2019 NFL Draft - Day 1 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

Good Morning Bills Fans!!! I don' think it is an secret that I felt pretty deflated when writing up my day 1 debrief a year ago. What a difference 12 months makes.... not only in the way I feel about that night but in the way I am feeling this morning. Round 1 could not have gone any better for Buffalo and from yesterday morning wondering whether I'd be happier at #9 with one of the "safe" lower ceiling guys (Jonah, Wilkins, Hock) or one of the high ceiling riskier guys (Sweat, Burns, DK) to actually landing the guy I wanted all along - there are actually posts from me back in September and October saying that Ed Oliver and Nick Bosa are can't miss and almost worth ending up with a top 2 pick for - I probably woke up the neighbours with my cheer when the Comish announced the pick. 

 

Right - onto the debrief!

 

The Bills Pick

Let's start with the fact that the Bills stood pat and took a guy with their original first round pick. This was only the second time sine 2012 that we have done that. I liked the pick the first time they did that too (Shaq Lawson in 2016) and that hasn't worked out exactly as planned. That said I didn't have a grade on Shaq anything like the one I had on Ed Oliver. I said when the rumours of a trade for #3 were out there that it was for Ed Oliver and while Brandon Beane didn't absolutely confirm that he certainly intimated that was the purpose behind any conversations they might or might not have had (though those conversations never got as serious as talking compensation). I was slightly tongue in cheek asking if Beane had fallen asleep as the Buccs went on the clock and their pick came in - but once it did I knew we had a real chance of Oliver sliding to #9. I admit I'd have lost my nerve at #8 and tried to flip a mid round pick to Detroit to swap spots - who knows if those conversations were had? - Because I was concerned not about the Lions themselves but about that putting Atlanta in striking range of a trade up and they had also been working the trade phones with Ed Oliver top of their mind. As for the player himself? Stud. It is common knowledge that the coaching at Houston in 2018 used him in an odd way playing (as McDermott put it) lateral to the line of scrimmage. But what that should do, if anything, is reduce the concerns anyone has about his ability to play the run. Houston thought he was so capable as a run defender they used him as a nose tackle and PFF responded by grading him elite in his run defense. But what makes Ed Oliver special is his interior pass rush. I am not going to say he will be Aaron Donald at the next level because that is a proven exceptional talent. However, he is the closest think to Aaron Donald to come out of college football since Donald himself came out of Pitt. This guy will take over football games. After one year of 2x Ed Oliver even Tom Brady's "nutritionist" may be advising him to retire. Well done Brandon Beane. You knocked this out of the park! 

 

My Mock

Mixed night for the mock here were the final scores: 

 

- Only 21 of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly (My lowest for a long time: 24 in 2018; 26 in 2017 and 23 in 2016);

- 5 exact matches - I matched the first three players (the easy bit) and then the other two Quarterbacks - Jones and Haskins. There was a further two matches Jonah to Cincy and our very own Ed Oliver that I nailed in v1.0 and then changed for the final version. Frustrating. Still 5 was my best score since 2016.

- 6 further matches where I got the position right but the player wrong.

 

I still have some exact matches in my round 1 mock that I think could still happen with teams that have traded back into the top of the 2nd round.... I'm thinking Rock Ya-Sin to Indianapolis in particular.

 

Player I was high on....

So there were 3 or 4 guys that I was higher on than the consensus. I knew on Jaylon Ferguson he was always touch and go to be selected in round 1 despite me having a first round grade on him. If he is there at pick #40 the Bills should sprint to the podium. Ed Oliver rushing inside and Ferguson from off the edge? Wow that DLine would be downright nasty. The other three fitted a pattern: guys whose tape I thought was really solid but who just didn't seem like sexy picks to the majority as the draft approached. Greedy Williams and Deionte Thompson are both sitting out there but the guy who is not is Clelin Ferrell. People are piling on the Raiders for that pick and while it is true that it came a bit early with Oliver, Devin White and Josh Allen still on the board, Ferrell was a top 10 player in my mind. When I posted by my draft stuff thread last weekend he was the player on my board whose evaluation most surprised Bandit. He is a really good football player. He destroyed Jonah Williams in the Nation Championship game. He is a much better pick than the Raiders are getting credit for. A textbook Mike Mayock guy. 

 

Player I was down on....

