Ranking AFC Playoff Hopefuls P1

[corta765]

This is the first half of a two part thread series I am doing pre draft. These rankings are complete arbitrary and basically ranking how I think the AFC playoff chances weigh out across the board. I understand things can change once the draft is done so that just means I can do another one of these. This is for fun please do not let this wreck your day.

 

Playoff Locks:

Kansas City

New England

 

Betting against the Patriots is always a no go at this point and while I can absolutely see them slogging their way to 10-6 or 11-5 and regressing, I still think they are too hard to pick against. KC has wunderkid leading the way and the division is light after LAC.

 

Strong Contenders:

LA Chargers

Cleveland Browns

 

The Chargers return a great roster and the only pitfall they have would be Rivers getting injured but even then Tyrod can maintain the offense. Honestly Cleveland seems poised for one of those 13-3 seasons that completely reset's the franchise to a new orbit. The only flaw I see for Cleveland would be internal drama if they come out slow early in the seasons given the personalities they have. The other thing is both teams while strong locks need to prove they can do the playoffs something Cleveland hasn't done in forever and something LA has underachieved at many years before.

 

Playoff Hopefuls with a Flaw:

Buffalo Bills

NY Jets

Houston Texans 

Indianapolis Colts

Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Everyone of these teams has legitimate reasons to be hopeful for the playoffs but with an asterisk next to their name for one reason or another. The Bills have made sizeable FA improvements and have an excellent defense along with an easy strength of schedule. But Allen needs to improve and do a Trubisky type improvement to solidfy our playoff chances. The Jets are similar to Buffalo, but offensive line still needs some help and the defense should improve but holes still exist in their secondary and Greg Williams can be up and down as a coordinator. The Texans offensive line was nearly the worst in the NFL and they have made no additions while playing a far tougher schedule. There still is time, but Houston needs to shore up that line and the secondary will need time to grow. Indy made some additions but didn't really add a true impact player the way many thought. Luck had a great comeback year, but a more difficult schedule and continued growth on D is needed to keep moving forward. Pittsburgh finished getting rid of two all pro players and while the offense should be good I doubt it is the great unit you saw years prior. Additionally their defense needs a lot of work and they no longer have easy wins like the Browns on schedule. Minus the AFC East teams I think all of these teams have a solid chance to win their division, but consistency week in week out will determine their fate.

 

If Everything Goes Right They Can Have A Great Playoff Season:

Baltimore Ravens

Denver Broncos

Jacksonville Jaguars

Oakland Raiders

Tennessee Titans

 

Every NFL season there is one team who pulls that best case season where everything falls there way and they make a playoff appearance, sometimes even having that magically Jacksonville type run. All of these teams have flaws which typically limit there height unless everything goes perfect typically leading to a 6-10 through 8-8 type season with a lot of what if's due to their flaws. The Ravens lost a ton of talent this offseason plus defensive cord's now have a full offseason to study Jackson who didn't throw a ton and had a pretty solid blueprint shown on how to stop him in the playoffs. I think last year was Baltimore's best case scenario even if Jackson grows as a passer given their losses on D and lack of skill position players on offense. Denver still has a solid defense, but their offense which lacks elite skill players now needs to hope Joe Flacco finds his inner 2014 season all over. The Jaguars have a talented D which has bled a few players this past off season, but maybe Foles magic can propel them to the playoffs despite a much improved division. The Titans are kind of a mish mosh and Mariota is as Jackal and Hyde as QBs get. The Raiders are the one team who I could legitimately see have an 11-5 type season because Carr has in the past had good seasons and man does that offense have weapons. BUT the defense needs a lot of work and the offensive line is average.

 

Lets Just Go to the 2020 Draft:

Miami Dolphins

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Both of these teams are here and might as well just start planning for Tua or a great positional player. Miami I think is tanking and really just lacks talent everywhere. They finally admitted they need a true rebuild and with the gains the rest of the AFCE alone has made it will be a very tough first season for Brian Flores. Cincinnati has an older roster with Dalton leading the team who hasn't stayed healthy in forever. Additionally look at the Bengals schedule its a straight up buzz saw. I could see Cincy having one of those seasons where they end up 3-13 just because they are over matched weekly without many friendly games.

