"The Bills are winning this Draft" - Per Matt Miller

[WideRightRevenge]

6 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Unless they trade their 5th & 6th to move to 4th, Butler will be gone and everyone else left is just wr meh....Love our first 2 picks and Singletary will be intriguing. Dawson creek Knox landing was too expensive. 

 

I'm for trading some of the remaining picks (except for one 7th rounder to take a punter)... reality is we really don't have a lot of roster spots (assuming the top 4 picks stick) plus the FA signings ... so potentially these later picks will be cut/practice squad

6 hours ago, sven233 said:

My biggest issue with this pick is not the player.  He could turn out to be awesome.  My only concern is giving up 2 4th round picks to get him.  But, it looks like Beane is starting to feel like our roster is getting very close to where he wants it to be and that the chances of these lower round guys making the team is slim.  If that's the case, then this makes giving up the 2 4th rounders a bit easier to swallow.

Echo to my comments .. .totally agree sven

[Dr. K]

6 hours ago, sven233 said:

My biggest issue with this pick is not the player.  He could turn out to be awesome.  My only concern is giving up 2 4th round picks to get him.  But, it looks like Beane is starting to feel like our roster is getting very close to where he wants it to be and that the chances of these lower round guys making the team is slim.  If that's the case, then this makes giving up the 2 4th rounders a bit easier to swallow.

I hate it when people cast a trade like this in terms of "giving up two 4th round picks." Yes, they no longer have two picks in the 4th, but they got an additional pick in the 3rd. So they gave up ONE 4th round pick in order to move up the other 4th round pick to a third rounder. They lost ONE net pick, and turned the other 4th into a 3rd. By no accounting did they lose TWO picks.  

Edited April 27, 2019 by Dr. K

[Billsatlastin2018]

During the vast majority of desert years in this Millenium, I have been out front castigating and ridiculing so many of the WTF selections from OBD and the complete and total busts from prime First Round picks.

 

I do feel they have turned the corner!

 

Thought the first two picks were outstanding. Then came my WTF moment with the old RB chestnut. I always figure, today you can find RBs in the Sunday Night Beer League. But, it's interesting the way you think according to team. When the Patsies took Michel last year, a friend RAN to the windows to get a small wager on him for Rookie of the Year and a larger one on the Pats to win the SB. How did that work out?

 

Here, it would appear that the Bills grabbed BOTH picks ahead of other teams who wanted them- especially the Patsies! ??? An RB from Florida Atlantic? Who knows? 

 

Where I'm always concerned for the Bills is the WR talent available to any of our QBs this Millenium. Many are always looking for the tiny, speed burners from the SEC and the Florida Universities. No, no, no. The Bills don't play in a dome and their less than Top 10 QBs have difficulty in the back half of the Season, when the cold, rain, sleet, snow and especially wind, come into play. Get BIG men to help your rookie QB out! And so they did, with the intriguing Fort Knox at 6-4.

 

If I was Beane Boy, I would roll the die and as others have suggested, package that 5 & 6 to go after Butler or Harmon in Round 4. Unlike other years, both Free Agency and the Draft have filled many holes!

 

Great job OBD!

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, MJS said:

When you have 10 picks you use them to trade up and get better picks. That's what those 4th rounders were there for. And I hope the Bills use more of their lower picks to trade up a bit again. Having a bunch of 4th round and below guys on your team is not super helpful. Yes, you might get lucky with one of them, but generally speaking the higher a guy is drafted the better career he'll have. Generally.

 

 

No, it's not the only way to handle it. Plenty of teams take a ton of picks. Cincy had 11 last year, Denver had 10, Green Bay had 11, and I'm only up to the Gs, in one draft. That wasn't "what those 4th rounders were there for." They were there to be maximized. Could've been used, or traded for more picks, or whatever.

 

You don't have to get all that lucky to do well with a later pick. Milano was a 5th. Taron Johnson too. Fourths especially have a pretty reasonable record of producing contributors. The more picks the better, but if you have a better use for them, that's OK too. So far, this regime has been excellent at the draft, so I'm willing to believe them that this stands a decent chance of being a very good use of the picks.

[BillsFan17]

6 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

It's the overall grouping of talent. I don't see what the plan is. Considering that Gore and Shady will likely move on after this season Yeldon and Singletary aren't exactly complementary backs. That's not to say that things can't change.... But.... We don't exactly have a hammer. Yeldon is big but plays soft. It kind of feels like finding two guys to do what Shady does instead of getting a player that can be a reliable 3 down workhorse, or going with the "thunder and lightning" approach.

