zonabb Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 Totally flawed logic. The TA position has gone through a rapid transition and change in its role and importance in the game. By this failed argument, you should ignore that evolution, the stats put up by the players list by round and not draft a TE in round 1 even if you feel like he's a 100 catch, 1,000 yard player. But if a WR is projected as such, then get him in round 1. Got it. Totally logical.
JM57 Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 28 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said: Might you suspect that a team who throws more to the TE than all the WR is runnng a gimmic offense? Does that translate to the pros? I would suspect that means that Iowa, a noted NFL TE factory, had NFL talent at that position and not at WR... 1 1
billsfan1959 Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 Just now, maryland-bills-fan said: Yes. I'm an old guy. If you put me in a football uniform and had me run pass patterns against an even older slower guy, I might look pretty good. Be aware of what most nfl rookies say. They can't believe the speed of the pro game. Part of that is speed and part of that is that the players are all smart and instictive. And this is relevant to Hockenson, how? 1
Nihilarian Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said: Gee, you forgot to consider whether these were pretty damn good offensive teams BEFORE they got this TE, or did the TE make them an offensive juggernaught. A high draft pick TE, is a luxury AFTER you get the rest right. High grade OT before spending a high 1st pick on a TE. The Buffalo Bills went out and drafted their franchise QB before the offensive line was worth a damn! My lord that 2018 Buffalo Bills O line was one of the worst the last two decades! Then, they only had one good player on that line out of five and his play went south due to such inferior talent next to him. Ever hear the phrase, "you strike while the fire is hot"? The Bills did that last year with the QB because the Bills FO saw their future franchise QB in a very rich QB draft. The prospects this year pale in comparison. This year the draft looks to have a "Tony Gonzalez" type TE. Now, top tight ends aren't usually considered first round material...unless of course the scouts grade them as such! Gonzalez was was graded as a first round pick back in 1997 and KC decided to trade from #18 to #13 and draft him. This year the draft has a possible three tight ends graded in the first round, TJ Hockenson, Irv Smith and Noah Fant. The thing is, Hock isn't just graded as a first rounder! He has been graded as a top 10 pick by the majority of the media/ex-scouts. Look at the people grading this player, Gil Brandt, Has Hock as the 6th best player in the draft. Todd McShay has Hock going #7 to the Jags. Ex-scout for several NFL teams Daniel Jeremiah compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to former TV broadcaster Jason Witten and a top 10 pick. Ex-Buffalo Bill, ex-NFL scout NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks lists Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson is one of the "gold jacket" prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft class. A top ten pick. Walter Football's Charlie Campbell compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to Philadelphia Eagles TE Zack Ertz. The Athletic's Dane Brugler believes Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson has a "complete skill set." Mel Kiper sent Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson to the Lions at No. 8 overall I could go on and on with the scouts. The point here is that not many tight ends have ever been graded this high...ever! for several reasons. Like Josh Allen and watching him play at Wyoming, it was like watching a eighth graders playing against a senior. Hock was the same way. TJ Hockenson doesn't just block people, he "rag dolls" them! He pancakes them! He is an elite blocker. Hock doesn't just "catch" footballs...he catches everything! In his two seasons at Iowa he dropped only two passes. Last season he dropped one out of 49 passes. Some of you can go on and on whining about no tight end is first round worthy... and yet there is an exception to everything. I can recall before last years draft 98% of this board hated the idea of drafting Josh Allen and most wanted Josh Rosen. So much so that I kept reading that the Bills FO should give up the farm in 2018 (meaning the majority of the early draft picks) to trade up with the NY Giants at #2 and ahead of the Jets at #3 to draft Josh Rosen. Some even wanted to give up this years first rounder too. Just goes to show... Edited April 24, 2019 by Nihilarian 3
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 38 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: And this is relevant to Hockenson, how? You failed to notice that Hockenson's performance was all against linebackers who will probably not make a NFL roster. Film showing wonderful things needs to consider that it shows the performance against relatively slower linebackers who don't react as quickly as the best linebackers. When you watch film, you don't see the absolute speeds but the relative speeds of those players.
