Bills 2019 NFL Draft: Buffalo Bills are taking D.K. Metcalf, says SI’s Gary Gramling

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, section122 said:

 

I stumbled across this when doing the board mock draft.  It is a compilation of released big boards.  

 

Not saying wrong or right but Metcalf falls in at the 13th highest average (15.5).  Sounds like what you are describing with Ward.

 

Yea as a consensus I think Metcalf is probably 2 places lower than Ward was but not significant. I thought Ward's floor was an elite nickel back - Chris Harris. To me that is much more of a contributor than I have Metcalf's floor. But it is a game of opinions. 

[Virgil]

That’s my worst case scenario 

[LABILLBACKER]

Somewhere Sammy Watkins is smirking....

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Well said...

 

And thank you...?

 

And all conjecture and conveniently leaving out facts.

 

People on this board like to think that this is a generational D because it "ranked" well the last 2 years in the NFL based on yards per game. I saw a capable, well schemed and opportunistic secondary (which is really just Hyde, White and Poyer to a degree), 2 average LBs and a DL that is unable to apply pressure on a QB. When our D needs to get a stop it can't and has been this way for years. Brady tears us apart because we cannot generate pressure upfront. 

[Alphadawg7]

21 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Whoa Whoa Whoa slow down bucko

 

1.) Yes - without much of a pass rush (and yes that is a big problem). We were #26 in sacks and 27 in yards lost on sacks = Big Problem

 

2.) Possibly true and possibly not - this is true for Jax for instance, this is not true for Indy. It also depended on if the game was out of reach and our opponent didn't pass as much and went into a run only mode. You can't be absolute like you did here because you leave out the other facts. the way the game unfolds definitely dictates what type of plays you will see. How many games were a blow out last year? 4-6 games were. We also were 8th worst on first downs given up from a rush

 

3.) #2 defense in what yards? Yards don't mean much. Points do and we were 18th at 23.4 and we were 13th worst for TDs allowed

 

4.) I believe ARZ had a worse offense than ours, but yes we were bad. We were the 8th best on 3rd down and 14th best on 4th down conversions. We also were 14th in the # of 3rd down attempts against us (we actually had the least amount of 4th down attempts made against us).

 

5.) Milano yes makes the D better, he was injured on Dec 10. We were still getting the ball run down our throats, not generating pressure with him in there for ~80% of the season.

 

6.) Edmunds will become better this year, but again our D didn't improve that much from the year before and Preston brown was there. 

 

Your points are all mostly conjuncture and yes some of it does play a role, but the fact remains and has remained our D does tend to get blown out and has trouble getting off the field at times. When a team goes up on us, they become more conservative to run the clock out and escape with as few as injuries as possible. Teh year before we relied on a lot of TOs to bail us out of games. TOs are not sustainable. SO you can state all of your thoughts that are not backed up by stats and your thoughts honestly are not factual. Show me the numbers to back your thoughts up?

 

What does the '85 Bears D have to do with this. People here tend to say look we have the #2 ranked D and conveniently leave out the stats to make them appear better than they are. Would you rather have the #2 ranked D based on Yards or based on Points what would you take? You can have the #2 ranked in yards and give up a F*&k ton of points...

 

Why don't we beat the Pats? We don't pressure Brady at all with our front 4. So no we don't have a Superbowl D, since he will kill us from the pocket everyday. PERIOD.

 

Anyways, we should be taking BPA in this draft @9. DK is not #9 material. Positional Value at the top of the draft should be QB, Pass Rusher, CB/WR

 

Im not disagreeing with you, I am simply pointing out that the freak out and gross exaggeration of the situation by the other poster is way over the top.

 

I seriously doubt there is a single person on this board that doesn't want to upgrade our pass rush and our run defense.  My point was that our defense is good enough for us to win with already and our future does not hinge on taking a defensive player at 9 as "Captain Overreact" Cornette's Commentary keeps ranting about.  

 

At the end of the day though, our defense had an enormous amount of pressure put on it due to the putrid offense during the first 9 games.  We went through 4 starting QBs, one of which was a rookie learning on the job after having to do a 3 way snap split during camp and preseason.  

