Case against first round TEs

[BillsFan1988]

22 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I agree.  I think the success of the individual is a function of good college experience, athletic ability, effort exerted, learning ability of the player, teaching ability of the coaching staff, and the effectiveness of the offensive system in which the player is asked to function.  From everything I have read about Hockenson, he had good development at Iowa, is very athletic, is a high effort guy, and is a very smart player.  The team owns the responsibility to teach what is lacking and put him in a system that fits his ability.  He is the best TE prospect that has come along in a long time.  If he is the BPA at pick #9, there should be no hesitation.  There is a real chance that he will be gone before Pick #9.

It should not be overlooked Hock played in a pro system at Iowa. 

[Inigo Montoya]

4 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

I'm anti-1st round TE. Especially that high. My case: the batting average of busts for every TE taken in the 1st round.

 

Also the relatively low production for many that weren't quite busts. We're shooting for that rare tier one TE, of which there's maybe 2 or 3 clear top guys, that really end up anywhere in the draft. Seems like one of the riskiest positions to go high in.

 

I think the flaw in your reasoning is that ten years ago, even five years ago, Hockenson, Fant, and Irv Smith wouldn't have received 1st round grades because the TE position was devalued compared to where it was today.  Hock, Fant,  and Smith would have had second or third round grades in the past and that is where they would have been selected just like Gronk, Ertz, and Kittle.

 

What has changed is that the NFL is now valuing the TE position more so they are now getting 1st round grades.  All those TEs that get pointed out with 2nd and 3rd round grades in the past like Gronk and Ertz would be 1st rounders today.  What that means is that you are no longer getting Gronk / Ertz / Kittle quality TEs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds anymore because they are now going in the 1st round.  If you wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to draft a TE today you're getting a TE who would have been selected in the 4th-6th rounds before.

 

In short, the elite TEs don't go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds anymore, they go in the 1st round because the NFL game has changed and TEs are valued more now.

 

Just my take.  Could be wrong.  ?

[Shaw66]

25 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I think the flaw in your reasoning is that ten years ago, even five years ago, Hockenson, Fant, and Irv Smith wouldn't have received 1st round grades because the TE position was devalued compared to where it was today.  Hock, Fant,  and Smith would have had second or third round grades in the past and that is where they would have been selected just like Gronk, Ertz, and Kittle.

 

What has changed is that the NFL is now valuing the TE position more so they are now getting 1st round grades.  All those TEs that get pointed out with 2nd and 3rd round grades in the past like Gronk and Ertz would be 1st rounders today.  What that means is that you are no longer getting Gronk / Ertz / Kittle quality TEs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds anymore because they are now going in the 1st round.  If you wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to draft a TE today you're getting a TE who would have been selected in the 4th-6th rounds before.

 

In short, the elite TEs don't go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds anymore, they go in the 1st round because the NFL game has changed and TEs are valued more now.

 

Just my take.  Could be wrong.  ?

This an exceptionally interesting point.  It may be correct, which means my view of the value of TEs is simply out of date.  Put another way, the TE is now a more integral part of the passing game, so the TE can have value more like a wideout's impact.  I'm still not sure that's correct, but that's just me being my stubborn self.  

[#34fan]

4 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

I'm not sure you get the point on value

 

Then why did I say This:

 

5 hours ago, #34fan said:

I get your point about Value... I truly wish we didn't need an excellent blocking/catching TE...  I wish there'd be one as-good available in the 3rd-4th, but there isn't.

 

The key word there is need.  Again, if I thought Josh Oliver, or Drew Sample were anything close to Hockenson, I'd concede... -They're not.   This kid will be a tremendous help to Allen, and impact the outcome of games if used correctly.  

 

4 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

So why do I need a TE drafted in RD1, let alone at pick #9? As stated above, OJ Howard had similar comments about him as Hock and other highly rated TEs the last 10 years.

 

1) Because you're not going to find a better one later... Irv Smith is the closest you'll get, and I'm not buying him as a pure TE... Bringing up OJ Howard, a kid who hasn't been able to work with a decent QB or OC since he got in the league doesn't help your argument at all. -Neither does the breaking news that it sometimes takes players a year or two to develop within a system... I'm perfectly OK with that time frame. -Lets get him in here and get started.

[djp14150]

You should not draft a TE in the top 12 unless he off the charts and is near certain being a pro bowl TE

 

you look at the best TEs and where they were drafted and the busts from high picks.

