Joe Marino (Locked on Bills): Two names he is hearing in 1st for Bills: Jonah Williams, DK Metcalf

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

The sample size for that success is very small.

 

He had 26 catches last year and 20 of those 26 came against TTU?, SIU, Kent and ULM.  6 combined against Alabama, LSU and Arkansas.  I don’t know who TTU is, but I know Southern Illinois, Kent and Louisiana Monroe are not good competition against and SEC team.

Agreed and I remember Richie Lucas.

I listen to Chris Simms regularly because his understanding of the game goes way beyond most fans...he's really good at watching the film and letting you know what's really happening and I learn quite a lot. A line he always throws out there when talking about DK is "damn, sometimes I wondered if their coaching staff was trying to lose the game. It's like they don't know DK Metcalf and AJ Brown are their best players." He also takes issue with their QB from the tape.

 

I've seen Yolo here on The Wall talk about how you have to be careful with production with college wide receivers because it's a dependent position- the system, playcalls, quarterback and O-line need to do their job for WRs to have a chance. It might be the most dependent position and therefore is the position most requiring CONTEXT in an evaluation rather than just statsheet scouting. It really takes grinding the tape (which I myself do not do) to get a true picture.

 

Lastly, we might want to keep in mind that DK was 20 years old this season. Awhile back someone posted comparisons of DK's production at age 19 and 20 compared to Julio Jones (I think he was included), along with other WRs, at that same young age...and lo and behold, in this context Metcalf's production actually stacked right up. A lot of college players are a good deal older than that, for example Robert Foster is a year out and turns 25 in 2 weeks.

 

With his size and not only speed but crazy acceleration, along with nuanced technique to beat press, he can be a nightmare for CBs. The Bills don't have anyone like that. And not every WR wins the same way...Mike Evans doesn't have to run whip routes and triple breaks. Neither does DK

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said:

I listen to Chris Simms regularly because his understanding of the game goes way beyond most fans...he's really good at watching the film and letting you know what's really happening and I learn quite a lot. A line he always throws out there when talking about DK is "damn, sometimes I wondered if their coaching staff was trying to lose the game. It's like they don't know DK Metcalf and AJ Brown are their best players." He also takes issue with their QB from the tape.

 

I've seen Yolo here on The Wall talk about how you have to be careful with production with college wide receivers because it's a dependent position- the system, playcalls, quarterback and O-line need to do their job for WRs to have a chance. It might be the most dependent position and therefore is the position most requiring CONTEXT in an evaluation rather than just statsheet scouting. It really takes grinding the tape (which I myself do not do) to get a true picture.

 

Lastly, we might want to keep in mind that DK was 20 years old this season. Awhile back someone posted comparisons of DK's production at age 19 and 20 compared to Julio Jones (I think he was included), along with other WRs, at that same young age...and lo and behold, in this context Metcalf's production actually stacked right up. A lot of college players are a good deal older than that, for example Robert Foster is a year out and turns 25 in 2 weeks.

 

With his size and not only speed but crazy acceleration, along with nuanced technique to beat press, he can be a nightmare for CBs. The Bills don't have anyone like that. And not every WR wins the same way...Mike Evans doesn't have to run whip routes and triple breaks. Neither does DK

It’s so true - WR are often drafted on traits vs production because of the college QB variable. It’s extremely difficult to evaluate and project to the next level because they are so dependent on the QB. Film is one thing - you can at least see effort, routes, separation - stats are another. Stats are for college awards, not draft position. 

[FeelingOnYouboty]

I’m all about having fun and DK Metcalf with Josh Allen is fun. Sign me up!

[WideRightRevenge]

19 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

Dk was considered the top WR by many before the combine AND before the season. Combine warrior label is lazy analysis. 

 

Hey Chemical .. reading your threads .. you like DK ... more power to you .. but my "Lazy Analysis" .. appears to be supported by a few others.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2832576-all-sizzle-no-steak-dk-metcalf-is-a-1st-round-flop-waiting-to-happen

 

[Solomon Grundy]

8 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

Hey Chemical .. reading your threads .. you like DK ... more power to you .. but my "Lazy Analysis" .. appears to be supported by a few others.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2832576-all-sizzle-no-steak-dk-metcalf-is-a-1st-round-flop-waiting-to-happen

 

For every one of these negative reviews you find I can give you five positive ones.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-why-dk-metcalf-is-pffs-top-wide-receiver-in-the-2019-nfl-draft

[WideRightRevenge]

1 minute ago, the skycap said:

For every one of these negative reviews you find I can give you five positive ones.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-why-dk-metcalf-is-pffs-top-wide-receiver-in-the-2019-nfl-draft

 

It's a beauty pageant in the 1st round .. many different opinions .. mine .. I just prefer other options than DK (and really drafting a WR at 9 vs. DL or OL) and have flashbacks to other WR's who set combine records. 

