Simms Top 5 WR (draft prospects)

[mrags]

1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Rags, if so could he drop to the second?

 

If he does and the Bills didn't take a WR in the first, do you think it is a no brainer to take him here (like some mocks have shown)?

 

I just know very little about him.

I don’t follow college football very much. Right around this time is when I start watching highlights of the guys coming out. 

 

Ill say this, if Harry is there when we pick in the 2nd round and we don’t take him, I’ll be severely disappointed. 

 

And that hat means I do not want a WR in the 1st round. If they go with Metcalf, I hope they know what they are doing. He’s got probably the highest ceiling. Could be the next Megatron. He could also be James Hardy. I personally would rather have Harry or AJ Brown. Or if they want that freakish body, go with Butler who’s 6’6” and has really good movement. He doesn’t look Frankensteinish to me at all. 

[glazeduck]

7 minutes ago, mrags said:

Could be the next Megatron. He could also be James Hardy. 

 

The thing that I don't think most people grasp about DK is how exceptionally rare of an athlete he is. Yes, in terms of purely size, I suppose he could be somewhat similar to James Hardy (R.I.P. You'll never be able to convince me otherwise that a significant amount of him busting wasn't Edwards' fault, but that's another conversation...).

 

I came across this article yesterday <--- DEFINITELY WORTH A READ, it's written for fantasy purposes, but the point works for real football too. It's not just that DK is big, or muscular, or fast, or long, or can jump high... It's that all of those things, in addition to his work on the football field (watch Simms' video at the beginning of this thread or Nate Burleson's breakdown of him in one of the threads) make him a football player that is exceptionally difficult to defend. In the history of football, DK has very few comparisons who touch his athletic measurables. 

 

There's a lot of talk about Jonah Williams' floor in his thread, to it's not hard to argue that DK's might even be higher. As I said in an earlier post, if the medicals check out, I'd be very happy with DK at 9. DL is deep, TE is deep, OL is deep and less of an immediate priority... 

[mrags]

9 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

 

The thing that I don't think most people grasp about DK is how exceptionally rare of an athlete he is. Yes, in terms of purely size, I suppose he could be somewhat similar to James Hardy (R.I.P. You'll never be able to convince me otherwise that a significant amount of him busting wasn't Edwards' fault, but that's another conversation...).

 

I came across this article yesterday <--- DEFINITELY WORTH A READ, it's written for fantasy purposes, but the point works for real football too. It's not just that DK is big, or muscular, or fast, or long, or can jump high... It's that all of those things, in addition to his work on the football field (watch Simms' video at the beginning of this thread or Nate Burleson's breakdown of him in one of the threads) make him a football player that is exceptionally difficult to defend. In the history of football, DK has very few comparisons who touch his athletic measurables. 

 

There's a lot of talk about Jonah Williams' floor in his thread, to it's not hard to argue that DK's might even be higher. As I said in an earlier post, if the medicals check out, I'd be very happy with DK at 9. DL is deep, TE is deep, OL is deep and less of an immediate priority... 

I don’t take away from what DK COULD become. It’s that he’s been often injured. It’s that he’s not put up very good numbers in college and that’s with other really good WRs on the field at the same time. Yes... he’s a physical freak. Could be a generational talent. But he could flame out like all the other workout warriors that come through the draft. 

 

Personally, if it’s me, I’d rather trade back from 9, pick up extra picks and take Hockenson or Fant. I believe they could be the TE versions of Metcalf. Especially Fant. He is just a monster. But right now TJ is a better all around player. But if I’m taking a shot on someone being a generational talent, I’d rather trade back, get extra picks, and take Fant 

2 hours ago, foreboding said:

Which of these receivers is most like the best WR in the NFL right now?

DeAndre Hopkins

 

Great hands, great route runner,  excellent hand fighter who creates a gap and is sneaky fast and has a nasty and aggressive on field demeanor (ala Steve Smith)-

That is the guy I want- who do you think fits the mold?

Probably Harry

[glazeduck]

14 minutes ago, mrags said:

I don’t take away from what DK COULD become. It’s that he’s been often injured. It’s that he’s not put up very good numbers in college and that’s with other really good WRs on the field at the same time. Yes... he’s a physical freak. Could be a generational talent. But he could flame out like all the other workout warriors that come through the draft. 