 

Having Edmunds with a year under his belt, Milano back healthy, and Jordan here for a full offseason and camp will be good for this unit.  It was already good enough for us to be in the playoffs last year, but our offense held us back.  

 

I would be hard pressed to find a single game where we can pin the loss on the defense last year.   I can point to almost every loss as to a game we lost because our offense didn't do enough and one game where a ST blunder (Jets) cost us a win.  

 

So at the end of the day, your comments are all very reasonable and I have no real issue with them.  But...and its a big BUT...coming into this offseason the defense was light years in better shape than our offense.  And as we sit right now, we have added a lot of quality FA's to the offense, but we still lack that one major impact player.  Our defense has multiple impact players already on it in White, Hyde, Poyer, Hughes, Edmunds.  And its fair to say Milano played like one too before his injury.  

 

We don't need an 85 Bears D to win...what we need is a D that can be top 10 and keep the score lower than what our offense puts up.   

 

And for the record, I am totally fine taking a DL at 9.  My comments have simply been a reaction to the over the top reaction of that other poster.  But I will be ecstatic if we got DK or just as ecstatic if we went a different route at 9 and still got N'Keal Harry later.  

Edited April 17, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Paulus]

The Josh Allen of WRs...

 

McBeane is legit.  

18 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Somewhere Sammy Watkins is smirking....

While on the IR...

 

Jk, I love Sammy.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

We went through 4 starting QBs, one of which was a rookie learning on the job after having to do a 3 way snap split during camp and preseason.  

 

 

Why remains a mystery. The mystifying belief in the worst Quarterback to ever start multiple games in the NFL remains the biggest black mark against this regime.

[BobChalmers]

9 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I’m sure they don’t feel “set” at TE, but it’s a deep TE draft. There are many options beyond one guy, at pick 9.

 

Is it really though?  I watched all the TE's at the combine and past the Iowa duo it looked like a big pile of meh.

[Wayne Cubed]

53 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Whoa Whoa Whoa slow down bucko

 

1.) Yes - without much of a pass rush (and yes that is a big problem). We were #26 in sacks and 27 in yards lost on sacks = Big Problem

 

2.) Possibly true and possibly not - this is true for Jax for instance, this is not true for Indy. It also depended on if the game was out of reach and our opponent didn't pass as much and went into a run only mode. You can't be absolute like you did here because you leave out the other facts. the way the game unfolds definitely dictates what type of plays you will see. How many games were a blow out last year? 4-6 games were. We also were 8th worst on first downs given up from a rush

 

3.) #2 defense in what yards? Yards don't mean much. Points do and we were 18th at 23.4 and we were 13th worst for TDs allowed

 

4.) I believe ARZ had a worse offense than ours, but yes we were bad. We were the 8th best on 3rd down and 14th best on 4th down conversions. We also were 14th in the # of 3rd down attempts against us (we actually had the least amount of 4th down attempts made against us).

 

5.) Milano yes makes the D better, he was injured on Dec 10. We were still getting the ball run down our throats, not generating pressure with him in there for ~80% of the season.

 

6.) Edmunds will become better this year, but again our D didn't improve that much (neither did the LB position) from the year before and Preston Brown was there. 

 

Your points are all mostly conjuncture and yes some of it does play a role, but the fact remains and has remained our D does tend to get blown out and has trouble getting off the field at times. When a team goes up on us, they become more conservative to run the clock out and escape with as few as injuries as possible. Teh year before we relied on a lot of TOs to bail us out of games. TOs are not sustainable. SO you can state all of your thoughts that are not backed up by stats and your thoughts honestly are not factual. Show me the numbers to back your thoughts up?

 

What does the '85 Bears D have to do with this. People here tend to say look we have the #2 ranked D and conveniently leave out the stats to make them appear better than they are. Would you rather have the #2 ranked D based on Yards or based on Points what would you take? You can have the #2 ranked in yards and give up a F*&k ton of points...

 

Why don't we beat the Pats? We don't pressure Brady at all with our front 4. So no we don't have a Superbowl D, since he will kill us from the pocket everyday. PERIOD.