 

I don't hate the pick. I just don't see what their plan is moving forward.

The plan is to add talent, it's simple, you are choosing to muddle it.

[WideRightRevenge]

2 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

I'll give the draft a C. The linemen were safe, ok picks. The "skill" players are unknowns at best. It's a passable draft. I see his plan on offense is to proceed with a legion of average guys. Can't say it excites me.

 

Let me take a crack at what "C" stands for . .because it can't be the typical "A-F" grading scale

 

"C" could mean ... Calculated, Common Sense, Cunning, Clever, Cerebral, all leading to Championship ... GO BILLS!!!!

[Thurman#1]

13 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

I hate it whnen people cast a trade like this in terms of "giving up two 4th round picks." Yes, they, no longer have two picks in the 4th, but they got an additional pick in the 3rd. So they gave up ONE 4th round pick in order to move up the other 4th round pick to a third rounder. They lost ONE net pick, and turned the other 4th into a 3rd. By no accounting did they lose TWO picks.  

 

 

That's a problem with how it sounds, it doesn't sound so nice, maybe.

 

But it's absolutely correct.

 

They gave up two 4th round picks. And recieved a 3rd rounder in return. If they'd given up one 4th rounder, they'd still have one left.

 

Give up simply means to relinquish or part with. Which we did. It doesn't mean you don't get anything in return. Just means you said bye-bye to 'em. We gave up 112 and 131 and received 96 in return.

 

Put another way, they lost two picks. And gained one back in trade. Any accounting denying they lost two picks is more concerned with spin than correctness.

 

"They lost ONE net pick." They just lost it? Well, maybe someone will find it and returne it. And later, in a separate transaction, "They turned the other 4th into a 3rd"? With what, a magic wand? This always cracks me up, I always picture a circus plate spinner dashing from plate to plate. It wasn't two separate transactions, #112 for nothing, followed later by #131 for #96. They received one pick by giving up two.

Edited April 27, 2019 by Thurman#1

[wppete]

Completely agree with Miller. This guy is a steal in Round 3. Amazing pick.

[YoloinOhio]

35 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

No snark intended here, but how are those numbers calculated and what do they even mean

It’s based on their  overall draft board. They have a projected spot for each player going into the draft. For each pick they give a + or - calculation as to where they were picked vs where they were projected. The Bills high score represents extreme value for their picks

[fergie's ire]

43 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

It is not 2 less chances because they got a 3rd round pick for it.  So at most it is 1 less chance, but in dropping that 1 chance we increased the odds significantly by drafting a guy rated significantly higher.

 

The move up in front of NE also appeared to lead directly to them trading out of the 3rd - probably because we stole the TE they were targeting there. Another huge plus.

Not sure I trust your math.  For example, didn't it cost us 3 number 1's to draft Sammy Watkins?

 

[formerlyofCtown]

7 hours ago, Scorp83 said:

Even though I know in my heart this is a good draft... I'm left a tad disappointed that we haven't address WR yet... but man Adam Lefkoe, Matt Miller & Conner Rogers just gave our GM the highest praise I've ever seen in a longtime!

 

It's definitely a treat for every person on this board to watch this video! 

 

They even went so far to call other teams "Stupid" for allowing the Bills to do what they're doing ???

 

https://bleacherreport.com/post/buffalo-bills/6325b7d3-19fb-46ad-8781-17245cef0af2

 

Enjoy... & yea... let's discuss how everyone is feeling so far about the draft too... we don't have ANY 4th Rd picks, so we won't see any action until about 2pm tomorrow afternoon. 

I wonder if Beane made a better offer to the devil  than Belichik and now Josh Allen is taking the drops.

41 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

Not sure I trust your math.  For example, didn't it cost us 3 number 1's to draft Sammy Watkins?

 

2 -1s no wonder youre so upset about that trade.

Edited April 27, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[Billsatlastin2018]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I love this draft!! The Bills started off with the guy that they wanted. He is a perfect fit for what we are doing. They turned around and added, potentially, a Pro Bowl RT. From there, they got a guy that may be their number 1 back in a year. Singletary is a really, really good football player. Knox is a guy that’s as talented as any TE that I can remember the Bills having. He’s a super athlete that was misused like Oliver was. I think he’s the starter at TE. Overall I couldn’t be much happier with the way that these 1st 2 days went. I was hoping for Metcalf as I think he could be a number 1 but other than that no complaints. I’m hoping for Anthony Johnson today.

