Allen Sophomore Slump?

[JESSEFEFFER]

Having a 2nd year starting QB on a rookie contract is the new pathway to roster/franchise reivival.  There is so much pressure on a rookie QB to transition to the NFL game that it's really unfair to expect much from them.  The 2nd year is the year where everything can come together and often in spectacular fashion.  Coaching stability, roster upgrades, an entire offseason of preparation and unquestioned alpha QB status is all there (++++) to help improve Josh's 2nd season performance.  There's almost no way his performance can't be improved in ways obvious to all.

Edited April 20, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[zonabb]

13 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

If Allen had the exact same season as last BUT if half the dropped passes are caught because of the talent upgrade, the Bills are a playoff team.

Sure this is logical, only is you ignore math in favor of homerism. So let's explore this, so we can debunk this kind of thinking and opinion with empirical evidence rather than emotional irrationality. 

 

PFF has the 2018 drop rate for the Bills at 8% (9th highest). So if 8% of JA's 320 passes were instead caught, that would add 26 more completions to his total, bringing it from 169 to 195. That would increase his completion percentage to just a tad under 61%. However, since WR drops are common expectation, this isn't reality one should expect or point to blame for JAs low completion percentage. Put another way, Pats had a drop rate of 8.2 and Brady was 65.8%. Or put yet another way, if JA was actually better and more accurate people wouldn't have to try and deflect blame from him and onto everyone else. 

 

What is farfetched it your assessment that reducing the drop rate to 4% (by half as you suggest) would put this team in the playoffs. If you think 13 drops resulted in this team missing the playoffs, you're a homer at best, downright delusional at worst. The 6th playoff seed had 10 wins. Bills had 6. So the Bills were 13 catches away from four more wins and the final wildcard spot. Yep, totally logical.  

[K-9]

13 hours ago, Warcodered said:

The only real logic I can think of with a sophomore slump is if with more game film other teams are able to game plan for him more. As long as he continues to improve as a passer he should be fine I think I'd be more worried about Lamar Jackson.

That’s on Daboll and the coaches to manage. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

11 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I think expectations may be set a little high for josh.. This is a run first team, McD is gonna pound that rock this year which may not give Allen a ton of room to grow. If it works, and this line gels really good expect a lot of first down run, second down run non stop. All I want to see if dominant winning football, and Allen showing the ability to make the easy plays. We know he can make some hard ones but those easy gimmes are just killer. 

Unless we’re behind a bunch of games I would expect him to float around top 20ish in stats. Which is just fine by me if the ball control run game works for McDermott. Control the clock, wear down opposing defenses and keep your defense fresh, fast and hungry 

I understand your point and it may very well play out that way, but my hunch is that Daboll will have Marching orders to let it rip and let the guys have fun trying out the new toys on O; and besides, the expectations placed on this team are such that the drive to put up points should be at a premium. Allen Has it in him to put up big #’s, so let’s see what we’ve got, especially as the goal is to defeat the evil empire once and for all—we won’t do that by being bashful with our talent upgrades around Josh. Maybe this is all just wishful thinking on my part in terms of the look of the O philosophy, but I am trusting the process. 

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, TigerJ said:

The sophomore slump for QBs, if it happens, is mostly due to the attention defensive coordinators pay to them.  The tendencies of the QB become better understood and there is more film available.  Thus, coordinators may be able to game plan a little more effectively.  As for the QBs themselves, rarely would they actually become worse.  Trent Edwards was an exception for the Bills (I don't know if it was his sophomore season).  I think he had a bit of PTSD after getting shell shocked by an opponent's pass rush.  Most QBs get better in the sophomore season, though it may not always show.  I don't have any worries about Josh Allen in that regard.  He seems to have plenty of mental toughness to go along with his athleticism and skill set.  The Bills have taken steps to upgrade the offensive line and receiving weapons.  Brian Daboll and Sean McDermott seem to have a good handle on how to handle a young QB, so I expect him to improve quite a bit.

 

I think young QBs -- whether they are first rounder or UDFAs -- do actually get somewhat better once they've started some games and "figured out which way is up" as it were.  The problem is two fold, and they are linked to an extent.

 

First, as you, noted, DCs figure them out after they have some film.  It's why so often a young QB comes in and looks great (Nathan Peterman excepted) for several games -- maybe even a season or a little more -- and then he may either burn out like a meteor or simply become ineffective.  At some point, all QBs get figured out and can be stopped at least for a while.  The great ones, though, mostly overcome that. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick is an example of a talented QB who can be very good for as long as it takes for DCs to get enough tape on him with his current team to game plan for him (it seems to be about 5-6 games) and then he goes down in flames.

