Interesting thought on Hock & the Bills on Twitter

[BruceVilanch]

11 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

But how the hell do you know that?  If you knew Gronk and Gates would be those players, they won’t have gone top 10?  Do Kittles or Kelce not go in the 3rd round and go top 10 if you knew how good they were?

At the same point, Julio Jones had less tds than Ridley.  Sometimes, a great player draws coverages away to make things easier for another player.  Honestly, I don’t have an idea who is necessarily the better player but some stats can be misleading. 

Eric Moulds made Peerless Price's career because he was drawing doubles. Peerless then proceeded to flame out in ATL.

[Buffalo716]

57 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I think Bills fans just don't get how a tight end can be graded so highly by so many as just about every site I look at has Hock as a top ten prospect and most have him in the top six. 

 

The reason for this high grade is because he doesn't just block people...he pancakes them or treats them like rag dolls. He is an elite blocker!  Just like what made Josh Allen stand out so much was because it was like watching a man play against boys or like a eighth graders playing against a senior.

 

Then, the kid catches everything thrown his way...as he dropped only one pass out of 49. This alone would would make him special in Buffalo as Clay only caught 58% of the passes thrown his way. Just to give a comparison his teammate at Iowa, Noah Fant dropped 15%.

 

Like Hockenson, Gronk was graded as the best TE in the draft. However, even if he had no red flags due to injury he wouldn't have graded as a top ten pick. Those red flags were considerable as he he missed three games in 2008 due to back problems and missed the entire 2009 season due to back surgery. Some teams didn't even have him on their boards due to durability concerns. The Patriots also hedged their bets by drafting Aaron Hernandez in the same draft and his issues were failing up to five drug tests at Florida.

 

  He wasn't considered a generational talent at his position like some think TJ Hockenson is... https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/3/25/18278845/2019-nfl-scouting-report-tj-hockenson

We can agree to disagree 

 

I think he is a really good football player but I wouldn’t say generational... that term is tossed around too loosely 

 

A generational talent is a sure fire all pro / hall of famer

 

Neither of which he is... he is a really good football player who should and will go earlier in the first 

 

There are some who don’t even think he’s the best TE at Iowa.. so he is hardly a generational player

 

i understand he is a mauling blocker with soft hands that doesn’t mean you just walk into the NFL and become an All Pro

 

depending how the board falls I would take him at 9 so I’m not saying he’s a scrub.. there are better defensive players that could possibly fall that I would target over him though 

Edited April 23, 2019 by Buffalo716

[GunnerBill]

@JM57 asked me after a discussion in the shout box to elucidate on what I had on Hock and this thread seemed like a suitable thread in which to do it. My scouting notes on Hock are typed up below"

 

Pros:

- all round solid tight end;

- very good soft hands;

- impressive get off both in terms of running routes and in terms of getting the initial punch as a blocker;

- effective after the catch and hard to bring down;

- demonstrates an understanding of blocking schemes and was used in a variety of ways;

- finishes his blocks;

- 100% effort every play.

 

Cons:

- only average speed for the position;

- struggles to create separation through his route running;

- doesn't high point the football consistently when catching it, could use his body better to wall off defensive backs;

- struggles to block anyone with speed. Hands tend to start too wide and doesn't have a quick step adjustment;

- lacks a truly elite trait. 

 

So to me that is a guy I would consider taking later in the first round and I would love to have early in the 2nd round. Which is precisely why I have him graded as that borderline guy. I think he can be a plug and play starter for a team at tight end and have a good solid 6-10 year career there. But I don't see an elite difference maker and for me to give a tight end a pure first round grade, or even more so a top 10 grade, I have to believe I see that elite potential. 

