Alpha Mock V2.0 - Top Ten and Bills picks over 4 rounds

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, MJS said:

Wow. That's definitely thinking outside the box. Lot's of trades.

 

I figured why not approach it aggressive.  Mocks are just mocks...but I tried to think through it in a way I felt was feasible.  

 

My mock is based on these opinions:

• Beane will have interest for the 9th pick and will trade down unless the guy he covets more than the next guy is there at 9 (which I dont think that player will still be there)
• Beane will be aggressive in using his extra capital through rounds 2 - 6 to get move up at least once (probably twice if we do trade down from 9).
• Beane has clearly demonstrated the desire for an impact offensive player for Josh
• Beane has clear interest in an EDGE rusher and/or DT
• Beane has clear interest in a RB

Using these beliefs, I structured my mock accordingly.  Was more for fun and speculation than anything.  

[KOKBILLS]

25 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Fair points on the RB...yeah I totally agree on the RB situation, lots of intriguing guys could be had there.  I live in Cali, so we saw a lot of him here and Love's dominance in 2017 is still fresh a bit in my mind lol.  I have a slight partial to him just because we saw so much of him

 

Right...

 

For his sake I REALLY wish he had come out after 2017...It sucks he's in this situation now because the kid was at the top of the world not too long ago...

 

If he does rehab well and regain form someone will get a nice steal...But the knee has me really worried and he did get a decent amount of mileage in College...Plus there are just SO many good RB's in this Draft that could go in that Rds 4-5 area...?

[Solomon Grundy]

43 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Never gonna happen. Bills won’t help Dolphins. Besides that, they won’t take a wide receiver with their first pick.

If not Miami, then Cincinnati. Bills will help Allen with the Metcalf pick. He's a Beane/McDermott type of player. Faith and family based. Hard worker, competitor.

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, the skycap said:

I like Alpha!! I just don't see them trading back up for Irv Smith. I can see them trading Zay Jones though. I think they will use pick #48 on Miles Sanders(Pegula's pick). I think they covet Trevon Wesco and will ***** late with #137. Wesco was All Big 12 1st team. He's 6'3" 267 and ran 4.89 40. He's a great blocker in the run and pass game. Good receiver with run after catch ability. He's my sleeper pick in the draft. So I'm looking at Metcalf, Wilkins, Sanders and Wesco. With the Zay trade they get Zach Allen, EDGE, from BC

 

Yeah I actually contemplated staying put at 48 and going RB and Sanders was the guy I was going to put in there.  Here is what I had as the alternate (no trade up with Giants).

 

#48 Miles Sanders

 

TRADE:  Bills send Zay Jones and #158 to San Francisco for #67 (3rd round)

Then at 67 I didn't mock a player there before I decided to go the other route and trade up for Irv.  But if we landed #67 we could go a number of directions.  TE, EDGE, OL, etc.  

[CEN-CAL17]

Top 5 picks... no particular order

 

DT- Jordan Phillips 1 year deal. 

 

DE- Shaq? Hughes getting older, Murphy after this year? Probably not.

 

RB- Shady & Gore 1 year 

 

OLB- Lorax replacement. 

 

TE/OT- I’d say OT more than TE but I’d think they will draft a TE before.

 

Oliver

Wilkins

Tillery

Burns

Ferguson

Jacobs

Hockenson

Fant

Williams

Taylor

 

Bills will draft 2 of these guys in the first round. I’m thinking 10 picks. It’s gotta be quality over quantity. 

 

[Doc Brown]

I prefer not to negotiate with terrorists but I'd rather have Miami take a young qb this year rather than Tua next year.  Bengals and Skins are other options.

[brianthomas]

So i guess this mock draft isn't really what you think the Bills will do, but instead what you would do or hope they do.

Pretty entertaining for sure. I think most of it is highly unlikely for reasons most have already stated but I'd be happy for the most part if we got those players.

 

Bottom line the Bills are in a good position to get some quality players & have tons of flexibility. It'll be pretty hard for them to screw this draft up.

Sure I myself wouldn't pick DK at #9, & but if thats what they do we still get a freakishly athletic wr so you can't really complain.

I just wish this darn draft were here already!

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

So i guess this mock draft isn't really what you think the Bills will do, but instead what you would do or hope they do.

Pretty entertaining for sure. I think most of it is highly unlikely for reasons most have already stated but I'd be happy for the most part if we got those players.

 

Bottom line the Bills are in a good position to get some quality players & have tons of flexibility. It'll be pretty hard for them to screw this draft up.

