Why I think T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa, will be the #9 pick

[Buffalo Barbarian]

14 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 I think he is really good but a notch below Bush 

 

 

 

14 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

IVE BEEn drinking all night my friend ... I confused the 2...

 

yhe LSU kid is the one is like more.. he is white

 

well hes black so ...

 

Edited April 7, 2019 by Buffalo Barbarian

[Buffalo716]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

 

 

 

well hes black so ...

 

Devin white my #1 ILB , Bush #2

[#34fan]

16 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

I really want Hockenson but there are quality TEs in this draft.

 

Not THAT type of quality there ain't... If I hadn't won a playoff game in 20 years, I sure wouldn't pass on a generational talent.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Just now, #34fan said:

 

Not THAT type of quality there ain't... If I hadn't won a playoff game in 20 years, I sure wouldn't pass on a generational talent.

 

Hes good and i like him a lot but not sure he is generational.

 

i think Sternberger can be a top TE and think people are sleeping on him.

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Hes good and i like him a lot but not sure he is generational.

 

i think Sternberger can be a top TE and think people are sleeping on him.

 

 

Compared to Mckellar,  Metzelars and Chandler,  he's generational. Notice I didn't even include Clay.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

6 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Compared to Mckellar,  Metzelars and Chandler,  he's generational. Notice I didn't even include Clay.

 

i wouldn't either, Clay was just a guy.

 

 

[Inigo Montoya]

 

Great article on the spectacular TE play over the last few seasons in the NFL.  If we can add Hockenson and get similar production that would be an epic upgrade for our offense.  I think Hockenson has that potential.  One of the TE mentioned is George Kittle, an Iowa TE in his second year as a pro.  Hockenson is from the same program.  Kittle had 88 catches this season for 1,377 yards.  There were only 7 players in the entire league with more receiving yards than Kittle.  Julio, Hopkins, Evans, Hill, JuJu, Thomas and Adams.  Kelsey came in 10th in total yards with 1,336 yards receiving. Ertz comes in at #16 on the list with 1,163 receiving yards. Ertz had 116 receptions this year which is crazy.

 

A great TE can lead an offense in today's NFL.  TE is now a premium position in the NFL.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001025559/article/marcedes-lewis-no-question-travis-kelce-is-best-te

 

 

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[Buffalo Barbarian]

13 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Great article on the spectacular TE play over the last few seasons in the NFL.  If we can add Hockenson and get similar production that would be an epic upgrade for our offense.  I think Hockenson has that potential.  One of the TE mentioned is George Kittle, an Iowa State TE in his second year as a pro.  Hockenson is from the same program.  Kittle had 88 catches this season for 1,377 yards.  There were only 7 players in the entire league with more receiving yards than Kittle.  Julio, Hopkins, Evans, Hill, JuJu, Thomas and Adams.  Kelsey came in 10th in total yards with 1,336 yards receiving. Ertz comes in at #16 on the list with 1,163 receiving yards. Ertz had 116 receptions this year which is crazy.

 

A great TE can lead an offense in today's NFL.  TE is now a premium position in the NFL.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001025559/article/marcedes-lewis-no-question-travis-kelce-is-best-te

 

 

 

 

all true but Hockenson came from Iowa not state. Unless you meant the same offense.

 

 

[Inigo Montoya]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

all true but Hockenson came from Iowa not state. Unless you meant the same offense.

 

 

 

I meant to say Iowa.  Kittle, Hockenson, and Fant are all coming out of the same college program.  Thanks for noticing, I'll go back and fix it.  

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[Buffalo Barbarian]

2 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I meant to say Iowa.  Kittle, Hockenson, and Fant are all coming out of the same college program.  Thanks for noticing, I'll go back and fix it.  

 

 

Could you imagine all those guys on one team !

 

 

[Inigo Montoya]

Just now, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Could you imagine all those guys on one team !

