Why I think T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa, will be the #9 pick

[XABI64]

he's my pick

 

best TE prospect to come out since Gronk. He pretty much has everything. would be a massive weapon on our offense. ppl in this thread saying the TE position isn't worth drafting so high...you must not be watching much football in the last 5-8 years. 

 

TE position has become more important than RB. 

Edited April 8, 2019 by XABI64

[Rico]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I can play this game all day long. Would Gronk, Kelsie or even Kittle be worthy of the mighty 9th pick? Would an opportunity to land possibly the best TE in Bills history be worthy of the coveted 9th pick?  Hey I'm all for taking Oliver before TJ,  but if it came down to Gary, Wilkins or Hockenson,  I'm running to the podium for the Iowa kid.

You either trade up earlier for someone a lot better or you trade down by hook or by crook before you burn the #9 pick on friggin’ Hock. God-awful value for a top-10 pick otherwise. 

[Inigo Montoya]

50 minutes ago, Rico said:

You either trade up earlier for someone a lot better or you trade down by hook or by crook before you burn the #9 pick on friggin’ Hock. God-awful value for a top-10 pick otherwise. 

 

I disagree. Completely.  Someone who brings WR1 offensive production and is an elite blocker bolstering the O-line and helping in the running game sounds like a value pick to me.  He is a consensus top 10 pick in this draft.  Is there some reason that you believe the consensus is wrong about him? 

 

This may all be moot anyways because there is a strong chance his is already gone by pick 9.

[Nihilarian]

While I like the pick the kid has not been one of the 30 players to visit the Buffalo Bills pre-draft

On 4/6/2019 at 11:00 AM, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

I hate the idea of drafting a tight end in the first round.  Excluding the all time greats - Gronk, Tony G, etc -  a really good NFL tight end is not worth a first round pick. 

 

Think about it. Lets assume you draft a really good tight end, by NFL standards.  That TE is the equivalent of the worst blocker on the line and maybe the third best WR on the team.  A really good TE is good for like 600+ yards. Zay got that many yards, and he is only a WR2, but still the board wants to see him cut.  

 

Why use a first round pick for that kind of production. 

 

George Kittle, 49er TE had 88 receptions for 1337 yards and was the 8th best receiver last year. 

 

Travis Kelcie, KC TE had 103 receptions for 1336 yards 10 TDs and was the 10th best receiver last year. 

 

Zack Ertz, Philly TE had 116 receptions for 1163 yards, 8 TDs and was the 16th best receiver last year.  

 

Honorable mention to Jered Cook , Eric Ebron. 

 

In 2017 Gronkowski was one of the best run blockers while also was the 10th best receiver in the league and a game changer for the Patriots his entire career!  Also was 12th best in 2015.  Having a TE like one of these men can be a game changer for the team and with that size, it makes it very difficult for a linebacker to keep pace or a DB to make a tackle. 

 

A good tight end is a QB's best friend as a downfield outlet and can be a great asset in blocking for the run or pass. Hockenson can do both very well as he pancakes in blocking and is a good deep threat. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

12 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

While I like the pick the kid has not been one of the 30 players to visit the Buffalo Bills pre-draft

 

George Kittle, 49er TE had 88 receptions for 1337 yards and was the 8th best receiver last year. 

 

Travis Kelcie, KC TE had 103 receptions for 1336 yards 10 TDs and was the 10th best receiver last year. 

 

Zack Ertz, Philly TE had 116 receptions for 1163 yards, 8 TDs and was the 16th best receiver last year.  

 

Honorable mention to Jered Cook , Eric Ebron. 

 

In 2017 Gronkowski was one of the best run blockers while also was the 10th best receiver in the league and a game changer for the Patriots his entire career!  Also was 12th best in 2015.  Having a TE like one of these men can be a game changer for the team and with that size, it makes it very difficult for a linebacker to keep pace or a DB to make a tackle. 

 

A good tight end is a QB's best friend as a downfield outlet and can be a great asset in blocking for the run or pass. Hockenson can do both very well as he pancakes in blocking and is a good deep threat. 

 

That is all true, but TE has the highest bust potential of any position on the field, save for maybe quarterback, and even then I'm not so sure.  99% of TEs drafted are not Gronk, Kelce, Little--even only 10% get to that +600 mark.  Considering how low the likelihood is that you are getting a good TE, the benefit of an awesome TE does not outweigh the risk.  