 

Wide receivers

• John Ross, Washington, 2017: Ross is football’s fastest runner since laser timing, with a 4.22. He somehow did it while hurting himself.
• Chris Conley, Georgia, 2015: A bigger WR at 6’2, 213, Conley dropped a 4.35-second 40 and then tied the all-positions vert record (1.5 inches ahead of the next WR) and would’ve done the same in the broad, if not for UConn DB Byron Jones entering orbit. He’d been considered a late-rounder until this, then went to the Chiefs in the third.
• Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland, 2009: At 6’2, 210 pounds, he’s the biggest player to ever officially crack 4.3.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

23 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

Hey Chemical .. reading your threads .. you like DK ... more power to you .. but my "Lazy Analysis" .. appears to be supported by a few others.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2832576-all-sizzle-no-steak-dk-metcalf-is-a-1st-round-flop-waiting-to-happen

 

 

Oh you got your opinion from someone else? Even lazier!

 

ive seen that article. He glosses over the 2018 per-game production by saying he only had this many yards then got hurt. 

 

A lot of opinions on this thread are nuanced and informed on both sides. Don’t come in here with a two word dismissal of a player that has already been disputed back and forth many times over then try to say it’s not lazy by posting a link to bleacher report with no additional insight. 

7 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said:

 

It's a beauty pageant in the 1st round .. many different opinions .. mine .. I just prefer other options than DK (and really drafting a WR at 9 vs. DL or OL) and have flashbacks to other WR's who set combine records. 

 

Wide receivers

• John Ross, Washington, 2017: Ross is football’s fastest runner since laser timing, with a 4.22. He somehow did it while hurting himself.
• Chris Conley, Georgia, 2015: A bigger WR at 6’2, 213, Conley dropped a 4.35-second 40 and then tied the all-positions vert record (1.5 inches ahead of the next WR) and would’ve done the same in the broad, if not for UConn DB Byron Jones entering orbit. He’d been considered a late-rounder until this, then went to the Chiefs in the third.
• Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland, 2009: At 6’2, 210 pounds, he’s the biggest player to ever officially crack 4.3.

 

None of these players were considered first round picks before the combine. Metcalf was considered the top WR before last season and was on pace for elite production THEN he ran a 4.33 (somehow that’s a negative for some people)

Edited April 24, 2019 by Chemical

[WideRightRevenge]

Wow ... Chemical .. Eat a snickers ... let me get this straight ... you are indicating you can't read (or watch) mock drafts on TV this week and none have DK drafted by the Bills at 9 (Mel/Todd, NFL Network, etc.) in order to form an opinion ... do you sit in a cave without the internet and look skyward to form your opinions??

 

I say my preference to go elsewhere vs drafting your apparently favorite player of all time at #9, and reference his combine performance.  Unlike others I'm didn't think I had to type longwinded detail beyond that. 

 

Lighten up Francis

 

[Solomon Grundy]

5 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

Wow ... Chemical .. Eat a snickers ... let me get this straight ... you are indicating you can't read (or watch) mock drafts on TV this week and none have DK drafted by the Bills at 9 (Mel/Todd, NFL Network, etc.) in order to form an opinion ... do you sit in a cave without the internet and look skyward to form your opinions??

 

I say my preference to go elsewhere vs drafting your apparently favorite player of all time at #9, and reference his combine performance.  Unlike others I'm didn't think I had to type longwinded detail beyond that. 

 

Lighten up Francis

 

I don't think Mel/Todd/Bucky really did their homework on the Bills and Josh Allen. Allen strength is throwing the ball long, to the outside. Was weaker throwing to the middle of the field. Why would they target a TE to help Josh Allen? The Ed Oliver mock is basically to replace All Pro Kyle Williams. Yes, they need to address that position, but it's ALL ABOUT ALLEN. I like Khalen Saunders in the second and moving back up or acquiring a pick in rd 2 to get Zach Allen to address the defense. IMO, they can't pass on Metcalf.

