Why I think T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa, will be the #9 pick

[aristocrat]

If ends up as a 1000 yard guy nobody would hate this pick 

[TC in St. Louis]

First of all, because there was a thread about this guy on March 15 shouldn't stop somebody from introducing the topic on April 6th.  Who's got time to research the entire Stadium Wall?  Besides, the NFL Network and ESPN do reports on this stuff every single day.  Doesn't stop me from reading it.

 

Secondly, someone made the point about the guy not being labeled a "Generational Talent."  Was Gronk labeled as such?  No.  He lasted till the second, and was chosen ONE PICK after we chose generational talent tackle from NC State....give me a moment while I look this up:  Torrell Troup!  Whifffff!!!  Antonio Brown and Tom Brady were 6th round picks.  Sometimes you hit on something.  Robert Foster.....Levi Wallace, not even drafted.

 

Who would I pick?  I don't know.  I watched some show yesterday where they said Ed Oliver was a super freak athlete difference maker.  We're talking about the 9th best player in the country.  That pick should be a dominant player.  

 

They won't pick for need.....well, maybe they should.  We haven't gotten anybody to replace Kyle Williams.  Maybe it's Oliver.  

 

I watched Hock at the Combine.  He looks like he could become a superstar in the right offense.  

 

I have no idea.  I think my preference would be to try and get some extra picks.  

[machine gun kelly]

Inigo - I’m  with you.  Good post.

[SmokinES3]

I saw NFL.com projecting Fant at #9... Are they high?

I want Hock but I wouldn't be upset with Oliver or even Jonah Williams or Taylor. 

Edited April 6, 2019 by SmokinES3

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, papazoid said:

TE is the weakest starting position on team.

 

Hockenson will be a perennial pro bowler.

 

a DL at #9 will be the 5th DL chosen

 

If drafting current NFL players I’d get through quite a few DL before picking a TE too though 

[BillsFan1988]

4 hours ago, dubs said:

 

The five best ones

 

I don’t think you pass up the best tackle in the draft because of what the bills did in the offseason. 

At some pt we gonna need impact players for Allen. I think we've done more then enough to solidify the OT position for now.  Btw top quality OTs can be bought in free agency nearly every yr there's some available. U know what u can't find top notch TEs these guys never available via free agency.  

[stinky finger]

4 hours ago, dubs said:

If it’s all about Allen, take Taylor then a TE later. 

 

 

Presently - I'm with you on this thinking.

[buffaloboyinATL]

I think the reason I am so hesitant to get a TE this early is that we have not had a truly impactful TE in so long that I can no longer imagine how much of a difference one can make.  

 

I know that this is irrational and that this fact should be the reason to want one, but we have been without for so long I can no longer even imagine it. I guess I fear that taking a TE this early, regardless of how good he is, will be a wasted pick because we won’t use him enough or the right way.

[Inigo Montoya]

11 hours ago, bkep32 said:

There is already a post about this please dont make another thread 

 

10 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

I’m not usually “that guy” but common man there is an 11 page thread with this same exact topic already 

 

 

I know there is another post about Hock from three weeks ago discussing this.  It is eleven pages long.

 

I spent three hours working on my post between looking things up and actually  writing it.  I know, that’s a bit much for a post on a TBD message board, but that’s how it goes sometimes because I know posters are going to challenge my position and I want to lay out my thoughts clearly and back them up with stats and facts.

 

I take no offense at you guys pointing out that there is another thread addressing this topic. Hell, Yolo brings more value to this board in one week than I have in the entire time I’ve been here.  I think at some point though, a thread gets so long it stops being useful or manageable.  

 

At the end of the day, agree with my premise about drafting Hock or not, but I think I put together a rational post with new information in it.  I didn’t want to put that effort into a post just to bury it at the end of an 11 page thread from three weeks ago.

 

Now back to the topic again, look at the production of Gronk, Ertz, Kelce, and Kittle.  They are the WR1 on their teams most years and are putting up league wide WR1 numbers. I would take that kind of production for the #9 pick any day, especially on our struggling offense.  I think Hockenson has that potential. 