 

Personally, if it’s me, I’d rather trade back from 9, pick up extra picks and take Hockenson or Fant. I believe they could be the TE versions of Metcalf. Especially Fant. He is just a monster. But right now TJ is a better all around player. But if I’m taking a shot on someone being a generational talent, I’d rather trade back, get extra picks, and take Fant 

Probably Harry

Go read the article I posted and you might change your stance a bit. The point is that DK isn't "like all the other workout warriors that come through the draft." He's physically superior to nearly every WR to EVER come through the draft. And more interestingly, the ones who are comparable to him athletically over the past few years are all stars in the league.

 

As a Pac-12 guy, I like Harry a lot too, but he can't sniff DK's jock athletically. And I understand the excitement around Fant and Hock, but I also think one of them will be there to trade up for in the 20s. TEs just do not have as much impact on the game as other positions.

[mrags]

14 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Go read the article I posted and you might change your stance a bit. The point is that DK isn't "like all the other workout warriors that come through the draft." He's physically superior to nearly every WR to EVER come through the draft. And more interestingly, the ones who are comparable to him athletically over the past few years are all stars in the league.

 

As a Pac-12 guy, I like Harry a lot too, but he can't sniff DK's jock athletically. And I understand the excitement around Fant and Hock, but I also think one of them will be there to trade up for in the 20s. TEs just do not have as much impact on the game as other positions.

I read the article. It just made my point even more to be honest. They used their stats to say that DK, along with other first round WRs had close to a 50% chance at becoming very good if not superstars in the league. WELL DUH... of course early round picks have a much better shot at becoming good. They are athletically gifted over later round picks which generally means they have a higher chance of being good. 

 

This quote in their conclusion says it all to me

”Assuming Metcalf gets drafted in the first-round, his chance for success is high. The probability for reaching Calvin Johnson dominance might be less than 50-percent but increases if we temper our expectations.”

 

As if him being drafted in the first round has anything to do with his success at all. The fact is that he’s a freak and based on potential, he could turn into a dominant player in the league. Then they have the balls to say that he has a 50% chance to be as dominant as the most dominant receiver to ever play the game??? Where do they come up with this crap. 

 

And i I didn’t include it,  but they also say that Harry and Butler are safer picks and have less of a chance to bust than DK. 

 

Again, if they draft DK, I get it. Your swinging for the fences. He has the possibility to be the best player in the draft. The potential to take the league by storm and change everything for us. I’ll be happy if they see that in him and hope that he can become just that. 

 

But my instincts tell me that Harry is the best WR in this draft. That AJ Brown and Butler will also be better. More consistent. Have much better route trees. And have much higher floors, even if it does limit their ceilings. 

 

And your 100% right about the TE position. However, if you can get your hands on one of the TEs in the league that are highly considered the best. Guys like Shockey, Gonzo, Gronk, Ertz, Kelce, And Kittle arguably make more of an impact than even some of the best WRs in the game. If you can get your hands on a player like that, at a position that normally doesn’t have that kind of impact; it’s that much more important. 

Edited April 10, 2019 by mrags

[Allen2Moulds]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

I read the article. It just made my point even more to be honest. They used their stats to say that DK, along with other first round WRs had close to a 50% chance at becoming very good if not superstars in the league. WELL DUH... of course early round picks have a much better shot at becoming good. They are athletically gifted over later round picks which generally means they have a higher chance of being good. 

 

This quote in their conclusion says it all to me

”Assuming Metcalf gets drafted in the first-round, his chance for success is high. The probability for reaching Calvin Johnson dominance might be less than 50-percent but increases if we temper our expectations.”

 

As if him being drafted in the first round has anything to do with his success at all. The fact is that he’s a freak and based on potential, he could turn into a dominant player in the league. Then they have the balls to say that he has a 50% chance to be as dominant as the most dominant receiver to ever play the game??? Where do they come up with this crap. 

 

And i I didn’t include it,  but they also say that Harry and Butler are safer picks and have less of a chance to bust than DK. 

 

Again, if they draft DK, I get it. Your swinging for the fences. He has the possibility to be the best player in the draft. The potential to take the league by storm and change everything for us. I’ll be happy if they see that in him and hope that he can become just that. 

