Peace Frog Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 (edited) With the draft right around the corner (11 days, 6 hrs, 9 mins as of this posting, but who's counting?), I thought this informative article would show people a little draft history. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft Edited April 14, 2019 by Peace Frog 3
Chandler#81 Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 Interesting study. LB & OG are safest, QB, WR & RB most dangerous. DL better than average. I don’t expect a game changing LB at 9, so OT it is -by this measure. 1
SouthNYfan Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said: Interesting study. LB & OG are safest, QB, WR & RB most dangerous. DL better than average. I don’t expect a game changing LB at 9, so OT it is -by this measure. I wonder if it's because those positions play the most similar from college to pro game? Qb, wr, rb probably see the biggest differences in college career pro schemes, so they gave the hardest transition, as well as they are the hardest to project. I wonder if teams reach for them more often as well, where a ot/ol or lb are typicy but drafted high unless they are clearly a game changer 1
Johnny Hammersticks Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said: Interesting study. LB & OG are safest, QB, WR & RB most dangerous. DL better than average. I don’t expect a game changing LB at 9, so OT it is -by this measure. I think there is a chance Devin White falls to 9. 1
SouthNYfan Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said: I think there is a chance Devin White falls to 9. He's pretty good. I mean I've got my top3 (Oliver, hock, DK, in no particular order) but I wouldn't be too upset with white at #9 if he is there. Edited April 14, 2019 by SouthNYfan Typo
Reader Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 Interesting. Safety looks fairly reliable although I'm then reminded of Lil' Donte who was a pro-bowler. 1 1
BuffaloBill Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 The study shows why I have concerns with people saying we should take a WR or TE at 9. It smells of over-reaching for need vs. using the pick wisely. 1
ghostwriter Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 I've always thought DT was dangerous to draft high. Just strikes me as a pretty underwhelming position to draft high. On the flipside I feel like centers should be taken much higher. TE is another position i feel that deserves more respect and drafted more urgently.
y2zipper Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 37 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said: I wonder if it's because those positions play the most similar from college to pro game? Qb, wr, rb probably see the biggest differences in college career pro schemes, so they gave the hardest transition, as well as they are the hardest to project. With the combine it's really easy to scout who the best athletes are, so somebody who's a great athlete that plays a position that's similar to college ball is a good player. I could see this being why Guard, Safety and Linebacker are the safest. In most cases, it's a lot harder to scout a position where the skills and skill level changes a lot. Quarterback especially is the most overdrafted position and I'm not convinced anybody has a clue how to evaluate them. 2
LSHMEAB Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Doc Brown said: Wish they would've separated DE and DT. My hunch is that DT would be "safer" than DE. There seems to be an Aaron Maybin or 2 in the first round of every draft. 1
SouthNYfan Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 19 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said: My hunch is that DT would be "safer" than DE. There seems to be an Aaron Maybin or 2 in the first round of every draft. I think DT is safer, with a higher floor generally I think there are less all pro elite DT that de though as well I really do think they should have separated them 1
Peace Frog Posted April 14, 2019 Author Posted April 14, 2019 4 hours ago, Doc Brown said: Wish they would've separated DE and DT. You've gotta keep'em separated. 1
TigerJ Posted April 14, 2019 Posted April 14, 2019 5 hours ago, BuffaloBill said: The study shows why I have concerns with people saying we should take a WR or TE at 9. It smalls of over-reaching for need vs. using the pick wisely. I would only have concerns with what people say if I thought Brandon Beane listens to anybody outside the team structure when it comes to making a draft pick. Fans can spout foolishness all they want. LOL
Steve Billieve Posted April 15, 2019 Posted April 15, 2019 I wonder how much a list like this might be influenced by a lack of consensus over the best players at positions that are the "most safe".
Ethan in Cleveland Posted April 15, 2019 Posted April 15, 2019 Hmm. I wonder if this is just a numbers issue. In each conference, there are two guards, two tackles, two safeties, and four linebackers named All-Pro. Typically there is only one TE. That would not explain everything like the fact only a single center is named and they have a high success rare at least two WRs are named and they have a low success rate.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted April 15, 2019 Posted April 15, 2019 12 hours ago, Chandler#81 said: Interesting study. LB & OG are safest, QB, WR & RB most dangerous. DL better than average. I don’t expect a game changing LB at 9, so OT it is -by this measure. Could be LB as well. Maybe the Devins TEs do have second highest rate of prow bowlers , just saying ... (Hockenson) Interesting RBs have been bigger busts than QBs.
Gugny Posted April 15, 2019 Posted April 15, 2019 They provided decent logic as to why it's not wise to use "how many became All-Pros," as an indicator. However, they lost me when they said they'd use, "how many became Pro Bowlers," instead. Stopped reading right there.
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