 

if buffalo wants to pick a TE..trade the ***** down and get a 2nd.

 

 

[#34fan]

10 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

 

You should not draft a TE in the top 12 unless he off the charts and is near certain being a pro bowl TE

 

 

Oh, he off the charts.

[row_33]

14 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Gronk is once in a generation type. I think the Hock comparisons to Witten more legit and would still take that at #9 as long as Oliver off the board 

 

Gronk, Bill, and Tom.

 

 

 

30 or more teams would never have found a way to use Gronk like that

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, row_33 said:

 

Gronk, Bill, and Tom.

 

 

 

30 or more teams would never have found a way to use Gronk like that

What the Patriots did with Gronk was add a different dimension to an already top passing offense!  They found that the LBers couldn't keep up with him on routes and DBs had a difficult time tackling him. A great TE like Gronk can do things a TE can do, he can do things a WR does and he can do things an offensive lineman can do. The guy is like an OT with WR speed and hands that catch everything. 

 

We see that TJ Hockenson is already a great blocker by taking on DE's and then pushes them around for 10 yards. We see that Hock is already a great pass catcher in that he has dropped only two passes in two seasons. This last stat alone would make him invaluable to a second year, deep throwing QB. We already see that Hock has the ability to find openings in zones.

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTrLwZRhhBg

 

To that last sentence, many, many NFL teams are looking at trying to find a Gronk of their own. At this point, I doubt the Bills @9 even get a shot at Hock as the Lions @8 tried to trade for Gronk last year. That is if he gets by the Jags @ 7. 

 

[row_33]

12 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

What the Patriots did with Gronk was add a different dimension to an already top passing offense!  They found that the LBers couldn't keep up with him on routes and DBs had a difficult time tackling him. A great TE like Gronk can do things a TE can do, he can do things a WR does and he can do things an offensive lineman can do. The guy is like an OT with WR speed and hands that catch everything. 

 

We see that TJ Hockenson is already a great blocker by taking on DE's and then pushes them around for 10 yards. We see that Hock is already a great pass catcher in that he has dropped only two passes in two seasons. This last stat alone would make him invaluable to a second year, deep throwing QB. We already see that Hock has the ability to find openings in zones.

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTrLwZRhhBg

 

To that last sentence, many, many NFL teams are looking at trying to find a Gronk of their own. At this point, I doubt the Bills @9 even get a shot at Hock as the Lions @8 tried to trade for Gronk last year. That is if he gets by the Jags @ 7. 

 

 

i conclude that coaches would love to implement a double TE O if they only could

 

when they can they sure run with it

 

 

[buffaloaggie]

If Buffalo is planning on taking a TE in this draft, it will likely be with the #9 pick. With the Broncos, Jags and Patriots needing TEs, they may be likely waiting a long time, if they pass on Hockenson in the 1st. The Bills have positioned themselves to draft the best player available, with free agency moves. All I ask is just don't reach by taking the 2nd best TE @ 9. 

[Figster]

14 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I think the flaw in your reasoning is that ten years ago, even five years ago, Hockenson, Fant, and Irv Smith wouldn't have received 1st round grades because the TE position was devalued compared to where it was today.  Hock, Fant,  and Smith would have had second or third round grades in the past and that is where they would have been selected just like Gronk, Ertz, and Kittle.

 

What has changed is that the NFL is now valuing the TE position more so they are now getting 1st round grades.  All those TEs that get pointed out with 2nd and 3rd round grades in the past like Gronk and Ertz would be 1st rounders today.  What that means is that you are no longer getting Gronk / Ertz / Kittle quality TEs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds anymore because they are now going in the 1st round.  If you wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to draft a TE today you're getting a TE who would have been selected in the 4th-6th rounds before.

 

In short, the elite TEs don't go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds anymore, they go in the 1st round because the NFL game has changed and TEs are valued more now.

 

Just my take.  Could be wrong.  ?

The game itself has also changed by way of protecting the receiver making the TE position become monsters of the grid iron on O.

 

Hockenson is a monster...

 

...Josh Allen needs a monster TE...

Edited April 25, 2019 by Figster

[row_33]

So Gronk and the great TE's of this age would have been ignored 15 years ago as an attack option?

 

i don't think so.... best player available and a coach with a clue can work wonders.