eball Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 12 hours ago, mrags said: I was was a big Fant guy over Hock. I’m starting to turn. After seeing Fant's Wonderlic scores I'm wondering how he ties his own shoelaces. 2
WideNine Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 (edited) 13 hours ago, mrags said: You can make an argument that besides Line and QB. The TE position is in the field more than any other position in football (assuming they are very good). I say go without shock at 9. I was was a big Fant guy over Hock. I’m starting to turn. I was in your shoes last fall. Was digging into receivers the Bills should target and came away unimpressed. Just too little gap between the guys that had a late 1st round grade and the crowded field with 2nd round grades. I started focusing then on the TE class in particular Fant who was considered the top prospect. I was trying to understand why the Hawks coach Ferentz was sitting Fant and playing their red shirt sophomore Hockenson and came away understanding why Hock was a special 3 down TE that was hard to take off the field. That did not fully explain why Fant "the destroyer of secondaries" was warming the pine. Sure he has critical drops on occasion and the blocking was not as polished, but IMO the effort was there and he was almost impossible to cover. He was certainly in the coaches doghouse and I have no idea why. We have seen rumors from scouts that he is a "coach killer" not sure why. The difference maker to me was that Fant was the athletic flex TE more in the mold of Ebron and Hernandez, Hernandez had better hands. Hockenson was more that complete TE a coach could leave on the field and as a red shirt sophomore there was still room for the kid to grow into his frame and get stronger. I still think Fant has amazing athletic skills and could end up being better. His resume just has more unexplainable questions. That and the occasional drops. I admittedly had a low tolerance for dropped passes after last season. Skills alone they are both very good TE prospects in a year where the WR class lacks clear blue-chip talent hence I think the bump into the early 1st round. Edited April 24, 2019 by WideNine
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, Nihilarian said: The Buffalo Bills went out and drafted their franchise QB before the offensive line was worth a damn! My lord that 2018 Buffalo Bills O line was one of the worst the last two decades! Then, they only had one good player on that line out of five and his play went south due to such inferior talent next to him. Ever hear the phrase, "you strike while the fire is hot"? The Bills did that last year with the QB because the Bills FO saw their future franchise QB in a very rich QB draft. The prospects this year pale in comparison. This year the draft looks to have a "Tony Gonzalez" type TE. Now, top tight ends aren't usually considered first round material...unless of course the scouts grade them as such! Gonzalez was was graded as a first round pick back in 1997 and KC decided to trade from #18 to #13 and draft him. This year the draft has a possible three tight ends graded in the first round, TJ Hockenson, Irv Smith and Noah Fant. The thing is, Hock isn't just graded as a first rounder! He has been graded as a top 10 pick by the majority of the media/ex-scouts. Look at the people grading this player, Gil Brandt, Has Hock as the 6th best player in the draft. Todd McShay has Hock going #7 to the Jags. Ex-scout for several NFL teams Daniel Jeremiah compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to former TV broadcaster Jason Witten and a top 10 pick. Ex-Buffalo Bill, ex-NFL scout NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks lists Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson is one of the "gold jacket" prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft class. A top ten pick. Walter Football's Charlie Campbell compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to Philadelphia Eagles TE Zack Ertz. The Athletic's Dane Brugler believes Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson has a "complete skill set." Mel Kiper sent Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson to the Lions at No. 8 overall I could go on and on with the scouts. The point here is that not many tight ends have ever been graded this high...ever! for several reasons. Like Josh Allen and watching him play at Wyoming, it was like watching a eighth graders playing against a senior. Hock was the same way. TJ Hockenson doesn't just block people, he "rag dolls" them! He pancakes