 

You have repeatedly questioned my fandom since I dared to question the belief among many posters here that McDermott and Beane walk on water.  I simply chose not to respond to your posts in recent months until this one.

[ALF]

I want to trust McBeane for at least 5 years. They will make more mistakes and hopefully learn from them. Castillo was a major mistake .

If they can hire a good scouting dept is another key. 

[SoTier]

9 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

All Watkins was in Buffalo was an expensive decoy and all that money for his potential... that the team that owns him might never see as the guy is always injured. I don't expect 2019 to any different. Sammy has been in the NFL for five seasons and he has only played in one full season and in that year he was constantly nursing one injury or another.

 

As for Gilmore and Darby, they didn't fit what the Bills wanted to do and if anything... this coaching staff knows their stuff when it comes to DBs as they had the #1 pass defense in the league last season. Robert Woods didn't want to stay in Buffalo and wanted back in LA. 

 

Yes, KB was a mistake as was waiting so long to sign a veteran QB in Anderson, as he wasn't sure if he was ever going to play again and was contemplating retirement. Beane admitted this was a mistake. Nathan Peterman was a mistake, a big mistake and the HC must have had input from the OCs on that mistake. AJ McCarron came to Buffalo and pulled a Flacco by saying he wasn't here to mentor anyone, good riddance! 

 

Yes, they almost got Josh Allen killed with a bad offensive line. Bad O line coach/run game coordinator, bad WR coach, bad QB coach, bad ST coach. Although, unlike all the past regimes since the Butler era all the issues have been addressed. Trust me when I say I used to be the pinnacle of complaining when things went wrong and although a lot went wrong last season. However, a lot went right this off season too.

 

Here is a concept, how about we wait until until the team actually falls on it's face before we bring out the torches and pitchforks. I can see this team winning 9 or 10 games or even more if the run defense is as good as the pass defense. 

 

I'm not sure what you consider a failure.  Obviously, you have much more tolerance for poor performance than I do, because  going 6-10 the season after a playoff appearance screams "FAIL!" to me.   IMO, McDermott has completely used up any and all of his free passes.  Because of league parity imposed by the salary cap, good coaching is essential.  Part of being a good NFL HC is hiring good assistants.  That's why certain HCs produce winners anywhere and everywhere they go and create "coaching trees" of former assistants who go on to become good HCs on their own.  McDermott's assistants on offense and special teams have been disasters.  That's what happens in almost any endeavor when you rely on nepotism to fill key positions.  Many of his  personnel decisions have been questionable at best ... Peterman and Jones from the 2017 draft are most notable.   McDermott puts a better product on the field -- ie, minimum 8 wins -- or he deserves to be unemployed for 2020.

 

As for Beane, at least he's not saddled with the 2017 draft but the only thing that he's done positive is go "all in" on a QB.  His fate will be determined by Josh Allen's success or failure, and at least he has tried to improve Allen's supporting cast this season which gives the kid at least a chance to succeed. 

[oldmanfan]

18 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

You have repeatedly questioned my fandom since I dared to question the belief among many posters here that McDermott and Beane walk on water.  I simply chose not to respond to your posts in recent months until this one.

I have questioned your negativity and your lack of logic.  As an example you claim I have blinders on with the current regime, when in this very thread and many other I have talked about things I think they would have done differently such as Sammy, as well as that they will be fired if their plan does not succeed.  Your overreaction is somewhat comical; everyone here knows the Bills have work to do.

 

I think the clearest area where I don't see a logical progression of your thought process is your insistence on lumping the Pegula regime with Ralph's, particularly with respect to your insistence that the Pegulas are not interested in having a successful team vs. just making a profit.  There is no rationale to this claim.  If anything the Pegulas have spent more recklessly , such as hiring and firing coaches.

 

You're skeptical.  Great, and understandable.  But you use that to twist everything in a negative direction.  Have fun wallowing in misery, I guess.

 

 

6 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I'm not sure what you consider a failure.  Obviously, you have much more tolerance for poor performance than I do, because  going 6-10 the season after a playoff appearance screams "FAIL!" to me.   IMO, McDermott has completely used up any and all of his free passes.  Because of league parity imposed by the salary cap, good coaching is essential.  Part of being a good NFL HC is hiring good assistants.  That's why certain HCs produce winners anywhere and everywhere they go and create "coaching trees" of former assistants who go on to become good HCs on their own.  McDermott's assistants on offense and special teams have been disasters.  That's what happens in almost any endeavor when you rely on nepotism to fill key positions.  Many of his  personnel decisions have been questionable at best ... Peterman and Jones from the 2017 draft are most notable.   McDermott puts a better product on the field -- ie, minimum 8 wins -- or he deserves to be unemployed for 2020.

 

As for Beane, at least he's not saddled with the 2017 draft but the only thing that he's done positive is go "all in" on a QB.  His fate will be determined by Josh Allen's success or failure, and at least he has tried to improve Allen's supporting cast this season which gives the kid at least a chance to succeed. 