[JM57]

8 minutes ago, the skycap said:

I don't think Mel/Todd/Bucky really did their homework on the Bills and Josh Allen. Allen strength is throwing the ball long, to the outside. Was weaker throwing to the middle of the field. Why would they target a TE to help Josh Allen? The Ed Oliver mock is basically to replace All Pro Kyle Williams. Yes, they need to address that position, but it's ALL ABOUT ALLEN. I like Khalen Saunders in the second and moving back up or acquiring a pick in rd 2 to get Zach Allen to address the defense. IMO, they can't pass on Metcalf.

If you know that Allen succeeded throwing deep and outside the numbers, guess who else does? Every single defensive coordinator in the league. And guess what the first thing they will scheme to take away is? The throws that he was good at.

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, JM57 said:

If you know that Allen succeeded throwing deep and outside the numbers, guess who else does? Every single defensive coordinator in the league. And guess what the first thing they will scheme to take away is? The throws that he was good at.

He DID succeed doing just that last season, didn't he?

[JM57]

47 minutes ago, the skycap said:

He DID succeed doing just that last season, didn't he?

Where are we going with this?

 

You said TE doesn't make sense because Allen succeeded with deep and outside the numbers throws. I said yeah, and now the coordinators in the league have the film on him and they'll game plan to take those throws away, so what now?

[Solomon Grundy]

The first Ole Miss receiver off the board should be A.J. Brown, who led the Rebels with 85 catches for 1,320 yards. But that doesn’t mean Metcalf isn’t worthy of a high pick. Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus makes a great case for Metcalf using advanced stats and plain logic. Metcalf averaged 2.83 receiving yards per route run last season, which isn’t as good as Brown (3.01) but better than Arizona State’s N’Keal Harry, a player everyone agrees was an excellent college receiver. Palazzolo also points out that even without great lateral mobility, Metcalf’s skill set remains extremely valuable. Assuming a team has other receivers capable of running crisp short routes—it’s the NFL; most do—Metcalf could still help by going straight down the field on every play. The corners who can run with him can’t outmuscle him, and the corners who can compete physically can’t outrun him. This means he can either get open or require enough help that he stretches the defense and allows more room for those teammates working underneath.

[KOKBILLS]

1 hour ago, the skycap said:

The first Ole Miss receiver off the board should be A.J. Brown, who led the Rebels with 85 catches for 1,320 yards. But that doesn’t mean Metcalf isn’t worthy of a high pick. Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus makes a great case for Metcalf using advanced stats and plain logic. Metcalf averaged 2.83 receiving yards per route run last season, which isn’t as good as Brown (3.01) but better than Arizona State’s N’Keal Harry, a player everyone agrees was an excellent college receiver. Palazzolo also points out that even without great lateral mobility, Metcalf’s skill set remains extremely valuable. Assuming a team has other receivers capable of running crisp short routes—it’s the NFL; most do—Metcalf could still help by going straight down the field on every play. The corners who can run with him can’t outmuscle him, and the corners who can compete physically can’t outrun him. This means he can either get open or require enough help that he stretches the defense and allows more room for those teammates working underneath.

 

 

Here's the analytics I can't get out of my mind concerning DK...

 

He's 6-3 3/8 - 228 - 4.33 Speed - 40.5 vertical - 27 Reps 

 

The average NFL CB is 5-11- 195 - 4.48 Speed - 36.25 Vertical - 15 Reps

 

Now...Numbers mean nothing unless you can apply them on the field...But those numbers are exactly why when DK was on the field...He was dominating...

 

You can't teach what he's got...You can teach what he's not yet...As long as you're not looking for him to be Cole Beasley...?

[Reed83HOF]

 

 

[KOKBILLS]

10 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

 

 

Sure...Sure he does...?

 

 

[Reed83HOF]

 

1 minute ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Sure...Sure he does...?

 

 

I did laugh when I read that LOL. The DK love is low today from the media...

[KOKBILLS]

1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

I did laugh when I read that LOL. The DK love is low today from the media...

 

That means to me that Beane is doing a hell of a good job... ?

[Lurker]

2 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Sure...Sure he does...?

 

Against UL-Monroe!!!   

 

Wow, I'm sure he'll see a lot of players at that level in the NFL on Sunday's...

 

(Don't like him, don't want him and will cry if they pick him)

 

 

[mannc]

15 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

 

Somehow, Metcalf's stock seems to have slipped in the last couple weeks.  Funny, I don't seem to recall Ol' Miss playing any games during that period.  Did he get injured?  Arrested?