Sure I myself wouldn't pick DK at #9, & but if thats what they do we still get a freakishly athletic wr so you can't really complain.

I just wish this darn draft were here already!

 

Yeah kind of a Hybrid of a mock and how I would like to see it go.  

 

It’s ambitious, but I tried to remain plausible as best I could while still being aggressive because I think Beane will be aggressive with all this draft capital.  

[Golden Goat]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I would argue it helps the Bills more than the Dolphins.  We are further along.  

 

Also, what if McBeane think Lock is awful? Why wouldn't they accept compensation to let a division rival draft a bust?

[PIZ]

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, PIZ said:

 

 

 

Not gonna lie, that got me pretty hyped!  

[purple haze]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Fair points on the RB...yeah I totally agree on the RB situation, lots of intriguing guys could be had there.  I live in Cali, so we saw a lot of him here and Love's dominance in 2017 is still fresh a bit in my mind lol.  I have a slight partial to him just because we saw so much of him

He's an excellent player.   And they would be able to redshirt him until he's fully healthy.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Below is my Bills Mock V2 and also my overall mock from picks 1-8 to get to our pick.  I have us doing a trade, so then mocked it to where I think we will be picking.  Im only going to mock our picks to round 4, pretty pointless after that.  

 

DISCLOSURE:  Mocks are pretty pointless overall, so this is more of a "What would I do" if I was Beane based on what we know about Beane.  I do believe this is all feasible and makes sense, but its a hard year to predict anything and even harder to accurately predict trades.  So gonna have fun with it.  

 

Honestly, this year is one of the hardest in recent memory to mock the top 10.  There are no "obvious" choices outside of Murray really.  Everyone at every spot after AZ could go multiple directions with no clear cut obvious choice really, mainly because its hard to predict who is on the board still.  Normally you have a pretty good feel for the top 5, but not this year.  Will be a fun draft IMO for this reason.  

 

1. AZ:  Kyler Murray - Until I hear something otherwise, this seems like the only real sure bet right now.
2. SF:  Quennin Williams - 4 first round DE's on the roster, including an expensive Dee Ford.  DT helps them more and makes more sense than Bosa IMO.  
3. NYJ:  Nick Bosa - Talk of Oliver love here, but if Bosa gets past SF I think he is the pick.
4. OAK:  Josh Allen - They desperately need pass rush and Allen is chosen to do just that.
5. TB:  Devin White - Could be Oliver with McCoy trade talk, but they also need to replace Kwon.  Until I see McCoy is really on the move, I am going White here.
6. NYG:  Ed Oliver - One would think it could be Haskins here, but all the talk is that Gettleman wants D here and Ed Oliver is BPA on DL.
7. JAX:  Jawaan Taylor - The only way Foles can succeed is with pass protection.  JAX PassPro sucks, so I think they take the local boy to try and build up the line to protect Foles
8. DET:  Rashaan Gary - They need to replace Ansah, so they could also go Sweat here.  But Gary has more versatility along the line.  
9. MIA: TRADE (BUF) - Drew Lock - Miami trades to get ahead of Broncos to get Lock (TRADE:  Bills trade #9 to Miami for #13 and #48) 
10. DEN:  TJ Hockenson - Could also be Devin Bush, but Flacco has always used his TE's and Hockenson is a complete TE who helps block too after some OL losses
11. CIN:  Montez Sweat - Popular pick here is a QB and Dwayne Haskins is on the board.  But I think they want to see what new regime can do with Andy first and will jump at taking Sweat
12. GB:  Devin Bush - LB is a big need, but could also see them go Jonah Williams or Andre Dillard to help keep Aaron healthy
13. BUF:  We are on the clock!  

 

I just have a feeling someone like Miami is going to try and get in front of some of the teams who may go QB.

 

At 13 now, I can see several guys who are there in this mock and who could be there depending on how the draft fell.  On my board, guys like Jonah or Dillard are there along with DT Wilkins and WR DK Metcalf.  However, could also see TJ falling to us at 13 or even Montez Sweat slipping to us too.  But drafting obviously here on how this mock fell...

 

Buffalo' draft picks through 5 rounds:  #13 #40, #48, #74, #112, #131, #147, #158 

#13 BUF: DK Metcalf - Beane goes and gets this years freakishly high ceiling athlete (like Allen and Edmunds last year) to be a major weapon for Josh.  

 

TRADE ALERT - Bills trade up back into the first with Seattle.  Bills get #21 and Seattle gets #40, #74, and #112 - Seattle wants more picks...we trade with them but not for Clark.