Maybe last year had something to do with a rookie QB playing.  And the Peterson debacle of course.

 

Beane admitted he did not handle the backup QB thing correctly last year.  Should we perhaps flog him in public to meet the desires of some fans?

[JohnC]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Which is where the debate is as @LSHMEAB says because I don't believe they are definitely safe at 6-10 (barring huge injuries to key players - especially JA). And certainly as I have said before anything less than 6-10 (ie. regression with all the moves they have made) and I think they would both be in serious, serious danger. I don't know why people assume ownership would remain patient when you look at how many Presidents, GMs and Head Coaches they have been through between two teams in their time in Buffalo. 

I respectfully but strenuously disagree with your stance. Churning through staffs hasn't resolved anything. It has perpetuated the instability that has resulted from one rebuild to another. The problem inherent in constantly changing staffs is that you are changing systems. Thus starting on a path only to go back to the starting line to go on to another path. That is a foolish and shortsighted way to run a franchise.

 

I believe  the Pegulas have learned their lessons from their reflexive change strategy. What I believe that they have learned is that the key to success is hire the right people and then give them the resources and time to work it out. It's evident to them that no strategy will work if you hire the wrong staff.

 

I say this respectfully but the mistake you are making is looking at each season as one year entities. That's too microscopic of a perspective for such a big and complex endeavor. If the owners believe that the Bills have not made progress in their rebuild entering their third year then this regime would be in jeopardy of being dispatched after a failed season. I don't believe that is the case. 

[JohnC]

10 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It wasn't just short term as they thought Benjamin could be our #1 WR for years.  It's still a black mark on his record but the reward was much higher than the risk.

I don't believe that McBeane ever thought that Benjamin would be our #1 WR for years. They were trying to upgrade a limited unit for an unexpected playoff run. This is a show me and earn it league. If Benjamin was able to demonstrate on the field that he was good enough to be a #1 receiver then more power to him. But there was no automatic commitment to him. He wasn't able to. Now he is gone. 

[HappyDays]

I hate the discussion about "if" the Bills go 6-10. I think everyone here agrees anything under 9-7 will be a disappointment. Unless Allen gets injured, if they go 6-10 the process has failed.

[thebandit27]

11 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

All Watkins was in Buffalo was an expensive decoy and all that money for his potential... that the team that owns him might never see as the guy is always injured. I don't expect 2019 to any different. Sammy has been in the NFL for five seasons and he has only played in one full season and in that year he was constantly nursing one injury or another.

 

As for Gilmore and Darby, they didn't fit what the Bills wanted to do and if anything... this coaching staff knows their stuff when it comes to DBs as they had the #1 pass defense in the league last season. Robert Woods didn't want to stay in Buffalo and wanted back in LA. 

 

Yes, KB was a mistake as was waiting so long to sign a veteran QB in Anderson, as he wasn't sure if he was ever going to play again and was contemplating retirement. Beane admitted this was a mistake. Nathan Peterman was a mistake, a big mistake and the HC must have had input from the OCs on that mistake. AJ McCarron came to Buffalo and pulled a Flacco by saying he wasn't here to mentor anyone, good riddance! 

 

Yes, they almost got Josh Allen killed with a bad offensive line. Bad O line coach/run game coordinator, bad WR coach, bad QB coach, bad ST coach. Although, unlike all the past regimes since the Butler era all the issues have been addressed. Trust me when I say I used to be the pinnacle of complaining when things went wrong and although a lot went wrong last season. However, a lot went right this off season too.

 

Here is a concept, how about we wait until until the team actually falls on it's face before we bring out the torches and pitchforks. I can see this team winning 9 or 10 games or even more if the run defense is as good as the pass defense. 

 

I feel like there's a whole lot of revisionism in this post.

 

Watkins was nothing but a decoy? He had almost 2,000 yards receiving in his first 29 games. With EJ, Orton, & Tyrod Taylor. In an offense that attempted fewer passes than any other in the league. What Bills' WR has come even close to matching that production since his departure?

 

If Gilmore and Darby don't fit your scheme, then the scheme is the problem. Gilmore has been, arguably, the best CB in the league since leaving in FA. Darby started for a Super Bowl champion team.

 

There can be no excusing the bungling of the backup QB, WR, and OL positions up through this offseason. Trying to do so is an exercise in futility.

 

I like Beane and McDermott. I think they have a shot to put a legitimate contender together. But let's be intellectually honest in our evaluations is all I'm saying 

Edited June 7, 2019 by thebandit27

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Belichick is the exepction.

 

There hasn't been too many other HC/GM combos who've been mediocre to below average their first 3 years and gone on to win in their fourth or elsewhere.

 

Pete Carroll.  Dick Vermeil.  

 

And I will note that both of those guys are high emotion, high character guys like McD.  And both plus Belichick were workaholics who kept improving.  McD is in the exact same mold. 

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Pete Carroll.  Dick Vermeil.  

 

And I will note that both of those guys are high emotion, high character guys like McD.  And both plus Belichick were workaholics who kept improving.  McD is in the exact same mold. 

