Zerovoltz Draft Analysis

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Didn't think he was still around. Thought he became a chiefs fan after they got Mahomes?

 

 

He posts on another respectable Bills site... Not sure if I can mention it.. he still has very strong opinions.. 

 

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

He posts on another respectable Bills site... Not sure if I can mention it.. he still has very strong opinions.. 

 

 

 

didn't think there was another site and he can get lost. Allen is our QB and will be a star.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

My thoughts on this draft.

 

1.  This a ONE QB draft.  Kyler Murray is it.  (it could be 2 IF Grier ends up in a good spot)  I love Murray and I like Grier.  The rest of the QB's in this class are garbage.  Grier would need to land in a place like Cincinnatti where he'd have a chance to supplant the starter in order for this to become a two QB class.  Unfortunately for Grier, I get the impression that a team like Indy or Carolina would take him and he'll ride the bench behind a well established starter.

 

2.  This draft has a TON of DL blue chip prospects at the top. 

 

3.  Combine the idea here that it's a one QB draft, and that the blue chips will be available into the 20's and that means your going to have a draft with little or no trading at the top.  With no QB to go up for, none of the teams like Washington or Miami will be inclined to pay a price to move up for the 2nd QB in this draft who is probably every bit as good (or bad as the case may be) as the 8th QB.  Also, if you can get a Blue chip defender at 20, why trade up to 8, 9 etc?  The market conditions aren't going to be there for teams to want to pay to move up.  

 

4.  This all means the Bills and others up at the top will be staying put and making a selection.  And so, with the 9th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select TJ Hockensen, TE, Iowa.  My thought here is the Bills believe in their defense and their scheme.  By getting involved in an attempt to trade for Antonio Brown, the front office has shown they are all in on getting Josh Allen weaponry.  The Bills do not have a weapon at TE on their roster.  Hockensen would start from day 1 and make an immedeate impact.

 

5.  The Giants won't take a QB in round 1.  The Broncos won't take a QB in round 1.  The Dolphins won't take a QB in round 1.  The Redskins won't take a QB in round 1 (because I think they will be trading their pick to Arizona for Rosen)  In fact, after Murray, the other QB's are going to slide down the board....again, based on my assesment that these QB's suck, coupled with the blue chippers into the 20's...no reason to draft a flawed QB high when you can get the same flawed guy in round 4.  I wouldn't be entirely surprised at all if only Murray goes in round 1.

 

6.  Round 2 will see several WR that will prove to be good value selections.

 

Yes, I know you all don't care for the Chiefs fans perspective, but this is high quality analysis and I provide it for free.

 

So here is my take on each:

 

1. It is certainly a one quarterback class in the sense of true first round talents. I am higher than you on Haskins have him as a 1st / 2nd borderline, and I do think he goes in the 1st. Not in the top 10 though. In the teens somewhere. 

 

2. Obviously, yes. 

 

3. There will be some movement. You always have a team or two who move up for a non QB and surprise people. I wouldn't be shocked if you get a team with an OL need moving up for Taylor or Williams. But overall fewer trades than last year in the 1st is a pretty safe bet. 

 

4. If Ed Oliver is there I would be shocked if the Bills don't take him. You might be slightly out of the Buffalo loop as a Chiefs fan but they have met with Oliver about 5 times had him in here, been out to Houston to meet with him... if he is there at #9 he is the pick. If he is not there then I do think Hock is in play. 

 

5. Largely agree. Think Washington may end up taking Haskins in the teens. Don't think they are trading for Rosen.... they already flipped a pick for Keenum don't think they will trade for another QB - they will draft one inside the first 3 rounds. Agree Giants and Dolphins not going QB.... Denver won't at #10 but I don't totally rule out them trading back in at the end of the 1st if they do, as reported, really like Drew Lock. 

 

6. Agreed. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I assume you think Grier is not good-I watched him play about 6 games this year and all were impressive-did you see him stink in some game? I am not an expert but he seems like the most NFL ready QB-reminded me of Josh Rosen, just no concussions.

 

My first exposure to him was his total meltdown against Oklahoma State in 2017. I have seen him play a couple of good games since and come back to him a bit but that was so bad it is hard to get totally out of my head. 

[CSBill]

Only a West Virginia fan (are there any of them outside the state?) could think Grier is a good NFL QB prospect.

 

He is the 2nd coming of Matt McGloin, a perennial NFL 3rd stringer who somehow always ends up on an NFL roster, at least until a team finds a better option.

[eball]

The Bills’ D is not “set” by any means. If they can add a blue chipper on the DL at 9 I can’t imagine them passing it up. They can get one of the three top TEs in the 2nd (or they may try to trade back into the first). 

 

My $.02...

[3rdnlng]

9 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

I spelled it wrong the day I signed up.

Do you not find it amusing that people would get all amped up by a poster named Zero Voltz misspelling his own screen name?

[4BillsintheBurgh]

9 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

Can an Admin look into it or someone tell me how?

Go to the top right part of page and hit the pulldown. Under "Settings" go to "Account Settings" then Display Name.