#21 - BUF:  Christian Wilkins (or maybe Simmons) - They get their DT here...now this could also be a place to get a TE like say Noah, but I think DT value will be too big to pass up and a TE can be had next...as you will see... 

 

TRADE ALERT - Buffalo trades up again with NYG - Bills get #37 and Giants get #48, #181, and Zay Jones

#37 - BUF:  Irv Smith - After getting their DT in round 1 trade up, they go after another weapon for Josh in Irv Smith

 

#137 - BUF:  Bryce Love - If Singletary is here, he would be the pick over Love I believe.  Could also be Henderson...either way I suspect there will be an interesting RB lingering around here. 

 

Final tally:  Bills get Metcalf, Wilkins, Irv, and Love in rounds 1-4.  I would love this draft.  

 

I honestly could mock our picks very differently using the same trades and love those outcomes too.  Maybe they take Hock at 13, the DT at 21 still, and N'Keal Harry at 37 for example.  Or they could even go Wilkins at 13, Fant at 21 and Harry at 37...or Harry at 21 and Irv at 37.  They could also go Sweat or Burns at 13 too.  Either way, I think our first 3 picks could be WR, DT/EDGE, and TE in some order if our picks were 13, 21 and 37 after these trades.

 

NOTE:  I also would not be surprised if after the trade down if we used one of our second rounders to trade for Clowney.  

 

Feel free to tear it apart, really isn't going to be any right or wrong opinions, its just a dumb mock lol.  Thanks for reading if you got this far, cheers

 

Not a fan of the last two. Rather have 

 

RT Kaleb McGary

TE Kahale Warring

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I figured why not approach it aggressive.  Mocks are just mocks...but I tried to think through it in a way I felt was feasible.  

 

My mock is based on these opinions:

• Beane will have interest for the 9th pick and will trade down unless the guy he covets more than the next guy is there at 9 (which I dont think that player will still be there)
• Beane will be aggressive in using his extra capital through rounds 2 - 6 to get move up at least once (probably twice if we do trade down from 9).
• Beane has clearly demonstrated the desire for an impact offensive player for Josh
• Beane has clear interest in an EDGE rusher and/or DT
• Beane has clear interest in a RB

Using these beliefs, I structured my mock accordingly.  Was more for fun and speculation than anything.  

Heh?  I agree that Beane uses the draft to get impact players and trade/FA to get starting players.  He did get another RB, 3 wide receivers and two tight ends for Josh.  It is not that that cubbard is bare.  Where did he clearly indicate that he is going for a impact player for Josh rather than the best impact player?

 

[cage]

Interesting approach.   Hard to imagine trade w/ Dolphins, but I like that we end up w/ 3 picks in the top 37.  I like the move back in first for Wilkins.  I'm so mixed on Metcalf, but wouldn't be unhappy to see this happen.

[cage]

7 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

So still with the Zay Jones trade?

 

You will be a certified Board Genius if that still comes off on draft day..

 

 I hate the trade back up to 21 for all that capital..

 

 

 

 

He has to give up something to move from 48 down to 37.  Based on the value chart that prices Zay Jones as a top of the 4th round pick.  That's probably not out of line...

[gjv001]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Below is my Bills Mock V2 and also my overall mock from picks 1-8 to get to our pick.  I have us doing a trade, so then mocked it to where I think we will be picking.  Im only going to mock our picks to round 4, pretty pointless after that.  

 

DISCLOSURE:  Mocks are pretty pointless overall, so this is more of a "What would I do" if I was Beane based on what we know about Beane.  I do believe this is all feasible and makes sense, but its a hard year to predict anything and even harder to accurately predict trades.  So gonna have fun with it.  

 

Honestly, this year is one of the hardest in recent memory to mock the top 10.  There are no "obvious" choices outside of Murray really.  Everyone at every spot after AZ could go multiple directions with no clear cut obvious choice really, mainly because its hard to predict who is on the board still.  Normally you have a pretty good feel for the top 5, but not this year.  Will be a fun draft IMO for this reason.  