 

 

 

The Patriots had Aaron Hernandez and Gronk together until Hernandez went off the deep end.  They were tearing it up together those first three years. Can you imagine what the Pats would have been like with both Gronk and Hernandez all these years?  I remember during that 2010 draft wondering what the hell Belichick was doing drafting a TE in the 2nd and 4th rounds.  I guess he knows just a little bit more about this football stuff than I do...

[Buffalo Barbarian]

2 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

The Patriots had Aaron Hernandez and Gronk together until Hernandez went off the deep end.  They were tearing it up together those first three years. Can you imagine what the Pats would have been like with both Gronk and Hernandez all these years?  I remember during that 2010 draft wondering what the hell Belichick was doing drafting a TE in the 2nd and 4th rounds.  I guess he knows just a little bit more about this football stuff than I do...

 

Yep, its about time we figured it out.

 

Hockenson, Sternberger and Isaac Nauta would be the bomb !!!

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

This is kind of cool:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Compared to Mckellar,  Metzelars and Chandler,  he's generational. Notice I didn't even include Clay.

 

 

Being better than McKellar, Metzelaars and Chandler does NOT make you worthy of the #9 pick.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 4/7/2019 at 3:24 AM, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I respectfully disagree TPS.  If the success or failure of your entire tenure as a GM depends on Josh Allen becoming a franchise QB, I think you draft the All Pro TE.  Imagine having Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz on this offense...

 

 

 

"All Pro"?

 

This and your OP make it look like you did what GMs shouldn't do ... you fell in love with a prospect and went looking for ways to justify that love rather than seeing what's really there.

 

I like Hockenson. But putting him as an All-Pro is a massive reach.

 

More, the failure or success of their tenure doesn't depend on Allen becoming a franchise QB. It depends on the Bills becoming a very good team. Yeah, Allen becoming a franchise QB would certainly help towards that goal. But so would having a terrific defense. And while getting a very good TE would help Allen, would it be the difference between him becoming a franchise QB or not? No particular reason to think so.

 

I put Hockenson in the group of guys they should consider in the 1st round. I'd rather trade back if they go for him. I think they can get him a few picks later, myself, but if Oliver is there, I'd rather just take him.

Edited April 8, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Inigo Montoya]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

"All Pro"?

 

This and your OP make it look like you did what GMs shouldn't do ... you fell in love with a prospect and went looking for ways to justify that love rather than seeing what's really there.

 

I like Hockenson. But putting him as an All-Pro is a massive reach.

 

More, the failure or success of their tenure doesn't depend on Allen becoming a franchise QB. It depends on the Bills becoming a very good team. Yeah, Allen becoming a franchise QB would certainly help towards that goal. But so would having a terrific defense. And while getting a very good TE would help Allen, would it be the difference between him becoming a franchise QB or not? No particular reason to think so.

 

I'm not projecting anything onto Hockenson.  He is the best TE in a great TE class.  He is a consensus top 10 draft pick for a reason and not just because Inigo Montoya says he is.  (Though Inigo's opinion should carry substantially more weight than it does ? )  You say I'm seeing something about Hockenson that isn't there.  I'd like to know what you believe that is.  I think my reasoning for drafting him is clearly stated above.  I don't think I'm reaching for anything.  I think they are valid reasons.  If you don't agree with one of those points I'd be happy to talk about it, maybe you would convince me I'm wrong.  I have no problem changing my mind when someone convinces me I'm off base.

 

Honestly, I don't know why a GM would draft any player with the #9 overall pick in the draft if he did not see that player becoming an All Pro player. No one drafts a player at 9 hoping they will be a solid player, they expect them to be an elite player.  That's why they get drafted in the top ten.   I think Hockenson can become an All Pro TE.  Why do you think he couldn't?  Have you seen a flaw in his game that has been overlooked?

 

Sure we could win a Super Bowl with a historically good defense and a average QB, but that is certainly not the norm anymore.  I think we are more likely to win the Super Bowl if we have a true franchise QB and a decent defense.  To that end, as this team is built right now, we need to shore up the offense.  That means putting an O-line in front of Allen and getting him some weapons. 

