Rocket94 Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 (edited) Devin White will be gone at 9...maybe Devin Bush? Ferrell or Zach Allen later on? The way things seem to be going, Bills will have to trade up for a blue chip defensive player. Dexter Lawrence? Edited April 25, 2019 by Rocket94
Boatdrinks Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 4 hours ago, ganesh said: Good teams have the draft come to them. The Bills need to stock with Good players...they need everyone of their draft pick. Fwiw, this Bills FO and HC have shown a willingness to move around the board for specific players, rather than let the draft come to them. I’d expect to see more of the same in today’s draft. 1
IgotBILLStopay Posted April 25, 2019 Author Posted April 25, 2019 3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said: No trade up in the first. Pick at #9 or even move down a few slots if there are a surplus of players that we figure are first tier. (e.g. if there 4 such players, we can move down 3 slots and still get one). We can go OT and then DT, or DT and then OL If Devin White is there, we take him in the first and than a 3 technique DT in the second. That is my plan. Devin White is good - but no way do we bneed a MLB with Edmunds on board. Ha! Redskins and Falcons are the teams I factored in above!! Schefter reported Steelers might also want to move up - but will have to pay up a lot to move into the top 10.
NewEra Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 18 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said: Clearly any number of scenarios can play out by the time we get to 9. I wanted to put all the info (needs, rumors, contacts etc.) about each of the top 8 picks that is available out there and see what that means for the Bills picks. Some of the info is already on this forum spread across different threads but some of it is new and, at least to me, it makes sense processing this in a holistic fashion. Pick 1: Cards Kyler Murray Post Free Agency Team Needs: QB?, DT, WR, S Klingsbury has been in love with Kyler Murray for a long time and is on record that he would take him #1. So, it is a no-brainer that Kyler Murray has been consistently mocked to the Cards over the past month. However, not making any overt moves regarding Rosen appears to have lessened the odds in favor of Murray to the Cards. I suspect this silence (reminiscent of Dorsey last year with the Mayfield pick) is primarily to see if they could move lower down and still get Murray while picking up draft assets. However, given their interest in Murray has been well chronicled, at this point the bigger surprise will be if they do not pick Murray. Also, if they really do want Murray, given the news that the #3 pick is for sale by the Jets, they cannot really move below 2 to guarantee Murray. If they do not pick Murray, the Raiders are the only team needing a QB with enough assets this year to move up and get Murray. In other words, even if the Cards do not want Murray and the Raiders want him, Murray will go #1 after a trade with the Raiders. Pick 2: 49ers Nick Bosa Post Free Agency Team Needs: S, C, DE, P 49ers have been linked to only 2 players throughout this entire pre-draft period: Bosa and Q. Williams. 49ers play a 4-3 defense and both are natural fits on its DL. However, DeForest Buckner has been a stud at RDT and Arik Armstead (former first round pick) had his best year in 2018 after missing significant time in 2016 and 2017 due to injuries. They did pick up Dee Ford at RDE in Free Agency. However, Solomon Thomas has been a big let-down despite being the third overall pick in 2017. This makes me think that DE is a bigger need for them and they are probably going with Bosa. I must add that Q. Williams can probably play the 5-tech DE as good as anybody coming out – so there is still a chance the 49ers select him over Bosa.Also, they too have been mentioned as potential trade targets for teams wanting to move up – but I suspect the cost involved for a non-top 5 team to move up will be very high. Pick 3: Jets Josh Allen Post Free Agency Team Needs: C, DE, T, CB Jets pick has been widely rumored to be for sale. If Kyler Murray is available, all bets are off and Jets might make out like bandits. But I do not consider that very likely. There are some rumblings that Washington and NYG want to trade up to get Daniel Jones (or Haskins) here, but I suspect the cost for the latter might be too high and the critical position is probably #5 (the pick before the Giants). Jets already have a nice 