Rewatched last season’s games and these are some observations

[brianthomas]

 

2 hours ago, Fred Slacks said:

4) Offensive line was bad. Really bad. Getting stood up when they should be pushing on run plays. Getting walked back into the QB on pass plays. I believe we we have improved greatly here. However once again I wonder with all the 1 year contracts if this regime is posturing to make other clubs doubt our desire to draft OL in the first round. With the solidifying of the line I’m very confident McCoy looks 2017 form. The poor old man was getting hit behind the LOS at a ridiculously high rate. Also this should improve Josh Allen’s passing (for obvious reasons). 

 

Just my take on #4 but I have to disagree with part of this statement here. Our front office wouldn't be giving out contracts to anyone for the intent to make other clubs doubt our desire to draft OL in the 1st round. Firstly that just seems absurd to even conceive as an idea. But the obvious reason for those contracts with how they are designed is for salary cap management flexibility. Beane seems to understand how much a bad contract can hurt your football team. So he's structured these contracts in a way where we can walk away from these players if they don't pan out & not have to eat dead money at the end of it. He's definitely been focusing on upgrading the line & he's paid those who he needed to like Morse for instance, but for the rest of the guys brought in to compete for spots, if they don't work out then see ya bye bye & we'll upgrade whoever next time.

 

To put it another way, if our front office really wanted to make other teams think we wouldnt draft OL in the 1st round, wouldn't they do the opposite & give out longer contracts to fool everyone like you suggested? Giving shorter contracts means we have less commitment & can walk away from what we currently have. If you have 5 guys signed for long term deals, nobody would expect you to draft OL in the 1st. But if you have only 1 guy signed long term, people would probably expect the opposite. So even if our GM would attempt to do what youre suggesting, how they've done it would be totally backwards from how you'd need to do it. Which they wouldn't do anyways since the goal is improving the depth & competition on the oline. So no i don't see it as posturing at all. Just simply trying to upgrade an area of need & filling holes while not committing ourselves too much in the process. Which imo is really smart & refreshing.

 

But yes if all works out, our offense should be in a much greater position to succeed than it was last year, Allen, McCoy/Gore, everyone. And as for the draft McBeane can draft BPA.

Things are looking up for sure

[MJS]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Zay is definitely on a short leash.  Crossman's unit easily cost us 2 games. 8-8 with a rookie QB is very commendable. 

Don't want to play the "what if" game, but you can add a win if Clay catches that ball in the end zone. There really wasn't a huge difference between 2017 Bills and 2018 Bills. Caught less breaks, special teams nose dived, and the oline sucked. But the defense got better.

[Chandler#81]

Good thread and responses. 

My takes 

1. #2 Ranked D isn’t an under or over rating system. Just an emotionless adding machine, tabulating yrds vs pass & run. Blowout loses skew the view when early T/O’s turn into points from close range. ie: 24 points against in 4 drives, 35 total yds. The 9th worst team does not have the second best defense.

2. 4 horrific blowout losses in both of McDermotts years as HC is a trend. Only the Bengals magical 4th & 12 conversion kept it from eliminating the team both years. This has to stop. Yes, peterman had a hand in a few of them, but we were outmanned and out coached in all 8. I see DL as a serious commitment in the Draft.

3. Penalties. Far too many per game. Allen likely had another 1000 yrds passing were it not for penalties. This is another trend McDermott needs to clean up.

4.Evidently, there’s going to be a lot of unhappy fans when Z. Jones starts in the Opener. The staggering list of WRs Dopey listed suggest Allen only has Zay as a receiver he’s built any kind of rapport with and as said, the coaches like him. He finally found a rhythm last season.

5.Everybody saw the crapshow that was our ‘Special Needs Teams’ last year and I agree with the OP it cost us at least 2 games. Was Houschka’s injury his only problem? If he returns to form and one of the punters takes the opportunity by the throat and secures the job, then the FA signings & a couple rookies will shore this unit up. When the mantra becomes ‘just don’t screw it up’, everything else is gravy.

6. Croom groom continues. He’s staying -even with a high pick.

7. FA haul convinces me there’ll be a whole new offense installed, heavy on the pass and designed around Josh and his skills. That’s how veteran OL mesh quickly and plays to the strength of the QB.

8. I now stream the games for free, but I miss watching full game replays this time of year..

 

Good job, OP.

[SoTier]

10 hours ago, Fred Slacks said:

Just been watching games from last season. 

 

 

Okay, dude, what did you do that was so bad that you had to do a penance this bad?????

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, offyourocker said:

 

 

I think Zay will surpass a 1000 yards next year

 

In the naked hallway sprint? 

[mannc]

8 hours ago, Fred Slacks said:

All valid. I realize it can easily go both ways. But we were close in those games. 

 

On the other hand we got beat handily by the Ravens, Chargers, Green Bay, and Chicago. 

Ahem, aren’t you forgetting something?  Neither NE game was competitive.  Until that changes, this team’s not going anywhere.

[machine gun kelly]

9 hours ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

I think Zay last year was working against opponents first and second corners. This year he will be matched against third and fourth corners. I think we will see a big difference. 

 

You make a good point as he won’t be on the field as much.  Daboll plays a lot of 12 personnel, so we’ll have if we can draft one of the top 3 TE’s, there will be less WR’s on the field.  Brown and Foster as well as Beasley will be the top 3, not in that order necessarily, so Jones is going to be in more when in 11 personnel, a single back so we have 4 wides in on the play.  He’ll probably contribute more in special teams.

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

 

Daboll plays a lot of 12 personnel, 

Let’s hope the refs don’t notice...

[BritBill]

10 hours ago, Jpsredemption said:

Yes he is. Zay had a fluky 7 TDs but even in his best games, see at Miami, he had critical drops. I was always baffled by a trade up in the draft for a receiver with no outstanding qualities and his best quality in college, his hands, are even suspect. 