 

There is a reason that Hockenson is seen as a top ten prospect, it is because it is believed he has the tools to become an elite TE in this league.  We all watched what Gronk did for years. lets look at the other three top TE in the league last season.

 

George Kittle San Fran;  88 rec, 1,377 yards, 5 TD  

Zach Ertz Philly; 116 rec, 1163 yards, 8 TD

Travis Kelce Chiefs; 103 rec, 1336 yards, 10 TD

 

I think that kind of production will help Josh Allen's development and this offense become legit.  Hockenson is the best blocking TE in the draft too.  We are basically getting another O-lineman who can protect Allen and open up the running game at the point of attack, further helping Allen.  I think T.J. Hockenson is the player in this draft most likely to help Josh Allen's game.  

 

Maybe the Bills draft Oliver at 9.  I would be ok with that.  If they trade up and take one of the EDGE guys I'd be ok with that too. If they draft an offensive player, I want it to be Hockenson for all the reasons I've stated.  I think he has more value than DK Metcalf or any other TE/RB/WR in this year's draft. 

[YodaMan79]

You're a man obsessed.  I give you credit for persistence.  The production you're referencing isn't something that has just come along.  TE isn't just becoming a premiere position!  ANYONE WHO CATCHES THE BALL HAS SEEN AN INCREASE IN PRODUCTION IN THIS NFL!!!  Any analyst willing to spend 5 minutes looking into things would see this has been ten years in the making,  Look at the individual seasons going back 10 years to more recent that these players had.  This isn't the second coming of Bill Walsh's philosophy and the WC offense.  What you are saying is common knowledge amongst anyone who really watches the game.  I though you'd find this interesting too:

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/08/nfl-non-mock-draft-first-round-fmia-peter-king/

 

 

2007:

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Lng	TD	20+	40+	1st	1st%	FUM
1	Tony Gonzalez	KC	TE	99	1,172	11.8	73.2	31	5	14	0	59	59.6	0
2	Jason Witten	DAL	TE	96	1,145	11.9	71.6	53	7	12	2	56	58.3	1
3	Kellen Winslow	CLE	TE	82	1,106	13.5	69.1	49	5	17	1	56	68.3	2
4	Antonio Gates	SD	TE	75	984	13.1	61.5	49T	9	15	1	54	72.0	0

 

2009:

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Lng	TD	20+	40+	1st	1st%	FUM
1	Dallas Clark	IND	TE	100	1,106	11.1	69.1	80T	10	11	3	59	59.0	1
2	Jason Witten	DAL	TE	94	1,030	11.0	64.4	69	2	11	2	48	51.1	0
3	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	TE	83	867	10.4	54.2	27	6	4	0	54	65.1	0
4	Antonio Gates	SD	TE	79	1,157	14.6	72.3	56	8	18	1	61	77.2	1

 

2011:

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Lng	TD	20+	40+	1st	1st%	FUM
1	Jimmy Graham	NO	TE	99	1,310	13.2	81.9	59	11	18	2	74	74.7	1
2	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE	90	1,327	14.7	82.9	52T	17	22	3	69	76.7	0
3	Brandon Pettigrew	DET	TE	83	777	9.4	48.6	27	5	7	0	37	44.6	0
4	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	TE	80	875	10.9	54.7	30	7	8	0	53	66.3	0
5	Aaron Hernandez	NE	TE	79	910	11.5	65.0	46	7	12	2	46	58.2	1

 

Top 10 in 2015:

 