 

Anyways, we should be taking BPA in this draft @9. DK is not #9 material. Positional Value at the top of the draft should be QB, Pass Rusher, CB/WR

 

While I tend to agree with what you have posted, I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle in terms of the Bills defense. The advanced defensive statistics bear that out a bit more because as you say not all games are created equal. I think it’s better to rank teams in terms of drives against efficiency. 

 

They’re is no debating the Bills had the worst average drive starting yards, which was on average their own 32.6. That’s awful and just shows how bad the special teams were last year. It also helps explain how they were able to keep yards lower as most teams didn’t have to drive as far down the field.

 

They also had the 3rd most drives against, 189. That’s 35 more than the Saints drives against, that’s ridiculous. I think that shows how often the offense gave the ball back.

 

Saying that, the Bills defense had the 7th lowest percentage of drives ending in points. Only 33% of those 189 drives ended in a score. They also had the 11th lowest points per drive. Those are both pretty good considering the amount of drives they faced. 

 

I agree with you I don’t think they were the 2nd best defense, I’d have probably placed them somewhere between 5-10 and have thought all offseason they need help up front on the DL. Consider who on the DL is signed past 2020, 1 player.

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im not disagreeing with you, I am simply pointing out that the freak out and gross exaggeration of the situation by the other poster is way over the top.

 

I seriously doubt there is a single person on this board that doesn't want to upgrade our pass rush and our run defense.  My point was that our defense is good enough for us to win with already and our future does not hinge on taking a defensive player at 9 as "Captain Overreact" Cornette's Commentary keeps ranting about.  

 

At the end of the day though, our defense had an enormous amount of pressure put on it due to the putrid offense during the first 9 games.  We went through 4 starting QBs, one of which was a rookie learning on the job after having to do a 3 way snap split during camp and preseason.  

 

Having Edmunds with a year under his belt, Milano back healthy, and Jordan here for a full offseason and camp will be good for this unit.  It was already good enough for us to be in the playoffs last year, but our offense held us back.  

 

I would be hard pressed to find a single game where we can pin the loss on the defense last year.   I can point to almost every loss as to a game we lost because our offense didn't do enough and one game where a ST blunder (Jets) cost us a win.  

 

So at the end of the day, your comments are all very reasonable and I have no real issue with them.  But...and its a big BUT...coming into this offseason the defense was light years in better shape than our offense.  And as we sit right now, we have added a lot of quality FA's to the offense, but we still lack that one major impact player.  Our defense has multiple impact players already on it in White, Hyde, Poyer, Hughes, Edmunds.  And its fair to say Milano played like one too before his injury.  

 

We don't need an 85 Bears D to win...what we need is a D that can be top 10 and keep the score lower than what our offense puts up.   

 

And for the record, I am totally fine taking a DL at 9.  My comments have simply been a reaction to the over the top reaction of that other poster.  But I will be ecstatic if we got DK or just as ecstatic if we went a different route at 9 and still got N'Keal Harry later.  

 

BTW I wasn't being $hitty with you and I hope it didn't come across that way. I know you were responding to someone else; just felt like I needed to clarify my points! I may  have been a bit pointed in some of my responses but those weren't directed at you, some other posts in other threads influenced me.

 

This is the first draft in a long time where I am truly OK with BPA. I actually would love to see us move to 5,6 or 8 and grab the DL we want, if the draft falls strangely. I wouldn't feel good about moving back unless again the draft falls strangely and the true impact top-tier guys can't be had. I like Harry a lot too. 

[Reed83HOF]

48 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

While I tend to agree with what you have posted, I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle in terms of the Bills defense. The advanced defensive statistics bear that out a bit more because as you say not all games are created equal. I think it’s better to rank teams in terms of drives against efficiency. 

 

They’re is no debating the Bills had the worst average drive starting yards, which was on average their own 32.6. That’s awful and just shows how bad the special teams were last year. It also helps explain how they were able to keep yards lower as most teams didn’t have to drive as far down the field.

 

They also had the 3rd most drives against, 189. That’s 35 more than the Saints drives against, that’s ridiculous. I think that shows how often the offense gave the ball back.