 

Then we come to the tricky question of pro comparison. I am not big into the pro comparison thing in general but I get asked about it a lot for players and I have seen all sorts of names thrown about for Hock - Gronk, Kelce, Witten...... my pro comparison is a little more modest - Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph was drafted early in the 2nd round back in 2011 and in an 8 year career has scored 41 touchdowns (just better than 5 a year), been an effective run blocker both for AP and then Delvin Cook and in the seasons where he has stayed healthy has put up somewhere between 450 and 850 receiving yards. Also worth saying his receiving production has not been helped by a less than stellar list of Quarterbacks: Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins.  To me that is where I see Hock.... in the 600-800 yards receiving and 4 or 5 touchdowns a year range most years while helping out as a blocker at the same time. 

 

Of the bigger name comparisons I do see Jason Witten. Witten was a third rounder back in 2003 and in 15 years averages just over 4.5 touchdowns a season and around 800 yards. He has had 4 1,000 yard seasons in 15 years - his first of which came in his 5th year in the league. Now if you ask looking back "would Jason Witten of been worth a first round pick?" of course the answer is yes. But the period of his career where he was a true elite difference maker was a short spell in the middle and it is precisely because you can find guys like Witten later in the draft that you have to be convinced a guy is that elite difference maker and is capable of being it early in order to make him worth a 1st. Witten is a future HoFer but part of that is his incredible longevity and I don't think you can sensibly draft a non-Quarterback and say "he is going to play for 15 years". 

 

Essentially my conclusion is even if I am willing to put Hockenson somewhere between Kyle Rudolph as a floor and Jason Witten as a ceiling that does not make me reconsider the grade I have given him. 

 

I do not think Hockenson is going to be a bust. Far from it - I think he is a pretty safe pick. My doubts are whether he will ever be a star.

[BillsFan1988]

16 hours ago, golfball323 said:

Personally I think it's time for Murph to move on. Might just be me but I'm getting a "too big for his britches" feeling from listening to him lately... Maybe I'm just getting old

Murphy & Tasker the worst combo I ever heard in sports radio history i get nervous the brief times that I listen. To make things worse they will host the first round of the draft. U couldn't find 2 guys that had less knowledge of the draft then these 2 guys. Wgr and the Bills should of at least put CB, Joe B and Sal with them.  I mean it's the draft we need guys that know what there talking about. 

[JM57]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

@JM57 asked me after a discussion in the shout box to elucidate on what I had on Hock and this thread seemed like a suitable thread in which to do it. My scouting notes on Hock are typed up below"

 

Pros:

- all round solid tight end;

- very good soft hands;

- impressive get off both in terms of running routes and in terms of getting the initial punch as a blocker;

- effective after the catch and hard to bring down;

- demonstrates an understanding of blocking schemes and was used in a variety of ways;

- finishes his blocks;

- 100% effort every play.

 

Cons:

- only average speed for the position;

- struggles to create separation through his route running;

- doesn't high point the football consistently when catching it, could use his body better to wall off defensive backs;

- struggles to block anyone with speed. Hands tend to start too wide and doesn't have a quick step adjustment;

- lacks a truly elite trait. 

 

So to me that is a guy I would consider taking later in the first round and I would love to have early in the 2nd round. Which is precisely why I have him graded as that borderline guy. I think he can be a plug and play starter for a team at tight end and have a good solid 6-10 year career there. But I don't see an elite difference maker and for me to give a tight end a pure first round grade, or even more so a top 10 grade, I have to believe I see that elite potential. 

 

Then we come to the tricky question of pro comparison. I am not big into the pro comparison thing in general but I get asked about it a lot for players and I have seen all sorts of names thrown about for Hock - Gronk, Kelce, Witten...... my pro comparison is a little more modest - Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph was drafted early in the 2nd round back in 2011 and in an 8 year career has scored 41 touchdowns (just better than 5 a year), been an effective run blocker both for AP and then Delvin Cook and in the seasons where he has stayed healthy has put up somewhere between 450 and 850 receiving yards. Also worth saying his receiving production has not been helped by a less than stellar list of Quarterbacks: Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins.  To me that is where I see Hock.... in the 600-800 yards receiving and 4 or 5 touchdowns a year range most years while helping out as a blocker at the same time. 