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Lng	TD	20+	40+	1st	1st%	FUM
1	Delanie Walker	TEN	TE	94	1,088	11.6	72.5	61T	6	13	2	52	55.3	0
2	Jordan Reed	WAS	TE	87	952	10.9	68.0	32	11	14	0	54	62.1	3
3	Gary Barnidge	CLE	TE	79	1,043	13.2	65.2	40	9	16	1	52	65.8	0
4	Greg Olsen	CAR	TE	77	1,104	14.3	69.0	52	7	20	1	52	67.5	1
4	Jason Witten	DAL	TE	77	713	9.3	44.6	35	3	4	0	36	46.8	1
6	Zach Ertz	PHI	TE	75	853	11.4	56.9	60	2	11	2	39	52.0	1
7	Benjamin Watson	NO	TE	74	825	11.1	51.6	46	6	13	1	42	56.8	1
8	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE	72	1,176	16.3	78.4	76T	11	22	5	52	72.2	0
8	Travis Kelce	KC	TE	72	875	12.2	54.7	42T	5	10	1	40	55.6	2
10	Heath Miller	PIT	TE	60	535	8.9	35.7	27	2	5	0	29	48.3	0

Edited April 8, 2019 by YodaMan79

[colin]

without saying hock will be an all pro (if i have to pick and they are both there i'm taking him or DK at 9, assuming all the pass rush studs are gone), but the idea that a specific starting 11 position shouldn't be drafted in the top 10 is silly.

 

They used to say you shouldn't take an S or RB in the top 10, but multiple teams have in the past few years and with success.  they also said you can't take a guard, but indy did last year and that looks like an awesome pick.

 

if the bills FO think hock is gonna play like gronk then you run up to the podium and spend the pick.

 

keep in mind, QBs are special and you always over draft them, and OL and DL are picked high because it's hard to find big guys who are sick athletes/players (only so many men on the planet with size, let alone size and other traits) and you play with 5 OL on every down, and 3 or 4 DL on nearly every down and you gotta rotate DL too.  beyond that, any position can get a top 10 pick IF the player is great enough vs the other plays available.

 

the only draft prospects i was super high on in the past while von miller, khalil mack, and josh allen (altho i also liked darnold and baker at qb), and other than that i usually just deffer to the brain trust, so it's not like I'm super duper high on hock or DK, i just think they look like potential great players at positions we need, but make no mistake, if you think a TE is an all pro, you throw the 9th pick at him.

[Inigo Montoya]

13 minutes ago, YodaMan79 said:

You're a man obsessed.  I give you credit for persistence.  The production you're referencing isn't something that has just come along.  TE isn't just becoming a premiere position!  ANYONE WHO CATCHES THE BALL HAS SEEN AN INCREASE IN PRODUCTION IN THIS NFL!!!  Any analyst willing to spend 5 minutes looking into things would see this has been ten years in the making,  Look at the individual seasons going back 10 years to more recent that these players had.  This isn't the second coming of Bill Walsh's philosophy and the WC offense.  What you are saying is common knowledge amongst anyone who really watches the game.  I though you'd find this interesting too:

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/08/nfl-non-mock-draft-first-round-fmia-peter-king/

 

 

2007:

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Lng	TD	20+	40+	1st	1st%	FUM
1	Tony Gonzalez	KC	TE	99	1,172	11.8	73.2	31	5	14	0	59	59.6	0
2	Jason Witten	DAL	TE	96	1,145	11.9	71.6	53	7	12	2	56	58.3	1
3	Kellen Winslow	CLE	TE	82	1,106	13.5	69.1	49	5	17	1	56	68.3	2
4	Antonio Gates	SD	TE	75	984	13.1	61.5	49T	9	15	1	54	72.0	0

 

2009:

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Lng	TD	20+	40+	1st	1st%	FUM
1	Dallas Clark	IND	TE	100	1,106	11.1	69.1	80T	10	11	3	59	59.0	1
2	Jason Witten	DAL	TE	94	1,030	11.0	64.4	69	2	11	2	48	51.1	0
3	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	TE	83	867	10.4	54.2	27	6	4	0	54	65.1	0
4	Antonio Gates	SD	TE	79	1,157	14.6	72.3	56	8	18	1	61	77.2	1

 

2011:

