Daniel Jeremiah mock #3 (Hockenson to Bills)

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, thunderingsquid said:

Mocked Hock?  Not a shock.  

 

Then I guess it's a lock....

[Logic]

2 hours ago, thunderingsquid said:

Mocked Hock?  Not a shock.  

 

This move would rock!

1 hour ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

You'd be elated to watch a defensive line that won't be able to get to the quarterback or stop the run?  Is your plan for them to use a 2nd on Khalen Saunders from the vaunted Western Illinois defense and hope that he turns into the next Aaron Donald or Fletcher Cox?

If that really is your plan, I hope watching Hockenson catch 300 passes for 40 touchdowns brings you joy, as the defense gets gashed in the running game week in and week out.

Oh for chrissakes....

We can play this game in both directions.

"If your plan is to not address tight end in a meaningful way, then I hope you enjoy watching a stout defense, but an offense that can't block for McCoy on the edges and can't beat a defense up the seam because they only have Tyler freaking Kroft and a converted tackle at the position!"

Over-dramatized, oversimplified hyperbole.

Booooooooo

1 hour ago, Cornette's Commentary said:

Allen could put up 500 yards and 5 TDs a game, and it won't mean a thing if they're always playing from behind because they struggle at stopping the run or pressuring the QB.

Did you enjoy watching Leonard Fournette and Marlon Mack torch the defense last season?

I mean....you DO remember the Bills finishing as the 2nd ranked defense last season? You're talking as if the Bills defense is awful, and they're just not.

[JM57]

7 minutes ago, hjnick said:

This is the Beane quote that stood out to me..

"If your down at this level in the draft, let's just say you're at 25, and you have a guy that is on the top tier of your draft board. The first round, I divide it into three (tiers): top, middle and bottom. If you have a guy in the top tier, he's by himself up there and think he's a real impact - you're talking about a rare player at his position, that might be the time to do it. But you also have to consider what is the cost? Is the cost too much where it's going to effect the rest of your draft or potentially future drafts?"

 

Like it is has always been, it really depends on how Beane (and the staff) see Hock. If he's a Gronk style of player (all pro, good at all 3 phases), he will be considered for the 9th pick.  Anything less than a Gronk style player and they will pass.

 

With that mock, I'd love for Buffalo to trade down to around 13 and Hock still might be there...

I think Detroit at 8 and Green Bay at 12 are the ones to worry about around the Bills. Jimmy Graham is Jimmy Graham in name only at this point and he could make that passing game even more dangerous. 

 

I think they may surprise us with Hockenson. They learned the value of a QB and MLB with Newton and Kuechly and swung for the fences last year to get Allen and Edmunds. 

 

They also know the value of a top tier TE from Greg Olsen. Whether it's Hockenson or Fant or Sternberger, I think they're really interested in getting one in with one of the first few picks 

[starrymessenger]

There is no doubt that Hock would be a great addition and really an ideal way to round out all of the excellent work Beane has already done to try and help out JA in the passing game at the line, on the outside and in the slot. So I think he'd be a good pick and I'd have no problem getting behind it. But if an outstanding 3T or edge guy is there (or even close enuf to justify a cost efficient trade up) at the top of the draft that is the direction I'd go in. You need to pressure the passer and we don't do that nearly well enough. That would do more for our D than Hock would do for our O which is just another way of saying it would do more for the team as a whole. They signed a good blocking TE who can also probably help out in the passing game and they have a guy already on the roster (for now) who should be able to contribute in that regard. And Hock is not the only TE in the draft. JMO but I suspect that Hock goes toward the middle of the first at best and maybe even a bit later. I'm not taking him at 9. Having said that I respect Jeremiah's opinion. He called Spiller if memory serves. 

[Mat68]

Williams is the best defender in the draft.  It's very unlikely he makes it to 5 let alone 9.  Williams is a no brainer at 9.  He is the same athlete Oliver is but weighs 40  more pds.  

[MrEpsYtown]

9 minutes ago, hjnick said:

This is the Beane quote that stood out to me..

"If your down at this level in the draft, let's just say you're at 25, and you have a guy that is on the top tier of your draft board. The first round, I divide it into three (tiers): top, middle and bottom. If you have a guy in the top tier, he's by himself up there and think he's a real impact - you're talking about a rare player at his position, that might be the time to do it. But you also have to consider what is the cost? Is the cost too much where it's going to effect the rest of your draft or potentially future drafts?"