Edited April 9, 2019 by corta765

[Chris66]

I think you need to move indy and Houston up a category seeing as one of those teams will win the division. Pitt should also be up there as well.

That will leave 8 similiar teams vying for 2 wildcard spots. Should be an interesting season.

[corta765]

Just now, Chris66 said:

I think you need to move indy and Houston up a category seeing as one of those teams will win the division. Pitt should also be up there as well.

That will leave 8 similiar teams vying for 2 wildcard spots. Should be an interesting season.

 

I thought about that but HOU and IND will canabolize each other for wins and each have enough flaws that their QBs cannot completely mask. PIT missed the playoffs last year, Big Ben is a year older, the team shed some big names, and the defense has been regressing for years in a division which has a new talented bully. I think people live off PIT's laurels farr to much to what the reality is. Their closer to being a team like Atlanta which defense pulls the offense down most years then a true dominant juggernaut like in the past.

[row_33]

on average only 3 division winners have repeated since the 8x4 format began in 2002

 

and that's including the Pats owning their division , so basically 2 of the 7 other winners will repeat on average

 

the fun part is experts routinely pick 6 or 7 teams to repeat each preseason.

 

 

[corta765]

9 minutes ago, row_33 said:

on average only 3 division winners have repeated since the 8x4 format began in 2002

 

and that's including the Pats owning their division , so basically 2 of the 7 other winners will repeat on average

 

the fun part is experts routinely pick 6 or 7 teams to repeat each preseason.

 

 

 

Yep. That's why I have this as playoff locks. The NFL playoffs typically see about 33% or 4 new teams a post season. Realistically NE & KC should make it even if they don't win the division. LAC, HOU, & IND all should make it but history has shown that not to be the case like you said and that is not including the AFC North which most likely has a new division winner this year with PIT or CLE.

 

I would not be surprised if the AFC field looked something like this next year: Division Winners NE, LAC, IND, CLE WC: KC & BUF. I picked the Bills because of bias but swap any team like that in it is still 2 new teams and 3 new division winners.

Edited April 9, 2019 by corta765

[MJS]

I'm not ready to consider the Browns a serious contender. They get the hype from everyone, but I don't think they've earned it yet.

 

There have been plenty of times we've seen teams hyped in the off season only to see them struggle when games start. Last off season everyone considered the Jags a Superbowl contender and they fell flat on their faces.

[corta765]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

I'm not ready to consider the Browns a serious contender. They get the hype from everyone, but I don't think they've earned it yet.

 

There have been plenty of times we've seen teams hyped in the off season only to see them struggle when games start. Last off season everyone considered the Jags a Superbowl contender and they fell flat on their faces.

 

Mayfield just broke the rookie QB passing TD record. The list of QBs he passed is pretty freakin elite. I agree with generally not buying the hype but because of him leading that train I will for this time.

[MJS]

1 minute ago, corta765 said:

Mayfield just broke the rookie QB passing TD record. The list of QBs he passed is pretty freakin elite. I agree with generally not buying the hype but because of him leading that train I will for this time.

I get it. But we've seen great rookie seasons in the past. RGIII, Dak Prescott, etc. All options are still on the table.

[row_33]

17 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Yep. That's why I have this as playoff locks. The NFL playoffs typically see about 33% or 4 new teams a post season. Realistically NE & KC should make it even if they don't win the division. LAC, HOU, & IND all should make it but history has shown that not to be the case like you said and that is not including the AFC North which most likely has a new division winner this year with PIT or CLE.

 

I would not be surprised if the AFC field looked something like this next year: Division Winners NE, LAC, IND, CLE WC: KC & BUF. I picked the Bills because of bias but swap any team like that in it is still 2 new teams and 3 new division winners.

 

no argument against the Pats, the Chiefs are prime for a big fall (hunch....)