 

You could also argue Tom Coughlin and Gary Kubiak.

[eball]

9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

There can be no excusing the bungling of the backup QB, WR, and OL positions up through this offseason. Trying to do so is an exercise in futility.

 

I like Beane and McDermott. I think they have a shot to put a legitimate contender together. But let's be intellectually honest in our evaluations is all I'm saying 

 

I think this is a reasonable statement -- I'll only disagree that they "bungled" the OL.  They couldn't predict Wood's injury/retirement, and I guess they didn't need to ask Richie to take a pay cut but they certainly didn't expect him to flip out the way he did.  If both of those guys had returned last year we could have seen some much different results.

[ROCBillsBeliever]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

 

Maybe last year had something to do with a rookie QB playing.  And the Peterson debacle of course.

 

Beane admitted he did not handle the backup QB thing correctly last year.  Should we perhaps flog him in public to meet the desires of some fans?

 

Hand @ScottLaw the bull whip... he would be elated.

[Shaw66]

57 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I respectfully but strenuously disagree with your stance. Churning through staffs hasn't resolved anything. It has perpetuated the instability that has resulted from one rebuild to another. The problem inherent in constantly changing staffs is that you are changing systems. Thus starting on a path only to go back to the starting line to go on to another path. That is a foolish and shortsighted way to run a franchise.

 

I believe  the Pegulas have learned their lessons from their reflexive change strategy. What I believe that they have learned is that the key to success is hire the right people and then give them the resources and time to work it out. It's evident to them that no strategy will work if you hire the wrong staff.

 

I say this respectfully but the mistake you are making is looking at each season as one year entities. That's too microscopic of a perspective for such a big and complex endeavor. If the owners believe that the Bills have not made progress in their rebuild entering their third year then this regime would be in jeopardy of being dispatched after a failed season. I don't believe that is the case. 

I agree with the philosophy you express here. McBeane have been very clear that their intention is to build a long term winner and therefore they are not doing everything possible to win now.  And I can see how they're doing it.

 

However, of the Bills are worse than 6-10 this season, something is wrong.  McD has lost the locker room.  McD is a failure as an offensive head coach.  Something is really screwed up.  

 

If the offense doesn't improve considerably over last season, something is wrong. If the defense falls apart, something is wrong.  

 

5-11 the Pegulas will be forced to think long and hard before letting McD have another season.  

[eball]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

I agree with the philosophy you express here. McBeane have been very clear that their intention is to build a long term winner and therefore they are not doing everything possible to win now.  And I can see how they're doing it.

 

However, of the Bills are worse than 6-10 this season, something is wrong.  McD has lost the locker room.  McD is a failure as an offensive head coach.  Something is really screwed up.  

 

If the offense doesn't improve considerably over last season, something is wrong. If the defense falls apart, something is wrong.  

 

5-11 the Pegulas will be forced to think long and hard before letting McD have another season.  

 

Yup.  Process or not, it's year three and the team has to start showing results on the field.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

I'm not sure what you consider a failure.  Obviously, you have much more tolerance for poor performance than I do, because  going 6-10 the season after a playoff appearance screams "FAIL!" to me.   IMO, McDermott has completely used up any and all of his free passes.  Because of league parity imposed by the salary cap, good coaching is essential.  Part of being a good NFL HC is hiring good assistants.  That's why certain HCs produce winners anywhere and everywhere they go and create "coaching trees" of former assistants who go on to become good HCs on their own.  McDermott's assistants on offense and special teams have been disasters.  That's what happens in almost any endeavor when you rely on nepotism to fill key positions.  Many of his  personnel decisions have been questionable at best ... Peterman and Jones from the 2017 draft are most notable.   McDermott puts a better product on the field -- ie, minimum 8 wins -- or he deserves to be unemployed for 2020.

 

As for Beane, at least he's not saddled with the 2017 draft but the only thing that he's done positive is go "all in" on a QB.  His fate will be determined by Josh Allen's success or failure, and at least he has tried to improve Allen's supporting cast this season which gives the kid at least a chance to succeed. 

 

This is a case of not being able to see the big picture.

1 minute ago, eball said:

 

Yup.  Process or not, it's year three and the team has to start showing results on the field.

 

I agree.  It needs to be the playoffs this year.  Offseason one...fix the defense.  Offseason 2, fix the offense. 

Year 3...needs to show tangible improvement.  If we are still "in the hunt" on the outside looking in in late November, I will be disappointed.  We need to be firmly in a playoff seat and controlling our own fate.

[eball]

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I agree.  It needs to be the playoffs this year.  Offseason one...fix the defense.  Offseason 2, fix the offense. 

Year 3...needs to show tangible improvement.  If we are still "in the hunt" on the outside looking in in late November, I will be disappointed.  We need to be firmly in a playoff seat and controlling our own fate.

 

I don't think it's "playoffs or bust" -- I think it's a better than .500 record, the elimination of "bad losses" like we've seen the past couple of years, and offensive statistics that aren't mired at the bottom of the league.

 

Those are my criteria, anyway.