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

Nobody is mentioning that the TE position can be done by committee.  Beane has said that he sees 3 types of tight ends.   PASS BLOCKING,  RUN BLOCKING and PASS CATCHING.    Honestly, most of the time, the defense can guess what the most likely type of offensive play is coming from down and distance and the way the game is going.    You can sub in the right style tight end to make your offensive play go better and the defense may or may not be able to counter.  You can also sub in a type of TE and do something else and get an advantage that way.   A pass catching tight end IS NOT NEEDED for "3rd and 15".  That is where (have you ever heard?) 4 receiver sets are used.

 

Look at who the Bills have on the roster right now.   Fisher is a former 300pound OT converted to tight end  (blocking,  280 6-6).  Crom was a college wide receiver.   Kraft was behind an all pro in Cinci and did okay in 2017 where he started 13 games. (42 receptions, 400 yards and 7 TD).  It is not that they have nobody.

[row_33]

15 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Nobody is mentioning that the TE position can be done by committee.  Beane has said that he sees 3 types of tight ends.   PASS BLOCKING,  RUN BLOCKING and PASS CATCHING.    Honestly, most of the time, the defense can guess what the most likely type of offensive play is coming from down and distance and the way the game is going.    You can sub in the right style tight end to make your offensive play go better and the defense may or may not be able to counter.  You can also sub in a type of TE and do something else and get an advantage that way.   A pass catching tight end IS NOT NEEDED for "3rd and 15".  That is where (have you ever heard?) 4 receiver sets are used.

 

Look at who the Bills have on the roster right now.   Fisher is a former 300pound OT converted to tight end  (blocking,  280 6-6).  Crom was a college wide receiver.   Kraft was behind an all pro in Cinci and did okay in 2017 where he started 13 games. (42 receptions, 400 yards and 7 TD).  It is not that they have nobody.

 

Bills don't care about TE, nor have they pursued a great to play there

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Nobody is mentioning that the TE position can be done by committee.  Beane has said that he sees 3 types of tight ends.   PASS BLOCKING,  RUN BLOCKING and PASS CATCHING.    Honestly, most of the time, the defense can guess what the most likely type of offensive play is coming from down and distance and the way the game is going.    You can sub in the right style tight end to make your offensive play go better and the defense may or may not be able to counter.  You can also sub in a type of TE and do something else and get an advantage that way.   A pass catching tight end IS NOT NEEDED for "3rd and 15".  That is where (have you ever heard?) 4 receiver sets are used.

 

Look at who the Bills have on the roster right now.   Fisher is a former 300pound OT converted to tight end  (blocking,  280 6-6).  Crom was a college wide receiver.   Kraft was behind an all pro in Cinci and did okay in 2017 where he started 13 games. (42 receptions, 400 yards and 7 TD).  It is not that they have nobody.

Right, but the Hock supporters say (I don't know this myself, but they say it) that the reason Hock is unusual and worth the pick is that he's all three rolled into one, which is what Gronk was.  Your offense has great options if the tight end you put on the field does all three.   It allows for your QB to check from a power running play to a pass play and vice versa, and have a right personnel on the field at tight end either way.   In fact, that's one of the things that made the Patriots offense so devastating.   When the offense had a good mismatch against a small D, they'd go hurry up and run the ball, not allowing the D to substitute.  When they caught the D in a big, slower run-stopping defense, they'd go hurry up and pass multiple plays in a row.   They could do both equally well with Gronk on the field.   

 

You're right, the roster IS set up to do TE by committee, and that's not bad.   But instead of Croom, it's better if your pass catching tight end is more like Witten or any of the lesser but solid tight ends, who are excellent route runners and at least decent blockers.  And those guys are also better than a Fisher, who (at least so far as we know, is likely to be more of a third offensive tackle.  It will be great if he's a real route running threat, but I'm not holding my breath.  

 

[Figster]

8 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Bills don't care about TE, nor have they pursued a great to play there

 

 

Perhaps the draft will change our perspective.

[Jumpsuit Jim]

I guess we should change the motto to “BPA unless it’s a TE in the first round because they are never worth that high of a pick.”

 

So stated the OP. And that stance is ludicrous. 

[Wayne Cubed]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Right, but the Hock supporters say (I don't know this myself, but they say it) that the reason Hock is unusual and worth the pick is that he's all three rolled into one, which is what Gronk was.  Your offense has great options if the tight end you put on the field does all three.   It allows for your QB to check from a power running play to a pass play and vice versa, and have a right personnel on the field at tight end either way.   In fact, that's one of the things that made the Patriots offense so devastating.   When the offense had a good mismatch against a small D, they'd go hurry up and run the ball, not allowing the D to substitute.  When they caught the D in a big, slower run-stopping defense, they'd go hurry up and pass multiple plays in a row.   They could do both equally well with Gronk on the field.   