 

I think Hock, Fant, and Irv Smith are all gone in the 1st.  If we don’t grab a TE at 9 we aren’t getting any of them unless you want to trade back into the first round and there is no way to know if you will even be able to do so. If you do trade back into the first round you will end up expending a lot of draft capital to grab the second or third best TE in the draft because Hock is going to be a top 12 pick and won’t be there.

 

Daboll knows the value of having a big time TE in his offense and I think he will be pushing hard for Hockenson at 9.

 

Will I be upset if we draft Oliver?  Nope.  The kid looks great.  The problem is that Oliver doesn’t help Allen develop and Allen developing means everything for this franchise.  It also means we roll into season two of Allen’s tenure with no WR1 on the team or go-to guy for Allen.  I don’t mean to minimize the value of Brown, Beasley, and Kroft, but none of them are going to be the cornerstone of an offense like a Gronk, Ertz, Kittle, or Kelce are.  I think Allen needs a cornerstone.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[LabattBlue]

I heard a guest on WGR earlier today, stating Fant is a much better value and almost an equal player to Hock near the end of the 1st round/early second round, than Hock would be at 9.

[Inigo Montoya]

2 hours ago, TPS said:

@Inigo Montoya I certainly like him and would be happy with the pick, but...

if you’re McBean and you believe this is the last top 10 pick you’ll have over the next 5-7 years, would you rather draft an all pro at DL or at TE with this pick? 

I think the answer is DL. 

 

I respectfully disagree TPS.  If the success or failure of your entire tenure as a GM depends on Josh Allen becoming a franchise QB, I think you draft the All Pro TE.  Imagine having Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz on this offense...

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by Inigo Montoya

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[TPS]

57 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

I respectfully disagree TPS.  If the success or failure of your entire tenure as a GM depends on Josh Allen becoming a franchise QB, I think you draft the All Pro TE.  Imagine having Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz on this offense...

 

Believe me, I really like the idea of Hockenson, but going forward I think it'll be a lot easier to draft a potential all pro TE than a potential all pro DL if you're continuously drafting at 20 or worse. I agree that a great TE could certainly help Josh, but I don't think that will determine whether or not he is a franchise QB.  Btw, the one game I went to last year was the Jags, and I mentioned to my friend, after Josh did some amazing thing, "it looks like the Bills have their franchise QB." So, in Beane I trust...

[Formerly Allan in MD]

6 hours ago, dubs said:

If it’s all about Allen, take Taylor then a TE later. 

There ya go!

[WideNine]

2 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

I heard a guest on WGR earlier today, stating Fant is a much better value and almost an equal player to Hock near the end of the 1st round/early second round, than Hock would be at 9.

 

Good article that covers the 2 Iowa prospects pretty well, and why Hockenson shot up the boards when Fant is arguably more athletic.

 

They are both really good, Hock is more complete as a 3-down TE who not only runs great routes and has dependable hands, he will open run lanes and keep your QB upright, Fant is a matchup nightmare for secondaries.

 

https://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2018/11/13/18089600/the-curious-case-of-noah-fant-iowa-football-bhgp

 

 

Edited April 6, 2019 by WideNine

[hjnick]

10 hours ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

I like Hockenson a lot but nothing at him screams a generational talent. I think he could develop maybe into a tightend like Whitten but I see more heath miller/Todd heap.

While I’d like a player of that caliber on this roster, I would not pass on him

for a guy like Ed Oliver. Especially when we can still get a tight end like Irv Smith, Josh Oliver, Jace Stenberger or Foster Meanru in the 2nd or 3rd. 

 

Now Noah Fant that’s different 

 

I think this is the key for Hock, if the Bills evaluate him to be a 'Gronk' level TE, then I think you take him at 9 (or trade back a couple of picks, and hope he falls a couple more spots and pick up a 2nd round pick (my favorite thing to do)).  IF not Gronk level, don't take him at 9 or even 10-15, not worth it.  Then wait till 2nd or 3rd round to get a serviceable TE.