So I said it would be a slow night for offensive guys coming off the board. The defense won the night 19-13 which feels about right. Among my being down on the offensive talent in this draft was my view that DK Metcalf is not a true first round talent and was not a lock to go off the board on the draft's first night. That prediction proved true as the slid and slid and slid. I expect he will come off the board early in the 2nd round and that is about where I would be happy to consider taking him. But a guy with injury concerns, a lack of big college production, who is a physical freak but struggles with short area quickness and demonstrated inconsistent effort in his get off and his competing for the ball in the air on tape does not a high first rounder make. Other than DK where my view was pretty well known another guy that Bandit and I had disagreed over was Rock Ya-Sin the corner out of Temple. While I see the potential there I just thought he was too raw to justify a first rounder. He struggles getting his head around and I think at the moment he is a PI flag waiting to happen. I expected the NFL to disagree with me and to strike out for the high ceiling. While I am surprised Greedy Williams and Byron Murphy still wait I feel slightly vindicated by the fact Ya-Sin remains on the board (my grade on him is actually a low second).

 

Biggest shock of the night

An actual real human general manager who has two eyes and access to film thought Daniel Jones was worth the 6th pick of the NFL Draft. Wow. I just can't actually put into words how I wrong I think Dave Gettleman is. 

 

Worst pick

Let's leave Daniel Jones alone in this section........ okay let's not. He was the player I had to reach the furthest down my board to mark off - I had a 3rd/4th borderline grade. The next lowest I had to go to mark a player off (bottom of the 3rd round) was LJ Collier who the Seahawks (a team with history of making odd first round selections) spent the #29 pick on. Collier isn't hopeless. He is a good, physical, edge setting defensive end. But he lacks speed and athleticism and to me provides limited pass rush potential. In 2017 TCU actually used him inside as a sort of 3 technique to provide interior pass rush. I suppose Seattle might be seeing him as the replacement for Michael Bennett in that sort of role. He is a better fit there than trying to play end for my money.... but surely he would have lasted a fair few picks into day 2? I had EIGHT edge rushers graded above Collier who remain on the board. Honourable mention to the Packers selection of Darnell Savage who I also had a mid third on. At least Seattle traded back. The Packers traded UP to take Savage as the first safety off the board. He was my 7th ranked player at the position. 

 

What's left?

I have already touched on the slides for the corners... my BPA list at this stage is pretty defensive back heavy. I think that maybe helps the Bills strategy going into day 2, but let's see. Here is my current top 10:

 

1. Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

2. Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama

3. Jawaan Taylor*, OT, Florida - possible injury concern

4. Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

5. Jaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana Techn

6. Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma

7. Chauncy Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida

8. AJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss

9. JoeJuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt

10. Jachai Polite*, DE, Florida - possible character concern

 

 

Right, I am off for breakfast, coffee, then the gym, home, dinner, sleep, then time for day 2! ENJOY FOLKS!

[Thurman#1]

You may not be much happier than I am.

 

Loved it!!!!!!!

 

Great post. Thanks. Is Ferguson really that good? Hadn't looked too far beyond the first. I'll root for that, though I also wouldn't mind Risner, Cody Ford or a few others.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Thurman#1

[TAinLack.]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Good Morning Bills Fans!!! I don' think it is an secret that I felt pretty deflated when writing up my day 1 debrief a year ago. What a difference 12 months makes.... not only in the way I feel about that night but in the way I am feeling this morning. Round 1 could not have gone any better for Buffalo and from yesterday morning wondering whether I'd be happier at #9 with one of the "safe" lower ceiling guys (Jonah, Wilkins, Hock) or one of the high ceiling riskier guys (Sweat, Burns, DK) to actually landing the guy I wanted all along - there are actually posts from me back in September and October saying that Ed Oliver and Nick Bosa are can't miss and almost worth ending up with a top 2 pick for - I probably woke up the neighbours with my cheer when the Comish announced the pick. 

 

Right - onto the debrief!

 

