10 draft picks - Gotta trade up

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, hmsmystic said:

I'm thinking the Bills are done trading up.  Seems generally only a good idea to do so for a QB.  They have stated they want to build through the draft and we have very few home grown drafted players on the roster.   I have nightmares still about the Sammy Watkins deal- let's stand pat or move down

Sammy was a generational WR until Giselle used a Voodoo doll to break his feet.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

10 draft picks. 

 

Could trade up.

 

Or back to next year.

 

Or not at all.

Totally disagree !!!?

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

Beane has made the draft very "Must Watch" entertaining.

[Putin]

2 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

With the depth of good players in certain position groups in this draft class, I think it makes more sense to move up into the second or third rounds.  The price to make those moves is a more reasonable use of the extra 4th, 5th, and 7th round picks. 

We need difference makers , we had a good free agency and I’m sure there will be more players added after preseason 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

9 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

I have said this before so I will say it again I see 2 Firsts and 2 Seconds. 9, 28-31 is where I see first round picks.

 

Hockenson, DK Metcalf, Dexter Lawrence and Kaleb McGary would make a fine draft, throw in Chase Winovich in the third and we are golden.

 

[Chandler#81]

9 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Haven’t seen this topic here before 

 

Next Thursday can’t come soon enough 

 

ad nausea.. If it’s any comfort, I’m in a straight jacket, babbling, drooling and peeing myself. I’ve fought the hard fight.

 

I lost.

[Solomon Grundy]

That 2000 draft stunk!!!

[maryland-bills-fan]

8 hours ago, napmaster said:

Ok, I'll bite...

 

The only path I see via the trade chart to get this coveted 2 1sts and 2 2nds would require pulling off deals with Oakland and KC.

 

Bills give 1st (#9) 1350pts, 4th(#131) 41 pts, 5th(#158) 28 pts to Oakland for 1st (#24) 740pts,  1st(#27) 680pts

Bills give 2nd(#40) 500pts, 4th(#112) 70 pts to KC for 2nd(#61) 292pts, 2nd(#63) 276pts

 

Those are comparable from a pure points perspective, but the Bills would be giving up the premium picks, so they may be able to do a little better.

 

 

 

 

 

That math works BUT...  The Bills are looking for impact players from the draft.  The bottom of the first and the second round will give you (usually) good starting players that can be a foundation for your team, but are not (usually) impact players.   Most of the time you have to go no lower than the teens fin the first round for these.  Last year you saw two trade ups into the first round.   For a QB, you pay thu the nose to move up to the top 10 or higher.  Right now we are in a sweet spot, just below the QB zone and can get an impact player at #9. 

[Jpsredemption]

How about not. If 10 picks is too many then fine even though I don’t agree. They should focus on adding picks in rounds 1-3 and after that they can shed if they want. 

[TigerJ]

Bills don't gotta trade up.  Beane has the freedom to do whatever he wants to do.  If he want to trade up, he has the draft capital to do so, at least a modest trade, but he doesn't have to do so.  Trading up will happen if 1.  (and most important) there is a player Beane covets that he does not think will be on the board when Buffalo is on the clock.  2.  There is a willing draft partner at a spot that makes sense to Beane.  3.  The asking price is fair in Beane's mind.  4.  Beane has the picks he's willing to part with.   If those four conditions are met, a trade up will happen, but just having 3 extra day 3 picks does not guarantee it.

[ALLEN1QB]

This draft is stacked with DL players so let's get 2 studs with the first 2 picks. If that means trading back up into the 1st round I say go for it. We have LB to deal with twice a year so grab some run stoppers then go after OL help. To me these should be the top priorities with this draft.   

[Bill from NYC]

13 hours ago, BillsVet said:

40% of Buffalo's current roster is occupied by unrestricted free agents.  Very few are draft picks as a result of McBeane's near-erasing of the Whaley and previous eras combined with some retirements.

 

This is more a team built in free agency (see the OL) than in the draft...for now.  Trading up is something Buffalo's done 4 times in 2 drafts, which could be the reason people expect it for the third year in a row.  

 

Then again, there isn't a 1st or 2nd round pick they've made the past 2 drafts where they say and used their pick.  Tre, Zay, Dawkins, Allen, and Edmunds were all guys they moved around for. 

I would love a trade down which could get them an extra #1 next season. The receivers coming out will be sensational.

[mjt328]

Roster limitations are definitely a consideration.

And at this point, it's hard seeing 10 picks sticking - unless a good portion end up on the practice squad.

 

However, don't discount the ability for Beane to trade away current players as well.

 

If we add an OT at #9, it's very possible we end up trading away Dion Dawkins. 

If we add a WR at #9, I wouldn't be surprised if Zay Jones is moved.

Depending on how things shake out with the D-Line, I could see us shopping Shaq Lawson or even Jerry Hughes.

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

My goal would be to get the most out of their current picks on day 3, where the 7 players they might take can't all make the roster.  They can do this by attempting the following:

 

1) More day 2 picks.  Instead of 3 in the top 100, I would much like to see 5 taken there to really upgrade the roster with young talent.  They can trade down into the middle of the first but up into the 3rd at the same time.  There are so many different educated guesses as to whom the Bills might take @ 9 which tells me that many of those same players would be there @ 15 or 17.