 

Of the bigger name comparisons I do see Jason Witten. Witten was a third rounder back in 2003 and in 15 years averages just over 4.5 touchdowns a season and around 800 yards. He has had 4 1,000 yard seasons in 15 years - his first of which came in his 5th year in the league. Now if you ask looking back "would Jason Witten of been worth a first round pick?" of course the answer is yes. But the period of his career where he was a true elite difference maker was a short spell in the middle and it is precisely because you can find guys like Witten later in the draft that you have to be convinced a guy is that elite difference maker and is capable of being it early in order to make him worth a 1st. Witten is a future HoFer but part of that is his incredible longevity and I don't think you can sensibly draft a non-Quarterback and say "he is going to play for 15 years". 

 

Essentially my conclusion is even if I am willing to put Hockenson somewhere between Kyle Rudolph as a floor and Jason Witten as a ceiling that does not make me reconsider the grade I have given him. 

 

I do not think Hockenson is going to be a bust. Far from it - I think he is a pretty safe pick. My doubts are whether he will ever be a star.

Much appreciated. You're much more modest on your evaluation of him than many of the big time analysts, but I think that's a good thing. If the big time analysts are writing their reports and hyping his ceiling, I think you've done a good job with seeing his floor. 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

I don’t think either are on the board at 9 unless Detroit trades out of 8 with Carolina who love Dillard.

 

 

[billsredneck1]

16 hours ago, golfball323 said:

Personally I think it's time for Murph to move on. Might just be me but I'm getting a "too big for his britches" feeling from listening to him lately... Maybe I'm just getting old

i love that show.  i think murph does a great job with show prep and with guests on the show....then again , maybe it's because he's working with tasker who sounds like he's got the cocaine drip sniffles working.  however, it's my fave 3hrs. during the week days.

[billsredneck1]

16 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

I just don't recall last year. I remember Allbright on Allen, but that is it. I let those memories go LOL

 

I don't listen to Murph & Tasker at all really and Chris Brown not so much either. I'm just not a fan of official Team "Journalists"/PR personnel. 

i used to be down on the company station guys, especially chris brown when they had to talk up the whaley/brandon/rex era.

now that we have a great front office, it's very enjoyable.  they have a ton of national guests on and murph does a great job with his questions.

 

chris brown is much better than before, especially with his x's and o's.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

i love that show.  i think murph does a great job with show prep and with guests on the show....then again , maybe it's because he's working with tasker who sounds like he's got the cocaine drip sniffles working.  however, it's my fave 3hrs. during the week days.

 

I think Murph gets good guests. I don't listen as much anymore because since GDPR getting a stream of WGR in the UK is harder and also the time change - I used to listen to the first hour as I got in bed - but he can be a bit of a leading questions interviewer where he gives his opinion then asks them to agree....

[billsredneck1]

16 hours ago, the skycap said:

Murph and Tasker was high on Metcalf. I also heard Lorax mention him as an explosive, game changing prospect. Was just listening to Eric Moulds on their show and he said the #1 thing he'd want to see from a prospect was their release of the line. Said you can teach route running. 

i heard all that. however, they've also stated how air tight the place is and that they never hear anyone even hint a thing to them about personnel....and i believe it.

besides, the fo i'm sure has at least 9 different scenarios on who might be there at 9 and who knows how things will play out from the 1st pick on.

they don't know any more than any of us.

[eball]

15 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

 

Only a Bills fan could think that Riemersma ever exceeded "average"!

 

Or was "dynamic"  

[Canadian Bills Fan]

13 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Only broadcaster on WGR that picked Allen

 

 

Good for him.

 

I predicted they would take Allen too.