 

Second, mistakes and inconsistencies are forgiven a rookie or first time starting QB, but after he's made 20 or 30 starts, he's not getting a pass for still making the same kinds of stupid mistakes that he made earlier.   In order to limit his mistakes, a QB has to learn to read defenses.  He has to improve and/or maintain his mechanics.  He has to learn from his previous mistakes so that he makes better decisions (although some QBs seem to be gifted with superior decison makiing early on) -- and that's a tough task, especially when the better decisions conflict with their natural tendencies -- probably QBs labeled "gunslingers" are most prone to this problem.      IOW, QBs who don't master the skills that modern QBs need to overcome defensive planning intended to thwart them, don't last long as starters.  I think that Jameis Winston is a good example of a very talented young QB who seems to continue to make many of the same mistakes he made early on, which probably doesn't bode well for him having long term success.

Edited April 20, 2019 by SoTier

[NoHuddleKelly12]

6 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

^^^

 

 

This is probably the most common type of "sophomore slump" for QBs -- and it's not a good sign, especially if the QB, like Allen, didn't have a particularly good rookie season.   The more a sophomore QB improves over his rookie season, the more likely he is to have long-term success.  Off hand, the only recent first round QB I can think of who improved significantly in his second over his first and then crashed and burned was Josh Freeman whose failure, according to rumor, was due to drug use.

I think Josh gets a bit of a pass for the opening stretch (which still featured for example the Minnesota unbelievable upset), due to the circumstances of how he became a starter in the first place, and never having a full offseason with the “ones.” The second half extrapolated over a full season would qualify it as a successful rookie campaign by any objective measure, imho. And how about the finale? 5 TD’s against NFL competition, regardless of who, qualifies as a good sign of things to come. 

[SoTier]

4 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

I think Josh gets a bit of a pass for the opening stretch (which still featured for example the Minnesota unbelievable upset), due to the circumstances of how he became a starter in the first place, and never having a full offseason with the “ones.” The second half extrapolated over a full season would qualify it as a successful rookie campaign by any objective measure, imho. And how about the finale? 5 TD’s against NFL competition, regardless of who, qualifies as a good sign of things to come.  

 

Allen had a meh season for a rookie QB.  In fact, all of the 2018 QBs except for Mayfield, weren't all that good -- and even Mayfield had tremendous room for improvement.  Rookie QBs ALWAYS have room for improvement simply because they have a tremendous learning curve.   That's why it's so important for QBs in their second year as starters to improve significantly.   Staying the same simply isn't good enough -- and that's as true for Mayfield as it is for Allen.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Just now, SoTier said:

 

Allen had a meh season for a rookie QB.  In fact, all of the 2018 QBs except for Mayfield, weren't all that good -- and even Mayfield had tremendous room for improvement.  Rookie QBs ALWAYS have room for improvement simply because they have a tremendous learning curve.   That's why it's so important for QBs in their second year as starters to improve significantly.   Staying the same simply isn't good enough -- and that's as true for Mayfield as it is for Allen.

I agree with everything you said except for the 1st part—but that’s because I’m looking at Allen’s 2nd half performance as opposed to the beginning, for the reasons I gave in the previous post. Nonetheless, your points are mostly valid. Definitely a watershed year for this FO and coaching staff.

[LSHMEAB]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yeah, if by sophomore slump you mean a dramatic decline, those aren't all that common, and I wouldn't expect one.

 

Plenty of guys don't improve very much, though. You want to see a lot of improvement from a soph. I'm hopeful.

I've come around a bit on Allen, but if he sees a DRAMATIC decline in his passing stats.....I don't know. That would be pretty cataclysmic and possibly lead to serious questions about his future in the league.

 

I expect to see his rushing numbers decline as teams gameplan for that and his passing numbers increase with an improved supporting cast and a year of experience. If Allen is the guy, we should expect to see the more common second year leap QB's are making all over the league.

 

 

 

 

[row_33]

opposition will 100% be writing the book on him for this season

 

coaching staffs don't always do this for a rookie or first year in the spotlight QB, sometimes they are totally incompetent and sometimes they have 25 other problems to have to deal with instead of getting 100% ready for the tendencies of a QB that doesn't have a lot of "videotape"

 

He will face this like every other QB in history has had to that suddenly shot up without national fanfare, he's not the rookie with the most to re=accomplish in 2019

 

 

14 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I've come around a bit on Allen, but if he sees a DRAMATIC decline in his passing stats.....I don't know. That would be pretty cataclysmic and possibly lead to serious questions about his future in the league.

