machine gun kelly Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said: BPA is a myth. Teams essentially select the best player available that’ll fit a roster spot of need. BPAoN: Best Player Available of Need SoCal, I was criticized for this opinion, but everyone has the right to their own opinion. I respect the idea of BPA, but so many teams just so happen to also somehow find players where they want to bolster their roster. I think with the first couple of rounds they will fill needs with the BPA that also meets a need, and guess by round 3 or 4 will just truly pick the BPA available for the man reasons other posters referenced regarding roster turnover, etc. It does help we picked up I think it’s 15 by now free agents, not that all will make the team. It is relieving to see two very good WR’s, 6 O Line, and some bolstering of special teams. We’ll see as none of us are Beane, and wouldn’t be surprised if we bundle some picks over the draft to keep moving up for better players, even if it’s only 7 picks. At the end of the day, it’s just speculation by all of us, and no one even the mock draft supposed experts seem to get it right. There are just too many variables.
SouthNYfan Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 41 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Yep, and that is with the 1st overall pick. RG3 and Leaf are 2 off the top of my head that were legit BPA after the 1st pick. It’s rare though. Man. Rgiii. His body mechanics (lower) with running and jumping were terrible from the get go. He was predisposed to ACL injuries based on his lower body build and hip-knee alignment during running and jumping. Go look at his knees from his combine long jumps. Yeesh.
GunnerBill Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: How do trades factor in your concept of BPA? So trades are normally linked to value and need and trying to synchronize the two. When the Bills traded up last year to take Edmunds it was because they had a need at MLB and a guy fell to a spot where he likely was sticking out as BPA on their board. When that happens it is worth exploring if you can get up and take that player.
Rob's House Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Warcodered said: I don't get how you can determine the value a player brings to your team without considering your own roster. You may have 2 CBs ranked differently depending on whether you play more press-man or zone. You may rank 2 edge rushers differently depending on whether you run a 3-4 or a 4-3. 1
Augie Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: QB is always the exception. If you don't have a QB you should take one even if he is not pure BPA. If you have one then you can ignore one even if he is BPA. Or, hopefully trade that pick for a King’s ransom!
stinky finger Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 1 hour ago, CaptnCoke11 said: Ask Beane.. I’m sure he’ll love to let you see their list You missed the point. Who's to say who the best player available is? Naturally, each list will be different. Yours, mine, theirs. BPA is subjective. As mentioned by someone earlier, what's the definition of BPA? It differs widely by who you ask. I wasn't being a smartass in response to Bangarang. 1
dubs Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 3 hours ago, Logic said: I was thinking about this the other day. There are many fans on this board who say they're totally fine with the BPA strategy, i.e. drafting the best player available no matter what.. Many will go to great lengths to defend it or remind everyone daily that it's the way to go. I get it. I really do. I'm not here to argue against taking the best player available in each round. It's fine with me. I think every team does a little bit of lip service to it every year while also making draft picks that make it clear that "need" is at least a LITTLE BIT of a factor, but I digress. The point of this post is this: You say you're all for taking the best player available in each round, but if that idea is put to the test, how will you react? Here's the scenario -- The Bills have selected, let's say, Ed Oliver with pick 9. Now, after anxiously waiting for the Bills to be on the clock in the second round, it's finally time. Still available on the board are N'Keal Harry, Hakeem Butler, Irv Smith Jr, Chris Lindstrom, and Dalton Risner. The Bills turn in their card. We all wait with great anticipation as it is announced...."With the 40th pick in the 2019 NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills select....Rock Ya-Sin, cornerback, Temple". Or "The Buffalo Bills select Jonathan Abram, safety, Mississippi State". Well? What's your reaction? Are you thrilled that the Bills got the highest rated player on their board? Are you not at all bothered that they didn't fill their offensive "needs"? What say you? When the tires hit the pavement, are you truly on board with drafting the BPA? Im totally good with this scenario. I also think BPA is kind of overused. “Best” is so subjective that it really doesn’t mean much. Especially because each team is projecting the players’ futures, it’s subject to so much error. 1
Toesy Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 Beane was 100% right when he said FA for need and draft for BPA. FA has lots of B and C level NFL players that have shown what they can do-most drafted players will never get to the level of a C level NFL free agent. 1
GoBills808 Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: So trades are normally linked to value and need and trying to synchronize the two. When the Bills traded up last year to take Edmunds it was because they had a need at MLB and a guy fell to a spot where he likely was sticking out as BPA on their board. When that happens it is worth exploring if you can get up and take that player. Right, so imo the fact that trades exist at any sort of frequency throws the concept of BPA as a hard and fast rule out the window.