 

You're right, the roster IS set up to do TE by committee, and that's not bad.   But instead of Croom, it's better if your pass catching tight end is more like Witten or any of the lesser but solid tight ends, who are excellent route runners and at least decent blockers.  And those guys are also better than a Fisher, who (at least so far as we know, is likely to be more of a third offensive tackle.  It will be great if he's a real route running threat, but I'm not holding my breath.  

 

 

Unfortunately, I don't think Hockenson is the next Gronk or anywhere near the route runner Gronk was. I'm not sure he will become that either. He's got soft hands so he does catch everything and he is an excellent blocker but Fant is the more dynamic receiver out of the 2 Iowa TEs, my opinion of course.

 

I still feel very much like this is going to go just like the Oj Howard hype. Loads of pundits had him as a top 10 pick, can't miss, sure thing etc. He ended up going 19.

[Figster]

4 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

Unfortunately, I don't think Hockenson is the next Gronk or anywhere near the route runner Gronk was. I'm not sure he will become that either. He's got soft hands so he does catch everything and he is an excellent blocker but Fant is the more dynamic receiver out of the 2 Iowa TEs, my opinion of course.

 

I still feel very much like this is going to go just like the Oj Howard hype. Loads of pundits had him as a top 10 pick, can't miss, sure thing etc. He ended up going 19.

 Soft hands and excellent blocker in an O that likes to run the football is ok by me. With Allens ability to extend plays the blocking and soft hands are key IMO.

 

Point taken on the drop to 19.

 

 

[Bing Bong]

17 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I think the flaw in your reasoning is that ten years ago, even five years ago, Hockenson, Fant, and Irv Smith wouldn't have received 1st round grades because the TE position was devalued compared to where it was today.  Hock, Fant,  and Smith would have had second or third round grades in the past and that is where they would have been selected just like Gronk, Ertz, and Kittle.

 

What has changed is that the NFL is now valuing the TE position more so they are now getting 1st round grades.  All those TEs that get pointed out with 2nd and 3rd round grades in the past like Gronk and Ertz would be 1st rounders today.  What that means is that you are no longer getting Gronk / Ertz / Kittle quality TEs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds anymore because they are now going in the 1st round.  If you wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to draft a TE today you're getting a TE who would have been selected in the 4th-6th rounds before.

 

In short, the elite TEs don't go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds anymore, they go in the 1st round because the NFL game has changed and TEs are valued more now.

 

Just my take.  Could be wrong.  ?

Sure that's a good point, but since when did this change happen? It's sort of a self fulfilling prophecy justifying us taking Hockenson along with maybe the 2 other top TEs going 1st if we're making the claim teams value TE's high more 2019 draft and going forward when we're one of those teams.

 

Anyways my other main point is simply production. OJ Howard was the rage, is by no means a bust, and the production just doesn't justify the price for me. For that matter Kittle was what, like the 6th TE taken that year? He wouldn't have been a round 1-2 TE that year even if teams had a premium on TEs. 

 

Too much of it is contingent on assuming your Quarterback likes those TE routes as well. Take Jimmy Graham as a top flight TE to underutilized by Russell Wilson and later Aaron Rodgers who's a great QB but simply doesn't give his TEs that much production. It's not always the TE, the QB has to love the routes the TE runs in the offense, on top of the TE being an elite players in his own right. 

 

Taking all that into consideration it is a risky prospect: there's very few TEs truly at the top of the totem pole.. they're hard to find, QBs like Wentz or Mahomes target the TE heavily, the OC needs to draw up the right plays to get it working, and even hitting your TE with OJ Howard, a TE you can't really complain about picking, draws little production compared to a high WR. It's paying a steep price to expect a TE to the one of the top 3 in the league.. the production after that goes off a cliff. We're presumably looking for 3 of 32 elite starting TEs rather than 10 of 32 elite WRs or some other position. 

 

I think aiming for such a difficult talent to separate from the pack, on top of teams presumably becoming more gung ho on this position is asking for a lot. If you land with OJ Howard, you could have somewhat similar in FA getting a Jesse James or something. The production if things work out isn't terribly hard to replace through other methods outside of a top 10 pick.