GunnerBill Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: Fair enough. But good evaluators can have different views. I mean, Daniel Jeremiah has Hockenson, Christian Wilkins, Josh Jacobs and Devin Bush in the top nine of his big board. And Gary tenth. And that's on a board with no QBs in the top ten. I like Burns a lot, actually. Maybe I could change my mind a bit. I don't do nearly the work that you appear to do, but I like Jonah Williams quite a bit. I don't know enough about Ferrell to have a sensible opinion. I like Wilkins and Bush too - wouldn't hate either of those. Wouldn't be a big fan of Hock and definitely not Jacobs (isn't even my RB1). My big board only has 3 true first round grades on offense and Jonah is one of them, so I do like him (Murray and Taylor are the others). Then I have Haskins, Hock and Cody Ford as borderline 1st/2nds. EDIT: and totally agree good evaluators can have different views and I think DJ is an outstanding evaluator. Big Boards and mocks are different though. That is another point worth making. I still like Greedy Williams a lot too and I know that would be an unpopular pick on the board as a whole but I could get behind it. Edited April 10, 2019 by GunnerBill
Logic Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 Really? To me it seems like there will be lots of mans to pick from.
KGun12TD Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 Unless Quinnen Williams is there, I WANT OLIVER.
Kirby Jackson Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I don't think White makes it past the Buccs myself. Either #4 to the Raiders or #5 to the Buccs. I don’t think so either but I could see Oliver and Williams in those slots. If he is there at 9 he will almost certainly be BPA. 1
ghostwriter Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said: I think too many people are way overthinking the draft. DL has not been addressed in FA (yet). Beane knows the draft has a lot of DLs early. He has an early pick. Odds are he picks a DL at #9. Hock is an option. Devin White is an option. WR is an option. I think we're going BPA... Hard to say who it will be, there's 8 teams in front of us with a mind of their own.
Rochesterfan Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: What if only one Quarterback goes? Still think we are definitely getting a shot at one of those three (not that I'd love the Taylor pick personally). I see the first 8 position players off the board as: Bosa, Oliver, Q. Williams, Allen, White, Gary, Sweat and Taylor. To get one of those to drop we need Haskins (or Lock but that is unlikely in my mind) to go before our pick. So are you assuming Murray does not go #1? Picking 9 means one of those 8 players you listed is available if 1 QB goes. I do not see any way at least 1 QB is not picked before us. If it gets to pick 9 and all 8 of the position players mentioned are gone - I then think we are getting a lot of action for QB needy teams looking to get ahead of Denver. My issue with pick 9 is that there are 6 or 7 of those 8 guys that I think are great fits and it could easily be we are left with 1 or 2 guys like Taylor, Sweat, or Gary that are high ranked, but may not be ideal and the top QBs are gone leaving us with lots of choices, but maybe not the consensus guy.
Thurman#1 Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 (edited) 30 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said: Hard to see a scenario where one of Bosa, Q Williams, Josh Allen, or Oliver makes it to pick 9. Even if Devin White and 2 QB’s go before us and Jax takes an O Lineman, Detroit probably takes whoever drops. Probably need 3 QB’s to go before us to land one of the 4 premier DL. I could easily see Oliver fall, myself. I think his size might bother someone easily. If two teams go QB above us, that would leave only three teams to not go QB (Murray and Haskins?), Bosa, Quinnen and Josh Allen) in the top eight for Oliver to fall. Taylor, Sweat, Gary and White could all slip in there very reasonably, IMO. 4 minutes ago, NewDayBills said: Hock is an option. Devin White is an option. WR is an option. I think we're going BPA... Hard to say who it will be, there's 8 teams in front of us with a mind of their own. I think we're going BPA too, but Beane has made it clear that sometimes BPA strategy can include a trade, though again, they'd put together a ton of draft capital for last year's drafts in expectation of trading up for a QB. And there are honest differences about who is BPA at any given point. Edited April 10, 2019 by Thurman#1 1
Florida Bills Fanatic Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 It seems like we go through this "hand wringing" exercise every year. We all try to project what other teams above us will do and fret over the players that remain. It is good to remember that there are always unpredicted moves made by teams. Last year it was Cleveland taking a CB with pick #4 instead of B. Chubb. Some GM's who are on the hot seat will select a player strictly for need and some will have players ranked differently than the popular opinions. The over drafting of QB's helps as well. When I look at the top 25 players, we could do alright with about 12 of them at pick #9. I have confidence that Beane and company will play their hand well to get a player that they value and get some extra draft capital if they have the chance. None of these players are a sure thing. I remember being pleased with the Dareus selection and we all know how that turned out. Teams with weak rosters have a propensity to trade down in round 1 to gain picks in rounds 2 and 3. They also tend to move around on day two to fill specific holes. I don't see the Bills locked into this approach. Beane has great flexibility this year and it is going to be fun to watch. It's been a long time since Buffalo has had a GM as capable and daring as Beane. 3
GunnerBill Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: So are you assuming Murray does not go #1? Picking 9 means one of those 8 players you listed is available if 1 QB goes. I do not see any way at least 1 QB is not picked before us. If it gets to pick 9 and all 8 of the position players mentioned are gone - I then think we are getting a lot of action for QB needy teams looking to get ahead of Denver. My issue with pick 9 is that there are 6 or 7 of those 8 guys that I think are great fits and it could easily be we are left with 1 or 2 guys like Taylor, Sweat, or Gary that are high ranked, but may not be ideal and the top QBs are gone leaving us with lots of choices, but maybe not the consensus guy. Ah good point Rochester. My maths was off. I do think Murray goes #1.