 

and two teams come out of nowhere each season, and all the experts tell us they saw it, but they picked 7 teams to repeat their division win

 

[corta765]

3 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

no argument against the Pats, the Chiefs are prime for a big fall (hunch....)

 

and two teams come out of nowhere each season, and all the experts tell us they saw it, but they picked 7 teams to repeat their division win

 

 

I could see the Chiefs having a season where the offense slows down enough that it can't cover for a very leaky defense and they end up 9-7 and miss the playoffs. I don't expect it to happen, but it certainly is in the realm of possibility.

[row_33]

11 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

I could see the Chiefs having a season where the offense slows down enough that it can't cover for a very leaky defense and they end up 9-7 and miss the playoffs. I don't expect it to happen, but it certainly is in the realm of possibility.

 

i would very much enjoy Andy Reid on the sidelines looking totally clueless, as he always does, but losing, so I don't have to hear what a genius he is.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

51 minutes ago, MJS said:

I'm not ready to consider the Browns a serious contender. They get the hype from everyone, but I don't think they've earned it yet.

 

There have been plenty of times we've seen teams hyped in the off season only to see them struggle when games start. Last off season everyone considered the Jags a Superbowl contender and they fell flat on their faces.

 

2nd year QB - 2 diva WRs - rookie HC... what could go wrong?!

[GunnerBill]

I'd have a separate category for Oakland it is the "So when can we reasonably get out of this 10 year contract disaster?" category.

[corta765]

12 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

2nd year QB - 2 diva WRs - rookie HC... what could go wrong?!

 

The two QB's Mayfield passed for the TD passing record by rookie QB were Peyton and Russel Wilson. While it is not a given, that is pretty elite company to be in.

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

The two QB's Mayfield passed for the TD passing record by rookie QB were Peyton and Russel Wilson. While it is not a given, that is pretty elite company to be in.

 

Though the record would have been set probably a fair bit higher had Deshaun Watson not suffered the ACL in 2017. He was on 19 with 9 games still to play when the injury happened.

[Rc2catch]

30 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

The two QB's Mayfield passed for the TD passing record by rookie QB were Peyton and Russel Wilson. While it is not a given, that is pretty elite company to be in.

Russel Wilson has never had much of a pass game, and Peyton’s was 20+ years ago when you were still allowed to play defense. Let’s not act like mayfield eclipsed some holy mark or nothing. He was on a losing team, that was behind a lot. And let’s not forget Chubb who made them into an actual nfl offense. Before him they were garbage. After about week 10 with chubbs big breakout is when they started to roll. Not downgrading mayfield but that TD rookie stat is no big deal 

[DCOrange]

I don't think Buffalo and the Jets are on the same tier as Houston/Indy/Pitt. I'd probably just move Buffalo and Jets down to the big blah tier that you have below them in the OP.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I don't think Buffalo and the Jets are on the same tier as Houston/Indy/Pitt. I'd probably just move Buffalo and Jets down to the big blah tier that you have below them in the OP.

 

I can see the argument for either category for the Bills and the Jets. It is all so dependant on Allen and Darnold. If the end of season promise both showed is real then the Bills and Jets are in the Houston / Indy / Pitt group. If those were false dawns then drop them down a tier.

[BmarvB]

Not sold on Cleveland yet. AFC north is wide open except for the Bengals. With improvements on the OL, Houston can move up a spot. Jets can move down (they're not ready yet)

[corta765]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I can see the argument for either category for the Bills and the Jets. It is all so dependant on Allen and Darnold. If the end of season promise both showed is real then the Bills and Jets are in the Houston / Indy / Pitt group. If those were false dawns then drop them down a tier.

 

Exactly. Also remember SOS matters big time. The Bills and Jets are like 2nd and 3rd in the league. That stuff does matter because we have seen what happens when a team gets a soft schedule with an improving roster. HOU/IND/PIT all have significantly tougher schedules then what BUF/NY faces. If we were just going rosters alone I absolutely would have those three ahead, but this is just strictly playoff chances.

Edited April 9, 2019 by corta765