[WideNine]

On 4/8/2019 at 5:07 PM, Rico said:

You either trade up earlier for someone a lot better or you trade down by hook or by crook before you burn the #9 pick on friggin’ Hock. God-awful value for a top-10 pick otherwise. 

 

Do you see a sure-fire value at 9 elsewhere? I am not so sure, and I would like us to land a stud edge or tackle.

 

I don't get caught up in where you take certain players if you really like what they can bring...other than punters:)

 

I just don't see us landing any of the defensive blue chippers unless we trade up a few spots, or there is an unlikely run on marginal QBs.

 

I like this defensive class, but feel there are 5-6 top prospects then a lot of maybe guys with high ceilings. You can toss in one or two dbs that could make the top 10 cut too, but not a strong need for this team.

 

If the blue-chippers are gone by our pick then turning to offensive players who can step in and help the team is not that much of a reach.

 

A trade up or down to better align BPA would be preferable. Seems folks are less concerned with taking Hock 4-5 picks later than at 9...seems more like a mental barrier than sound logic.

 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2019 by WideNine

[Nihilarian]

4 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

That is all true, but TE has the highest bust potential of any position on the field, save for maybe quarterback, and even then I'm not so sure.  99% of TEs drafted are not Gronk, Kelce, Little--even only 10% get to that +600 mark.  Considering how low the likelihood is that you are getting a good TE, the benefit of an awesome TE does not outweigh the risk.  

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

Eric Ebron was a 1st round pick

Gronk, Ertz were 2nd rounders

Kelce, cook were 3rd rounders

Kittle was a 5th rounder From Iowa

 

Anyway, if you look at the CBS mock drafts you see Hock going at #7 to #19 and most have him going at #12 to GB. The kid is the complete package at TE and blocks like Gronk. He dropped one pass out of 51 and was the first sophomore to win the John Mackey award as the nation's top TE. He also won the big ten TE of the year award. Buffalo has never had a TE this good

 

Interesting article, https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/t-j-hockenson-the-better-iowa-te-prospect

Edited April 9, 2019 by Nihilarian

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

5 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

What do the percentages mean?  That 67% of TEs drafted in the first round go on to start?  For how long do they start? I don't quite follow this. 

[Nihilarian]

15 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

What do the percentages mean?  That 67% of TEs drafted in the first round go on to start?  For how long do they start? I don't quite follow this. 

I posted the chart to see if it would actually stay as I saw it as a chart. Then added more to it with a link explaining everything. you were a bit fast on the uptake 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I posted the chart to see if it would actually stay as I saw it as a chart. Then added more to it with a link explaining everything. you were a bit fast on the uptake 

 

Ah.  Good article.  However, I think the disconnect here is the difference between starters and stars.  Lots of TEs start, but they just don't produce much.  There are a handful of "good" TEs in the league that really produce, and then a massive drop off.  I guess terms like "bust" are tough, because its so subjective.  I consider Ebron a bust.  I know he had a great year, but before that he was not worthy of a 1st round pick.  He was a starter, but definitely a wasted pick.  Thats what happens with TEs drafted too high, usually.  They go on to start, but they rarely live up to their first round bid. 

[Nihilarian]

2 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Ah.  Good article.  However, I think the disconnect here is the difference between starters and stars.  Lots of TEs start, but they just don't produce much.  There are a handful of "good" TEs in the league that really produce, and then a massive drop off.  I guess terms like "bust" are tough, because its so subjective.  I consider Ebron a bust.  I know he had a great year, but before that he was not worthy of a 1st round pick.  He was a starter, but definitely a wasted pick.  Thats what happens with TEs drafted too high, usually.  They go on to start, but they rarely live up to their first round bid. 

I had considered Ebron a bust too at Detroit and last season paired up with Andrew Luck he had 66 receptions for 750 yards, 13 TDs. I'll not forget that Doug Whaley had stated if the trade up for Sammy Watkins had fallen through he would have drafted Ebron at #9.  The wrong system in Detroit? 

 

Anyway, TJ Hockenson looks to be on a much higher level as some mocks have him going as high as 6th overall. Bucky Brooks calls his a gold jacket prospect and a top 15 player much like ex Cowboys TE Jason Witten. 

 

https://www.rotoworld.com/college-football/nfl-draft/player/39502/tj-hockenson

 

Dunno about you, but I would love to see a Gronk type TE in Buffalo. A receiver that creates a mismatch that few teams can adapt to stop. 