 

I’m very close to this. 2 Studs to start. Then, it was the WTF moment, with the Usual Millenium suspect RB. Upon reading up, I give it a ?, especially because other teams were gonna take him. On Fort Knox? Excellent choice. I want HUGE players for my apprentice QB, as my targets when the wind, rain, snow and sleet hit Buffalo. He is! Looking for another Butler sized WR today!

[gonzo1105]

For all the guys moaning and groaning for Hakeem Butler and why we didn’t take him at 74. If he is sooooo good, why is he still sitting there at pick 101 right now. That means he’s lasted 27 picks(almost a full round) after the Bills took Singletary. 

 

Heres why. He’s slow to get moving. It takes him a long time to get up to speed. He’s not a good route runner and will fail to gain separation in the NFL. He also has a history of drops and struggles against physical Corners who get into his chest plate. 

 

The problem is people watch his highlights and see a huge WR who has made some fantastic one handed catches and think the guy is unstoppable. He’s Kelvin Benjamin  

[Dr. K]

56 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That's a problem with how it sounds, it doesn't sound so nice, maybe.

 

But it's absolutely correct.

 

They gave up two 4th round picks. And recieved a 3rd rounder in return. If they'd given up one 4th rounder, they'd still have one left.

 

Give up simply means to relinquish or part with. Which we did. It doesn't mean you don't get anything in return. Just means you said bye-bye to 'em. We gave up 112 and 131 and received 96 in return.

 

Put another way, they lost two picks. And gained one back in trade. Any accounting denying they lost two picks is more concerned with spin than correctness.

 

"They lost ONE net pick." They just lost it? Well, maybe someone will find it and returne it. And later, in a separate transaction, "They turned the other 4th into a 3rd"? With what, a magic wand? This always cracks me up, I always picture a circus plate spinner dashing from plate to plate. It wasn't two separate transactions, #112 for nothing, followed later by #131 for #96. They received one pick by giving up two.

What you are saying is moronic. THEY GAVE UP ONE NET PICK. You are saying that if I paid somebody twenty dollars and got ten dollars back from somebody else, I am out twenty dollars. 

That's not spin. It's elementary math. What a fool. 

[Scorp83]

8 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

Forgive my ignorance, who is matt miller exactly? Obviously I see he covers the draft for BR, but BR is full of wannabes and know-nothings pretending to know stuff. Does he have a actual pedigree beyond BR? 

11 years ago....yea... now they've probably WAY MORE credible then Mel Kiper & his ESPN crew. They do some good work like NDT.com 

Edited April 27, 2019 by Scorp83
Typo

[scribo]

Gotta love the know-it-all arm-chair GMs. We have national media falling over themselves to praise the Bills for their draft picks and free agency acquisitions. Yet the posters here think their "work" with YouTube videos have them in better position to evaluate talent.

[Scorp83]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Matt Miller is one of the best draft guys in the business as has been for a number of years. His scouts notebook column each week during the college football season is a must read. 

 

I did love the line "Knox might not have a load of production but he played with a bad Quarterback in a team that had Metcalf, Brown and Lodge catching the ball.... this isn't Iowa where they just throw to the Tight End every play"

 

??? 

 

Hock jock sniffers take note.

Yo I can't stop laughing at this post! Nice! ?????????

[YoloinOhio]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Matt Miller is one of the best draft guys in the business as has been for a number of years. His scouts notebook column each week during the college football season is a must read. 

 

I did love the line "Knox might not have a load of production but he played with a bad Quarterback in a team that had Metcalf, Brown and Lodge catching the ball.... this isn't Iowa where they just throw to the Tight End every play"

 

??? 

 

Hock jock sniffers take note.

It’s so true. TEs are tough to evaluate and project  because so many college offenses do not utilize them in the passing game enough, nor do they develop them like other positions. Probably why so many are found in the mid rounds.

[scribo]

14 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

For all the guys moaning and groaning for Hakeem Butler and why we didn’t take him at 74. If he is sooooo good, why is he still sitting there at pick 101 right now. That means he’s lasted 27 picks(almost a full round) after the Bills took Singletary. 

 

Gonzo, don't you realize we have posters here who know better than every NFL team?

[100DollarBills]

I don’t want to rely on historically #3 WRs in Beasley and Brown. They may have good seasons, but I don’t want it to leave it to chance. Kind of upset we haven’t drafted a WR yet. If they pick up Hakeem or UB WR, all is forgiven.