 

2) Convert 2019 picks into upgraded 2020 picks.

 

3) Draft an talented but injured player for a redshirt year on IR.  Bryce Love makes some sense because they look to have bigger RB needs for the 2020 roster.

 

4) Draft a punter.  Maybe the best punter in the draft who they think might win the job.  Some have lobbied for Mitch Wisnowski who is an interesting athletic, ex Aussie Rules player and 3 time Ray Guy finalist from Utah.  Just make another move to improve their chances to have better special teams play this year and an Australian accent in the post game locker room would be awesome.  Cue the Men at Work tune:

 

"I come from a land down under
Where beer does flow and men chunder
Can't you hear, can't you hear the thunder?
You better run, you better take cover, yeah"

 

[Marv's Neighbor]

The Draft is too speculative to EVER trade up.  WE should "suffer" at #9, or deal down for more picks.

[billsredneck1]

My prediction/plan....

1st rd. 

2nd rd.

3rd rd. 

Trade  4th/5th/ 7th  for 3rd

Trade 5th/ 6th  for 4th

 

That gives us....

1. Oliver

2. BPA Edge

3. Sternberger TE

3. McCoy  Center

4. BPA  WR  (Would love Iasbella to learn from Beasley). They may like a Kelvin Harmon here.

4. BPA   OL   ( Blue Chip Tackle)

 

They could move up for an extra 2nd.  I think Mcbeane will knock it out of the park with regard to fortifying the Dline (Dt and Edge). I expect they'll find a linebacker as well.   Maybe K. Hodge UFDA?   I think rather than trade down, I think they will take advantage of the good spots in rd. 1 and 2.

Other than that, I expect good players picked for OL/TE/WR/RB. They may skip RB altogether or go UFDA.

 

One thing that I was amazed at last year was that, each pick had quite a backstory. They sure seem to be able to find some gems.

Edited April 19, 2019 by billsredneck1

[Alphadawg7]

12 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

They will use that 2nd to move back into the first.  

 

I think it will be DL/OL, TE, OL/DL, RB.  I think we fill the trenches based on the value in this draft.

 

I agree with the one exception I believe one of our first 3 picks could still likely be a WR.  I have a feeling either DK or Harry will be a Bill, and probably Harry on the trade back up into the first round from our 2nd.

[thebandit27]

I think there's a fair chance that Buffalo will trade back up into the 1st round somewhere in the late 20's.

 

We know that Baltimore would like to move back, and they have the 22nd pick.  Buffalo swung a trade with them to move up last year; could it happen again?

 

Another possible landing spot would be Oakland at the 27th pick.  If they decide that they don't want to be in a position where they'll have to pay 3 first rounders a few years down the road, they could decide to drop back and gain a few picks.  In that case, you might see Buffalo give up picks 40, 74, and a 5th rounder to move up to 27.  Sure, Beane & Co. would be down to zero day 2 picks, but they'd still have 6 picks on day 3.  Of course, with that many day 3 picks, they could package them and move back into the end of round 3 if there's someone there that they really lie.

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I agree with the one exception I believe one of our first 3 picks could still likely be a WR.  I have a feeling either DK or Harry will be a Bill, and probably Harry on the trade back up into the first round from our 2nd.

Its possible.  The first couple of picks will be BPA.

 

I think it depends on if a TE or WR starts slipping down the draft board.  Say Hockenson slips down to 18.  I think you see next years first or second get traded with an additional pick this year.

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Its possible.  The first couple of picks will be BPA.

 

I think it depends on if a TE or WR starts slipping down the draft board.  Say Hockenson slips down to 18.  I think you see next years first or second get traded with an additional pick this year.

 

Totally agree.  I am in the camp that believes TJ goes earlier than a lot of people think though and may even go ahead of our 9th pick.  If Hock is there at 18 I very much see Beane trying to make a move to get him though. 

 

And yeah, will be BPA...but like I have previously said, BPA has need and want built in.  Its never 100% BPA in other words in terms of all player rankings.  Beane will build his draft board based on how they evaluate each player, how much weight they put on each position, and how they feel players fit what they want.  Then he will go BPA based on that board.  So totally agree it will be BPA, but its Beanes board BPA, not overall draft board.  

 

I just think Beane has put an impact offensive playmaker high on his list.  That could be a WR like DK or Harry, but also could very much be a TE like TJ or Fant too.  The one thing about the TE for me, is that he didnt bring in any of the top TE's for pre-draft visits and this is also a deep TE draft where some good ones could be there in rounds 2 through 4 too.  I think the WR drop off is pretty big in terms of finding that guy who can be a difference maker.  There are a lot of nice WR's, but I think Beane is more focused on that big time impact guy that can be a go to for years to come for Allen.  

 

Just my thoughts on what I think Beane is looking at.  While I do think DK is still a possibility at 9 (depending how draft falls), I do think that it may be more likely we go a different direction at 9 then target Harry in a trade up from 40.  

Edited April 19, 2019 by Alphadawg7