them! He is an elite blocker. Hock doesn't just "catch" footballs...he catches everything! In his two seasons at Iowa he dropped only two passes. Last season he dropped one out of 49 passes. Some of you can go on and on whining about no tight end is first round worthy... and yet there is an exception to everything. I can recall before last years draft 98% of this board hated the idea of drafting Josh Allen and most wanted Josh Rosen. So much so that I kept reading that the Bills FO should give up the farm in 2018 (meaning the majority of the early draft picks) to trade up with the NY Giants at #2 and ahead of the Jets at #3 to draft Josh Rosen. Some even wanted to give up this years first rounder too. Just goes to show... ...FWIW, seems to be that TE spot is 2nd most neglected right behind QB spot (pre Josh) in this club's lore......Pete, Jay R and probably Campbell were the last good ones.....some day we need to get a top flight TE so we can smoke the opposition like they have smoked us for YEARS...... 1
Jumpsuit Jim Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 So the thesis of this post is “Tight Ends aren’t worth a first round pick because they rarely develop into elite 1st round football players before their rookie contract runs out”. Most football analysts will say that the easiest, most plug-and-play out of the box from college to pro position is running back. I have also heard football people saying that one of the hardest transitions (outside of quarterback) is O Line because collegiate football is so different offensively than pro. So if we apply the original thesis to all positions, we should take running backs in the first round and offensive linemen in the latter rounds. I find the OP’s thesis to be a recipe for failure. Null and void. 2
WideNine Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Jumpsuit Jim said: So the thesis of this post is “Tight Ends aren’t worth a first round pick because they rarely develop into elite 1st round football players before their rookie contract runs out”. Most football analysts will say that the easiest, most plug-and-play out of the box from college to pro position is running back. I have also heard football people saying that one of the hardest transitions (outside of quarterback) is O Line because collegiate football is so different offensively than pro. So if we apply the original thesis to all positions, we should take running backs in the first round and offensive linemen in the latter rounds. I find the OP’s thesis to be a recipe for failure. Null and void. A well thought out counterpoint. Also, the past is not always a clear predictor of the future. A good place to start, but should be a weighted consideration. We should also consider the game where player roles evolve with schemes that rise and fall in popularity, where CBA and free agency limit how players can be used or coached. All these things impact the importance of positions and the kind of investment and expectations fans should have regarding their team's approach to filling those roles. All this being said, my support of taking a solid TE early does not mean I will be upset if the Bills go defense first. Edited April 24, 2019 by WideNine
Shaw66 Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 13 hours ago, Reed83HOF said: Outside of the quarterback position, tight ends have the steepest learning curve when transitioning to the NFL. The reason it can take years for a player to acclimate to an offense and develop into a starter is that the position demands a player to be a dependable piece in both the running and passing game. That means understanding the blocking scheme and how to read defenses from a blocking and passing game perspective. It's also a time for these 21-22-year olds, who are competing against the most athletic and skilled players they've ever faced, to continue to fill out their frame and learn technique because there is zero room for error in the trenches. Then there is always the time it takes to polish your route running, possibly expanding your route tree and gaining rapport with your quarterback. Until a player can develop an all-around game they'll be pigeonholed into a limited role. Drafting and developing a tight end is the ultimate patience play and it can understandably be uncomfortable and difficult to hold strong when you see other first-rounders become instant impact players. The Lions are a perfect example of this. They drafted Eric Ebron 10th overall in 2014 and low and behold the next seven picks would make a Pro Bowl while still on their rookie deal. Those