3-tech DT in Leonard Williams. After their past failures with two pass-rushing DTS (Sheldon Richardson and L. Williams), they should be wary of doing the same by pairing Q. Williams with L. Williams. That said, there have been some rumblings about Gregg Williams (their DC) being infatuated with Ed Oliver. However, given their needs at Edge and given there is a stud available here in Josh Allen who can play the Edge in both a 4-3 and a 3-4, I suspect they go with him here. If they choose to go DT, there appears to be a better chance of Oliver here rather than Q. Williams. Pick 4: Raiders Devin White / Quinnen Williams Post Free Agency Team Needs: DE, LB, CB, RB, TE If Bosa or Allen were available here, Mayock will likely just pounce on him. They have Hurst and Hall at DT. And these two were more than adequate last year. Most mocks the past month had Q. Williams going here although recently, there have been some rumblings of a surprise pick here. I think this is where the real draft intrigue starts. Mayock is a rookie GM and Gruden has never been shy about going against conventional thinking. One possible surprise pick is Devin White. They have a need at LB, White is the Butkus award winner and this year the dropoff at LB after the top 2 is significant unlike at DT and DE. Rapoport, Mcshay, Gehlken and Breer have all changed their Raiders pick from Q. Williams to D. White. The two other surprise picks are a QB and a DE. At the Senior Bowl, Gruden coached both Drew Lock and Daniel Jones and reportedly fell in love with one of them depending on which report we would like to believe. He also coached against Montez Sweat. Given how dominant Montez Sweat was there and how he destroyed the combine, I think there is also a small chance of Sweat going here given the Raiders acute needs at Edge. Pick 5 Bucs Traded to WAS. WAS picks Dwayne Haskins Pick 5 If No Trade Devin White Bucs Post Free Agency Team Needs: LB, T, CB, S, RB, K Redskins Post Free Agency Team Needs: QB enough said Bucs have hired Todd Bowles and will move to 3-4 defense for sure. They have Vita Vea at NT and he performed at a reasonably high level after a slow start before his injury. Also he is probably a better fit at 3-4 than Q. Williams or Ed Oliver. Arians mentioned yesterday that there are 6 generational talents in this year’s draft – I am going to assume 5 of them are Q. Williams, Ed Oliver, Bosa, Josh Allen and Devin White. The 6th one is a mystery, but I suspect it to be Montez Sweat. Montez Sweat destroyed the combine and the Senior Bowl. Also Tampa Bay has inside information on Montez Sweat (TB’s strength and conditioning coaches all moved there this year from Mississippi State and know the ins and outs of Sweat’s medical issues). I think the recent news (misinfo?) regarding Sweat’s heart plays into their hands perfectly. Given the high probability that teams are going to shy away from Sweat and given the inside info they have (like the Cowboys had with Jaylon Smith 2 years ago), I think they are willing to trade with Washington and roll the dice on Sweat being available at #14. There are differing reports out there about the Redskins liking Daniel Jones or Dwayne Haskins. Both visited them just last week. There are more murmurs regarding Haskins than Jones – so I am going with that. Pick 6: Giants Quinnen Williams / Devin White / Ed Oliver / Daniel Jones Post Free Agency Team Needs: QB, T, DT, LB, DE, WR Giants have holes everywhere. Gettleman has never traded down in his life. He is on record just last week as saying one should not reach for a QB and that a team needs a defensive leader. That makes me think he is going Defense first. I suspect it will be Q. Williams if he is still there and if not, it will be Devin White to get a Keuchly type defensive leader. If Devin White is also gone, then he might go Ed Oliver here. There is also a small chance that given two QBs are already gone and several QB hungry teams come before #17, he might go Daniel Jones here. Pick 7: If no trade Jags Jawaan Taylor / Jonah Williams / Cody Ford If trade, Jags trade pick to Falcons or Bills who take Ed Oliver or Quinnen Williams here Post Free Agency Team Needs: Jags OL, WR, RB, CB Post Free Agency Team Needs: Falcons DT, DE, CB, K Post Free Agency Team Needs: Bills DT, OL, DE, TE Jags have an excellent DL. But their OL is in shambles. They need serious upgrades there to protect their investment in Foles (who is a pure pocket passer). They have been linked to Jawaan Taylor completely and save a trade will probably go OL here even