Who are the Bills' most likely picks at 9? (Excellent Cover 1 article, now unlocked)

[Allen2Moulds]

Great read,  thanks for posting. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

10 hours ago, Logic said:

If any of you are unfamiliar with Erik Turner and his Cover 1 website, let me just say: Climb out from under your rock, because this is some of the best Bills coverage on the planet.

Cover 1 has a great deep dive into who the Bills are most likely to take in round 1 if they stay at pick 9. They look at all the Bills' official visits, Beane and McDermott's draft history, and so on. It's about as thorough of an investigation into this topic as you'll find. Until today, the article was locked and available to members only. No more. The article is now unlocked and available for all. I'm not gonna paste much of the article because I want to get these guys clicks. They deserve them. Below is a small introductory snippet, but I suggest you all click the link and read all the way through.

Outstanding work as usual here by the Cover 1 crew.

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-2019-nfl-draft-first-round-pick-predictions/

The 2019 NFL Draft is right around the corner. According to Bills GM Brandon Beane, the draft board — typically consisting of 115-140 players — should be set by Wednesday, April 17, 2019. This means the team will have met with a majority of the prospects at some point this draft season. While not all of the visits are disclosed by the team, players, or agents, a majority of them are leaked in some manner. So based on my extensive research, let’s analyze the visits on page one. I’ll then share who I think the Bills will ultimately choose in round one on page two.

I think Hock is going to the Lions. Lotsa smoke there. The good news is that if the Jags go Jawaan Taylor as widely expected, Oliver (Q. Williams - small chance) shd be available at 9. 

 

 

[Manther]

9 hours ago, JM57 said:

This keeps coming up on the board and the question that never gets answered is "who comes off the field when they go to nickel?"

 

I can't find the percentage anywhere but I bet the Bills were in nickel/dime looks close to half of their defensive snaps. Which one of the 3 is missing half the snaps then?

Milano comes off.  It’s an easy choice.  And, one of the three will get hurt at some point in some season.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

48 hrs

[chris heff]

3 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

48 hrs

More like 60hrs

[JM57]

13 minutes ago, Manther said:

Milano comes off.  It’s an easy choice.  And, one of the three will get hurt at some point in some season.

Just my opinion, White's going to be a very good player, but that's a luxury pick and not smart to double up on LB in two consecutive years. 

 

As mentioned elsewhere, it's obvious Beane and McDermott think Josh Allen is The Guy, right? Otherwise why draft him. So operating from that, it's always best to maximize that first competitive window where your young QB is cheap and you can spend premium money elsewhere. To maximize that window, your offense has to be as good as possible to allow the young QB to succeed. They haven't finished the offense. If they keep building the defense first, they're going to waste that first window. 

[Maynard]

Great stuff. I want Oliver, but if he’s gone Hock would be my choice! 

[Nihilarian]

Good stuff, thanks for posting!

[DCbillsfan]

10 hours ago, Turk71 said:

He thinks Devin White is not an option because he plays MLB and the Bills have Edmunds. Edmunds played OLB in college and I think he would be very effective outside. White in the middle and Edmunds and Milano outside would be a top LB trio for many years to come.

IIRC White can play all 3 LB positions, is a 3 down backer, can cover, and rush the QB.  Seems to me he would be on the Bills short list.

[DCOrange]

10 hours ago, JM57 said:

This keeps coming up on the board and the question that never gets answered is "who comes off the field when they go to nickel?"

 

I can't find the percentage anywhere but I bet the Bills were in nickel/dime looks close to half of their defensive snaps. Which one of the 3 is missing half the snaps then?

 

I don't necessarily think it's wise to draft another LB so high despite believing that taking advantage of Edmunds' versatility would be better than simply playing him at MLB, but having said...

 

I did my best to determine the snap counts from the 3 LBs when all 3 were healthy and it looks like when all 3 were healthy, they played the following percentage of defensive snaps (ignoring special teams):

 

Edmunds: 99%

Milano: 90%

Lorax: 52%

 

So while Lorax was obviously used significantly less, he was still playing over half the defensive snaps.

 

So again, I don't necessarily think it would be wise to take another LB that high, but they could still make it work with Edmunds, Milano, and White/Bush all playing the majority of snaps.

 

 

Other thoughts on the article:

 

It's a good read, but as others pointed out, kinda weird that he just assumes Hockenson came in for a visit so that he can make him the choice while still fitting the main criteria, which is that every player they've drafted in the 1st has come in for an official visit.

 

It is very likely that Hockenson has been visiting with teams on the down low, but we simply don't know who those teams are. It might include the Bills but it might not.

Edited April 23, 2019 by DCOrange

[billsbackto81]

10 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Assuming Oliver and Q Williams are gone, if Devin White is there at #9, you take him.

If they're going by BPA then absolutely.

[YoloinOhio]

11 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I don't necessarily think it's wise to draft another LB so high despite believing that taking advantage of Edmunds' versatility would be better than simply playing him at MLB, but having said...

 

I did my best to determine the snap counts from the 3 LBs when all 3 were healthy and it looks like when all 3 were healthy, they played the following percentage of defensive snaps (ignoring special teams):

 

Edmunds: 99%

Milano: 90%

Lorax: 52%

 

So while Lorax was obviously used significantly less, he was still playing over half the defensive snaps.

 

So again, I don't necessarily think it would be wise to take another LB that high, but they could still make it work with Edmunds, Milano, and White/Bush all playing the majority of snaps.