 

I expect to see his rushing numbers decline as teams gameplan for that and his passing numbers increase with an improved supporting cast and a year of experience. If Allen is the guy, we should expect to see the more common second year leap QB's are making all over the league.

 

 

 

 

 

improvement over the season in on-field leadership isn't measured with stats, i would hope he cuts down a bit on the running and learn to stand there a little longer and use that great arm he has, but it takes time..... 

[VW82]

I think if he doesn't take a big leap forward in his play this year he'll be on very thin ice. There were a lot of excuses made for him, many of them true, to absolve any blame for our horrific passing attack. This year he now has a year under his belt in the system, and will be surrounded by better players. If he struggles with accuracy and decision making again, then I hope we don't resort to calling it a sophomore slump. Personally, I think he's going to take another big step forward in his development just like he started to at the end of last season. 

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, VW82 said:

I think if he doesn't take a big leap forward in his play this year he'll be on very thin ice. There were a lot of excuses made for him, many of them true, to absolve any blame for our horrific passing attack. This year he now has a year under his belt in the system, and will be surrounded by better players. If he struggles with accuracy and decision making again, then I hope we don't resort to calling it a sophomore slump. Personally, I think he's going to take another big step forward in his development just like he started to at the end of last season. 

Tremendous mix of optimism and reality. You expect good things from Allen but aren't planning built in excuses if things go awry. Very well done.

 

The offensive talent surrounding Allen does not remotely resemble the Chiefs, so nobody is expecting 50 or even 35 TD passes. However, the talent is also at a level in which a franchise QB is perfectly capable of succeeding. We should EXPECT marked improvement in decision making, which will result in a higher comp. pct. and a more efficient overall game. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

16 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Tremendous mix of optimism and reality. You expect good things from Allen but aren't planning built in excuses if things go awry. Very well done.

 

The offensive talent surrounding Allen does not remotely resemble the Chiefs, so nobody is expecting 50 or even 35 TD passes. However, the talent is also at a level in which a franchise QB is perfectly capable of succeeding. We should EXPECT marked improvement in decision making, which will result in a higher comp. pct. and a more efficient overall game. 

...agree....and it certainly seems like McBeane recognized those deficiencies, starting with FA and I'm sure he will continue in the draft.....to leave his hopeful franchise QB would be a major indictment.....Josh needs to be the long term franchise QB versus the short term exit on a gurney for putting too much of this club solely on his shoulders IMO...as I said, gimme something remotely close to Mahomes' "2nd year/sophomore slump".....

Edited April 20, 2019 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[SoTier]

41 minutes ago, row_33 said:

improvement over the season in on-field leadership isn't measured with stats, i would hope he cuts down a bit on the running and learn to stand there a little longer and use that great arm he has, but it takes time..... 

 

I think that on-field leadership was something that Allen didn't struggle with much last season.   The same team that looked like a sandlot squad under Peterman and uninspiring under Anderson and Barkley, looked like it might have some hope under Allen.  Now, however, he's going to have to execute if his teammates are going to continue to believe in him, especially with all the new FAs on offense.  Allen is going to have to demonstrate early on that he can make plays with his arm and his head, not just with his legs, so I think that his passing stats such as completion percentage, yards per attempt and TD/INT ratio are going to have to improve.  Doing so should enable the team to move the ball, make more 3rd downs, and score more TDs, especially in the RZ ... and hopefully, win more games.

[PromoTheRobot]

5 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

This is lazy work. Check your records, then rewatch the games. If you come back here and tell me Allen didn’t lose more than a thousand yards passing through penalties and drops, then I’ll make you prove it play for play. When you have 2 consecutive 20+ yard completions wiped out by penalties, it forces 3rd & 30. Only here does your slant have credence. He didn’t complete most of those..

 

I don't think you understood my post. I was saying that the Allen would be a playoff QB if he just plays at the same 2018 level but his new receivers eliminate half the drops. @Nextmanup is the who said those drops are insignificant.

3 hours ago, zonabb said:

Sure this is logical, only is you ignore math in favor of homerism. So let's explore this, so we can debunk this kind of thinking and opinion with empirical evidence rather than emotional irrationality. 