 

1. AZ:  Kyler Murray - Until I hear something otherwise, this seems like the only real sure bet right now.
2. SF:  Quennin Williams - 4 first round DE's on the roster, including an expensive Dee Ford.  DT helps them more and makes more sense than Bosa IMO.  
3. NYJ:  Nick Bosa - Talk of Oliver love here, but if Bosa gets past SF I think he is the pick.
4. OAK:  Josh Allen - They desperately need pass rush and Allen is chosen to do just that.
5. TB:  Devin White - Could be Oliver with McCoy trade talk, but they also need to replace Kwon.  Until I see McCoy is really on the move, I am going White here.
6. NYG:  Ed Oliver - One would think it could be Haskins here, but all the talk is that Gettleman wants D here and Ed Oliver is BPA on DL.
7. JAX:  Jawaan Taylor - The only way Foles can succeed is with pass protection.  JAX PassPro sucks, so I think they take the local boy to try and build up the line to protect Foles
8. DET:  Rashaan Gary - They need to replace Ansah, so they could also go Sweat here.  But Gary has more versatility along the line.  
9. MIA: TRADE (BUF) - Drew Lock - Miami trades to get ahead of Broncos to get Lock (TRADE:  Bills trade #9 to Miami for #13 and #48) 
10. DEN:  TJ Hockenson - Could also be Devin Bush, but Flacco has always used his TE's and Hockenson is a complete TE who helps block too after some OL losses
11. CIN:  Montez Sweat - Popular pick here is a QB and Dwayne Haskins is on the board.  But I think they want to see what new regime can do with Andy first and will jump at taking Sweat
12. GB:  Devin Bush - LB is a big need, but could also see them go Jonah Williams or Andre Dillard to help keep Aaron healthy
13. BUF:  We are on the clock!  

 

I just have a feeling someone like Miami is going to try and get in front of some of the teams who may go QB.

 

At 13 now, I can see several guys who are there in this mock and who could be there depending on how the draft fell.  On my board, guys like Jonah or Dillard are there along with DT Wilkins and WR DK Metcalf.  However, could also see TJ falling to us at 13 or even Montez Sweat slipping to us too.  But drafting obviously here on how this mock fell...

 

Buffalo' draft picks through 5 rounds:  #13 #40, #48, #74, #112, #131, #147, #158 

#13 BUF: DK Metcalf - Beane goes and gets this years freakishly high ceiling athlete (like Allen and Edmunds last year) to be a major weapon for Josh.  

 

TRADE ALERT - Bills trade up back into the first with Seattle.  Bills get #21 and Seattle gets #40, #74, and #112 - Seattle wants more picks...we trade with them but not for Clark.

#21 - BUF:  Christian Wilkins (or maybe Simmons) - They get their DT here...now this could also be a place to get a TE like say Noah, but I think DT value will be too big to pass up and a TE can be had next...as you will see... 

 

TRADE ALERT - Buffalo trades up again with NYG - Bills get #37 and Giants get #48, #181, and Zay Jones

#37 - BUF:  Irv Smith - After getting their DT in round 1 trade up, they go after another weapon for Josh in Irv Smith

 

#137 - BUF:  Bryce Love - If Singletary is here, he would be the pick over Love I believe.  Could also be Henderson...either way I suspect there will be an interesting RB lingering around here. 

 

Final tally:  Bills get Metcalf, Wilkins, Irv, and Love in rounds 1-4.  I would love this draft.  

 

I honestly could mock our picks very differently using the same trades and love those outcomes too.  Maybe they take Hock at 13, the DT at 21 still, and N'Keal Harry at 37 for example.  Or they could even go Wilkins at 13, Fant at 21 and Harry at 37...or Harry at 21 and Irv at 37.  They could also go Sweat or Burns at 13 too.  Either way, I think our first 3 picks could be WR, DT/EDGE, and TE in some order if our picks were 13, 21 and 37 after these trades.

 

NOTE:  I also would not be surprised if after the trade down if we used one of our second rounders to trade for Clowney.  

 

Feel free to tear it apart, really isn't going to be any right or wrong opinions, its just a dumb mock lol.  Thanks for reading if you got this far, cheers

In my opinion, this would be a "GREAT" draft.  What would make it an even "GREATER" draft is getting Singletary or Henderson instead of Love.

[BuffAlone]

8 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Never gonna happen. Bills won’t help Dolphins. Besides that, they won’t take a wide receiver with their first pick.

I'm guessing that is correct. Although we have traded with the Fish in past 1st rounds, it hasn't been since '84. Maybe I'm wrong, but it  seems like teams just don't help division rivals anymore...kinda an unspoken rule or philosophy

[ALLEN1QB]

You put some time into this and although it was entertaining  I have a better chance of beating the Jeopardy guy.

[Kirby Jackson]

Good stuff @Alphadawg7 outside of the Love pick I really like this. If you make that Devin Singletary it would be good.