ghostwriter Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 How do players like Trent Richardson go from being sure thing future HOFers to virtually out of the league in 2 or 3 years? How does this happen? How do these guys get the stamp of approval and the seal of perfection from GMs and pro scouts to out of the league in the blink of an eye? Do you guys see any projected top 15-20 pick in this year's draft that you feel may be out of the league in a few years? How and why does this happen?
The Wiz Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 In the simplest terms I can think of, their (scouts, coaches, etc) ego to be right will overshadow any doubts they have about a player.
Steve O Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 Drafting on the measurables instead of the un (or is it im?)measurables. 4
gobills1212 Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 Someone was wrong and the gane didnt translate or the kid couldnt get right. Im not sure there is some scientific formula to give you the answer in which you seek. We've seen enough here over the years - we should know
HOUSE Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 Imagine being 22 years old with 2 million in your bank amount. I would have been dead for sure. 3 2
ghostwriter Posted April 20, 2019 Author Posted April 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, The Wiz said: In the simplest terms I can think of, their (scouts, coaches, etc) ego to be right will overshadow any doubts they have about a player. Do you feel this is perpetuated by drafting for need and by over exaggerating potential because you direly need a player at that position?
BuffaloBill Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: How do players like Trent Richardson go from being sure thing future HOFers to virtually out of the league in 2 or 3 years? How does this happen? How do these guys get the stamp of approval and the seal of perfection from GMs and pro scouts to out of the league in the blink of an eye? Do you guys see any projected top 15-20 pick in this year's draft that you feel may be out of the league in a few years? How and why does this happen? Simple, you can’t truly predict motivation, competitiveness and the ability to adjust to the pro game. This is not unlike business. An Ivy League education with an advanced degree from a prestigious school does not equal success in business. There are many examples of people with much less of a pedigree who become wildly successful due to hard work, determination and natural ability that was not displayed in degrees. 3
BuffAlone Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said: Simple, you can’t truly predict motivation, competitiveness and the ability to adjust to the pro game. This is not unlike business. An Ivy League education with an advanced degree from a prestigious school does not equal success in business. There are many examples of people with much less of a pedigree who become wildly successful due to hard work, determination and natural ability that was not displayed in degrees. Well said
Albany,n.y. Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 Some, not all busts, are immature kids who cannot handle the demands of being a professional. The best examples are Jamarcus Russell & Ryan Leaf who did not take professionalism seriously. Both were out of shape almost immediately after their final college year ended. Russell was lazy & wouldn't study the playbook-the best story was the Raiders giving him blank tapes & him coming back telling them he watched the film that was on the tape. Leaf was more into himself than a team concept. The best story I heard on Leaf was after he was drafted he went to party in Vegas & when San Diego wanted him to showup for a press conference he told them they'd have to wait until he was done partying. The Leaf story I heard on the radio years ago when a former Charger employee (I forget what title he held or who it was) was asked when did you first get an indication that you made a mistake drafting Leaf. Leaf also showed bad signs at the combine. He came in overweight and blew off interviews with Indy because he didn't want them to draft him. Other guys just don't have the talent to adjust to the speed of the NFL. What makes scouting so tough is that these guys are playing against players who will never play ball again after college. The guys drafted by the NFL are men against boys in college. When it's all men against men they can't get the job done. I place a greater emphasis on games like the Senior Bowl where these players are playing against other players who have a future in the NFL. When all the film on a guy is him playing against future accountants, it's tough to evaluate his pro potential. The best ways to avoid a bust are 1)Talk with the player and those who know him like his coaches before the draft. If he shows any signs of not being totally dedicated to football, don't waste a high pick on him. 2) Don't get too enamored with as physical freak at the combine whose game film doesn't match the athleticism shown there. The best example in draft history is Mike Mamula. 3) Don't draft injury prone players, or guys who project to be so in the NFL. If the guy has missed significant playing time in multiple seasons he may bust in the NFL. The best examples of a player projecting to become injury prone in the NFL are QBs who take a lot of sacks in college because they hold onto the ball too long. A QB who will continuously get sacked more than most other QBs is going to have injury problems in the NFL. The best example is Rob Johnson. When the Bills 1st acquired him I read some scouting reports and one of my 1st posts after the trade was titled "Rob Johnson, The Sacked Man" 2 1
OldTimer1960 Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 Some have already provided a lot of good reasons, I’ll add: - undersized guys being projected to be able carry more who couldn’t maintain that weight - Guys who were using steroids in college and thus dominating at that level who couldn’t in the NFL (Tony Mandarich) But beyond that, it is just very very hard to evaluate these players in college due to uneven competition and offensive and defensive schemes that aren’t used as often in the NFL. How do you evaluate the players at Alabama and Clemson who have so much talent around them that they always get 1-1 assignments? Conversely, how do you evaluate guys who play well on bad teams? How do you evaluate a guy like Ed Oliver who had little talent around him and dominated while playing out of position- yet he didn’t play many (any?) games against top level college opponents and is undersized to boot? Will his game translate and allow him to continue to find success in the NFL or will he struggle against much bigger and stronger NFL competition?
