Patterns from OBD that have emerged in the Draft

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...just curious 'Dawg about a Zay trade....do you think there would be market interest and what may be the value?.......he's been beaten up badly around these parts and I'm not sure a GM sees value in rolling the dice on him with a pick...........

 

Yeah, he isnt going to fetch a ton, but he was recently a 2nd round pick so he still has value.  We signed Cole Beasley, one of the most respected slot guys in the NFL.  So wont shock anyone if we shopped Zay with Brown and Foster already penciled in for the outside.  

 

This is actually WHY I think Beane will trade Zay.  If he doesnt do it this offseason, he will have almost no value later if he is 4th or lower on our depth chart in 2019.  I think he could package him to a number of teams who could use another WR with a pick to move up.  

 

But truthfully, I think the more likely scenario will be a trade during camp/preseason after they showcase him a bit like they did Sammy.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, he isnt going to fetch a ton, but he was recently a 2nd round pick so he still has value.  We signed Cole Beasley, one of the most respected slot guys in the NFL.  So wont shock anyone if we shopped Zay with Brown and Foster already penciled in for the outside.  

 

This is actually WHY I think Beane will trade Zay.  If he doesnt do it this offseason, he will have almost no value later if he is 4th or lower on our depth chart in 2019.  I think he could package him to a number of teams who could use another WR with a pick to move up.  

 

But truthfully, I think the more likely scenario will be a trade during camp/preseason after they showcase him a bit like they did Sammy.  

 

 

....thanks bud....MUCH appreciated..........

[jahnyc]

Very few things to be sure of with this draft other than it is unlikely the Bills draft a QB.  They signed a lot of free agents this offseason, which means fewer available roster spots. As a result, I also do not expect that the Bills will use all of their picks, instead packaging some to move up in the draft, particularly since Beane does seem to target players he wants.  

 

I think we go DT or DE in the first round.  Kind of surprised that there is little talk about our needs at LB.  I think it is an overall area of need and the Bills draft a couple of LBs and at least one CB.  I think the draft will heavy on the defense.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...not really sure if you can glean much from a supposed "McBeane pattern".....he's more like the unpredictable mad scientist or OBD's "Phil Ivey"......wouldn't surprise me one bit if he has a multitude of "what if" scenarios sketched out as draft day unfolds ahead of #9 as to what his moves may be....hell I'd even bet he started laying out the 2020 landscape as far as probable draftees, UFA's etc......BUT....certainly NOT looking to antagonize the "Fire McBeane Gang"......

[ctk232]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

2017 was not Beane, I hesitate how much you use that draft as a trade up and trade down example. I excluded that draft for my thought process since the entire front office changed right after the draft. 

 

2018 on is what to look at. We seem to be aggressive when we zero in on a player - Allen and they had no scenarios where Edmunds was available at 22, he slid enough to make them move. I expect us to be aggressive here if they have someone ranked highly enough the depth below them...

Exactly - while I appreciate OP's thoughts, you kind of need it to happen more than once for a pattern to be established...considering Beane's only been here for one draft I'm not sure what kind of pattern there is to discern. Speculation based upon events that have happened so far? Sure.

 

That being said, it's difficult to draw any kind of scenarios for how we approached the early rounds last year into this year. While the similarities are that we are going into draft day with a good number of picks, we do not have two first round picks nor are we looking for a QB in the first. I do agree that Beane demonstrated he's not afraid to be aggressive and trade up for his guy, but having a good number of picks is better than not as a GM so it only makes sense he'd try and give himself the best situation possible to achieve multiple outcomes (i.e. trade up, trade down, player trades for picks, etc.) should he choose to do so. I wouldn't say this is a guarantee that he will move up in the draft.

 

There's nothing to say we won't just pick ten players where we currently fall in any order based upon his historical draft record...

Edited April 19, 2019 by ctk232

[Reed83HOF]

5 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

Exactly - while I appreciate OP's thoughts, you kind of need it to happen more than once for a pattern to be established...considering Beane's only been here for one draft I'm not sure what kind of pattern there is to discern. Speculation based upon events that have happened so far? Sure.

 

That being said, it's difficult to draw any kind of scenarios for how we approached the early rounds last year into this year. While the similarities are that we are going into draft day with a good number of picks, we do not have two first round picks nor are we looking for a QB in the first. I do agree that Beane demonstrated he's not afraid to be aggressive and trade up for his guy, but having a good number of picks is better than not as a GM so it only makes sense he'd try and give himself the best situation possible to achieve multiple outcomes (i.e. trade up, trade down, player trades for picks, etc.) should he choose to do so. I wouldn't say this is a guarantee that he will move up in the draft.