 

"Fluky 7 TDs" is something I'll never get tired of reading. 

 

How can something that happened 7 times be a fluke?

 

 

 

[teef]

6 minutes ago, BritBill said:

 

"Fluky 7 TDs" is something I'll never get tired of reading. 

 

How can something that happened 7 times be a fluke?

 

 

 

that was my first thought too.  how can 7 tds be "fluky"?    not to say zay doesn't need to show significant improvement in his game, but some people try too hard to discount any good that may have actually occurred with this team.  zay improved considerably from year one to year two.  that's what we needed to see.  

Edited April 8, 2019 by teef

[BritBill]

Just now, teef said:

that was my first thought too.  how can 7 tds be "fluky"?    not to say zay doesn't need to show significant improvement in his game, but some people try too hard to discount any good that may have actually occurred with this team.  zay improved considerably from year one to year two.  that's what we needed to see.  

 

I concur. I'm not Jones's biggest fan but to knock his TD output for last year seems odd. 

 

When I read he had 7 TDs I was flabbergasted. With the receivers and TE ( I suspect we'll see a TE early in the draft too) brought in over free agency he'll do well to match that next season even if his catch % and yards increase. 

[Fred Slacks]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Ahem, aren’t you forgetting something?  Neither NE game was competitive.  Until that changes, this team’s not going anywhere.

 

First NE game was competitive only cause our defense kept us in the game. It did slip away quickly in the 4th. But yes the second NE game is a main reason why I feel our defense still has a long ways to go. 

[Pete]

If we can stop the run, and if someone besides Hughes starts pressuring QBs- we will have a top defensive unit.  Turnovers, field position, and big plays will be benefits of adding quality DT and Edge

[T master]

13 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Good post. To nitpick though, I definitely disagree about Zay Jones. 

 

Jones is bad in my opinion and I think this regime is starting to lose faith in him.

 

I think that is a big reason they added Duke, Beasley, and Brown

 

 

Competition is motivation !! 

[ProcessAccepted]

11 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I agree that ST's was bad and put us in bad positions......good teams win games where ST's mistakes are made.

No offense but I'm tired of people saying stuff like this. It sounds great but it's really just a cliche.

 

Games are often decided on single event. Especially late in the game. A special team player fumbling or muffing a punt can easily change the outcome. Bad calls by refs also often change the result. The roughing the passer call on Brady against the Chiefs changed that game's out come. Sometimes the margin of victory is so small in this league that a single event or call of the ref can determine the outcome. 

 

The OP is correct in that ST's cost us games last year.

[Dr. K]

2 hours ago, teef said:

that was my first thought too.  how can 7 tds be "fluky"?    not to say zay doesn't need to show significant improvement in his game, but some people try too hard to discount any good that may have actually occurred with this team.  zay improved considerably from year one to year two.  that's what we needed to see.  

And he had an 8th td reception that he fumbled at the goal line and Croom recovered for the TD. Not that fumbling at the goal line is to his credit.

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, ProcessAccepted said:

No offense but I'm tired of people saying stuff like this. It sounds great but it's really just a cliche.

 

Games are often decided on single event. Especially late in the game. A special team player fumbling or muffing a punt can easily change the outcome. Bad calls by refs also often change the result. The roughing the passer call on Brady against the Chiefs changed that game's out come. Sometimes the margin of victory is so small in this league that a single event or call of the ref can determine the outcome. 

 

The OP is correct in that ST's cost us games last year.

And you can easily find that "single event" somewhere else in the game.......

 

The Patriots have made special teams mistakes.......do they lose games because of them.

 

I have the film on that game and will go back and re watch it.....I am willing to bet I can find at least 5 plays that are not special teams that decided that outcome.

[Seasons1992]

13 hours ago, Dopey said:

Kelvin Benjamin,  Jeremy Kerley Andre Holmes, Rod Streater, Brandon Reilly, Robert Foster, Quan Bray, Malachi Dupre, Ray-Ray McCloud, Cam Phillips, Austin Proehl, Kaelin Clay.

 

[machine gun kelly]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

Let’s hope the refs don’t notice...

 

Manc- 12 personnel means two TE’s set, vs. 11 personnel is a three WR set, and 10 personnel is a 4 WR set.

I hope that helps.

[technobot]

Nice post, OP, and I agree (unscientifically) with most if not all your assessments.

 

I thought our #2 defensive ranking was overblown. I saw the defense frequently being gashed up the middle on runs. I saw especially competent offenses (Patriots) have their way with us. We showed well in the second game but eventually, like always, they wore us down and ran away with it. However I feel the defense is close; would love to see a monster 3-tech DL or another stud edge rusher, although I believe the interior lineman is the greater need.

 

This isn't to say the defense was trash; it's difficult to diagnose because the offense was incompetent for the first half of the season, blips (@Vikings) notwithstanding. I think the defense is better by default because the offense (hopefully) is much better, same with special teams as you pointed out. Being better than the 2018 Bills' Offensive Line/Special Teams is a low bar to hurdle, I will jump the gun here and say "mission accomplished".

 

The Peterman thing will always be a head scratcher and a source of concern regarding McDermott, however I've come to accept that he must the world's greatest teammate and is a positive presence in the QB room. I'm not being sarcastic when I say this, he had other teams at least look at him (Raiders still have him, and Lions took a flyer). It says alot about AJ McCarron; he must not have been helpful to the other QBs at all, I think Beane had a quote (paraphrasing) "he was not who we expected".

 

The homer optimism I have every year genuinely feels different this year. With what I believe are two fairly successful drafts under the regime's belt, I'm really looking forward to part 3.