 

But my instincts tell me that Harry is the best WR in this draft. That AJ Brown and Butler will also be better. More consistent. Have much better route trees. And have much higher floors, even if it does limit their ceilings. 

 

And your 100% right about the TE position. However, if you can get your hands on one of the TEs in the league that are highly considered the best. Guys like Shockey, Gonzo, Gronk, Ertz, Kelce, And Kittle arguably make more of an impact than even some of the best WRs in the game. If you can get your hands on a player like that, at a position that normally doesn’t have that kind of impact; it’s that much more important. 

I'm very skeptical of analytics in the game of football.  I know some of it belongs,  but the rest seems to be garbage.  That said..... I couldn't help but notice the guys with the highest scores (120 and up) were all dominant. DK was what,  a 133

[mrags]

4 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I'm very skeptical of analytics in the game of football.  I know some of it belongs,  but the rest seems to be garbage.  That said..... I couldn't help but notice the guys with the highest scores (120 and up) were all dominant. DK was what,  a 133

Where are you getting the scores from? I haven’t seen this list. 

[LABILLBACKER]

18 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Kinda redundant with brown and foster no ?

Really, with Brown and Foster we won't need a 3rd fly route guy and besides if it is DK, he's 4.3

[Alphadawg7]

20 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

My #1 WR by far is Marquise Brown.

 

Do we really need 3 versions of the same player on the team though?  Marquise doesn't make as much sense for us as much now with both Brown and Foster already on the roster.  I certainly wont hate landing him, but I am skeptical we would take him anymore given we already have smaller deep ball guys and need a #1 target that also has some size and big catch radius too.  Someone like DK, Harry, or Butler to me is more likely to be the pick.  Now if Marquise slips to say the 3rd, I think they should and would run to the podium.  But I just cant see them choosing him right now anywhere in the first 2 rounds based on who else is likely on the board to compliment this roster and Allen better.

[C.Biscuit97]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nobody in this draft.

In fairness, you won’t have said Hopkins would be Hopkins when he came out either.  

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/deandre-hopkins?id=2540165

 

in my humble opinion, this sounds most like Harry. 

[Solomon Grundy]

3 hours ago, mrags said:

I don’t follow college football very much. Right around this time is when I start watching highlights of the guys coming out. 

 

Ill say this, if Harry is there when we pick in the 2nd round and we don’t take him, I’ll be severely disappointed. 

 

And that hat means I do not want a WR in the 1st round. If they go with Metcalf, I hope they know what they are doing. He’s got probably the highest ceiling. Could be the next Megatron. He could also be James Hardy. I personally would rather have Harry or AJ Brown. Or if they want that freakish body, go with Butler who’s 6’6” and has really good movement. He doesn’t look Frankensteinish to me at all. 

I'd think Butler would be more like Hardy based on body type

[Allen2Moulds]

36 minutes ago, mrags said:

Where are you getting the scores from? I haven’t seen this list. 

The 2nd chart in the article has DK and his NFL comps.  Megatron was number 1 with a speed score of 139, followed by Demarious,  Julio, and Andre Johnson were all in the 120's. DK would be second with a 133.

 

I wonder where Moulds would've ranked.  Speaking of size and speed/explosiveness.

Edited April 10, 2019 by Allen2Moulds

[mrags]

1 minute ago, Allen2Moulds said:

The 2nd chart in the article has DK and his NFL comps.  Megatron was number 1 with a speed score of 139, followed by Demarious,  Julio, and Andre John were all in the 120's. DK would be secound with a 133

Oh that? Lol. That’s hilarious that’s what your basing an argument on. Where were some of the losers on that list? Where were other guys that didn’t make that list but are incredible or at least very good now. Guys like Jeffery, Evans, Jackson, Fitzgerald. 

 

Theres no guarantee that just because he’s big and fast, that he’ll be good in the league. 

 

Hell, there’s no guarantee that he doesn’t re-injure his neck again after the first hit that he takes in training camp. 

 

I keep having to say it. I don’t dislike him. His potential isn’t just through the roof. There isn’t a roof with him. He could be the most dominant WR to ever play the game. If the Bills take him, I hope he becomes just that. I just wouldn’t bet on that happening. 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

In fairness, you won’t have said Hopkins would be Hopkins when he came out either.  