 

There's nothing to say we won't just pick ten players where we currently fall in any order based upon his historical draft record...

 

No  disagreements here. It comes down to value, our board and teams above and below wanting to move or stay put. Top notch talent seems to be the DL in general at the top end and a move up in RD1 for that would be for one of those guys. Otherwise I'm not sure how much we would slide back in RD1 unless we can pick up a 2nd rounder this year. 

 

I can definitely see us moving up in RD2-7

[ctk232]

2 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

No  disagreements here. It comes down to value, our board and teams above and below wanting to move or stay put. Top notch talent seems to be the DL in general at the top end and a move up in RD1 for that would be for one of those guys. Otherwise I'm not sure how much we would slide back in RD1 unless we can pick up a 2nd rounder this year. 

 

I can definitely see us moving up in RD2-7

For sure, and it's difficult to gauge. There's still the chance that Beane makes a move for Clark or Clowney as well on draft day which would ultimately affect whether we accrue more early picks or end up trading into different rounds.

 

My current hope is we're able to trade up into the 2nd for an additional pick if we can - or down in the first adding an extra second just to capitalize on the mid-round depth of talent for WRs and TEs in addition to hopefully adding an OL to the stable we've brought in. I'm not as high on drafting an RB in this class, and would be fine spending a 5th or lower there, but otherwise waiting for next year. 

 

The bottom line is that the fact we are even able to discuss all these options as possibilities is enough to say that our Front Office has done absolute work in setting themselves up for however the cards may fall on draft day, and make the most of any situation.

[mikemac2001]

1 hour ago, ctk232 said:

For sure, and it's difficult to gauge. There's still the chance that Beane makes a move for Clark or Clowney as well on draft day which would ultimately affect whether we accrue more early picks or end up trading into different rounds.

 

My current hope is we're able to trade up into the 2nd for an additional pick if we can - or down in the first adding an extra second just to capitalize on the mid-round depth of talent for WRs and TEs in addition to hopefully adding an OL to the stable we've brought in. I'm not as high on drafting an RB in this class, and would be fine spending a 5th or lower there, but otherwise waiting for next year. 

 

The bottom line is that the fact we are even able to discuss all these options as possibilities is enough to say that our Front Office has done absolute work in setting themselves up for however the cards may fall on draft day, and make the most of any situation.

 

If there guy isn’t there I’d like a trade down 

gain an extra first next year or this year 

 

then do a trade up with our 3-5rds back into the 2nd 

 

That would give us 4 picks in top 60 or 3 picks in top 60 and 2 1st next year 

 

we need to move picks either way.

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Great accumulation of thoughts here... 

 

To your point on 4.1: just because there's not a clear-cut defined starter doesn't mean that person isn't on the roster -- specifically at RT and CB2, I think we're fine with the guys that have been brought in. 

 

You touched on it, but there seems to be some thought given to the depth pipeline as well... It's a little extreme, but I think if we could consolidate 10 picks into 4 talented players at 3T, WR, TE and RB, I'd be very happy with that outcome... 

 

My dream scenario (emphasis on dream): 

1. Trade up to 5 to get Quinnen Williams

2. Package Zay and 2 to get DK

3. Bundle most of our remaining picks to get a top TE

4. Grab a higher potential RB in the late rounds

There is no reason to trade up to get a DT when they can select a very good to excellent one at 9 most likely

[glazeduck]

Just now, matter2003 said:

There is no reason to trade up to get a DT when they can select a very good to excellent one at 9 most likely

It's all cost-dependent, sure. But if the cost were palatable, Quinnen Williams is a superstar. He's head and shoulders better than the other "very good to excellent ones at 9". 

[BillsSbSoon]

Our first round pick the last ten years has come from the acc or sec. Josh allen is the only exception and even then we traded back in and got edmunds

[ctk232]

2 hours ago, mikemac2001 said:

 

If there guy isn’t there I’d like a trade down 

gain an extra first next year or this year 

 

then do a trade up with our 3-5rds back into the 2nd 

 

That would give us 4 picks in top 60 or 3 picks in top 60 and 2 1st next year 

 

we need to move picks either way.