[Gugny]

11 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

My wife is a hot asian woman.  

 

Pic?

 

And Lock is the best QB in the class.

[YoloinOhio]

34 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Pic?

 

And Lock is the best QB in the class.

I think he has the potential to be, wouldn’t be surprised 

[Ima Fan]

54 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Pic?

 

And Lock is the best QB in the class.

I’m surprised it took 12 hours for someone to ask for a pic!

You  guys are slipping ?

[ctk232]

15 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

It's fluid enough right now that I wouldn't either bet for or against what you are saying here.

 

16 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

3.  Combine the idea here that it's a one QB draft, and that the blue chips will be available into the 20's and that means your going to have a draft with little or no trading at the top.  With no QB to go up for, none of the teams like Washington or Miami will be inclined to pay a price to move up for the 2nd QB in this draft who is probably every bit as good (or bad as the case may be) as the 8th QB.  Also, if you can get a Blue chip defender at 20, why trade up to 8, 9 etc?  The market conditions aren't going to be there for teams to want to pay to move up.  

 

So here's the thing - I agree with you in regards to your assessment of this QB class, and will even go so far as to say that there isn't a QB in this draft class worth taking in the first round. However, this is the NFL and the premium that is placed on the QB position gives it this unicorn draft value every year that, regardless of the talent, there will be at least one team reaching for a QB in the first. And at the rate teams have done so in the past I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3 drafted in the first round. 

 

Now to your point of trading up/down/sideways/whatever - teams trade up for other positions that aren't QB. This is just a matter of fact. Maybe not with equivalent frequency but certainly in good number, considering it's how we got our LB last year. While this class is littered with DL depth, there are other positions with players that teams may consider to be exceptionally high value and trade up for that specific player. Additionally, teams may value one specific player as a scheme fit or for various scouting superlatives that, to them, stands out among the entirety of the rest of the class and would like to trade up for that one player regardless of position. Nothing about this QB class, or the classes in any year for that matter, precludes a trade scenario for any team. It may make the forecast more cloudy than sunny - but marginally so, if at all.

 

I can never fully understand the talks about pick values and the chart for this reason either - every year is a different class of talent, at different positions, with variable depth. The first overall pick is not equivalent to the first overall pick from previous year's drafts - nor are the players comparable in the least at that pick. Further, the same can be said for the value of pick 75 in this class compared to other year's, since the depth of talent is so much greater this year. You can also bet that teams value these picks and players very differently, and there will be GMs calling for potential trades come draft day. But all this to say, we can guess all we want with varying degrees of accuracy and logic - the Bills' chances of trading down/up/or out of the draft altogether are still all the same. 

 

This is about par for this time of year...next two weeks will see exponential spikes until the 25th.

[Orlando Buffalo]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My first exposure to him was his total meltdown against Oklahoma State in 2017. I have seen him play a couple of good games since and come back to him a bit but that was so bad it is hard to get totally out of my head. 

I saw the end of that game and he looked bad but no on his team helped him. I definitely though see where you are coming from then.

[Simon Says]

if  only ONE QB is worth drafting in the  first round....couldn't  that  mean MORE D linemen would be  be picked, not fewer?  If you trade down to 12,15 or 20, you have  fewer DL options to choose from  because, as you said, this draft is loaded with DL talent. I wouldn't assume teams  will wait on impact players dropping to them. Beane claims he will go BPA. If Bills take Hockenson at #9,and want a DT, they have to take someone like Tillary in the 2nd. If they select Oliver , Wilkins, Sweat,et.al at #9, they could maye get Irv Smith in the  2nd, possibly wait for Josh Oliver or Knox? So which combo ,overall, has more value? Hockenson/Tillary or Oliver/Smith?

[Zerovoltz]

4 hours ago, Ima Fan said:

I’m surprised it took 12 hours for someone to ask for a pic!

You  guys are slipping ?

 

[Zerovoltz]

[Zerovoltz]

And of course, just to prove it’s me....this is me and Poncho Billa at the 2018 Draft

 

[LabattBlue]

- I've been sleepless for nights wondering where Zero's mock is.    

 

- Just wondering...don't the Chiefs have a message board or are you so brilliant, you have to share your thoughts across all NFL fanbases?

 

- I love people who refer to themselves in the 3rd person.

 

 

WTF has happened to TSW?

[Zerovoltz]

29 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

- I've been sleepless for nights wondering where Zero's mock is.    

 

- Just wondering...don't the Chiefs have a message board or are you so brilliant, you have to share your thoughts across all NFL fanbases?

 

- I love people who refer to themselves in the 3rd person.

 

 

WTF has happened to TSW?

 

im here because this place is fun and has knowledgeable fans.  Chiefs fans in general are big homers.  Every fan base has them but on Chiefsplanet, etc, it’s not easy or fun to try and have an intelligent football discussion.  Some of the best conversations about football I’ve had are with people like transplant or hapless bills fan, jay fix it and riverside.

[GunnerBill]

I have seen more of Zero's wife's breasts than I expected to this morning that is for sure.