 

 

Other thoughts on the article:

 

It's a good read, but as others pointed out, kinda weird that he just assumes Hockenson came in for a visit so that he can make him the choice while still fitting the main criteria, which is that every player they've drafted in the 1st has come in for an official visit.

 

It is very likely that Hockenson has been visiting with teams on the down low, but we simply don't know who those teams are. It might include the Bills but it might not.

I didn’t get the impression that he assumed he came in so that he could make him the choice. I too have surmised that he may have visited. There is nothing to suggest that he didn’t. So you can’t count him out if that equation, is what he’s saying. Plus matched up with where most have him ranked and their need at the position. He actually doesn’t think he’s their first choice at 9. He thinks he will be their BPA there and that he would be the pick if that happened. But if Oliver or Quinnen and Hock are there, he wouldn’t be.

 

the agent is someone i heard interviewed after Hyde signed and he also represents George Kittle. He is a very behind the scenes guy who loves the Bills as a landing spot for the guys he represents. His words. 

Edited April 23, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[FLFan]

10 hours ago, Turk71 said:

He thinks Devin White is not an option because he plays MLB and the Bills have Edmunds. Edmunds played OLB in college and I think he would be very effective outside. White in the middle and Edmunds and Milano outside would be a top LB trio for many years to come.

Despite that fact that many fans cannot seem to get switching Edmunds position out of their heads, Turner is right about this.  The Bills love Edmunds at MLB and are not drafting his replacement.  Silly talk.

[Tsaikotic]

1 hour ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

Gun to head it's between Andre Dillard and Christian Wilkins 

 

if either are there in the mid 20's, I could see bills moving back into rd 1 for them

 

39 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I don't necessarily think it's wise to draft another LB so high despite believing that taking advantage of Edmunds' versatility would be better than simply playing him at MLB, but having said...

 

I did my best to determine the snap counts from the 3 LBs when all 3 were healthy and it looks like when all 3 were healthy, they played the following percentage of defensive snaps (ignoring special teams):

 

Edmunds: 99%

Milano: 90%

Lorax: 52%

 

So while Lorax was obviously used significantly less, he was still playing over half the defensive snaps.

 

So again, I don't necessarily think it would be wise to take another LB that high, but they could still make it work with Edmunds, Milano, and White/Bush all playing the majority of snaps.

 

 

Other thoughts on the article:

 

It's a good read, but as others pointed out, kinda weird that he just assumes Hockenson came in for a visit so that he can make him the choice while still fitting the main criteria, which is that every player they've drafted in the 1st has come in for an official visit.

 

It is very likely that Hockenson has been visiting with teams on the down low, but we simply don't know who those teams are. It might include the Bills but it might not.

 

is that 52% all at OLB or is he playing DE in some of that 52%?

Edited April 23, 2019 by Tsaikotic

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, Tsaikotic said:

 

if either are there in the mid 20's, I could see bills moving back into rd 1 for them

 

 

is that 52% all at OLB or is he playing DE in some of that 52%?

 

Presumably some DE in there, but I think Edmunds could and should take some of those snaps once Lorax is gone.

[JM57]

49 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I don't necessarily think it's wise to draft another LB so high despite believing that taking advantage of Edmunds' versatility would be better than simply playing him at MLB, but having said...

 

I did my best to determine the snap counts from the 3 LBs when all 3 were healthy and it looks like when all 3 were healthy, they played the following percentage of defensive snaps (ignoring special teams):

 

Edmunds: 99%

Milano: 90%

Lorax: 52%

 

So while Lorax was obviously used significantly less, he was still playing over half the defensive snaps.

 

So again, I don't necessarily think it would be wise to take another LB that high, but they could still make it work with Edmunds, Milano, and White/Bush all playing the majority of snaps.

 

 

Other thoughts on the article:

 

It's a good read, but as others pointed out, kinda weird that he just assumes Hockenson came in for a visit so that he can make him the choice while still fitting the main criteria, which is that every player they've drafted in the 1st has come in for an official visit.

 

It is very likely that Hockenson has been visiting with teams on the down low, but we simply don't know who those teams are. It might include the Bills but it might not.

Let's put it this way in regards to Hockenson....what are the odds that the Bills had a private workout for Noah Fant and the WR from Iowa, Nick Easley, and didn't work out Hockenson while they were in town?

[DCOrange]

5 minutes ago, JM57 said:

Let's put it this way in regards to Hockenson....what are the odds that the Bills had a private workout for Noah Fant and the WR from Iowa, Nick Easley, and didn't work out Hockenson while they were in town?

 

The workouts that Turner is referring to would have taken place in Buffalo so you're talking about something else.

Edited April 23, 2019 by DCOrange

[NewEra]

The more that we realize Oliver won’t be available at 9, the more we realize Hockenson is our best bet.  And then we can watch as we take Christian Wilkins (who I don’t dislike)

[JM57]

6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

The workouts that Turner is referring to would have taken place in Buffalo so you're talking about something else.

The Bills brass flew to Wyoming for Allen's private workout last year. We didn't know it happened until after they picked him, but they definitely went to him. 

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The more that we realize Oliver won’t be available at 9, the more we realize Hockenson is our best bet.  And then we can watch as we take Christian Wilkins (who I don’t dislike)

I don't dislike Wilkins as a player. I do dislike that he'll be 24 before this season ends. That means he's signing his second deal at 28. Some guys are signing their second deal at the age he's being drafted at.

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Quote

He (Hockenson ) is as reliable as they come as a receiver, only dropping two passes his entire career, and Allen could use that type of crutch early in his career.

Sign me up.

Edited April 23, 2019 by gregor7777