While awesome, it's so hard to account and plan for a trade down scenario. it's been beaten to death on here, but the suitor needs to be there on the other end as well. Needless to say, I do think you'll see, or at least hear afterwards of an attempt,  to package our late round picks to move back up into the 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th rounds depending on who the sleeper falls are - especially when it comes to the depth at DL, WR, and TE in this draft, Beane may only get a suitor to trade back up into this year's 2/3/4th rounds.

 

If we could get a trade to gain an added first for next year, I'm not sure what that might look like unless a team is again actively looking for our 9th pick from pretty low in the first (comparable value and what not). That to say, I'm not sure there's a team down there that would do this outside of the Pats - though they would seem content to pick whoever falls to them at 32. There's still the hope that the Redskins try and trade up, or another team looking too far down the future and not at the massive DL feast in front of them this year - but not sure how much, if at all, we can bank on it. But look on the bright side - our scouts and FO have at least landed on late round picks and UDFA pick ups to the point where we need those guys just as much as our star talent to fill out the roster and make the team affordable. Let's not forget, we still need to work on getting ST guys which those late round picks come in handy for.

[Socal-805]

Nice.  

 

This is a make or break year I believe for this Front Office and coach: if the O-line doesn't pan out, and if J. Allen doesn't start completing some passes with all the

new receiver help, they could be in trouble.

 

2017 - 18th points / game. Defense

2018 - 18th points / game.  Defense

 

 

 

[GreggTX]

Why are you including Whaley in this analysis? It's just insane that so many people are making this mistake.

[MJS]

There literally cannot be a pattern. A pattern requires at least 3 data points. Beane has only been here for one draft and McDermott only for 2.

 

So no, I think there is no pattern and we cannot make assumptions based on the last two drafts.

[formerlyofCtown]

19 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Great accumulation of thoughts here... 

 

To your point on 4.1: just because there's not a clear-cut defined starter doesn't mean that person isn't on the roster -- specifically at RT and CB2, I think we're fine with the guys that have been brought in. 

 

You touched on it, but there seems to be some thought given to the depth pipeline as well... It's a little extreme, but I think if we could consolidate 10 picks into 4 talented players at 3T, WR, TE and RB, I'd be very happy with that outcome... 

 

My dream scenario (emphasis on dream): 

1. Trade up to 5 to get Quinnen Williams

2. Package Zay and 2 to get DK

3. Bundle most of our remaining picks to get a top TE

4. Grab a higher potential RB in the late rounds

You must plan on trading next years picks to do what you suggest.

[Logic]

Looking over the top 30 visits for Buffalo and taking into account the factors laid out in the OP, the following seems most likely:

1st round: Best defensive lineman still available (met with Williams, Oliver, Sweat, Gary). If no defensive lineman they like still available, take best available OT (me with Jawaan Taylor, Jonah Williams).

2nd round: Best WR left on the board (met with AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, N'Keal Harry, etc...all 2nd round prospects).

3rd/4th Rounds: Best TE, RB, or D-lineman other than what they took in round 1 (so if round 1 is tackle, they take an edge here, and vice versa). (Met with Dawson Knox, Drew Sample, and Trevon Wesco at tight end, multiple mid round running backs, Maxx Crosby, Jaylon Ferguson at edge).

I know everyone says "Nope, they're just gonna go straight BPA, stupid!".

I'm just telling you that this front office is big on actually MEETING with guys they spend high picks on. 

Based on all the factors I mentioned, I'd bet decent money on things playing out pretty close to the way I've listed above.

Edited April 20, 2019 by Logic

[formerlyofCtown]

14 hours ago, glazeduck said:

It's all cost-dependent, sure. But if the cost were palatable, Quinnen Williams is a superstar. He's head and shoulders better than the other "very good to excellent ones at 9". 

Williams has the potential to be a superstar.  He is nothing yet.

[Big Turk]

14 hours ago, glazeduck said:

It's all cost-dependent, sure. But if the cost were palatable, Quinnen Williams is a superstar. He's head and shoulders better than the other "very good to excellent ones at 9". 

Didn't we draft a DT from the same school a few years ago who we thought the same thing of?

[ganesh]

19 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

I believe Zay will be traded, not sure it will be on draft day.  But I don't know how we can do all these trades you are suggesting.  Now you are saying our 2nd rounder and Zay to get DK.  I dont think we can do that and also trade for Quennin, which I believe would command this years 2nd.  

They gave additional draft picks to move up to draft Zay. He is not going anywhere.