Who are the Bills' most likely picks at 9? (Excellent Cover 1 article, now unlocked)

[DCOrange]

13 minutes ago, JM57 said:

I read the whole thing last night. He mentions official top 30 visits at OBD, senior bowl meetings, combine meetings, private workouts, shrine game...

His list of options at #9 is based specifically on the rationale that every first round pick Beane has made has been someone that came in for an official visit. The senior bowl meetings, combine meetings, etc. do not matter for that part of the article. He even makes sure to bold it so that readers can't miss it: 

 

Quote

*Based on GM Beane’s time in Carolina (2015-2017) and in Buffalo (2018-present), five out of five players who were taken in the first round were official visits. Note: Bills first-round draft choice in 2017 CB Tre’Davious White was not an official visit, but Beane was also NOT on the staff. The Panthers did have White in on an official visit, along with OT Dion Dawkins, WR Zay Jones, and LB linebacker Tanner Vallejo, all of whom were drafted by HC McDermott et al that year.

 

[JM57]

6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

The private workout  was reported prior to draft, it came out a couple weeks before . I remember specifically because i had harped for months that they hadn’t met with him, and then we found that they had flown out there end of March. It was not widely reported - one Wyoming person tweeted it and I found it. 

Here it is:

 

 

Here it is:

 

 

Yeah I had to do some googling myself to remember the timeline but I never saw that tweet. Thought it was kept more quiet. Thanks!

[DCOrange]

I'm not sure it really makes sense to eliminate WR or CB just based on the number of official visits either; it makes sense that they'd bring more WRs and CBs in for visits considering (1) they're still potentially viewed as a need, and more importantly, (2) you generally have 3 or 4 WR/CBs on the field on most plays versus, for example, one TE.

 

The CBs that were brought in were not 1st round prospects, so that can probably be safely ruled out, but in regard to WR for example, he eliminates WR from the list and keeps TE despite the fact that he believes 4 WRs and 4 TEs were brought in for official visits. So again, you're talking about a position where there's generally 3 or 4 times as many WRs on the field as there are TEs and yet we spent more visits on TEs, so based on this, the conclusion would seem to be that Buffalo is being more selective with WRs than they are with TEs. Of those visits, all 4 WRs are considered to be 1st round picks or fringe 1st round picks. The TEs, with the exception of Hockenson, are all considered to be Day 2 or Day 3 prospects. And yet Turner argues that it's the WR position that's being evaluated for depth rather than the TE position. I don't really follow that logic. It seems to me that if we're eliminating WR, we should also eliminate TE based on the same logic.

Edited April 23, 2019 by DCOrange

[Capco]

I'm leaning towards Oliver, then J. Williams (I think Quinnen has no chance to make it to 9), then Hock.  I love complete TEs, but it still feels weird grabbing a TE at 9.  

 

It will be interesting to see how the QB-hungry teams affect the first 8 picks and/or Beane's own pick at 9.  

[WideNine]

13 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I'm not sure it really makes sense to eliminate WR or CB just based on the number of official visits either; it makes sense that they'd bring more WRs and CBs in for visits considering (1) they're still potentially viewed as a need, and more importantly, (2) you generally have 3 or 4 WR/CBs on the field on most plays versus, for example, one TE.

 

The CBs that were brought in were not 1st round prospects, so that can probably be safely ruled out, but in regard to WR for example, he eliminates WR from the list and keeps TE despite the fact that he believes 4 WRs and 4 TEs were brought in for official visits. So again, you're talking about a position where there's generally 3 or 4 times as many WRs on the field as there are TEs and yet we spent more visits on TEs, so based on this, the conclusion would seem to be that Buffalo is being more selective with WRs than they are with TEs. Of those visits, all 4 WRs are considered to be 1st round picks or fringe 1st round picks. The TEs, with the exception of Hockenson, are all considered to be Day 2 or Day 3 prospects. And yet Turner argues that it's the WR position that's being evaluated for depth rather than the TE position. I don't really follow that logic. It seems to me that if we're eliminating WR, we should also eliminate TE based on the same logic.

 

He may be factoring in our current depth at WR. 

 

I think Foster has proven he has talent and we have not seen his ceiling yet. Brown is a proven commodity and another speedster that can line up opposite Foster and give defenses fits if they try to go man or play cover 1. 