The Bills Pick

Let's start with the fact that the Bills stood pat and took a guy with their original first round pick. This was only the second time sine 2012 that we have done that. I liked the pick the first time they did that too (Shaq Lawson in 2016) and that hasn't worked out exactly as planned. That said I didn't have a grade on Shaq anything like the one I had on Ed Oliver. I said when the rumours of a trade for #3 were out there that it was for Ed Oliver and while Brandon Beane didn't absolutely confirm that he certainly intimated that was the purpose behind any conversations they might or might not have had (though those conversations never got as serious as talking compensation). I was slightly tongue in cheek asking if Beane had fallen asleep as the Buccs went on the clock and their pick came in - but once it did I knew we had a real chance of Oliver sliding to #9. I admit I'd have lost my nerve at #8 and tried to flip a mid round pick to Detroit to swap spots - who knows if those conversations were had? - Because I was concerned not about the Lions themselves but about that putting Atlanta in striking range of a trade up and they had also been working the trade phones with Ed Oliver top of their mind. As for the player himself? Stud. It is common knowledge that the coaching at Houston in 2018 used him in an odd way playing (as McDermott put it) lateral to the line of scrimmage. But what that should do, if anything, is reduce the concerns anyone has about his ability to play the run. Houston thought he was so capable as a run defender they used him as a nose tackle and PFF responded by grading him elite in his run defense. But what makes Ed Oliver special is his interior pass rush. I am not going to say he will be Aaron Donald at the next level because that is a proven exceptional talent. However, he is the closest think to Aaron Donald to come out of college football since Donald himself came out of Pitt. This guy will take over football games. After one year of 2x Ed Oliver even Tom Brady's "nutritionist" may be advising him to retire. Well done Brandon Beane. You knocked this out of the park! 

 

My Mock

Mixed night for the mock here were the final scores: 

 

- Only 21 of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly (My lowest for a long time: 24 in 2018; 26 in 2017 and 23 in 2016);

- 5 exact matches - I matched the first three players (the easy bit) and then the other two Quarterbacks - Jones and Haskins. There was a further two matches Jonah to Cincy and our very own Ed Oliver that I nailed in v1.0 and then changed for the final version. Frustrating. Still 5 was my best score since 2016.

- 6 further matches where I got the position right but the player wrong.

 

I still have some exact matches in my round 1 mock that I think could still happen with teams that have traded back into the top of the 2nd round.... I'm thinking Rock Ya-Sin to Indianapolis in particular.

 

Player I was high on....

So there were 3 or 4 guys that I was higher on than the consensus. I knew on Jaylon Ferguson he was always touch and go to be selected in round 1 despite me having a first round grade on him. If he is there at pick #40 the Bills should sprint to the podium. Ed Oliver rushing inside and Ferguson from off the edge? Wow that DLine would be downright nasty. The other three fitted a pattern: guys whose tape I thought was really solid but who just didn't seem like sexy picks to the majority as the draft approached. Greedy Williams and Deionte Thompson are both sitting out there but the guy who is not is Clelin Ferrell. People are piling on the Raiders for that pick and while it is true that it came a bit early with Oliver, Devin White and Josh Allen still on the board, Ferrell was a top 10 player in my mind. When I posted by my draft stuff thread last weekend he was the player on my board whose evaluation most surprised Bandit. He is a really good football player. He destroyed Jonah Williams in the Nation Championship game. He is a much better pick than the Raiders are getting credit for. A textbook Mike Mayock guy. 

 

Player I was down on....

So I said it would be a slow night for offensive guys coming off the board. The defense won the night 19-13 which feels about right. Among my being down on the offensive talent in this draft was my view that DK Metcalf is not a true first round talent and was not a lock to go off the board on the draft's first night. That prediction proved true as the slid and slid and slid. I expect he will come off the board early in the 2nd round and that is about where I would be happy to consider taking him. But a guy with injury concerns, a lack of big college production, who is a physical freak but struggles with short area quickness and demonstrated inconsistent effort in his get off and his competing for the ball in the air on tape does not a high first rounder make. Other than DK where my view was pretty well known another guy that Bandit and I had disagreed over was Rock Ya-Sin the corner out of Temple. While I see the potential there I just thought he was too raw to justify a first rounder. He struggles getting his head around and I think at the moment he is a PI flag waiting to happen. I expected the NFL to disagree with me and to strike out for the high ceiling. While I am surprised Greedy Williams and Byron Murphy still wait I feel slightly vindicated by the fact Ya-Sin remains on the board (my grade on him is actually a low second).

 

Biggest shock of the night

An actual real human general manager who has two eyes and access to film thought Daniel Jones was worth the 6th pick of the NFL Draft. Wow. I just can't actually put into words how I wrong I think Dave Gettleman is. 

 

Worst pick

Let's leave Daniel Jones alone in this section........ okay let's not. He was the player I had to reach the furthest down my board to mark off - I had a 3rd/4th borderline grade. The next lowest I had to go to mark a player off (bottom of the 3rd round) was LJ Collier who the Seahawks (a team with history of making odd first round selections) spent the #29 pick on. Collier isn't hopeless. He is a good, physical, edge setting defensive end. But he lacks speed and athleticism and to me provides limited pass rush potential. In 2017 TCU actually used him inside as a sort of 3 technique to provide interior pass rush. I suppose Seattle might be seeing him as the replacement for Michael Bennett in that sort of role. He is a better fit there than trying to play end for my money.... but surely he would have lasted a fair few picks into day 2? I had EIGHT edge rushers graded above Collier who remain on the board. Honourable mention to the Packers selection of Darnell Savage who I also had a mid third on. At least Seattle traded back. The Packers traded UP to take Savage as the first safety off the board. He was my 7th ranked player at the position. 

