Allen Sophomore Slump?

[Inigo Montoya]

I was wondering what the odds are of a second year QB continuing to develop versus experiencing the dreaded "sophomore slump".  There are a few good articles about it that point to the fact that the Sophomore Slump is more fiction than fact since the mid 1980's.

 

Here's a Bleacher Report story published in 2013.  It takes a look at 2nd year quarterbacks.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1699076-ranking-the-best-sophomore-qb-seasons-in-nfl-history#slide0

"So much of the discussion about a second-year quarterback revolves around the mythical sophomore slump. Rather than talk about that player taking a step forward in the NFL, we expect them to decline after experiencing rookie success.  Including Cam Newton and Andy Dalton last year, 17 of the last 22 quarterbacks in position to have a sophomore slump did not have one. That means 77.3 percent either stayed at the same level or improved."

 

In 2016 Rolling Stone took a look at this and came to the same conclusion;

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-sports/why-the-quarterback-sophomore-slump-is-football-myth-109876/

“That is the NFL today. Rookies now have expectations, because they can meet them. There is no sophomore slump. This is the year you take it to the next level, because that is what you are supposed to do.”

 

This article from NFLMocks in 2017 also debunks the myth of the sophomore slump

https://nflmocks.com/2017/07/21/nfl-quarterback-sophomore-slump-fact-fiction/

"Unless there’s a change in physical health or the team around a player, there’s little chance a dramatic decline will occur between years one and two."

 

I think there are several solid reasons to believe that Allen avoids the "Sophomore Slump" this year.  Consider the fact that at least seven of the ten players stepping onto the field with Allen this year should be a clear upgrade over last year's supporting cast.  I don't think you can point to another team that has upgraded the overall offense between years one and two for a QB as much as the Bills have for Allen this off season.  

 

We all saw how much that six week break midseason helped Allen improve his game.  I think Allen will continue to improve with an entire off season of study and a full training camp as the starting QB playing with the first team offense.  He will know the offense inside out and feel more comfortable under center.  Couple all that with our team friendly schedule this season and I think Allen has a great shot at a break out season.

 

 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[PromoTheRobot]

If Allen had the exact same season as last BUT if half the dropped passes are caught because of the talent upgrade, the Bills are a playoff team.

[Warcodered]

The only real logic I can think of with a sophomore slump is if with more game film other teams are able to game plan for him more. As long as he continues to improve as a passer he should be fine I think I'd be more worried about Lamar Jackson.

[Augie]

23 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

The only real logic I can think of with a sophomore slump is if with more game film other teams are able to game plan for him more. As long as he continues to improve as a passer he should be fine I think I'd be more worried about Lamar Jackson.

Will he see less man coverage, due to fear of DB’s turning their heads away from him and giving up the 20 yards run? Find guys who know where the soft spot in the zone is, and PLEASE be able to hit them. Then, every once in a while, let the cannon fire one long! We have speed to burn. 

 

 

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Edited April 20, 2019 by Augie

[Albany,n.y.]

I expect him to do what these 2nd year QBs did Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Kurt Warner (2nd year inn NFL) did. Win the Super Bowl.  Another 2nd year QB, Carson Wentz, helped his team get home field before getting hurt and saw his team win the Super Bowl.  Or, at worst get to the Super Bowl like Marino & Kaepernick did.  

That's the thing that 2nd year QBs do in this era-WIN SUPER BOWLS.  I expect nothing less from Josh Allen and every Bills fan should anticipate watching the Bills playing in Miami on Ground Hog Day 2020.  

[MJS]

Yeah, I don't believe that will happen for Allen. He didn't have even average stats last year except for the scrambling. He should improve upon that or there is a big problem.

 

But we have seen QB's have sophomore slumps. Dak Prescott is an example. RGIII is another, and I don't believe his fall from glory was only about injury.

[klos63]

It's not like Allen lit up the league last season. Isn't that required in order to 'slump' afterwords?

[Alphadawg7]

He will be a breakout player in 2019...book it.  

[Solomon Grundy]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

He will be a breakout player in 2019...book it.  