 

In the slot they picked up a vet who runs crisp routes with sure hands in Beasley where Zay is going to have to pick up his game to compete.

 

They have a few more as camp guys who can compete for depth, but I have always thought that most of the receivers in this draft have a second round and later grade, and just a few with borderline 1st round talent.

 

Makes sense to look at the guys that might be there from the 2nd round on down.

 

 

[blacklabel]

12 hours ago, Turk71 said:

He thinks Devin White is not an option because he plays MLB and the Bills have Edmunds. Edmunds played OLB in college and I think he would be very effective outside. White in the middle and Edmunds and Milano outside would be a top LB trio for many years to come.

 

They're not moving Tremaine to OLB. They didn't hand him the keys of the defense and spend all of last season coaching him up to play MLB just to switch him to OLB the following year. 

[NoSaint]

12 hours ago, JM57 said:

Would you trust the LB to cover a slot WR or back lined up out of the backfield over a DB?

 

It happens more than you probably realize and if we have 3 guys that are good in space, it’s not terrible. 

 

The flip side is in a big nickel package situation  would you rather our 3rd safety or a guy like white and just stay base? I’m not saying we cut nickel totally but there’s obviously some flex in what makes up the percentages we are in that package.

 

plus, again, injuries at LB aren’t rare and it seems to be a key level in McDs scheme. 

[WideNine]

5 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

They're not moving Tremaine to OLB. They didn't hand him the keys of the defense and spend all of last season coaching him up to play MLB just to switch him to OLB the following year. 

 

As much as I would like to see Edmunds at OLB given the opportunity to rush the QB off the edge, I came to the same conclusion. 

 

Mike is where they are grooming him with no plans to move him in the near future.

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

41 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I'm not sure it really makes sense to eliminate WR or CB just based on the number of official visits either; it makes sense that they'd bring more WRs and CBs in for visits considering (1) they're still potentially viewed as a need, and more importantly, (2) you generally have 3 or 4 WR/CBs on the field on most plays versus, for example, one TE.

 

The CBs that were brought in were not 1st round prospects, so that can probably be safely ruled out, but in regard to WR for example, he eliminates WR from the list and keeps TE despite the fact that he believes 4 WRs and 4 TEs were brought in for official visits. So again, you're talking about a position where there's generally 3 or 4 times as many WRs on the field as there are TEs and yet we spent more visits on TEs, so based on this, the conclusion would seem to be that Buffalo is being more selective with WRs than they are with TEs. Of those visits, all 4 WRs are considered to be 1st round picks or fringe 1st round picks. The TEs, with the exception of Hockenson, are all considered to be Day 2 or Day 3 prospects. And yet Turner argues that it's the WR position that's being evaluated for depth rather than the TE position. I don't really follow that logic. It seems to me that if we're eliminating WR, we should also eliminate TE based on the same logic.

At least with WR, I believe it was moreso that only one of the WRs who came in was a projected 1st rounder, and they sit at 9, where almost no WRs have been mocked that high except DK here and there.  For example, last year they brought in both roquan smith and Vanderesch, projected 1st round LB. I think it was clear they were considering LB in the 1st if they kept 22.

Edited April 23, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[Reed83HOF]

I'm convinced we are going to maneuver for Oliver

 

From https://theathletic.com/940291/2019/04/23/from-dream-picks-to-trade-down-targets-the-bills-most-likely-options-at-no-9-in-the-draft/

 

He was miscast as a nose tackle in Houston’s defensive scheme but is at his best when penetrating into the backfield. Both Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott attended Oliver’s pro day workout at Houston. It was one of just two pro days McDermott attended this year. If Oliver is available at No. 9, he will be tough to pass up. Brugler rates him as the No. 5 prospect in this draft and describes Oliver as an “ideal one-gap penetrator due to his athleticism, instincts and relentless nature, projecting best when he is lined up closest to the football.”

 

McD at the Owners Meeting: 

 

"Yeah that's big. That's really big. To be able to get pressure from the inside... you know, people would argue that there's ways to take away the edge rusher more than there is ways to take away the inside, the interior rusher, and I would probably agree. The ability to pressure an effective quarterback from the inside out is critical when you want to play good football on defense. So, you've got to make sure that you've got enough of those guys."