 

What's left?

I have already touched on the slides for the corners... my BPA list at this stage is pretty defensive back heavy. I think that maybe helps the Bills strategy going into day 2, but let's see. Here is my current top 10:

 

1. Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

2. Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama

3. Jawaan Taylor*, OT, Florida - possible injury concern

4. Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

5. Jaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana Techn

6. Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma

7. Chauncy Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida

8. AJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss

9. JoeJuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt

10. Jachai Polite*, DE, Florida - possible character concern

 

 

Right, I am off for breakfast, coffee, then the gym, home, dinner, sleep, then time for day 2! ENJOY FOLKS!

Nice break down, GunnerBill

Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas St.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, TAinLA said:

Nice break down, GunnerBill

Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas St.

 

Risner is lurking just below my top 10 BPA. He would certainly come into consideration for the Bills at #40. 

[SoCal Deek]

Thanks Gunner

I know your post is Bills centric but it’s way better than most of the dribble I read from actual ‘experts’....very informative!

[Inigo Montoya]

My son and I were standing about a hundred yards from the stage in the rain watching the top of round one unfold.  When the Raiders took Ferrell we were stoked.  When the Giants took Jones we were high fiving.  That meant there were only two picks left before the Bills selected and Josh Allen, T.J. Hockenson, and Ed Oliver were all still on the board so we knew we were going to end up with one of them. We would be ecstatic with any of them.  It was just a matter to see which of the three was left at 9.

 

We both wanted Hock but can not complain about snagging Oliver at 9, which is absolute highway robbery.  We were hoping Beane would trade back into the first and snag Fant and we both thought that Seattle at 21 was the most likely spot to do it, but then the Broncos traded up at 20 and snagged Fant.  Seattle did end up trading back and out of 21 with the Eagles.  I think if Fant would have been there at 21, Beane might have made a play for him with Seattle.  

 

All in all, the first round of the draft was a great experience, the crowd was fun, ended up standing in front of a guy wearing a Titans jersey who grew up in Tonawanda like I did.  Can't wait to see what happens today.  I think it almost a certainty that we walk out of rounds 2 and 3 with more than two picks.  Can't wait to see who they are.  There are still some solid WRs on the board and Irv Smith.  I think Allen still needs some more weapons, I think they will find him at least one today.

 

Hoping for a little bit more Beane Magic today!

 

Edited April 26, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[BuffaloHokie13]

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

My Mock

Mixed night for the mock here were the final scores: 

 

- Only 21 of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly (My lowest for a long time: 24 in 2018; 26 in 2017 and 23 in 2016);

- 5 exact matches - I matched the first three players (the easy bit) and then the other two Quarterbacks - Jones and Haskins. There was a further two matches Jonah to Cincy and our very own Ed Oliver that I nailed in v1.0 and then changed for the final version. Frustrating. Still 5 was my best score since 2016.

- 6 further matches where I got the position right but the player wrong.

 

I still have some exact matches in my round 1 mock that I think could still happen with teams that have traded back into the top of the 2nd round.... I'm thinking Rock Ya-Sin to Indianapolis in particular.

I whiffed on the first 3, so I ended up with 4 matches this year. Hock-Lions, Brown-Ravens, Jacobs-Raiders, and Harry-Pats*. I couldn't bring myself to let Oliver slide in a mock and get my hopes up. Quite pleased with the result and excited for tonight. I think they're going to get DK for Josh.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I whiffed on the first 3, so I ended up with 4 matches this year. Hock-Lions, Brown-Ravens, Jacobs-Raiders, and Harry-Pats*. I couldn't bring myself to let Oliver slide in a mock and get my hopes up. Quite pleased with the result and excited for tonight. I think they're going to get DK for Josh.

 

As anti as I was to taking DK at #9 I would be happy to see either he or his Ole Miss buddy AJ Brown selected at #40. 

[MrEpsYtown]

To me 1 of Murphy, Ferguson, or Risner are the most obvious adds. Either that or one of the receivers. I'm excited about teh amount of talent...now don't go off the board and draft Torrell Troup. 

[aristocrat]

I’m a little all over the place here in the second. I’m thinking o line but I’m tempted for a cb. No fly zone. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

As anti as I was to taking DK at #9 I would be happy to see either he or his Ole Miss buddy AJ Brown selected at #40. 