players selected would include the likes of Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham. Last offseason, Detroit decided to move on from Ebron as they determined that he wasn't worth the price tag of his 5th-year option ($8.25M). Both the franchise and the player are in a tough spot. Eric Ebron arguably wasn't worth paying $8.25M but he also was progressing like the majority of successful tight ends do. And that's exactly the point! It is really worth investing your most important draft asset into a player who may take years to develop and you may not see the benefit until four years down the road or until their second contract? Is there a better use of your resources? Greg Olsen has a similar story to Ebron. He was taken 31st overall in the 2007 draft by the Chicago Bears. He put up respectable production his first four years and heading into his 5th season he was shipped off to Carolina where he continued to grow and later became a Pro Bowler and All-Pro on his 2nd and 3rd contracts. http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/replacing-gronkowski This is quite interesting. I'm not sure it's correct, but it has logic on its side. So it follows that the smart move in looking for tight ends is to draft one in later rounds and keep doing it until one turns into a star. And look for a star in free agency. In the meantime, what you need is a guy (exactly the kind of guy McDermott loves) who will spend all of his time and energy and whatever athletic ability he has learning all the difficult stuff you describe. That guy likely will be as productive as a first-round, future Pro Bowl guy while the future Pro-Bowl guy is learning all the stuff he has to learn. This analysis brings me back to a conclusion I reached several years ago, which is that tight end just isn't that important a position that it makes sense to use an early first-round choice on one. It's not so much that the position isn't important, because it's become more important in the past 10 years; it's just that you get better value at other positions high in the first-round. It just isn't very likely that you're going to find a tight end high in the first round who is going to change your team in his first two or three years. Sure, you MIGHT find a Gronk, but you can get a good offensive tackle high in the first round, and he's going to play for you from day one and make an impact on your team. The chances of finding a Gronk, who impacts your team from day one, are pretty small. I know fans love one tight end coming out, but I'll be disappointed if that's the Bills' pick at 9. I mean, if he's the pick, I'm sure Beane will know what he's doing, but I view a tight end pick at 9 as a high risk proposition. With a much higher likelihood of success, you can get an offensive or defensive lineman at 9, and I believe that success in the first round is one of the most important principles in good team building. QB is the only position that merits a high-risk, high-reward approach in the first round. Spiller and Maybin were high-risk, high-reward, and those picks impacted the Bills' future for years. 1
Reed83HOF Posted April 24, 2019 Author Posted April 24, 2019 10 hours ago, YattaOkasan said: So on positional value I think there is first round value (I think other posters agree) BUT the return on that capital takes longer. This is why I am intrigued with Hock but sorta just want a stud pass rusher instead because we seem to wanting to win now. If you’re pounding for Hock you’re probably try to set up for the long term. The purpose of this post was to spur discussion on this topic and positional value in RD1. As I have said I like Hock and have high on my list of prospects based on talent, but there are some issues. The general thought on RD1 players is that they should be immediate contributors in today's NFL, it isn't the pre-free agency and pre-salary cap era, where they can sit on the bench and ripen; they need to play now. TE production there first few years is generally very low, the need to go through the learning curve of playing OL and WR in the NFL - that is 2 positions they need to become proficient in. TE in the first round is a luxury pick and contribute very little during their rookie contract. If you can get 90% of the player in RD2 or lower, the contributions you rely on to win now are lessened, they have more time to develop and the cost of the contract is minimized so you can spend more on the premium positions that are able to contribute to winning now. Taking a player in RD1 to play in the long run is a waste of RD1 resources.