 

Saying that, the Bills defense had the 7th lowest percentage of drives ending in points. Only 33% of those 189 drives ended in a score. They also had the 11th lowest points per drive. Those are both pretty good considering the amount of drives they faced. 

 

I agree with you I don’t think they were the 2nd best defense, I’d have probably placed them somewhere between 5-10 and have thought all offseason they need help up front on the DL. Consider who on the DL is signed past 2020, 1 player.

 

LOL I agree, I purposely swung it the other way - it's isn't a top 2 or even top 5 defense.

 

"They also had the 3rd most drives against, 189. That’s 35 more than the Saints drives against, that’s ridiculous. I think that shows how often the offense gave the ball back."

 

^^^^This is 100000% correct

 

I think with this draft you have to look at:

 

1.) "Consider who on the DL is signed past 2020, 1 player." Hughes will also be 30 (and an FA). This is a deep draft on the DL and we can definitely fills some holes now and in the future. Due to this drraft being loaded with talent throughout the rounds, next year will be pretty thin. The top guys in this draft Oliver, WIlliams, Bosa, Allen are that much better than the next crop. Sweat falls into here as well.

 

2.) No consensus #1 WR like Calvin (just using him on purpose because of this thread, but is a good illustrative point). There are lots of good options throughout the draft, again I cannot spend #9 there. Is the dropoff from DK to Harry, brown et al that much? Nope

 

3.) Look in Madden, aside from Tyreek HIll (who I have used the last couple versions) a huge vertical fast receiving TE is a must for me and I love that position. The draft is deep here and at this juncture, I'm not sure I can spend #9 on a TE. Fant, Smith, Sternberger can provide similar value imo. But yeah I would like Hock a lot. From a positional value vs DL. I cannot go TE. Is he really going to catch 100 balls and go over 1000 yards with double digit TDs consistently enough for #9?

 

4.) OL - Meh. We spent a lot of money on OL this offseason and I don't see a Quentin Nelson in this draft. I know how important OL is, but if it is BPA (Taylor - convinced he'll go to Jax) at 9 so be it.

 

5.) Greedy Williams? Meh, but okay if you slide back.

 

IMO the 2020 draft is going to be a bit thin due to the record number of underclassman in this draft and DL will have a talent shortage (like LBs this year). I might trade our 2020 first to move up and to try to protect our second this year. We would have more than enough to slide back around in RD3 with out extra picks. You also have to have enough belief that we will be picking outside of the top 15 and that the talent dropoff is similar to last year where after the top 10ish the values were the same through rd2...

Edit: I do like NYG as a partner if they truly aren't going QB this year. Gives them 2 #1's for next year...

Edited April 17, 2019 by Reed83HOF

[tcampbell104]

if they take him and he works out this cffense will be dynamite

[Alphadawg7]

42 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

BTW I wasn't being $hitty with you and I hope it didn't come across that way. I know you were responding to someone else; just felt like I needed to clarify my points! I may  have been a bit pointed in some of my responses but those weren't directed at you, some other posts in other threads influenced me.

 

This is the first draft in a long time where I am truly OK with BPA. I actually would love to see us move to 5,6 or 8 and grab the DL we want, if the draft falls strangely. I wouldn't feel good about moving back unless again the draft falls strangely and the true impact top-tier guys can't be had. I like Harry a lot too. 

 

Ditto bud, all good brother!  

[billsredneck1]

11 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

Zero chance huh?

That's a pretty obtuse and ignorant statement.

Foster, while promising, hasn't proven himself.

He has just as much garbage games as good ones.

Beasley is a b+ slot guy, great pickup, but not a OMG BEST WR EVER

Brown has been inconsistent at best in his career.

Zay Jones is wildly inconsistent.

Nobody can cover our guys?

This is one of the most honer-filled posts I've seen here in a long time.

Put down the koolaid bro.

so he's a physical freak. however scouting reports that exclaim his 40 time, also point out it's straight line speed. i've not heard anyone gush over his route tree or route running.  he wasn't even the best receiver on his team.