 

Like it is has always been, it really depends on how Beane (and the staff) see Hock. If he's a Gronk style of player (all pro, good at all 3 phases), he will be considered for the 9th pick.  Anything less than a Gronk style player and they will pass.

 

With that mock, I'd love for Buffalo to trade down to around 13 and Hock still might be there...

 

I think that word "rare" stands out to me. Hockenson is a rare player at his position, the kind of guy we have not seen come out in a long time. The other thing with Hockenson that I think many people ignore is that he came out early. If he went back to school next year, with Fant gone, he would have been their go to guy, put up massive numbers, and probably talked about as a top 5 pick next year. I'm okay with the pick. 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, jahnyc said:

I also have a feeling that we are trading for Clark.  Was Dan Morgan with Seattle when Clark was drafted?

 

Yes, he's been with Seattle for almost a decade now.

[GG]

Surprised BADOL hasn't chimed in with his replacement value theory on the Hock debate.  While Hockenson may be the top TE in this draft, it's ridiculous to consider him at the Top 10.  He's the best TE in a generally weak TE draft class, and the replacement value for what he will provide is definitely less than #9.   

 

Said another way, would anyone trade the #9 pick to the Saints for Jared Cook?

[billspro]

I think the Bills take Devin White in that situation, even though it’s not a need.

[transplantbillsfan]

I don't know who subscribes to The Athletic, but I stumbled onto this massive draft guide by Dane Brugler he calls "The Beast" because he takes 10 months to put it together after starting in June.

 

He actually ranks the prospects and has pretty detailed descriptions about each one. Here's what he said about Hockenson (and notice where he ranks him):

 

1. T.J. HOCKENSON | Iowa 6046 | 251 lbs. | rSO. Chariton, Iowa (Chariton) 7/3/1997 (age 21.82) #38

BACKGROUND: A three-star tight end recruit out of high school, T.J. Hockenson was a four-year starter at Chariton as a tight end and safety. He was used as more of a wideout than traditional tight end in high school and the offense was centered around his receiving skills, finishing his career with a school-record 238 catches for 
3,560 yards and 49 touchdowns. As a senior, Hockenson posted 85 receptions for 1,219 yards and 17 touchdowns, adding 39 tackles and two interceptions on defense to earn First Team All-State honors for the third straight year. He was also a standout basketball player, scoring 1,890 career points and earning Second Team 
All-State honors twice. Coming from a smaller school, Hockenson wasn’t considered a top-50 tight end recruit, but in-state programs like Iowa State and Northern Iowa offered him quickly. However, once Iowa (his favorite team growing up) offered him prior to his senior year, he became a Hawkeye. After his prolific 2018 
season, Hockenson elected to leave school early and enter the 2019 NFL Draft.

YEAR (GP/GS) REC YDS AVG TD NOTES
2016: Redshirted
2017: (13/12) 24 320 13.3 3
2018: (13/13) 49 760 15.5 6 Second Team All-American; John Mackey Award; Kwalick-Clark Big Ten TE of the Year; First Team All-Big Ten
Total: (26/25) 73 1,080 14.8 9
HT WT ARM HAND WING 40-YD 20-YD 10-YD VJ BJ SS 3C BP
COMBINE 6046 251 32 1/4 09 1/2 77 7/8 4.70 2.75 1.63 37 1/2 10’03” 4.18 7.02 17
PRO DAY N/A (stood on Combine numbers; positional drills only)

STRENGTHS: Above-average athleticism…natural pass-catching abilities with his body control, reflexes and hand-eye coordination…reliable hands…clean releases off the line of scrimmage…sticks his foot in the ground and accelerates off his plant to press defenders off the route…finds the sticks and achieves proper depth in his patterns…legitimate downfield threat (averaged 11.5 yards per target in 2018)…ambitious after the catch, flashing tackle-breaking skills (seven catches of 30-plus yards in 2018)…outstanding finisher as a blocker…latches, runs his feet and drives his target off the screen…competitive appetite and wired right for the pro game…productive and durable career in Iowa City.

WEAKNESSES: Doesn’t have ideal size and bulk for the position…overeager at times as a blocker and can get tossed when he arrives off-balance…bad habit of ducking his head into initial contact…tends to rush his routes at times and needs to better set up sitting defenders.

SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Iowa, Hockenson paired with Noah Fant to form the best tight end duo in college football, lining up inline and slot in the Hawkeyes’ pro-style scheme. He became the second tight end in school history with 750-plus receiving yards in a season and joined Dallas Clark as the only Hawkeyes to win the Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end. Despite not blocking in high school, Hockenson has developed into an elite blocker with the functional strength and competitive spirit to physically overwhelm defenders at the point of attack. Although he would benefit from added nuance as a route runner, his basketball background is obvious with the agility and catch radius to be an impact weapon downfield. Overall, Hockenson has a complete skill set for the position with 
outstanding athleticism, pass-catching traits and blocking skills, projecting as an immediate NFL starter with Pro Bowl potential.

GRADE: 1st Round (#6 overall)

[JM57]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I don't know who subscribes to The Athletic, but I stumbled onto this massive draft guide by Dane Brugler he calls "The Beast" because he takes 10 months to put it together after starting in June.

 

He actually ranks the prospects and has pretty detailed descriptions about each one. Here's what he said about Hockenson (and notice where he ranks him):

 

1. T.J. HOCKENSON | Iowa 6046 | 251 lbs. | rSO. Chariton, Iowa (Chariton) 7/3/1997 (age 21.82) #38

BACKGROUND: A three-star tight end recruit out of high school, T.J. Hockenson was a four-year starter at Chariton as a tight end and safety. He was used as more of a wideout than traditional tight end in high school and the offense was centered around his receiving skills, finishing his career with a school-record 238 catches for 
3,560 yards and 49 touchdowns. As a senior, Hockenson posted 85 receptions for 1,219 yards and 17 touchdowns, adding 39 tackles and two interceptions on defense to earn First Team All-State honors for the third straight year. He was also a standout basketball player, scoring 1,890 career points and earning Second Team 
All-State honors twice. Coming from a smaller school, Hockenson wasn’t considered a top-50 tight end recruit, but in-state programs like Iowa State and Northern Iowa offered him quickly. However, once Iowa (his favorite team growing up) offered him prior to his senior year, he became a Hawkeye. After his prolific 2018 
season, Hockenson elected to leave school early and enter the 2019 NFL Draft.

YEAR (GP/GS) REC YDS AVG TD NOTES
2016: Redshirted
2017: (13/12) 24 320 13.3 3
2018: (13/13) 49 760 15.5 6 Second Team All-American; John Mackey Award; Kwalick-Clark Big Ten TE of the Year; First Team All-Big Ten
Total: (26/25) 73 1,080 14.8 9
HT WT ARM HAND WING 40-YD 20-YD 10-YD VJ BJ SS 3C BP
COMBINE 6046 251 32 1/4 09 1/2 77 7/8 4.70 2.75 1.63 37 1/2 10’03” 4.18 7.02 17
PRO DAY N/A (stood on Combine numbers; positional drills only)

STRENGTHS: Above-average athleticism…natural pass-catching abilities with his body control, reflexes and hand-eye coordination…reliable hands…clean releases off the line of scrimmage…sticks his foot in the ground and accelerates off his plant to press defenders off the route…finds the sticks and achieves proper depth in his patterns…legitimate downfield threat (averaged 11.5 yards per target in 2018)…ambitious after the catch, flashing tackle-breaking skills (seven catches of 30-plus yards in 2018)…outstanding finisher as a blocker…latches, runs his feet and drives his target off the screen…competitive appetite and wired right for the pro game…productive and durable career in Iowa City.

WEAKNESSES: Doesn’t have ideal size and bulk for the position…overeager at times as a blocker and can get tossed when he arrives off-balance…bad habit of ducking his head into initial contact…tends to rush his routes at times and needs to better set up sitting defenders.

SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Iowa, Hockenson paired with Noah Fant to form the best tight end duo in college football, lining up inline and slot in the Hawkeyes’ pro-style scheme. He became the second tight end in school history with 750-plus receiving yards in a season and joined Dallas Clark as the only Hawkeyes to win the Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end. Despite not blocking in high school, Hockenson has developed into an elite blocker with the functional strength and competitive spirit to physically overwhelm defenders at the point of attack. Although he would benefit from added nuance as a route runner, his basketball background is obvious with the agility and catch radius to be an impact weapon downfield. Overall, Hockenson has a complete skill set for the position with 
outstanding athleticism, pass-catching traits and blocking skills, projecting as an immediate NFL starter with Pro Bowl potential.

GRADE: 1st Round (#6 overall)

Been working my way through The Beast since it was published. Brugler does quality work.