Reed83HOF Posted April 24, 2019 Author Posted April 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: This is quite interesting. I'm not sure it's correct, but it has logic on its side. So it follows that the smart move in looking for tight ends is to draft one in later rounds and keep doing it until one turns into a star. And look for a star in free agency. In the meantime, what you need is a guy (exactly the kind of guy McDermott loves) who will spend all of his time and energy and whatever athletic ability he has learning all the difficult stuff you describe. That guy likely will be as productive as a first-round, future Pro Bowl guy while the future Pro-Bowl guy is learning all the stuff he has to learn. This analysis brings me back to a conclusion I reached several years ago, which is that tight end just isn't that important a position that it makes sense to use an early first-round choice on one. It's not so much that the position isn't important, because it's become more important in the past 10 years; it's just that you get better value at other positions high in the first-round. It just isn't very likely that you're going to find a tight end high in the first round who is going to change your team in his first two or three years. Sure, you MIGHT find a Gronk, but you can get a good offensive tackle high in the first round, and he's going to play for you from day one and make an impact on your team. The chances of finding a Gronk, who impacts your team from day one, are pretty small. I know fans love one tight end coming out, but I'll be disappointed if that's the Bills' pick at 9. I mean, if he's the pick, I'm sure Beane will know what he's doing, but I view a tight end pick at 9 as a high risk proposition. With a much higher likelihood of success, you can get an offensive or defensive lineman at 9, and I believe that success in the first round is one of the most important principles in good team building. QB is the only position that merits a high-risk, high-reward approach in the first round. Spiller and Maybin were high-risk, high-reward, and those picks impacted the Bills' future for years. It has really made me re-think this position. Especially when I started to look into career stats, 500+ receptions, 50+ TDs etc = there are not many in NFL history ~11-14 of them with only 8 in the HOF. For a first rounder who catches passes I would want someone who will have more that 500 career catches and 50 TDs, especially in the top 10. I agree 100% with your conclusion. @BADOLBILZ has the best positions on what should be taken in round wise (QB, Pass Rusher, CB, LT, WR are Rd1 one guys - I'm close with this not exact LOL). There is a reason for this, they impact your chances of winning and losing each game the most and can contribute quickly. This matches up well with the free agency $$ you see when these guys hit the marketplace. 1
Reed83HOF Posted April 24, 2019 Author Posted April 24, 2019 3 hours ago, Georgie said: But,15 or so have gone in the first round since 03 Who are the 15 and what are their stats there first 2-4 years in the league? What other impact players who would contribute to wins or losses were bypassed to pick these players? I'm not doing the homework on your claim, show me the data...
Shaw66 Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said: The purpose of this post was to spur discussion on this topic and positional value in RD1. As I have said I like Hock and have high on my list of prospects based on talent, but there are some issues. The general thought on RD1 players is that they should be immediate contributors in today's NFL, it isn't the pre-free agency and pre-salary cap era, where they can sit on the bench and ripen; they need to play now. TE production there first few years is generally very low, the need to go through the learning curve of playing OL and WR in the NFL - that is 2 positions they need to become proficient in. TE in the first round is a luxury pick and contribute very little during their rookie contract. If you can get 90% of the player in RD2 or lower, the contributions you rely on to win now are lessened, they have more time to develop and the cost of the contract is minimized so you can spend more on the premium positions that are able to contribute to winning now. Taking a player in RD1 to play in the long run is a waste of RD1 resources. I agree with this, except I think it's extremely hard to prove. The pro-TE folks aren't buying it. I've pretty much come around to the view that the winning formula is to have a franchise QB and have good total talent on the team, regardless of the rest of the positions. That's Belichick's approach. Shut-down corner is about the only position where he really wants a special talent. I think McB are following this approach. They want really good athletes dedicated to their team concept, and they want to get better every day, every week, every year. Year by year they upgrade the talent by taking the most talented players available to them. And in evaluating talent, I think they factor in the positions that players play. We had a brief discussion a couple weeks ago about how a guy who is a spectacular 3-4 LB prospect needs to be evaluated based on his importance to the team in the scheme the team plays, so no matter how good he is in the 3-4, the question is how good will he be in the 4-3. That is, 3-4 skills aren't fundamental to how the Bills play football. The extreme, silly example is the best punter in the history of football may be in the draft class, but he isn't your BPA because punting isn't fundamental to how you play football. Similarly, unless you're going to do what Belichick did with Gronk and Hernandez, tight end isn't fundamental to how the Bills want to play football. Protecting to the quarterback is fundamental. Getting at the other QB is fundamental. Having a HOF tight end isn't any more important to the Bills' philosophy than a HOF OLB or a HOF wideout. Taking a shot at the potential of a tight end makes more sense than taking a shot at a first-round punter, but it makes less sense than taking a shot at the potential in a lineman. 2 1