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Lng	TD	20+	40+	1st	1st%	FUM
1	Jimmy Graham	NO	TE	99	1,310	13.2	81.9	59	11	18	2	74	74.7	1
2	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE	90	1,327	14.7	82.9	52T	17	22	3	69	76.7	0
3	Brandon Pettigrew	DET	TE	83	777	9.4	48.6	27	5	7	0	37	44.6	0
4	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	TE	80	875	10.9	54.7	30	7	8	0	53	66.3	0
5	Aaron Hernandez	NE	TE	79	910	11.5	65.0	46	7	12	2	46	58.2	1

 

Top 10 in 2015:

 

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Lng	TD	20+	40+	1st	1st%	FUM
1	Delanie Walker	TEN	TE	94	1,088	11.6	72.5	61T	6	13	2	52	55.3	0
2	Jordan Reed	WAS	TE	87	952	10.9	68.0	32	11	14	0	54	62.1	3
3	Gary Barnidge	CLE	TE	79	1,043	13.2	65.2	40	9	16	1	52	65.8	0
4	Greg Olsen	CAR	TE	77	1,104	14.3	69.0	52	7	20	1	52	67.5	1
4	Jason Witten	DAL	TE	77	713	9.3	44.6	35	3	4	0	36	46.8	1
6	Zach Ertz	PHI	TE	75	853	11.4	56.9	60	2	11	2	39	52.0	1
7	Benjamin Watson	NO	TE	74	825	11.1	51.6	46	6	13	1	42	56.8	1
8	Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE	72	1,176	16.3	78.4	76T	11	22	5	52	72.2	0
8	Travis Kelce	KC	TE	72	875	12.2	54.7	42T	5	10	1	40	55.6	2
10	Heath Miller	PIT	TE	60	535	8.9	35.7	27	2	5	0	29	48.3	0

 

Good stuff.

 

The reason I continue to bang the drum for TEs is that some people on this board keep making the argument that drafting a TE at 9, even a top flight prospect like Hockenson, is simply not a wise use of that draft capital.  They don’t value the position. I think that is a fundamentally flawed position.  

 

On nearly every mock draft I see, Hockenson is the first non-QB offensive skill player off the board.  He is creeping up the board as time goes by. The mock you linked to has him gone at 8 to the Lions.  I’m seeing more mocks with him going at 7 to the Jags.  

 

Your larger point that the NFL has become a passing league and that TEs have been feasting just like the WRs have because he ball is simply being thrown more is absolutely correct.  

 

What I think is new in football over just the past few years is that offensive coordinators are feeling comfortable building their entire offense around the TE position now.  That is a big change in philosophy.  You don’t need a WR1 on your teem if you have a TE like Ertz who can put up 116 catches for 1136 yards and 8 TDs in a season.  

 

In drafting Hockenson you are basically drafting a WR1 who’s also a fantastic blocker who will help keep your QB upright and help open up the running game.  That to me seems to be an incredible amount of value for one draft pick.  

 

When the Bills entered this off season the two biggest weaknesses were the O-line and the WR corps.  While Beane addressd them aggressively in FA, I don’t think anyone would contend we’re as strong in either of those units as we can be.  Drafting Hockenson helps strengthen both of those units.

 

I think if Hock is on the board at 9 he is the highest value player, the BPA, even over Oliver. That is even before you factor in that Allen still doesn’t have a real go-to guy on the offense to help him out.  When you throw that consideration in, I think Hock at 9 becomes a no brainer.  

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Being better than McKellar, Metzelaars and Chandler does NOT make you worthy of the #9 pick.

 

 

I can play this game all day long. Would Gronk, Kelsie or even Kittle be worthy of the mighty 9th pick? Would an opportunity to land possibly the best TE in Bills history be worthy of the coveted 9th pick?  Hey I'm all for taking Oliver before TJ,  but if it came down to Gary, Wilkins or Hockenson,  I'm running to the podium for the Iowa kid.