Especially with the players Beane/McDermott will acquire/acquired to put around him. 

[Bookie Man]

Allen is trending upward big time imo. He went from (68) to (80) after returning from injury. Surrounding cast is stronger. Running game/OL was a joke last year (67). Both will be vastly improved to (84). WR talent is also looking stronger (69) last season to (81) this season . All this with draft and a decent amount of time left in off-season. I think Allen could be close to (83-84) by week 6 and dancing around (88-89) come seasons end. These are kind of like my own version of Madden numbers... Interested to see anyone else's take on this kind of numbering system. Just replace my numbers with yours.

Edited April 20, 2019 by R Y G A R

[Rc2catch]

I think expectations may be set a little high for josh.. This is a run first team, McD is gonna pound that rock this year which may not give Allen a ton of room to grow. If it works, and this line gels really good expect a lot of first down run, second down run non stop. All I want to see if dominant winning football, and Allen showing the ability to make the easy plays. We know he can make some hard ones but those easy gimmes are just killer. 

Unless we’re behind a bunch of games I would expect him to float around top 20ish in stats. Which is just fine by me if the ball control run game works for McDermott. Control the clock, wear down opposing defenses and keep your defense fresh, fast and hungry 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

.....a sophomore slump like Mahome's 2nd year would be ok......I guess.............

[RobbRiddick]

I think Allen will throw a lot of INTs but a lot of TDs as well. I see him having more confidence but over confidence at times. Plus our offense will be more wide open and he'll have more time to throw, so he'll be taking more shots down field. 

 

I could see him reminding me a lot of Favre this season. Bad throw followed by a great throw - similar to last season but on a bigger scale. 

 

I don't care if he does, so long as he slings it around and we score a bunch of points I don't care about him being perfect. I do think he'll have a few 300+ yard games with multiple TDs

[Laughing Coffin]

I feel like sophomore slumps occur to other skill positions like RB/WR

 

Allen needs to show much improvement because there's much improvement to be made.  If he has a sophomore slump he'd be the quality of a fringe starter in the league

Edited April 20, 2019 by Laughing Coffin

[mannc]

4 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I expect him to do what these 2nd year QBs did Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Kurt Warner (2nd year inn NFL) did. Win the Super Bowl.  Another 2nd year QB, Carson Wentz, helped his team get home field before getting hurt and saw his team win the Super Bowl.  Or, at worst get to the Super Bowl like Marino & Kaepernick did.  

That's the thing that 2nd year QBs do in this era-WIN SUPER BOWLS.  I expect nothing less from Josh Allen and every Bills fan should anticipate watching the Bills playing in Miami on Ground Hog Day 2020.  

Why the hell not?

[GunnerBill]

If he slumps as a passer we are in big trouble. His passing stats have to get better this year or else it begins to look very much like he is not the guy. I think they will, but the idea of a slump.... I just don't think he was good enough as a rookie (taking away the running) to say there would be any excuse whatsoever for a slump. 

[JoPar_v2]

I mean logic would suggest Allen improves. He has a low bar to clear based on rookie performance.

59 minutes ago, Laughing Coffin said:

I feel like sophomore slumps occur to skill positions like RB/WR

 

Allen needs to show much improvement because there's much improvement to be made.  If he has a sophomore slump he'd be the quality of a fringe starter in the league

 

QB isn’t a “skill position”?

[Laughing Coffin]

1 hour ago, JoPar_v2 said:

I mean logic would suggest Allen improves. He has a low bar to clear based on rookie performance.

 

QB isn’t a “skill position”?

 

my fault it's late over here, meant "other skill positions"

[JoPar_v2]

12 minutes ago, Laughing Coffin said:

 

my fault it's late over here, meant "other skill positions"

 

Ha i got you no problem.

[Nextmanup]

6 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

If Allen had the exact same season as last BUT if half the dropped passes are caught because of the talent upgrade, the Bills are a playoff team.

Uh, not really.

 

How many dropped passes do you think there were last season?

 

They weren't statistically significant.