 

Write up of the McD & Johnson Defense

 

In McDermott’s system — like most 4-3 alignments — the defensive line is unleashed on the opponent’s backfield (and quarterback) in a relentless one-gap onslaught. There’s little to no two-gapping for defensive linemen.

 

McDermott’s (and originally Johnson’s) idea is that quick penetration into the opponent’s backfield from any one of the defensive linemen is the fastest and most efficient way to disrupt the offense. This scheme doesn’t “protect” linebackers against pulling guards. It’s designed to stop run plays before the pulling guard’s block can have an effect at the second level.

Edited April 23, 2019 by Reed83HOF

[JM57]

11 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

It happens more than you probably realize and if we have 3 guys that are good in space, it’s not terrible. 

 

The flip side is in a big nickel package situation  would you rather our 3rd safety or a guy like white and just stay base? I’m not saying we cut nickel totally but there’s obviously some flex in what makes up the percentages we are in that package.

 

plus, again, injuries at LB aren’t rare and it seems to be a key level in McDs scheme. 

My biggest thing is that they have to finish the offense before making luxury picks like back to back MLB in round 1. The first window to win with a "franchise" QB is when he's on his rookie deal and you can pay him peanuts and throw money around elsewhere. If that's where they think they are with Allen, they better make sure he's got every piece around him to start winning games. They only have a limited window before version one of the team has to be broken up and retooled to afford Allen's first raise.

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

At least with WR, I believe it was moreso that only one of the WRs who came in was a projected 1st rounder, and they sit at 9, where almost no WRs have been mocked that high except DK here and there.  For example, last year they brought in both roquan smith and Vanderesch, projected 1st round LB. I think it was clear they were considering LB in the 1st if they kept 22.

Yes but that same logic applies to TE. They've hosted just as many TEs as WRs on official visits (based on the assumption that Hockenson was brought in) and like Metcalf, Hockenson is the only one projected to possibly go in the top 10. The other TEs are nowhere near as highly rated as the WRs are; nobody would be shocked if Harry, Brown, or Deebo are taken in the first round. Pretty much everybody would be shocked if Knox, Sternberger, or Wesco were taken in the first round.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

TJ Hockenson and Jerry Tillery

 

or 

 

Christian Wilkins and Irv Smith

[CommonCents]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

If Devin White is available and we take Hock that would be insane.  

I like that. White please 

[WideNine]

17 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I'm convinced we are going to maneuver for Oliver

 

From https://theathletic.com/940291/2019/04/23/from-dream-picks-to-trade-down-targets-the-bills-most-likely-options-at-no-9-in-the-draft/

 

He was miscast as a nose tackle in Houston’s defensive scheme but is at his best when penetrating into the backfield. Both Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott attended Oliver’s pro day workout at Houston. It was one of just two pro days McDermott attended this year. If Oliver is available at No. 9, he will be tough to pass up. Brugler rates him as the No. 5 prospect in this draft and describes Oliver as an “ideal one-gap penetrator due to his athleticism, instincts and relentless nature, projecting best when he is lined up closest to the football.”

 

McD at the Owners Meeting: 

 

"Yeah that's big. That's really big. To be able to get pressure from the inside... you know, people would argue that there's ways to take away the edge rusher more than there is ways to take away the inside, the interior rusher, and I would probably agree. The ability to pressure an effective quarterback from the inside out is critical when you want to play good football on defense. So, you've got to make sure that you've got enough of those guys."

 

Write up of the McD & Johnson Defense

 

In McDermott’s system — like most 4-3 alignments — the defensive line is unleashed on the opponent’s backfield (and quarterback) in a relentless one-gap onslaught. There’s little to no two-gapping for defensive linemen.

 

McDermott’s (and originally Johnson’s) idea is that quick penetration into the opponent’s backfield from any one of the defensive linemen is the fastest and most efficient way to disrupt the offense. This scheme doesn’t “protect” linebackers against pulling guards. It’s designed to stop run plays before the pulling guard’s block can have an effect at the second level.

 

Nice article and kind of touches on some of our personnel/scheme issues stopping the run last year.

 

Have always felt that if a runner is getting past your line, you have already surrendered 4 yards because he is hitting your second level with a head of steam.