stinky finger Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 2 hours ago, SoTier said: As a corollary, if the corner and wr are rated about the same, then you can pick for need, but to pass on a great player at one position to take a decent one because you have a hole at a particular position, is a plan for mediocrity at best. What if you're sufficiently loaded at a particular position and the BPA ON YOUR BOARD is the same position, what do you do? 2
Doc Brown Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 Unless it's a generational player or you're in desparate need of a franchise QB, you take the best player that will help your team in the next few years (fits your scheme, fills a roster hole) in the first three rounds. I'm more of a best player available regardless of need in the later rounds. 1
Toesy Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 You take the BPA-other than at QB because the QB position is special-2 QBs of equal ability causes all sorts of team problems that don't exist with stacking players at any other position. Back in the day Tom Landry tried alternating QBs-it was a total disaster obviously-the starting QB can't be constantly looking over his shoulder nervously at this replacement if he screws up. At say DT it just makes the starter go harder and the competition works great.
ColoradoBills Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, inaugural balls said: What if you're sufficiently loaded at a particular position and the BPA ON YOUR BOARD is the same position, what do you do? I believe it's the number 1 reason teams offer up the pick to trade down. If your guys are really good in knowing what other teams are needing you contact the teams that need a player in that position. Trading down has to be about the knowledge of what other teams are willing to trade up for. 2
stinky finger Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 1 minute ago, ColoradoBills said: I believe it's the number 1 reason teams offer up the pick to trade down. If your guys are really good in knowing what other teams are needing you contact the teams that need a player in that position. Trading down has to be about the knowledge of what other teams are willing to trade up for. This seems reasonable. So drafting BPA didn't happen in this case.
GunnerBill Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Right, so imo the fact that trades exist at any sort of frequency throws the concept of BPA as a hard and fast rule out the window. But you don't trade up unless a player is clearly BPA. So it is still a significant part of the picture. For example in 2014 when the Bills traded up for Sammy he was their #1 player overall on their board. 1
Kirby Jackson Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 27 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said: Man. Rgiii. His body mechanics (lower) with running and jumping were terrible from the get go. He was predisposed to ACL injuries based on his lower body build and hip-knee alignment during running and jumping. Go look at his knees from his combine long jumps. Yeesh. I remember he was the like the 2nd or 3rd highest graded QB ever by scouts inc. He was in the conversation with Luck. Leaf was in the conversation with Manning. It’s crazy to think about in hindsight. 1
GoBills808 Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: But you don't trade up unless a player is clearly BPA. So it is still a significant part of the picture. For example in 2014 when the Bills traded up for Sammy he was their #1 player overall on their board. Oh, I don't think that's true at all. There are a ton of trade-ups for QBs who are very clearly not BPA.
Augie Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Oh, I don't think that's true at all. There are a ton of trade-ups for QBs who are very clearly not BPA. As is mentioned above, QB’s are the exception. They have their own set of rules. If you don’t have one, you need to find one.
SouthNYfan Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: I remember he was the like the 2nd or 3rd highest graded QB ever by scouts inc. He was in the conversation with Luck. Leaf was in the conversation with Manning. It’s crazy to think about in hindsight. He had an amazing rookie season. People forget how good he actually played.
GoBills808 Posted April 7, 2019 Posted April 7, 2019 19 minutes ago, Augie said: As is mentioned above, QB’s are the exception. They have their own set of rules. If you don’t have one, you need to find one. Yeah, but we were talking about the concept of BPA as it relates to TRADES, as opposed to a rule in and of itself. If trades are an exception to the BPA rule and QBs are another, how many exceptions before the rule starts looking more like guidelines?
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