 

Doesn't mean the Bills FO feeds me inside info

[Nihilarian]

6 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

We can agree to disagree 

 

I think he is a really good football player but I wouldn’t say generational... that term is tossed around too loosely 

 

A generational talent is a sure fire all pro / hall of famer

 

Neither of which he is... he is a really good football player who should and will go earlier in the first 

 

There are some who don’t even think he’s the best TE at Iowa.. so he is hardly a generational player

 

i understand he is a mauling blocker with soft hands that doesn’t mean you just walk into the NFL and become an All Pro

 

depending how the board falls I would take him at 9 so I’m not saying he’s a scrub.. there are better defensive players that could possibly fall that I would target over him though 

I'm not here to force my will on anyone as I just want to point out some observations. Just like I did last year pre draft with Josh Allen...as most fans here hated that choice.

 

One of the things that bothered me the most about the Bills last season was the top two Buffalo Bills receiving targets who had the dropsies all season. I couldn't figure out why either one of these two players were constantly targeted. 2018 Buffalo Bills leading receiver target, yards wise, Zay Jones 102 pass targets, 56 receptions for a 54.9 catch percentage. Yikes! Second in targets was Kelvin Benjamin, 62 targets, 23 receptions for a 37.1 catch percentage. 85 passes, really? 

 

Then you look at TJ Hockenson who dropped a total of only two passes his entire two year career at Iowa. 

 

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-2019-nfl-draft-first-round-pick-predictions/2/

 

That article from another thread gives some insight into who the Buffalo Bills could be looking at @ #9.

 

Chris Trapasso calls Hockenson a destroyer of worlds, https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2019-nfl-draft-iowas-t-j-hockenson-is-destroyer-of-worlds-as-a-blocker-dynamic-pass-catcher/

 

NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks lists Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson is one of the "gold jacket" prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft class. https://www.rotoworld.com/college-football/nfl-draft/player/39502/tj-hockenson

 

 

Another thing, I wouldn't be surprised if Hock is gone before #9 to the Jags or Lions. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots attempt to trade up to draft the kid. 

[FLFan]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

@JM57 asked me after a discussion in the shout box to elucidate on what I had on Hock and this thread seemed like a suitable thread in which to do it. My scouting notes on Hock are typed up below"

 

Pros:

- all round solid tight end;

- very good soft hands;

- impressive get off both in terms of running routes and in terms of getting the initial punch as a blocker;

- effective after the catch and hard to bring down;

- demonstrates an understanding of blocking schemes and was used in a variety of ways;

- finishes his blocks;

- 100% effort every play.

 

Cons:

- only average speed for the position;

- struggles to create separation through his route running;

- doesn't high point the football consistently when catching it, could use his body better to wall off defensive backs;

- struggles to block anyone with speed. Hands tend to start too wide and doesn't have a quick step adjustment;

- lacks a truly elite trait. 

 

So to me that is a guy I would consider taking later in the first round and I would love to have early in the 2nd round. Which is precisely why I have him graded as that borderline guy. I think he can be a plug and play starter for a team at tight end and have a good solid 6-10 year career there. But I don't see an elite difference maker and for me to give a tight end a pure first round grade, or even more so a top 10 grade, I have to believe I see that elite potential. 

 

Then we come to the tricky question of pro comparison. I am not big into the pro comparison thing in general but I get asked about it a lot for players and I have seen all sorts of names thrown about for Hock - Gronk, Kelce, Witten...... my pro comparison is a little more modest - Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph was drafted early in the 2nd round back in 2011 and in an 8 year career has scored 41 touchdowns (just better than 5 a year), been an effective run blocker both for AP and then Delvin Cook and in the seasons where he has stayed healthy has put up somewhere between 450 and 850 receiving yards. Also worth saying his receiving production has not been helped by a less than stellar list of Quarterbacks: Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins.  To me that is where I see Hock.... in the 600-800 yards receiving and 4 or 5 touchdowns a year range most years while helping out as a blocker at the same time. 