 

Bust factor? In NFL mocks I see him going at #10 to Denver, #12 to Green Bay and #19 to Minnesota. Oddly enough that guy who said #19 to Minn also had the Bills selecting TE Noah Fant at #9, Charles Davis. (Fant was Hocks teammate at Iowa)

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2019/mock-drafts

 

 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

17 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I had considered Ebron a bust too at Detroit and last season paired up with Andrew Luck he had 66 receptions for 750 yards, 13 TDs. I'll not forget that Doug Whaley had stated if the trade up for Sammy Watkins had fallen through he would have drafted Ebron at #9.  The wrong system in Detroit? 

 

Anyway, TJ Hockenson looks to be on a much higher level as some mocks have him going as high as 6th overall. Bucky Brooks calls his a gold jacket prospect and a top 15 player much like ex Cowboys TE Jason Witten. 

 

https://www.rotoworld.com/college-football/nfl-draft/player/39502/tj-hockenson

 

Dunno about you, but I would love to see a Gronk type TE in Buffalo. A receiver that creates a mismatch that few teams can adapt to stop. 

 

Bust factor? In NFL mocks I see him going at #10 to Denver, #12 to Green Bay and #19 to Minnesota. Oddly enough that guy who said #19 to Minn also had the Bills selecting TE Noah Fant at #9, Charles Davis. (Fant was Hocks teammate at Iowa)

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2019/mock-drafts

 

 

Dude, I would be alllll about a TE, but I don't want to use our first round pick for 750 yards (the 13 tds is nice, though).  

 

What really spooks me is Ebron.  Before Hockenson, Ebron was the next sure fire, cant miss TE.  Then he wasn't.  The media gets hyped for the draft, the NFL promotes it, and we fall for it.  Every year so many guys are touted as the next big thing, but they rarely are.  Only a handful of guys end up being stars, and the rest are just solid contributors or less.  I'd bet you just about anything that Hockenson is destined to be the next highly touted TE that ends up being just another guy. 

[Nihilarian]

45 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Dude, I would be alllll about a TE, but I don't want to use our first round pick for 750 yards (the 13 tds is nice, though).  

 

What really spooks me is Ebron.  Before Hockenson, Ebron was the next sure fire, cant miss TE.  Then he wasn't.  The media gets hyped for the draft, the NFL promotes it, and we fall for it.  Every year so many guys are touted as the next big thing, but they rarely are.  Only a handful of guys end up being stars, and the rest are just solid contributors or less.  I'd bet you just about anything that Hockenson is destined to be the next highly touted TE that ends up being just another guy. 

I dunno, Ebron was never on my radar in 2014. The Bills even brought in Odell Beckham Jr for a look before the draft and I think they didn't look at him hard enough because he was injured at the time. Anyway, my thoughts on trading up for a WR were Mike Evans at 6'5'' 230Lbs and not on a kid who gained most of his yards in screenplays. I also liked the OG Zack Martin the Cowboys took at #16 in a trade back. 

 

I know most Bills fans don't think a TE or OG is worthy of a first-round pick. However, I do if the guy is another Jason Witten type.

 

The thing is, in my view is that Josh Allen doesn't like to check down to the RB in the flat and is always looking for that receiver open downfield. While Robert Foster and John Brown will be going deep with the fade/go/clear-out and Cole Beasley will be in the slot going for the underneath stuff. The Bills could really use a tight end like Gronk who can be a dual threat to block well for the run game or peel off for a mid-range pass.

 

Or the Bills could trade back and pick up his teammate TE in Noah Fant who is not the blocker that Hock is but runs a 4.5 40. Either way, the Bills have never had a pass catching TE like either of these two and Josh Allen needs a go-to TE. 

 

The Patriots had Gronk. The Eagles have Ertz. The Chiefs have Kelce, had Tony Gonzalaz. The Saints had Jimmy Graham. Carolina has Greg Olsen. Dallas had Jason Witten. The Bengals have Tyler Eifert. The Redskins have Jordan Reed. The Vikings have Lyle Rudolph. The 49ers had Vernon Davis. The Broncos had Julius Thomas. The NY Giants have Evan Engram. 

 

The closest the Buffalo Bills have come to having a top TE recently was Charles Clay whos best year was back in 2013 with 68 rec for 759 yards, 6 TDs. Buffalo bought into what they thought was an on the verge TE and it never happened. 

 

Just sayin, I wouldn't be adverse to a TE at #9. 

[Chicken Boo]

I promise you Hockensen isn't going inside the top 10.