Reed83HOF Posted April 24, 2019 Author Posted April 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: Numerous tight ends made a huge impact early on... Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, Reed- They just happened to be picked up in rds 2-3. if you re did those respective drafts today, they’d certainly be first rounders. To me this whole line of thought speaks more about a past problem projecting TEs from college to pros or teams overvaluing a position they don’t use enough in their scheme. So whatever tangibles have pushed some of these others into rd 1 in the past look to be the wrong ones. At some point folks are going to start getting it right It's not about redoing a draft. What did those players contribute in their first 2-4 years in the league? Who are the numerous TEs who had a huge impact early on and what was the roster like on those teams? The production out of a first rounder is just not quite there... Gronk Ertz Shockey
Wayne Cubed Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Nihilarian said: Look at the people grading this player, Gil Brandt, Has Hock as the 6th best player in the draft. Todd McShay has Hock going #7 to the Jags. Ex-scout for several NFL teams Daniel Jeremiah compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to former TV broadcaster Jason Witten and a top 10 pick. Ex-Buffalo Bill, ex-NFL scout NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks lists Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson is one of the "gold jacket" prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft class. A top ten pick. Walter Football's Charlie Campbell compares Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to Philadelphia Eagles TE Zack Ertz. The Athletic's Dane Brugler believes Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson has a "complete skill set." Mel Kiper sent Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson to the Lions at No. 8 overall Geez, could your man crush be more obvious for Hock... Anyways just for fun... What they thought of OJ Howard: Gil Brandt, Has Howard as the 13th best player in the draft. Todd McShay has Howard going #4 to the Jags. Ex-scout for several NFL teams Daniel Jeremiah ranks Alabama TE OJ Howard 7th best player in the draft, the safest pick and a top 10 pick. Ex-Buffalo Bill, ex-NFL scout NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks says "Howard is the most complete tight end prospect to enter the league in the past decade." Said he could go top ten. Walter Football's Charlie Campbell compares Alabama TE OJ Howard to Carolina Panthers TE Greg Olsen. CBS Sports Dane Brugler believes Alabama TE OJ Howard has a "complete tight end." Mel Kiper sent Alabama tight end OJ Howard to the Jets at No. 6 overall And one more for ya.. Mike Mayock, former scout, former NFLN Analyst draft guru and current Raiders GM has OJ Howard going #6 to the Jets See what I did there? You are putting far far too much stock in the media personalities opinion of Hockenson. And with all those lofty expectations, how was Howard preformed thus far? Well it's all ready been pointed out in this thread so, I'm sure you've seen. PFF had Howard rated as the worst performer of the entire 1st round in 2017. I get it, you are really banging the table for Hock, you've made ya mind up. I honestly don't care what all those people think of Hockenson, I've watched him and I've made my own mind up on him. The GMs for 32 teams have made up their own mind on him and he'll go where they think he should based on what they believe his value is. Edited April 24, 2019 by Wayne Cubed 1
Shaw66 Posted April 24, 2019 Posted April 24, 2019 23 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said: It has really made me re-think this position. Especially when I started to look into career stats, 500+ receptions, 50+ TDs etc = there are not many in NFL history ~11-14 of them with only 8 in the HOF. For a first rounder who catches passes I would want someone who will have more that 500 career catches and 50 TDs, especially in the top 10. I agree 100% with your conclusion. @BADOLBILZ has the best positions on what should be taken in round wise (QB, Pass Rusher, CB, LT, WR are Rd1 one guys - I'm close with this not exact LOL). There is a reason for this, they impact your chances of winning and losing each game the most and can contribute quickly. This matches up well with the free agency $$ you see when these guys hit the marketplace. I agree. I think it's easy to fall in love with the best NFL tight ends, because they seem to make a lot of plays, but in the grand scheme I think it's unusual for a tight end to be a major long-term impact player for your team. Look at Graham when he went