if Quinnen Williams were available here. Given the three nice options they have on the OL, I suspect they are also a good candidate for Falcons or the Bills to trade up here and take a DT. Pick 8: Lions Pick Devin White / Devin Bush / TJ Hockenson Post Free Agency Team Needs: LB, TE, WR, QB (long term) Matt Patricia adopts a multiple defense from a base 3-4 package (similar to what Rex used to run for us). The Lions defnse switched from a 4-3 last year – that 4-3 had enjoyed quite some success with Ansah, Suh etc. But last year they started horribly with a blowout loss to the Jets. But the mid-season pick up of Damon Harrison completely changed their Defense. Damon Harrison is the archetypal 3-4 NT and there is NO WAY the Lions pick a DT here (several of the national mocksters are mocking Oliver to them but I do not think that will happen). Patricia knows that the weak link last year was the LB corps. Given the steep drop off in LB talent and their acute need, I do not think they will agree to a trade and will likely go LB here. Devin Bush was neck and neck with Devin White at the combine and Mel Kiper laso has put him in as a 10th overall prospect. Besides Defense, the Lions have also been linked to Hockenson and Fant at the TE spot. Being from NE, he understands the value of a Gronk – so there is a good chance Lions go Hock here. Where does that leave us? Our needs are DT, OL, DE and TE (I do not think WR is such an acute need after spending all those dollars in FA). At DT, it appears more and more likely that Ed Oliver is going to be there. The only way he will not be there is if only one QB is taken in the top 8 AND the Falcons are willing to trade up to take Oliver. In such a case, Bills can still have the inside track to trade with the Jags since they have the higher pick and can pretty much guarantee Jags will have their pick of Olinemen. There is also an outised chance of Q. Williams being available. The draft order is set in such a way that right now the only teams picking ahead of us that really need Q. Williams are the Giants at #6. Even the Raiders are not badly off at DT. If the Giants go QB at #6 (that makes 3 QBs taken in the top 6), then Q. Williams can drop to 7 and chances are the Bills or the Falcons will grab him there. Then the Bills have the pleasant option of even fielding trade down offers. I am convinced Bills will likely trade down only if a QB run happens. There is a small chance Bills trade down with the Falcons – but given our needs are similar, I doubt it. In case only one QB is taken in the top 8 (Q. Williams is gone) AND the Falcons trade up to take Oliver, then the Bills options at #9 will likely be TJ Hockenson, Jawaan Taylor Cody Ford or Jonah Williams. I doubt if the Bills will really trade down since only one QB had gone in the top 8 – so trade up demand will be weak. Bottomline: I estimate our #9 pick will lead to the following possibilities (with chances in parentheses): Ed Oliver (trade up or at #9) 60% Quinnen Williams (trade up) 10% Taylor / Ford / Williams 10% Trade Down 10% TJ Hockenson 5% Others (Montez Sweat / Rashan Gary / Burns / Wilkins) 5% It’s appears more and more likely that oliver WILL be there at 9? Is that what you said? It’s the opposite for sure
billsredneck1 Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 4 hours ago, Rocket94 said: Devin White will be gone at 9...maybe Devin Bush? Ferrell or Zach Allen later on? The way things seem to be going, Bills will have to trade up for a blue chip defensive player. Dexter Lawrence? i hope they get one good dt and at least one good edge...prefer two, but at least a pair that compliment each other. sweat/lawrence?...wilkins/ ferguson? ...tillery/ximines? idk...what i do know is that those two spots need to be filled/upgraded or we're heading for a one legged ass kicking contest like we've seen since 1994....so billsy? i'm hoping those days are long gone.
IgotBILLStopay Posted April 25, 2019 Author Posted April 25, 2019 50 minutes ago, NewEra said: It’s appears more and more likely that oliver WILL be there at 9? Is that what you said? It’s the opposite for sure It only takes one team to take him in the top 8 for him not to be there. That said, if Kyler Murray goes #1 and one other team - Giants or Redskins - take a QB, barring another team trading up and willing to pay more than the Bills, Ed Oliver will be there. I estimate the probability of (Kyler Murray not going at 1 AND less than two QBs in the top 8 AND a team like Falcons beating our trade up offer) at less than 50%.