[LSHMEAB]

43 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

I promise you Hockensen isn't going inside the top 10.

It would be such a poor allocation of resources. The chances that he becomes Kelce/Ertz/or Gronk are less than 50/50. The position is more of a luxury than a need. He is not seen as a transcendent player. Why would a team want to use a top 10 pick on a TE who MAY be ALMOST as good as guys that were taken in the 2nd/3rd round?

 

Kittle was a 5th rounder! 

 

Hock will be drafted closer to 20 than 10 IMO.

Edited April 9, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[TBBills Fan]

On 4/7/2019 at 10:54 AM, Mat68 said:

I think Fant goes before Hockinson.  He is the more natural route runner, the better redzone threat, and the kind of dynamic athlete that is drafted high. 

 

 

I think Charles Davis mocked Fant to us with hock on the board

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

It would be such a poor allocation of resources. The chances that he becomes Kelce/Ertz/or Gronk are less than 50/50. The position is more of a luxury than a need. He is not seen as a transcendent player. Why would a team want to use a top 10 pick on a TE who MAY be ALMOST as good as guys that were taken in the 2nd/3rd round?

 

Kittle was a 5th rounder! 

 

Hock will be drafted closer to 20 than 10 IMO.

I agree with this. I'd love to get Oliver at nine and trade up to grab Hockenson if he falls far enough in the first. I'm not passing on elite DL for very good TE though.

[YodaMan79]

3 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

It would be such a poor allocation of resources. The chances that he becomes Kelce/Ertz/or Gronk are less than 50/50. The position is more of a luxury than a need. He is not seen as a transcendent player. Why would a team want to use a top 10 pick on a TE who MAY be ALMOST as good as guys that were taken in the 2nd/3rd round?

 

Kittle was a 5th rounder! 

 

Hock will be drafted closer to 20 than 10 IMO.

 

You get it.  I've been banging this drum the whole thread.  Like a d!ck, got so frustrated I lashed out in a couple of posts.  I think we have a fan base like others have stated; buy all the hype and BS the NFL sells us on these potential busts, chumps and jackoffs.  We just have to hit the lotto on a couple of these players, that's all the draft is.  Every year we have to hear from the talking heads how some guy is the next big thing.  How often do these predictions come to fruition?

 

[LSHMEAB]

For the record, I don't believe Hockenson will bust, although it's possible. It's all about the value, the ceiling, and the position at #9 overall.

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, YodaMan79 said:

 

You get it.  I've been banging this drum the whole thread.  Like a d!ck, got so frustrated I lashed out in a couple of posts.  I think we have a fan base like others have stated; buy all the hype and BS the NFL sells us on these potential busts, chumps and jackoffs.  We just have to hit the lotto on a couple of these players, that's all the draft is.  Every year we have to hear from the talking heads how some guy is the next big thing.  How often do these predictions come to fruition?

 

 

The circular logic is kind of funny

 

Why not a TE in the first? Because no one takes TEs in the 1st, or of the 6 or so TEs taken in the 1st only a handful were great.

 

So out of all those defensive line players taken each year in the 1st they all pan out? Statistically, I would have to lean towards more of those defensive players being rather pedestrian and not turning out to be Aaron Donald II. Some of the Bills best defenders were later round picks (although they have an eye for good DBs and have taken their share early). Too early to tell with Edmunds, but he could become a force too.

 

I really would like a generational talent, but at 9 this year I think it going to be a crap shoot regardless of what direction they go offense or defense. I am not advocating taking a TE at 9, I just wouldn't find it alarming if they did.

 

Oliver at 9 that's my pick, but I have some doubts. Why was he was neutralized against some sub-par offensive lines is he a generational talent, was he hampered by scheme or injury, lack of talent around him, does he have a higher ceiling or did he peak a year ago?

 

I still want us to nab a TE, but the class is deep enough that we may be able to land a good one a bit later who will need more coaching up than the IA prospects, but it's a trade off I could understand. Successful offenses have solid to above average TEs, the position is even more prominent with college and NFL teams using more spread formations with the TE as a flex option.

 

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2018/12/7/18129492/2018-flex-te-liljordan-humphrey-oklahoma-grant-calcaterra-spread-iso-basketball-on-grass

 

Regardless of what our TBD braintrust thinks about the value of the position, there are 2 to 3 TEs in this draft that will go in the 1st that teams are going to feel are BPA, whether the Bills take one or not.

 

Perhaps that argument of whether or not TEs should be taken in the 1st is moot.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2019 by WideNine