to Seattle. He was going to make their offense devastating. The reality is it's tough for a TE to be the guy who drives the offense. I don't know about BADO's list, only because I'm not even sold on wideouts. Other than QB, shut-down corner and an occasional safety, I don't think skill position players have the impact on the team that linemen and linebackers do. I think BPA is defined in part by importance to the team. Not in terms of need, just in terms of how important the position is the schemes you're running. I think more or less every coach will tell you that the overall strength of his offensive line and his defensive line is more important than the overall strength of his receiver room. That translates into this: if you have a receiver prospect and an offensive line prospect, and their potential to be All-Pro is exactly equal, the lineman is your BPA. Not because you have a need, but because your team is better served long-term with a star lineman than a star receiver. And I put tight end behind the wideouts in that analysis. So I think it's hard for a TE to be your BPA at 9. The position just isn't as important as some others. In other words, I think a tight end who is worth a pick at 9 just isn't as important to the team as an offensive tackle who is worth a pick at 9. 1
Reed83HOF Posted April 24, 2019 Author Posted April 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I agree with this, except I think it's extremely hard to prove. The pro-TE folks aren't buying it. I've pretty much come around to the view that the winning formula is to have a franchise QB and have good total talent on the team, regardless of the rest of the positions. That's Belichick's approach. Shut-down corner is about the only position where he really wants a special talent. I think McB are following this approach. They want really good athletes dedicated to their team concept, and they want to get better every day, every week, every year. Year by year they upgrade the talent by taking the most talented players available to them. And in evaluating talent, I think they factor in the positions that players play. We had a brief discussion a couple weeks ago about how a guy who is a spectacular 3-4 LB prospect needs to be evaluated based on his importance to the team in the scheme the team plays, so no matter how good he is in the 3-4, the question is how good will he be in the 4-3. That is, 3-4 skills aren't fundamental to how the Bills play football. The extreme, silly example is the best punter in the history of football may be in the draft class, but he isn't your BPA because punting isn't fundamental to how you play football. Similarly, unless you're going to do what Belichick did with Gronk and Hernandez, tight end isn't fundamental to how the Bills want to play football. Protecting to the quarterback is fundamental. Getting at the other QB is fundamental. Having a HOF tight end isn't any more important to the Bills' philosophy than a HOF OLB or a HOF wideout. Taking a shot at the potential of a tight end makes more sense than taking a shot at a first-round punter, but it makes less sense than taking a shot at the potential in a lineman. I'm in 100% agreement. I get the arguments on the pro-TE guys side of the fence; they can certainly be game changers, they create mismatches and can open up the field up. I am all for having one or 2 and I want them on my team. The TE we signed in FA will give us a couple years to groom someone we presumably draft this year, waiting a couple years for the first rounder to be an everyday player and impact the win column is not what I want out of a first rounder. What Beane has said about TE's this offseason: 1.) “To me, you draft the best player available,” Beane said. “If the so-called premium positions are gone, or if you don’t have a guy that is up there at a premium position, you shouldn’t take him.” 2.) Beane said he breaks down tight ends in three categories: pass catcher, run blocker, and pass blocker. “So as we’re going through these tight ends those are the three areas we focus on,” Beane said. “We did privates with certain guys and we went to pro days with guys from a lot of positions and that position as well.” 3.) "There's some guys that are some really good blockers but maybe they're not as good as receivers. There's some guys that you really don't want to block in a six tech but they're great in the passing game. So similar to receivers, there's different flavors at tight end and we've done our homework there. Free agency will be first, but the draft, there's some depth at tight end. From my point of view, and same as free agency, there's some guys that are really good athletes that maybe we need to improve their blocking. Or maybe they weren't asked to block, so we’ve got to do some more research and maybe they can once they’re taught, but there will be a growth opportunity for them if given the opportunity, whatever team they're on.” 4.) “If there’s truly depth at any position,” he said, “then that allows you push that need down the draft.” I think we can all agree on what the premium positions are (QB, PR, CB, OT, and to a degree WR) I'm not trying to convince anyone to change their viewpoint and agree with me. I am hoping that some of our fellow posters are able to see and understand the flip side of the coin and have a healthy discussion. It makes us all better!
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