 

Gap-penetrating defensive lineman seem to be a mismatched role to the way Star plays the position. Not saying he did not occupy blockers.

 

 

 

[Logic]

25 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I'm convinced we are going to maneuver for Oliver

 

From https://theathletic.com/940291/2019/04/23/from-dream-picks-to-trade-down-targets-the-bills-most-likely-options-at-no-9-in-the-draft/

 

He was miscast as a nose tackle in Houston’s defensive scheme but is at his best when penetrating into the backfield. Both Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott attended Oliver’s pro day workout at Houston. It was one of just two pro days McDermott attended this year. If Oliver is available at No. 9, he will be tough to pass up. Brugler rates him as the No. 5 prospect in this draft and describes Oliver as an “ideal one-gap penetrator due to his athleticism, instincts and relentless nature, projecting best when he is lined up closest to the football.”

 

McD at the Owners Meeting: 

 

"Yeah that's big. That's really big. To be able to get pressure from the inside... you know, people would argue that there's ways to take away the edge rusher more than there is ways to take away the inside, the interior rusher, and I would probably agree. The ability to pressure an effective quarterback from the inside out is critical when you want to play good football on defense. So, you've got to make sure that you've got enough of those guys."

 

Write up of the McD & Johnson Defense

 

In McDermott’s system — like most 4-3 alignments — the defensive line is unleashed on the opponent’s backfield (and quarterback) in a relentless one-gap onslaught. There’s little to no two-gapping for defensive linemen.

 

McDermott’s (and originally Johnson’s) idea is that quick penetration into the opponent’s backfield from any one of the defensive linemen is the fastest and most efficient way to disrupt the offense. This scheme doesn’t “protect” linebackers against pulling guards. It’s designed to stop run plays before the pulling guard’s block can have an effect at the second level.

The only problem is: How high will Oliver go? Recent rumors indicate that the Jets are interested at #3. Even if that's just a smokescreen to get someone to trade up, you have to think they're not going to let the division rival Bills be the trade partner. And even if they were, are people prepared to see the Bills part with, say, our 1st and 2nd this year AND our 1st next year? That's the type of ammo we'd need to get that high. I'm not saying I would or wouldn't do it, only that that's a lot of ammo to part with for one player.

[416BillsFan]

Thanks for posting OP. I like the idea of FINALLY having a great TE. Curious if Detroit takes him before us, or if they're still feeling burned by the Ebron pick.

[glazeduck]

Interesting article...

 

Extremely well researched and detail-oriented, yet -- as others have said -- feels like they're trying to build evidence to one or two specific things and then, don't ever get there, use really inconsistent logic and provide a conclusion that feels almost entirely arbitrary -- as though the thousands of words spent in all of the analysis were completely wasted (spoiler: they were). It's funny to me, too that (unmentioned, literally anywhere) everyone just kind of assumes that Beane and McD will just follow their same trend every year and not eventually treat the draft like a poker game and go away from their trends.

 

What this all says to me is 2 main things:

1. Overall, we're in a great spot. We have minimal needs, lots of flexibility, lots of outs. We're seemingly talking to teams ahead and behind us, we're talking about trading for veteran players, etc.

2. As it relates to predicting specific players, really all we're left with is the larger data of who we've met with and worked out (quite a few names) and a sketch of roster strength and depth -- all of which has been talked ad nauseum -- biggest needs 3T, TE, alpha WR, DE, OT, youth at RB, etc.

[Reed83HOF]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

The only problem is: How high will Oliver go? Recent rumors indicate that the Jets are interested at #3. Even if that's just a smokescreen to get someone to trade up, you have to think they're not going to let the division rival Bills be the trade partner. And even if they were, are people prepared to see the Bills part with, say, our 1st and 2nd this year AND our 1st next year? That's the type of ammo we'd need to get that high. I'm not saying I would or wouldn't do it, only that that's a lot of ammo to part with for one player.

 

I'm thinking right around pick #5, which should be palatable; I would be shocked to see us go higher than that. If for any reason we went higher that should tell you how they feel about the talent drop off and where they see the roster overall. Obviously our ability to maneuver to get him will be based on finding a dance partner who is reasonable. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

We're likely going to move up if at all possible and reasonable.  The worry is that, as some have suggested, we'll trade next years number one.  Please don't!