 

i'm not putting him down, but at no.9 you need a star at a position of need.  the hole kyle left leaves us wide open to have our defense  be the side of the ball to drag us down record wise.  there's no way in hell that drafting dk is gonna cover that up.

 

i would rather they get a couple of difference makers on the dline. if we ignore that hole on d, we could end up going 8-8 with a top ten offense.  omg, flashback!...25 years worth!

 

 

i will absolutely trust their decisions, but there's just no argument that dk could be bpa at no. 9....none

Edited April 18, 2019 by billsredneck1

[MrEpsYtown]

What's with all the new posters crapping all over everyone's takes? I guess its draft time. 

[Solomon Grundy]

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/3/13/18257343/dk-metcalf-nfl-draft-2019-combine-scouting-report-receiver-breakdown

[K-9]

5 minutes ago, the skycap said:

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/3/13/18257343/dk-metcalf-nfl-draft-2019-combine-scouting-report-receiver-breakdown

Per the bold from a paragraph in the article, if Stephen Wright needs to ask where folks might think his slow agility times might translate to the field, I have to question his credibility. Especially because in the sentence immediately preceding that, he says he “gets the concerns.” 

 

Quote

And look, I know a lot of people are focusing on Metcalf’s “slow” short shuttle and three-cone times, and I definitely get the concerns. I guess I’m just wondering where those folks think the slow short shuttle and three-cone times are going to translate in a negative way to Metcalf’s play on the field.

 

[Reed83HOF]

8 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Per the bold from a paragraph in the article, if Stephen Wright needs to ask where folks might think his slow agility times might translate to the field, I have to question his credibility. Especially because in the sentence immediately preceding that, he says he “gets the concerns.” 

 

 

Well when you listen to Steve Wright
 

[K-9]

1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said:

Well when you listen to Steve Wright
 

He was great back in the day. 

[glazeduck]

47 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:

so he's a physical freak. however scouting reports that exclaim his 40 time, also point out it's straight line speed. i've not heard anyone gush over his route tree or route running.  he wasn't even the best receiver on his team.

 

i'm not putting him down, but at no.9 you need a star at a position of need.  the hole kyle left leaves us wide open to have our defense  be the side of the ball to drag us down record wise.  there's no way in hell that drafting dk is gonna cover that up.

 

i would rather they get a couple of difference makers on the dline. if we ignore that hole on d, we could end up going 8-8 with a top ten offense.  omg, flashback!...25 years worth!

 

  

i will absolutely trust their decisions, but there's just no argument that dk could be bpa at no. 9....none

Of course there's an argument that he could be BPA at 9. He's a generational athlete at a position of need whose comps are some of the best WRs of the past few decades (if not ever) -- that is the argument. 

 

While none of your points above are really wrong, they're also not necessarily the point, and I think that's the biggest thing that Metcalf deniers are missing. Not every WR needs to be a blur when it comes to short area quickness. Not every WR is going to win with precise routes. A guy built like Mecole Hardman is going to have a natural advantage in the agility game, just like a motorcycle is going to be more agile than a mack truck -- that doesn't mean that the motorcycle can't be more effective in certain things.  DK Metcalf wasn't ever going to be a jitterbug, but if you watch his film, look at his makeup (height/weight/bulk/strength/wingspan) and how he uses those to his advantage, he doesn't need to. As others have posted, we wouldn't be asking him to run the same routes as, say, Cole Beasley, and that's okay. 

 

To your point about not being the best player on his team, that's also not really the point -- firstly, he was every bit as good as Brown when he was on the field, secondly he fits the type of player we need far better than Brown. 

 

Everyone has their own opinions on the draft and its prospects, that's what makes it so much fun, but to say that DK Metcalf doesn't have star potential or that "there's just no argument that dk could be bpa at no. 9....none" is peak silliness. It may end being Oliver (size), Sweat (still developing as a pass-rusher), Taylor (can he transition to LT?), Hock (value of drafting TE at 9?), Burns (size), or (god help us...) Gary (unproven at his projected position) but each of these guys have as many question marks as DK Metcalf.

Edited April 18, 2019 by glazeduck