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: In the simplest terms I can think of, their (scouts, coaches, etc) ego to be right will overshadow any doubts they have about a player. ...even simpler terms IMO.....need to invent the "Head 'N Heart Meter"...physical measurables and tape are a small part....once a lad is drafted and signed, is it "cashed and now coast"?...OR...does one's love for the game predominate, driving him to excel at the pro level despite a loaded wallet?.....unknowing health issues surfacing can also have a significant effect...may partially explain why a can't miss prospect ends up a bust.....invent THAT meter and you'd be an overnight billionaire IMO....
Boatdrinks Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 You can measure many things, but you still cannot measure the heart of a player. In some way, it always comes back to that.
Mrbojanglezs Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 Work ethic, maturity. Lot of these guys taken high were always best athlete on the field at every level, never had to make the next step against stiff competition, some just can't do it.
The Wiz Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 1 hour ago, NewDayBills said: Do you feel this is perpetuated by drafting for need and by over exaggerating potential because you direly need a player at that position? I would say over exaggerating potential. I would imagine the scouting staff aren't going to preach up and down that a guy you could get in the late 2nd, early 3rd should be a 1st round pick because of need. In that situation I feel they would go with BPA. In a case were a guy the staff is high on is out of range by less than 10 picks (say we are picking 40th and the big board has a guy around 50-52). The staff at that point would probably over exaggerate on potential if they felt they were absolutely right about a potential "steal" player. Granted the same could be said if a coach or GM overrule the consensus of the rest of the staff. It's kind of hard to describe since the way I explain it is easily torn apart in an argument but that's probably the best I got. 1
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Mrbojanglezs said: Work ethic, maturity. Lot of these guys taken high were always best athlete on the field at every level, never had to make the next step against stiff competition, some just can't do it. .....not sure work ethic and maturity in the collegiate ranks automatically translates to the NFL level in some cases....once the contract is inked and the wallet is loaded, things seem to change.....
RalphWilson'sNewWar Posted April 20, 2019 Posted April 20, 2019 2 hours ago, NewDayBills said: How do players like Trent Richardson go from being sure thing future HOFers to virtually out of the league in 2 or 3 years? How does this happen? How do these guys get the stamp of approval and the seal of perfection from GMs and pro scouts to out of the league in the blink of an eye? Do you guys see any projected top 15-20 pick in this year's draft that you feel may be out of the league in a few years? How and why does this happen? I feel it always starts with The Core Human need to feel in control. From psychology.com ”having a sense of control is so important that if we don’t have it, we make it up.” ”when people are made to feel as if they have no control they will literally see things that don’t exist, such as patterns where there are no patterns. A lack of control, they found in their experiments, actually increases the need to see structure and patterns. And where none exist, we will manufacture them.” I see this when Draft Experts, Scouts, GMs associate A college kids stats/numbers with an established NFL Stars Career/numbers. Then they go all around America proclaiming that SOandSO has the same metrics/numbers/style in college than this HOF...so this college player MUST be on the path to be just as good. fans eat it up and expect it. And when the new player doesn’t become the HOF that he was compared to it all starts to erode. Bottom Line: No one knows anything but uses only the available data to make a guess, but whencmaking a guess, says it in such a definitate way to make it appear pubically as a sure thing. 1
BillsfaninChicago Posted April 21, 2019 Posted April 21, 2019 (edited) Not sure what the science is behind it but I noticed many rookies that held out on their 1st contracts tended to be busts. JaMarcus Russle, Matt Lienhart and Aaron Maybin off the top of my head. Edited April 21, 2019 by Leonhart2017
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