[bkep32]

Our run def is horrible, TE take 2 to 3 years to developer, plug it up with oliver

[hjnick]

5 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

 

I know there is another post about Hock from three weeks ago discussing this.  It is eleven pages long.

 

I spent three hours working on my post between looking things up and actually  writing it.  I know, that’s a bit much for a post on a TBD message board, but that’s how it goes sometimes because I know posters are going to challenge my position and I want to lay out my thoughts clearly and back them up with stats and facts.

 

I take no offense at you guys pointing out that there is another thread addressing this topic. Hell, Yolo brings more value to this board in one week than I have in the entire time I’ve been here.  I think at some point though, a thread gets so long it stops being useful or manageable.  

 

At the end of the day, agree with my premise about drafting Hock or not, but I think I put together a rational post with new information in it.  I didn’t want to put that effort into a post just to burry it at the end of an 11 page thread from three weeks ago.

 

Now back to the topic again, look at the production of Gronk, Ertz, Kelce, and Kittle.  They are the WR1 on their teams most years and are putting up league wide WR1 numbers. I would take that kind of production for the #9 pick any day, especially on our struggling offense.  I think Hockenson has that potential. 

 

I think Hock, Fant, and Irv Smith are all gone in the 1st.  If we don’t grab a TE at 9 we aren’t getting any of them unless you want to trade back into the first round and there is no way to know if you will even be able to do so. If you do trade back into the first round you will end up expending a lot of draft capital to grab the second or third best TE in the draft because Hock is going to be a top 12 pick and won’t be there.

 

Daboll knows the value of having a big time TE in his offense and I think he will be pushing hard for Hockenson at 9.

 

Will I be upset if we draft Oliver?  Nope.  The kid looks great.  The problem is that Oliver doesn’t help Allen develop and Allen developing means everything for this franchise.  It also means we roll into season two of Allen’s tenure with no WR1 on the team or go-to guy for Allen.  I don’t mean to minimize the value of Brown, Beasley, and Kroft, but none of them are going to be the cornerstone of an offense like a Gronk, Ertz, Kittle, or Kelce are.  I think Allen needs a cornerstone.

 

 

 

Hell, I really liked the offense Philly was running because they have 2 TE's that are very serviceable blockers/catchers.

 

That way you can basically have 7 blockers out there, 2 WR, 1 RB (normally). But with that set, you also have 4 pass catchers and a RB.  With this set, you force LB's onto the field because if you they don't match the size of the TE's out there, the offense will just run over the defense.  BUT with good TE's, that also makes a great mismatch of the TE's on LB's.

 

I'm not saying we should draft 2 TE's here.  Only showing that have 2 good catching TE's could create a lot of problems on the defensive side of the ball and also help in the running game.

[GimmeSomeProcess]

3 hours ago, TPS said:

Believe me, I really like the idea of Hockenson, but going forward I think it'll be a lot easier to draft a potential all pro TE than a potential all pro DL if you're continuously drafting at 20 or worse. I agree that a great TE could certainly help Josh, but I don't think that will determine whether or not he is a franchise QB.  Btw, the one game I went to last year was the Jags, and I mentioned to my friend, after Josh did some amazing thing, "it looks like the Bills have their franchise QB." So, in Beane I trust...

Totally agree with you, heck we can do it this year in the 2nd or 3rd with Irv, Stenberger or Fant. 

[Inigo Montoya]

3 hours ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

Totally agree with you, heck we can do it this year in the 2nd or 3rd with Irv, Stenberger or Fant. 

 

Hey GimmeSome

 

I don't think Fant or Irv Smith will make it out of the first round. I think Hockenson goes in the top 12. He might not even make it to 9 rendering this whole discussion moot.  I saw mocks with him going to the Jags at 7 and the Lions at 8 earlier in the week.  

 

Admittedly, I don't know much about Stenberger.  Is he pretty solid?

 

The draft is always a crap shoot.  First round busts, late round gems.  Kyle Williams 5th rounder.  Travis Kelce 3rd rounder.  Who knows?  

 

Edited April 7, 2019 by Inigo Montoya