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/deandre-hopkins?id=2540165

 

in my humble opinion, this sounds most like Harry. 

 

Was the year before I started grading so can't tell you what I personally thought. I just don't think there is a proper elite #1 type in this draft. Harry is more Anquan Bolden to me than Deandre Hopkins.

35 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Do we really need 3 versions of the same player on the team though?  Marquise doesn't make as much sense for us as much now with both Brown and Foster already on the roster.  I certainly wont hate landing him, but I am skeptical we would take him anymore given we already have smaller deep ball guys and need a #1 target that also has some size and big catch radius too.  Someone like DK, Harry, or Butler to me is more likely to be the pick.  Now if Marquise slips to say the 3rd, I think they should and would run to the podium.  But I just cant see them choosing him right now anywhere in the first 2 rounds based on who else is likely on the board to compliment this roster and Allen better.

 

Marquise will be a slot guy so he is competing with Beasley and McKenzie. 

[mrags]

19 minutes ago, the skycap said:

I'd think Butler would be more like Hardy based on body type

JJ Arcega Whiteside is actually the closest thing. Butler is a bit stiff but would run circles around Frankenstein-Hardy any day. 

23 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

In fairness, you won’t have said Hopkins would be Hopkins when he came out either.  

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/deandre-hopkins?id=2540165

 

in my humble opinion, this sounds most like Harry. 

I think of him as more of a Julio type honestly, but that wasn’t the question. Your right though, based on the question of who is closest to Hopkins, Harry is probably that. 

Edited April 10, 2019 by mrags

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Was the year before I started grading so can't tell you what I personally thought. I just don't think there is a proper elite #1 type in this draft. Harry is more Anquan Bolden to me than Deandre Hopkins.

 

Marquise will be a slot guy so he is competing with Beasley and McKenzie. 

 

Then picking him makes even less sense.  Cole is our slot guy for the foreseeable future, they will not be drafting competition for his position.  0% chance of that happening, at least with a day 1 or day 2 pick.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

50 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Do we really need 3 versions of the same player on the team though?  Marquise doesn't make as much sense for us as much now with both Brown and Foster already on the roster.  I certainly wont hate landing him, but I am skeptical we would take him anymore given we already have smaller deep ball guys and need a #1 target that also has some size and big catch radius too.  Someone like DK, Harry, or Butler to me is more likely to be the pick.  Now if Marquise slips to say the 3rd, I think they should and would run to the podium.  But I just cant see them choosing him right now anywhere in the first 2 rounds based on who else is likely on the board to compliment this roster and Allen better.

I don't care much about WR size anymore. You can't touch these WRs anymore. Get WRs that create separation. Brown does.

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

I don't care much about WR size anymore. You can't touch these WRs anymore. Get WRs that create separation. Brown does.

 

We have that already...Cole gets separation, so does Foster and Brown.  

 

We need diversity not 4 guys who do the same thing.  What we do not have, is a guy who is open when he is not.  A guy who is a Redzone target.  A guy who can make contested catches.  A guy who can be a big target.

 

I have nothing against small WR's, but we need some diversity.  Duke could emerge for that role, but he has a lot to prove.  I seriously doubt the FO is going to draft a 4th guy who is not a guy to make contested catches, not a Redzone target, not a big target for a big QB with a big Arm.  

 

Dont get me wrong, I like Marquise...I was hoping we may steal him in the 2nd before FA began...but now signing Brown and Cole, I think we need to diversify that room and give Allen levels to work with.  

Edited April 10, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[ndirish1978]

12 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

I don't care much about WR size anymore. You can't touch these WRs anymore. Get WRs that create separation. Brown does.

 

Ok tell Hollywood Brown to catch jump balls in the end zone then. Height still matters.

[GunnerBill]

49 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Then picking him makes even less sense.  Cole is our slot guy for the foreseeable future, they will not be drafting competition for his position.  0% chance of that happening, at least with a day 1 or day 2 pick.  

 

I don't think it will either. To be honest I am not convinced they will take a receiver in day 1 or day 2 unless someone really falls (like if Harry was there when they pick in the third).