Thurman#1 Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: So are you assuming Murray does not go #1? Picking 9 means one of those 8 players you listed is available if 1 QB goes. I do not see any way at least 1 QB is not picked before us. If it gets to pick 9 and all 8 of the position players mentioned are gone - I then think we are getting a lot of action for QB needy teams looking to get ahead of Denver. My issue with pick 9 is that there are 6 or 7 of those 8 guys that I think are great fits and it could easily be we are left with 1 or 2 guys like Taylor, Sweat, or Gary that are high ranked, but may not be ideal and the top QBs are gone leaving us with lots of choices, but maybe not the consensus guy. Doh!! Missed that. Good question for you, Bill. If one QB goes above us, which of those other eight is most likely to fall in your opinion, Bill. EDIT: Ah, you already answered while I typed. Edited April 10, 2019 by Thurman#1
Dante Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 54 minutes ago, tombstone56 said: I see the Bills looking at either Allen or Sweat .as their favorites , the likely need a trade up for either, if unable to get them I see a trade down if possible, then DK Metcalf , Hockenson , Ferguson are possible, my thinking is the likely picks are still Montez Sweat in 1st. Dexter Lawrence in second, Moreau,Ridley, or Irv Smith jr. in third my my wish list is Josh Allen!!!!!! 2.0 and Jaylon Ferguson, Dexter Lawrence, Dalton Risner, Benny Snell jr. , Riley Ridley ,Olive Sagapolu, Dru Samia, Micheal Dieter, Max Crosby, Carl Gunderson. give me a combination with those guys and I am smiling .! And yes I would trade a Ist next year to get Allen! . 8 Damn, he looks so good the way he plays. Finishing off blocks. Catching the ball etc. Seems like a McDermott type. I know D Line is a need but I have to say I would not be disappointed if we went to Hockenson. The thought of someone like him as an option for Allen is exciting. 1
joevan Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 (edited) I like trading back and getting another 2nd rounder if we can. Should be able to get a top 5 player on the OL, DL, and TE/RB/WR, with 3 of the first 50 picks. Edited April 10, 2019 by joevan 1
LABILLBACKER Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 I agree with several responses saying not to over think this. We still need Kyle's replacement and Oliver would be perfect. If they choose Hock which would also be a solid pick, you can try to trade back in the late 1st and target Tillery. And the least probable scenario would be a small trade down. We have plenty of options.
Rochesterfan Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Ah good point Rochester. My maths was off. I do think Murray goes #1. I thought I had seen that in other discussions. I have done a ton of thought drafts and studies and always at least one of those guys dropped. Even still I had to do the math over to make sure I was not missing something. I think pick 9 really pushes the end of the top line talent and although we are going to get a good player it may not be the best team fit player simply because it is what is left. That is why I am dying to see the Bills true board as I would love to know how they have these guys tier ranked compared to you and I and any other mock people. 1
TigerJ Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 (edited) Obviously, some in the pool (3-5) will be gone if Buffalo trades down. From Beane's perspective, his choice depends on his valuation of the players available at 9 versus those he might be picking from in the 12 to 14 range. Opinions vary on Oliver somewhat, but many think he is a real blue chip prospect, and he may drop to nine, but probably not to the 12-14 range.. Is Beane looking more at Metcalf's freakish athleticism (he also seems to be a humble kid with a great attitude) or his injury, rawness, and limited production? In the end, the challenge of being a GM is to be able to look at what is, and not what you want it to be, and make the best decision you can given the reality of circumstances. I don't think Beane wastes too much time lamenting the choices he has available. Edited April 11, 2019 by TigerJ
DCOrange Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 I'm pretty much always happy to trade down, but if we stay at #9, I don't really see any way that we end up in what I would categorize as "no man's land". There's more than 9 good players that would fit positions of need for us.
hjnick Posted April 10, 2019 Posted April 10, 2019 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: What if only one Quarterback goes? Still think we are definitely getting a shot at one of those three (not that I'd love the Taylor pick personally). I see the first 8 position players off the board as: Bosa, Oliver, Q. Williams, Allen, White, Gary, Sweat and Taylor. To get one of those to drop we need Haskins (or Lock but that is unlikely in my mind) to go before our pick. If only 1 QB goes before our pick, we will either take Hock or we will trade back. A team will want to jump in front of Denver to get a QB. Prob Wash to get Lock.
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