[MrEpsYtown]

4 minutes ago, GG said:

Surprised BADOL hasn't chimed in with his replacement value theory on the Hock debate.  While Hockenson may be the top TE in this draft, it's ridiculous to consider him at the Top 10.  He's the best TE in a generally weak TE draft class, and the replacement value for what he will provide is definitely less than #9.   

 

Said another way, would anyone trade the #9 pick to the Saints for Jared Cook?

 

I think the reason people like Hockenson is that he is a bit of a unicorn. He's a rare traditional tight end who can do everything at a very high level. A guy like Tyler Kroft can do a bit of everything, but nothing elite. Hock gives you elite in every aspect of the game and that is rare. I think at best he winds up being the second coming of Gronk and at the very worst he's Heath Miller or Kyle Rudolph. Cook is a 1 dimensional player, who can't block and has been a journeyman for a reason. I don't know about replacement value stuff, but I do think Hockenson is unique and needs to be treated that way. Most draft people think he is maybe the 5th or 6th best player in the draft overall. 

[Chicken Boo]

Beane is smarter than that.  

 

Hockensen over Montez Sweat? 

 

? ok.

[GG]

2 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I think the reason people like Hockenson is that he is a bit of a unicorn. He's a rare traditional tight end who can do everything at a very high level. A guy like Tyler Kroft can do a bit of everything, but nothing elite. Hock gives you elite in every aspect of the game and that is rare. I think at best he winds up being the second coming of Gronk and at the very worst he's Heath Miller or Kyle Rudolph. Cook is a 1 dimensional player, who can't block and has been a journeyman for a reason. I don't know about replacement value stuff, but I do think Hockenson is unique and needs to be treated that way. Most draft people think he is maybe the 5th or 6th best player in the draft overall. 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't the same things written about OJ Howard & Ebron?  I think there's a valid reason why TEs don't go high in the draft - it usually takes them very long to acclimate to NFL, and by the time they do, they're past their rookie deals and equal value may be found either through later round picks or FA

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, DJB said:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001026563/article/daniel-jeremiah-2019-nfl-mock-draft-30-drew-lock-to-packers

 

Jeremiah mocks who he thinks the team will pick and he thinks Bills take Hockenson 

 

Any Iowa fans with insight between Hock and Noah?  While this year hock produce more yards the past two years they look similar. Noah has May more tds 

[DJB]

1 minute ago, GG said:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't the same things written about OJ Howard & Ebron?  I think there's a valid reason why TEs don't go high in the draft - it usually takes them very long to acclimate to NFL, and by the time they do, they're past their rookie deals and equal value may be found either through later round picks or FA

 

Ebron was never considered an inline Y tight end.

 

Many are saying Hockenson is the best blocking TE in the last decade of drafts 

[MrEpsYtown]

15 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't the same things written about OJ Howard & Ebron?  I think there's a valid reason why TEs don't go high in the draft - it usually takes them very long to acclimate to NFL, and by the time they do, they're past their rookie deals and equal value may be found either through later round picks or FA

 

Ebron was seen as more of an athlete and a flexed tight end in the vein of a Graham type. He was not a great blocker and very inconsistent but had athletic upside and found a home as more of a #2 in Indy. 

 

Howard is closer to Hock in type and ability but he was seen as a huge underachiever, and hasn't really busted out in the NFL. He was a 5 star guy who did very little at Bama, so people questioned his heart and effort. Honestly, his NFL production is still pretty underwhelming considering his physical skill set. 

 

I think Hockenson is a different animal altogether.

Edited April 16, 2019 by MrEpsYtown

[Nihilarian]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2019-nfl-draft-iowas-t-j-hockenson-is-destroyer-of-worlds-as-a-blocker-dynamic-pass-catcher/

 

2019 NFL Draft: Iowa's T.J. Hockenson is destroyer of worlds as a blocker, dynamic pass-catcher by Chris Trapasso

 

 NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks lists Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson is one of the "gold jacket" prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft class.

 

https://www.rotoworld.com/college-football/nfl-draft/player/39502/tj-hockenson

 

Brooks compares Hockenson to Jason Witten.

[purple haze]

I wouldn't be upset if the Bills picked Hockenson.  However, I would prefer a front 7 piece for the D.  Cole Beasley is supposed to be Allen's security blanket underneath.

[thunderingsquid]

50 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Then I guess it's a lock....

I'll have my popcorn ready when the Bills are on the clock.