NewEra Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 I’ll bet you whatever you want that Oliver isn’t there at 9
Rocket94 Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said: i hope they get one good dt and at least one good edge...prefer two, but at least a pair that compliment each other. sweat/lawrence?...wilkins/ ferguson? ...tillery/ximines? idk...what i do know is that those two spots need to be filled/upgraded or we're heading for a one legged ass kicking contest like we've seen since 1994....so billsy? i'm hoping those days are long gone. As much as I want the Bills to have a good offense and support system for Allen, I feel that the defense needs a few upgrades...some of the players there now, nothing against those guys, but they are not getting the job done. We need a blue chip player at DT, a good edge and a replacement for Lorax 1
IgotBILLStopay Posted April 25, 2019 Author Posted April 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, NewEra said: I’ll bet you whatever you want that Oliver isn’t there at 9 We still might get him at 7:) If Oliver is not there at 9 and the Bills have not traded up, I expect the Bills to trade down - maybe Steelers move up for Devin Bush.
NewEra Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 Just now, IgotBILLStopay said: We still might get him at 7:) If Oliver is not there at 9 and the Bills have not traded up, I expect the Bills to trade down - maybe Steelers move up for Devin Bush. The only way we get Oliver imo, is to the trade up. I expect him gone by pick 6, but like you said, we have to hope 2 teams are dumb enough to draft a QB top 6 In this draft
BuffaloRebound Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 If Sweat’s heart problem is now cleared, I think Bills would be happy to take him at 9 if he lasts that long. Oliver, Sweat or the top OT at pick 9 unless somebody pays up for pick 9. 1
Rocket94 Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, NewEra said: The only way we get Oliver imo, is to the trade up. I expect him gone by pick 6, but like you said, we have to hope 2 teams are dumb enough to draft a QB top 6 In this draft Yes...Oliver no longer a lock at 9...perhaps never was to begin with. Now that we have Josh Allen, and some of the best players should be gone by 9, we are kind of left guessing. The draft never turns out as predicted.
IgotBILLStopay Posted April 25, 2019 Author Posted April 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said: If Sweat’s heart problem is now cleared, I think Bills would be happy to take him at 9 if he lasts that long. Oliver, Sweat or the top OT at pick 9 unless somebody pays up for pick 9. I think TB is going to trade down and take him if his heart trouble is no biggie. They have inside info.
IgotBILLStopay Posted April 25, 2019 Author Posted April 25, 2019 Vegas over/under for Ed Oliver is 7.5. This means Vegas expects him to last till #7 or#8.
Rocket94 Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: I think TB is going to trade down and take him if his heart trouble is no biggie. They have inside info. TB seems to be enamored with the two Devins or Josh Allen.
IgotBILLStopay Posted April 25, 2019 Author Posted April 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, Rocket94 said: TB seems to be enamored with the two Devins or Josh Allen. Yes you are right. I predicted Devin White if they do not trade down. If they trade down with the Redskins, I dont think the Devins of Allen will be available at #14.
Rocket94 Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: Yes you are right. I predicted Devin White if they do not trade down. If they trade down with the Redskins, I dont think the Devins of Allen will be available at #14. No...no way White falls. Despite his talent, Bush was considered by some as a mid 1st pick. As you know, the two Devin's are the best LB's in the draft...no one else even close. I would not mind having one of them...doubt it though.
IgotBILLStopay Posted April 25, 2019 Author Posted April 25, 2019 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Rocket94 said: No...no way White falls. Despite his talent, Bush was considered by some as a mid 1st pick. As you know, the two Devin's are the best LB's in the draft...no one else even close. I would not mind having one of them...doubt it though. I am not saying Devin White will fall. I predicted Devin White to TB not Bills. I think you and I are saying the same thing except I don’t want a MLB in Round 1. In fact there is a good chance both Devins are gone by 8 since the LB talent drop off after that is huge. Pls see my mock in the OP. Edited April 25, 2019 by IgotBILLStopay
Rocket94 Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 Just now, IgotBILLStopay said: I am not saying Devin White will fall. I think you and I are saying the same thing except I don’t want a MLB in Round 1. In fact there is a good chance both Devins are gone by 8 since the LB talent drop off after that is huge. Pls see my mock in the OP. I now believe that Devin Bush is top 10 as well. I have always liked the both of them, and if I were to draft them, I would employ them both in various ways based on their speed and impact potential. In other words, I would make room for them somewhere! Anyway, what the hell do I know!
Green Lightning Posted April 25, 2019 Posted April 25, 2019 10 hours ago, Bill from NYC said: I don't know if this is legit but its pretty funny. Seems unlikely that that's for real but man it is funny.
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