 

PFF has the 2018 drop rate for the Bills at 8% (9th highest). So if 8% of JA's 320 passes were instead caught, that would add 26 more completions to his total, bringing it from 169 to 195. That would increase his completion percentage to just a tad under 61%. However, since WR drops are common expectation, this isn't reality one should expect or point to blame for JAs low completion percentage. Put another way, Pats had a drop rate of 8.2 and Brady was 65.8%. Or put yet another way, if JA was actually better and more accurate people wouldn't have to try and deflect blame from him and onto everyone else. 

 

What is farfetched it your assessment that reducing the drop rate to 4% (by half as you suggest) would put this team in the playoffs. If you think 13 drops resulted in this team missing the playoffs, you're a homer at best, downright delusional at worst. The 6th playoff seed had 10 wins. Bills had 6. So the Bills were 13 catches away from four more wins and the final wildcard spot. Yep, totally logical.  

 

You two guys just hash it out..

Edited April 20, 2019 by PromoTheRobot

[stinky finger]

13 hours ago, RobbRiddick said:

I think Allen will throw a lot of INTs but a lot of TDs as well. I see him having more confidence but over confidence at times. Plus our offense will be more wide open and he'll have more time to throw, so he'll be taking more shots down field. 

 

I could see him reminding me a lot of Favre this season. Bad throw followed by a great throw - similar to last season but on a bigger scale. 

 

I don't care if he does, so long as he slings it around and we score a bunch of points I don't care about him being perfect. I do think he'll have a few 300+ yard games with multiple TDs

 

good post. 

 

I think this is completely reasonable.

[stinky finger]

14 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I think expectations may be set a little high for josh.. This is a run first team, McD is gonna pound that rock this year which may not give Allen a ton of room to grow. If it works, and this line gels really good expect a lot of first down run, second down run non stop. All I want to see if dominant winning football, and Allen showing the ability to make the easy plays. We know he can make some hard ones but those easy gimmes are just killer. 

Unless we’re behind a bunch of games I would expect him to float around top 20ish in stats. Which is just fine by me if the ball control run game works for McDermott. Control the clock, wear down opposing defenses and keep your defense fresh, fast and hungry 

 

I'm thinking they have other plans for JA and how's he's used.

 

We go as his arm goes. He's way too talented to be confined. JA and his complete arsenal will be be unleashed.  

[Rc2catch]

8 minutes ago, inaugural balls said:

 

I'm thinking they have other plans for JA and how's he's used.

 

We go as his arm goes. He's way too talented to be confined. JA and his complete arsenal will be be unleashed.  

To a certain extent I agree, trust me nothing would make me happier than seeing Allen run a lethal passing attack like New Orleans where anyone can be an open weapon any play.. I just think the coaches mindsets are to run the ball and that being their keys to victories. 

[Misterbluesky]

On 4/20/2019 at 3:47 AM, GunnerBill said:

If he slumps as a passer we are in big trouble. His passing stats have to get better this year or else it begins to look very much like he is not the guy. I think they will, but the idea of a slump.... I just don't think he was good enough as a rookie (taking away the running) to say there would be any excuse whatsoever for a slump. 

He has a safety valve this year in Beasley.How many times did Josh want to check down but he couldn't because he was forced get out of the pocket or take a knocking (Houston game,one example).Beasley is a sneaky cat but you already know that...it's going to be a beautiful thing to see when we can witness a WR who knows how to separate from a back.

IMO...Beane aced the former Cowboy signing....as he did with Morse and his contract.

Edited April 21, 2019 by Misterbluesky

[Inigo Montoya]

12 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

@Inigo Montoya

 

Great OT, Inigo.

 

7 out of 10, as you say, which I believe is 4 linemen, 2 WR and a tight end.  However, I’d like to throw in the 5th olinemen, Dawkins and his renewed commitment to being a better player instead of just succumbing to the inertia of being a pro.  As well I am going to mentione Zay/Foster as the situational third receiver and their expected growth, and finally Shady, a man who is making a push for the hall of fame and still has juice left in the tank.

 

I just think there are way to many positives, as opposed to last year, that are beneficial to Allen to think that he would have a sophomore slump...actually, I think they may be better at every position this year on O...crazy.

 

 

 

This is essentially a brand new offense this season.   It will take some time for all these new players to get comfortable with each other, and just as importantly, it will take some time for Daboll to figure out what they are capable of,  their strengths and weaknesses, and learn to game plan accordingly.   I'm glad our schedule is easier out of the gate (at least on paper) and gets tougher at the the end of the season when hopefully the O-line has had time to gel and the offense is clicking.

 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Inigo Montoya