 

Of the bigger name comparisons I do see Jason Witten. Witten was a third rounder back in 2003 and in 15 years averages just over 4.5 touchdowns a season and around 800 yards. He has had 4 1,000 yard seasons in 15 years - his first of which came in his 5th year in the league. Now if you ask looking back "would Jason Witten of been worth a first round pick?" of course the answer is yes. But the period of his career where he was a true elite difference maker was a short spell in the middle and it is precisely because you can find guys like Witten later in the draft that you have to be convinced a guy is that elite difference maker and is capable of being it early in order to make him worth a 1st. Witten is a future HoFer but part of that is his incredible longevity and I don't think you can sensibly draft a non-Quarterback and say "he is going to play for 15 years". 

 

Essentially my conclusion is even if I am willing to put Hockenson somewhere between Kyle Rudolph as a floor and Jason Witten as a ceiling that does not make me reconsider the grade I have given him. 

 

I do not think Hockenson is going to be a bust. Far from it - I think he is a pretty safe pick. My doubts are whether he will ever be a star.

My hope, and my belief, is that the Bills at looking at this the same way.  Not worth number 9.  If they end up trading back, maybe, depending on how far.  

[JaCrispy]

2 hours ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

 

 

Good for him.

 

I predicted they would take Allen too.

 

Doesn't mean the Bills FO feeds me inside info

Not saying it’s true, but I could definitely understand if he was having casual conversations with friends in the building about the direction the team was leaning....not really out of the realm of possibility.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Not saying it’s true, but I could definitely understand if he was having casual conversations with friends in the building about the direction the team was leaning....not really out of the realm of possibility.

 

I guess but I don't see it.

 

It would be like Van Miller back in the day leaking draft news. I just don't know how much stock I would put into it

[HeHateMe]

We need to get with the times and grab a TE early.  Hock is my guy at 9 but I don't think we take him unfortunately.  

 

The guy has great hands and is a stud blocker who never has to come off the field.  

[Reed83HOF]

3 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

i used to be down on the company station guys, especially chris brown when they had to talk up the whaley/brandon/rex era.

now that we have a great front office, it's very enjoyable.  they have a ton of national guests on and murph does a great job with his questions.

 

chris brown is much better than before, especially with his x's and o's.

 

I mean way back in the day, yeah I used to listen to what they said, but always took it with a grain of salt. If they are getting paychecks from the team, it is hard to be fair and objective. This won't be a popular opinion, but I did like Sully at times because on occasion he was correct (other times yeah it was a bit much). I like to be balanced - read and get a grasp of the good and bad, which you often don't get from the team. I follow Brown on twitter and will peruse his Friday mailbag or other things that are interesting...

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

I'm not here to force my will on anyone as I just want to point out some observations. Just like I did last year pre draft with Josh Allen...as most fans here hated that choice.

 

One of the things that bothered me the most about the Bills last season was the top two Buffalo Bills receiving targets who had the dropsies all season. I couldn't figure out why either one of these two players were constantly targeted. 2018 Buffalo Bills leading receiver target, yards wise, Zay Jones 102 pass targets, 56 receptions for a 54.9 catch percentage. Yikes! Second in targets was Kelvin Benjamin, 62 targets, 23 receptions for a 37.1 catch percentage. 85 passes, really? 

 

Then you look at TJ Hockenson who dropped a total of only two passes his entire two year career at Iowa. 

 

https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-2019-nfl-draft-first-round-pick-predictions/2/

 

That article from another thread gives some insight into who the Buffalo Bills could be looking at @ #9.

 

Chris Trapasso calls Hockenson a destroyer of worlds, https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2019-nfl-draft-iowas-t-j-hockenson-is-destroyer-of-worlds-as-a-blocker-dynamic-pass-catcher/

 

NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks lists Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson is one of the "gold jacket" prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft class. https://www.rotoworld.com/college-football/nfl-draft/player/39502/tj-hockenson

 

 

Another thing, I wouldn't be surprised if Hock is gone before #9 to the Jags or Lions. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots attempt to trade up to draft the kid. 

 

Is Hockenson going to get 100 targets?  If not, he shouldn't be drafted in the top 10.

[Bangarang]

Just say no to Hock at 9.