I'm not sure it could've played out much better for us. We pick 8th tonight. I know you listed your top 10 remaining, but there are much more than 8 good fits for us on the board.

 

WR: DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Parris Campbell

OL: Jawaan Taylor, Cody Ford, Dalton Risner

CB: Greedy Williams, Byron Murphy, Rock Ya-Sin, JoeJuan Williams, Julian Love, Justin Layne

S: Nasir Adderley, Taylor Rapp, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson

EDGE: Jaylon Ferguson, Oshane Ximines

TE: Irv Smith

 

Edited April 26, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13

[billsfan1959]

Great breakdown, Gunner, as always. I am elated with Oliver at 9. If Metcalf is available at 40, then I would take him simply for the potential and I do believe his skill set is a great match for Allen. The only other remaining receiver I like that has the skill set and potential to match up well with Allen's strengths is Miles Boykin, whom they could probably get in the third. If Metcalf is not there at 40 than I would not be upset with whatever top DE (Not as high on Ferguson as you in the 2nd) or G (I like Ford) they have on their board.

[Chuck Wagon]

The idea of drafting Greedy and putting Tre in his ear all offseason is really really tempting.

[MrEpsYtown]

 

 

 

Edited April 26, 2019 by MrEpsYtown

[WhoTom]

I was doing a crossword puzzle this morning and this came up:

 

 

 

 

Edited April 26, 2019 by WhoTom

[CaptnCoke11]

Byron Murphy would be great but i think he’s going to come off real fast 

[buffaloboyinATL]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

What's left?

I have already touched on the slides for the corners... my BPA list at this stage is pretty defensive back heavy. I think that maybe helps the Bills strategy going into day 2, but let's see. Here is my current top 10:

 

1. Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

2. Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama

3. Jawaan Taylor*, OT, Florida - possible injury concern

4. Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

5. Jaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana Techn

6. Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma

7. Chauncy Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida

8. AJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss

9. JoeJuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt

10. Jachai Polite*, DE, Florida - possible character concern

 

 

 

Guys I'd like in bold above.  I will add Irv Smith, DK Metcalf, Dalton Risner and Hakeem Butler as well.  Great write up, Go Bills!! We are going to get a good player in round 2.

Edited April 26, 2019 by buffaloboyinATL

[LB3]

You didn't like Jones at 6?

 

You've got company.

https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=582384&thread_page=1

[Kirby Jackson]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

As anti as I was to taking DK at #9 I would be happy to see either he or his Ole Miss buddy AJ Brown selected at #40. 

Great stuff as always Gunner!!

 

I am hoping for DK at this point. I’ve thought all along that the Bills needed a number 1. That’s part of the reason I was okay with him at 9 (obviously Oliver was my top choice but didn’t think he’d make it). I think that he is either a number 1 or he stinks. That dice roll is well worth it at 40. If he is that number 1 you walk out of this draft with 2 pro bowl players at positions of need. Yes please

Edited April 26, 2019 by Kirby Jackson

[billsfan1959]

28 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

My son and I were standing about a hundred yards from the stage in the rain watching the top of round one unfold.  When the Raiders took Ferrell we were stoked.  When the Giants took Jones we were high fiving.  That meant there were three picks left before the Bills selected and Josh Allen, T.J. Hockenson, and Ed Oliver were all still on the board so we knew we were going to end up with one of them. We would be ecstatic with any of them.  It was just a matter to see which of the three was left at 9.

 

We both wanted Hock but can not complain about snagging Oliver at 9, which is absolute highway robbery.  We were hoping Beane would trade back into the first and snag Fant and we both thought that Seattle at 21 was the most likely spot to do it, but then the Broncos traded up at 20 and snagged Fant.  Seattle did end up trading back and out of 21 with the Eagles.  I think if Fant would have been there at 21, Beane might have made a play for him with Seattle.  

 

All in all, the first round of the draft was a great experience, the crowd was fun, ended up standing in front of a guy wearing a Titans jersey who grew up in Tonawanda like I did.  Can't wait to see what happens today.  I think it almost a certainty that we walk out of rounds 2 and 3 with more than two picks.  Can't wait to see who they are.  There are still some solid WRs on the board and Irv Smith.  I think Allen still needs some more weapons, I think they will find him at least one today.

 

Hoping for a little bit more Beane Magic today!

Sorry that it rained; however, glad you and your son had a great time. The whole environment looked incredible on TV - can only imagine what it was like in person. I hope you are right and we end up with an extra 2nd or 3rd.